Farage Beats A Bin | Novara Live

Welcome to Navara Live. Once again, not live because of the weather. Now, if any of you are thinking, why have we not sorted this out by now? Um, I mean, it's a reasonable question, but I will say we are moving to a brand new air conditioned studio. So, this will get sorted. Um, and from later this year, we're going to just have a brilliant setup. That's all thanks to the kind supporters of Navara Media. Um, if you are a supporter, thank you so much. You make all of this possible. you especially make our new studio possible. Um, if you aren't a supporter yet, you can sign up at navarmedia.com/support. So, what are we going to talk about today from my living room? Well, of course, Nigel Farage reigns victorious over a bin. Not much of a victory. Um we will also um be discussing of course climate change and specifically Ed Milliband um coming out in a much more noisy fashion than his boss Andy Burnham to say that climate change will be central um to his role as foreign secretary. Um I'm joined by Benka Kmbbe. Um thank you so much for for joining me. Is this the first time we've seen your background? >> I had a different background last time but I've changed it and switched it up you know just to keep things moving. keep things interesting at home. >> My my ideal of course would be for us to be in an air conditioned studio doing this show live as it's supposed to be and but I have to say the consolation is it's the first time that Moose has been able to appear on Navara Media. She's very fed up um sort of lying on the floor because it's the coolest part of the flat but she might sort of come to life at some point during the show. Hopefully not to bark. Of course, this is the outcome that surprised no one. Um, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has beaten Count Binface um to become once again the MP for Clton. Uh, let's look at the results. Turnout was um 44% so fairly low. Um, but Farage did get a little over 22,000 votes, around a thousand more than he did in the 2024 general election. That's actually quite significant. and he got just under 63% of the vote. As I say, of course, his only real competitor was Count Binface. Um, Count Binface uh got just over a quarter of the vote share. He got 9,000 votes. So, Naja Farage increased both the total number of votes and his vote share um from that general election in 2024. Although, as I say, he was only up against a bin. Um, he did do slightly worse than the polls had predicted. So there was a poll from Salvation um during the campaign which put Nigel Farage on 73% and Count Binface on 20%. So Count Binface has overperformed and of course the main parties didn't stand because they didn't want to uh suggest that this was a real bi-election. Nigel Farage resigned to make it happen because he wanted to avoid parliamentary scrutiny for various donations. We'll get to that in a moment because in fact within hours of being returned as Clton's MP, Parliament's watchdog has now reopened its investigation with Farrage potentially facing a suspension and another bi-election um if the committee finds he broke parliamentary rules. Um, of course in question is £5 million in donations from a Thaibased crypto millionaire. I love saying that every time because it's so ridiculous for this to be the scandal. A Thai based crypto millionaire. Not very relatable. Um, last night Farage was asked about that investigation hours before the result was declared. >> Have you won? >> Yes, you have won. Yeah, fairly convincingly. I've managed to beat the establishment candidate. You haven't yet seen off the threat of an inquiry into this gift you had from a crypto billionaire. What's the point of all this? Who cares? Who cares? The voters of Claxton don't care. Look, Labour, Lib Dem, and Conservative canvases have been out for Bimface. You know, they're not going to win. The Uni Party aren't going to win. They will not call a second bi-election here. They'd be stupid to do so. It's just so lovable like the establishment bin the way he calls it like just with the one word as well. They've all been out for bin face. They've all been out for bin face ideal feed bin face. It's just not very impressive. I mean although him saying they'd be mad to call another bi-election. Now you know the one thing you can say for Nigel Farage is that he has increased the number of people voting for him since the last general election. So I think if there were to be another bi-election call, just to remind you how that could happen. So if um the parliamentary standards committee suspends him for um more than 10 days, I think then there can be a recall petition and that would um mean that there would be another bi-election. The fact that Nigel Farage has increased his vote share, I think, suggests he probably would win a second bi-election. Um, and maybe he would be able to sort of make that one look more like it was a genuine sort of two fingers to the establishment because I don't think anyone's impressed by beating count binface if all the other parties were standing. Um, you know, I don't want to say impressive because obviously being very popular in Clton is not the same as being able to win a national general election. Everyone always knew that Nigel Farage was very popular in Clton, but this election does, you know, somewhat reinforce that. Um, of course, this whole bi-election has been an embarrassment for Nigel Farage. Also, in many ways, an embarrassment for for Britain. There have been lots of there's been loads of international interest in this. Actually, this is from Leond. UK farright leader Farage beats Count Binface to win bi-election. This is from ABC. Niga Farage beats Count Binface in widely mocked election. And then Germany Spiegel declared Farage the winner against a talking trash can. All of those associations haven't done much of course for Farage's particular brand outside of the UK. Binface though, I mean, this has been great for him. He's broken records becoming the UK's most successful novelty candidate ever and gaining a larger vote share in this election um than Farage did in his first six parliamentary attempts. the only ways up. Perhaps this was the count's take on that result. >> And I can officially say that I am the winning candidate of the candidates who bothered to turn up for the results. That's right, 9,455 actual votes. Just eight weeks ago in Makerfield, I got 95. That means I've got against Nigel Farage 10,000% more votes than I got against Andy Burnham. What does that tell you? Over 1 in4 people in this constituency would rather have campface as their MP than the leader of reform UK. >> So that was Campinface saying of the candidates who turned up to the count he got the most votes. Um this is key. Nger Farage didn't even want to turn up, right? So, this was supposed to be him sticking up two fingers to the establishment. Now, he found the whole thing so embarrassing that he couldn't even turn up to the count. So, I think that that shows you to what degree this was a good gamble of Niger to call this bi-election. He I I I presume when he called it, he thought that he would be able to stand defiant there. I've beaten the establishment. It turns out he's only beaten Count Bimface and he was too embarrassed to even turn up. Now, there's been some controversy as to exactly why he didn't turn up. Um, lots of different explanations from the reform camp. We'll get on to that later in the show in the second part of the show. Um, because that's been one of the big stories um from the broadcast rounds this morning. Um, back to the bi-election though. So, the Clactton bi-election broke a bunch of records. The ballot issued to voters was the longest ever, um, listing 33 candidates and measuring 3 ft long. a fact that became very visible as polling staff began counting votes last night. It also came in at a cost of more than a quarter of a million pounds to the British taxpayer and on News Night reform councelor Jamie MacGyver um was asked to defend that spend. >> This bi-election is estimated to have cost at least £250,000. He was already elected only 2 years ago. It is a total waste of taxpayers money, isn't it? I what I think is a total waste of taxpayer money is the obsession with using parliamentary time to talk about Nigel Farage in the way that is being discussed at the moment. What really matters here is what the people of Clton think. That is what is important to discuss him. >> Well, don't forget Nigel Parrot has already offered to cover the cost of this bi-election. That's down to the Treasury to sort out, but we do know we have >> Everybody knew that wasn't going to be possible. Well, there's an obvious conflict of interest if a party pays for its own bi-election. I'm sorry to interrupt, but really you everybody knew that wasn't going to be possible. So, that argument doesn't fly, does it? >> Why? Why? Why isn't it why isn't it possible? Is this the learned helplessness that we've got in the United Kingdom that somebody offers to do something quite practical and proper um and all of a sudden it's not possible? It's a conflict of interest, isn't it? >> Bigger problem in our country about protecting democracy. >> I mean, it's obvious that political parties should not pay for elections, right? I think that actually political parties shouldn't be able to spend any money that isn't from the the state. So I would have a system and George Momio talked about it on on the show um a while ago um whereby it wouldn't cost that much actually. You would publicly fund political parties to run their campaigns. So that money is just out of politics altogether. We wouldn't have to have parliamentary sort of committee sessions over which MP took money from which millionaire or billionaire. um would just say you can't take money from anyone. Um a little bit like um in Singapore actually I think where um they're very very strong on any idea of of politicians taking money from private interests because they see it quite rightly um as corrupt. Um the Clapton bi-election um may be far from what Farage hoped for. It wasn't this big defiant stand that he had imagined. Um, but Reform UK still threw a party to celebrate. Um, GB News Christopher Hope was there to capture all the action. >> Uh, this is insane. This is I'm I've been to Glastonbury once in my life. This is a political Glastonbury in the middle of Essics. It's called Farage Fest. I'll just show you around what we're seeing here. There's some marshmallows to be roasted on these fire pits. There's GB News up there. I'm about to see ourselves on that screen. That's a huge 40ft high screen. If you come this way with me, Alex, about over Alex's shoulder, there are about 50 yurts here. People are going to stay the night here, have a sleepover with Farage by all accounts. This is utterly bonkers. Quite unlike any political event I've ever been to. There's Jenga here. If you can see this, Patrick. This is the fire pit. >> Is a little bit like a music festival. Sleepover with Farage. I'm not really sure how that works as a as a political slogan either. Um but a little bit like a music festival. This is probably the strangest bi-election in in in British history. You know how cheered will reform UK be by this result? I >> mean it's quite strange, isn't it? There's a like an odd juaposition between the kind of uh constructed cheeriness of that event that we saw there. This kind of like bi-election Glenbury, is that what they were going for? um versus I think what is actually quite a kind of dower attitude overall that seems to be kind of capturing reform. I mean, my initial thoughts when we first had the news that this bi-election was going to run was I thought it was going to be a big mistake potentially for other parties not to run actually against Nigel Farage because I assumed he'd just kind of have this dominance of the media space that would allow him to basically run quite unopposed without any alternative ideas and I thought that was going to be quite bad and maybe you can make a case that maybe it would have been worth some of the other parties running. Maybe it would have been worth it for for the Greens for example. But it it does actually look like ultimately he has been made to look like a bit of a laughingstock for running against someone who is dressed as a bin. Somebody who is a satirical character who is kind of perfect because he he is there to exemplify the the ridiculousness and the the silliness of our politics. And this was this was like the perfect bi-election for him. You know the the stars aligned I think for for Count Binface. total waste of money, I think, as uh as as you you've highlighted, £250,000, you know, to to run an election that may well be triggered again in several weeks or or or several months time. Yeah, that event is very strange because to me, um Nigel Farage, he's lost his kind of joy deer or whatever it's called. You know, he's lost that thing that I think makes people feel quite attracted to Nigel Farage, feel excited by the project of of reform. You know, for a long time, he was their biggest asset by far. Now he's maybe their Achilles heel because he seems to have this very dower, down and out, poor me, I'm a victim, it's me against the establishment, everybody hates me kind of attitude. But I actually think it's getting quite a few people's backs up, including I think uh some reform voters as well. So it's not just eating into aspirational voters that reform might like to capture, but I think it's also eating into their base a little bit as well. The SE allegations, you know, that's not going away anytime soon. And I think that's also had a big big impact on how voters are looking at him. I think we'll probably talk about that a bit more in the latter section. But you know the the the video clip where um a colleague of his is trying to defend the idea that he would Nigel Farage could stump up the money for the bi-election to save the taxpayer £250,000 was absurd. So you're not going to beat the SLE allegations by coming up with so-called practical solutions like conveniently paying for an election when you're also a candidate. That's a glaring conflict of interest. It's very difficult, I think, for anybody to to say is is is is reasonable. Even if you're quite reform pill, even if you're a Toryan, you're you're tempted by voting reform. It's it's quite difficult to say that that doesn't seem like something that would be feeding into the corruption. So, things seem to be really derailing. This has not been Nigel Faraj's best summer. I'm going to guess, you know, things are kind of derailing a lot for reform for lots of different reasons, but this financial scandal, it's it's not going away. This the investigation is going to be re-triggered. It looks like almost immediately now he's an MP again. So, we're just kind of back to square one. Um, and this is really kind of kind of dogging Nigel Farage. He seems to be becoming more and more of a liability now for reform perhaps than he is an asset. >> Well, so where would the £250,000 come from? They're like, "Oh, don't worry. Nigel Farage has offered to pay for it." Via whom? Like, who is he going to offer favors to next? Right. So to to protect democracy, Nigel Farage is willing to find a Thai crypto billionaire who can pay for this election and that should be reassuring to everyone involved. It's not >> there's no finesse about any of this as well. You know that there's a way in which politicians, I think, if they're a bit smart or a bit slicker about this, they can find ways to extract money from donors or from from wealthy individuals in ways that make it look like they're not literally just being handed a suitcase full of cash. But that kind of feels like what we're seeing. It's this kind of cartoonish, very silly almost way of of accepting money that can't be explained by anything else other than a wealthy person just giving you a bunch of money and you looking compromised. And it's very difficult, I think, for lots of people to think that there's anything in the story other than that. >> I think the big winner from this is Andy Bham. I mean, for a couple of reasons. One, when Andy Bernham won his bi-election, it was a genuine risk, right? That the polls were neck andneck. all the other parties stood and you know campaigned hard obviously especially reform um and he won and that was a huge national story because he then became prime minister like Andy Bernham came out of that bi-election looking like not just a winner but sort of heroic almost you know he was the pretender he was coming forward challenging power taking a big personal risk and and absolutely sort of winning by a landslide. Nigel Farage sort of thought, I want some of that, you know, and Andy Bernham, he had this bi-election and everyone sort of was was paying loads of attention to it and everyone was talking about Andy Burnham. Maybe I could have some of that for myself and then he tries and it's just a complete embarrassment. The other reason I think this is a big winner win sorry for Andy Bernham is because you know when someone first becomes a party leader or first becomes prime minister as Bernham has it is in those first few weeks where it's I suppose the story about them gets a little bit set in people's minds and Andy Bernham has been very successful I think at constructing an image of himself. might crumble. You know, it's not necessarily going to stick with him, but the first few weeks he's had have been very very successful, I think, on his terms. You know, he he's popular. People's views of him have actually improved since he became prime minister. And that's because he's been able to determine what are the leading issues on the agenda. You know, is it high streets because he's got this new policy? Um is it energy bills because he's taken VAT off it? He has managed I think very successfully to construct the news narrative and a big reason that's been possible is because Naja Farage's main competitor if you to believe the polls is missing in action. So you know and the summer is normally reform's time to shine in a way because they don't have many MPs so sort of parliament sitting isn't really I suppose their strong point. They don't get to go up against um the prime minister, whoever it is, Karma or Andy Burnham at PMQs. So, they work much better when, you know, they're hosting impromptu press conferences. They're using city season. They're using the time when there isn't that much to talk about for political journalists to set the weather. Last summer or the summer before, I think it was on on crime on crime or or migration. Obviously, there have been small boat crossings this year. They have tried to sort of set the agenda and and talk about migration, but it's been the the quietest summer ever from reform, probably partly because Nigel Farage is fighting this bi-election, which means that Andy Bernham has just had a complete, you know, free reign to set the agenda. And it's it's gone well for him. So, this is potentially, I mean, thank God, but a a historic missed opportunity for reform, is it not, Benze? >> Yeah, it it certainly seems so. And I think you're completely correct about summer normally being their their time. That's that's a time where we do normally get these kind of uh I would say spontaneous I suppose they're quite engineered really but we normally it does seem to be a season where we get more angst and more anger around particular hot button issues that normally are very much playing to reforms politics right I mean they've tried I saw like a video of Leila Cunningham going down the London high street and talking about how migration had ruined the high street um and it didn't seem to be very convincing for example so they're sort of trying to get some of their ideas out there but I think against a competitor like Andy Burn who's very different to K star. There's a conversation to be had about the way in which the left and parties to the left respond to Andy Bernham, but the the corresponding questions, I suppose, also apply to to the right and to reform. Let's be honest, for a long time with Kis Sama, they've had it quite easy. You know, they had it quite easy with a very poor political communicator and someone with a very poor political strategy. They're not dealing with that anymore. Yes, there will be some continuities from the previous government, Karma's government, into Andy Bernham's, I'm sure. Um, it's not going to be a perfect government. Of course, there will be holes to pick and there will be areas for them to exploit, but they're going to have to be more strategic and go back to the drawing board, I think, in terms of how they wish to do that. this drip drip of Andy Bernham sort of Andy Bernham's government bringing out you know small but impactful lowhanging fruit style policies that really with pincers are attacking the kind of cost of living crisis and addressing elements of that you know has been quite smart I think and it's allowed them to kind of dominate over quite a long stretch of period of time um over the over the summer this issue around cost of living which is something that's on everyone's minds and I think reform have struggled apart from maybe the odd spike here and there around migration what happened in the Spanish Moroan border for example which Zia Ysef was very quick to try and exploit they've not really had much traction at all to be quite honest and to be honest with you as well I think Nigel Farage for a long time he also did whilst being a savvy political operator who I think I underestimated I do think he also for a long time did just get a bit of an easier time in the media he was this very entertaining guy who could generate interesting uh very eye-catching stories I think for the media and I think unconsciously or consciously I think the media has enjoyed weed putting Nigel Farage in in the spotlight often in a way that was kind of mutually beneficial or transactional between those two parties. You know, Nigel Farage could give them stories sensationalism. They like that because it meant that it could boost, you know, readership, boost uh readership of their platforms, of their columns. And in return, Nigel Farage got to be splashed everywhere and be, you know, get kind of sucked into the part of the the the the media ecosystem uh uh of of this country in a way that was beneficial for him building a political hedgemony. And that contract or that agreement seems to now be breaking a bit. Um, and it seems that the media is now turning a real eye of scrutiny to Nigel Farage in a way that it is not wishing to to just kind of quietly let go of particularly around the finance scandal stuff. And I don't know if he himself has found a way to operate around that or find a new way around not just having a media that is actually a bit more compliant and quite happy to just uncritically have you on question time every other week or whatever. We're going to come back to this story, the final part of the show, um in particular, the the controversy um over why Nigel Farage didn't turn up to the count. Um many reform politicians have been tying themselves in knots because there have been varying explanations. Um so we'll come back to that for now. Onto our next story. Heat waves and wildfires are on the top of the news agenda at the moment. On Thursday, we saw the hottest day of an already recordbreaking year. It was 38.1 degrees um in Q in West London. Um and these were some of the dramatic scenes uh broadcast into our respective living rooms. Let's just uh bring you back to these live pictures that we are getting from the Sky News helicopter this evening and uh they show um serious fires that have broken out in Ster Bridge in the West Midlands and uh there was a fire um that it involved the golf course there um and several fields there. Um but that fire, as you can see there, has uh um crossed roads and is now um seriously affecting seriously impacting uh residential areas. >> Firefighters were called to this part of Starbridge at about 1:30 yesterday afternoon. And what's really striking when you talk to people who live here is the speed at which the fire took hold. It started off in a field, then blew onto the golf course, which is next to us here, and then the wind changed direction and sent it towards houses down here. Now, we know it's more than 10 houses that have been gutted by the fire that happened here yesterday. People who live here have been telling us it was carnage. Um, that they can't believe something like that happened in this country. And it was more like being in a film. >> Okay, I got to get out of here now. I go. So that's it. That's the house going up. >> That was footage from Sky, the BBC, and social media um of those I mean really apocalyptic looking fires in Stbridge on Thursday. Um now you might have thought scenes like that would put fires front and center of the political agenda. Um, you might have expected that Andy Bernham would use this opportunity to really talk about climate change and the threat it faces to our health, our safety, our living standards. However, um, the new prime minister has been very reluctant to talk about climate change. He doesn't think it fits um, with the messaging that he's trying to put forward um, in his new government. Um, and we aren't the only people to have noticed this silence. Um, today 50 green groups including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have urged Barnum to break his silence on climate change. There is though one key figure in the new government who is speaking from a different script, someone who hasn't decided that climate change are two words that shouldn't be said in public. Um, this is foreign secretary Ed Milliband. >> This isn't normal or this or this. These heat waves are sending us a message. We can all agree that national security is the first responsibility of any government and the climate crisis is now a serious national security threat to the British people. Heat waves, wildfires, droughts are all going to become more common. But the good news is we can act. As foreign secretary, I will work with countries around the world to build a coalition for action. At the United Nations in September, I'll be bringing together foreign ministers to discuss how we respond to this new national security threat. And when countries work together, we can bring down emissions, slow temperature rises, and help people adapt to the warming world. I feel this so deeply. We owe it to future generations to act. Our planet is sending us a warning signal, and we are going to listen. Now, for Ed Milliband, of course, foreign secretary was a bit of a consolation prize. He wanted to be chancellor of the ex-checker, and that was a job he'd been prepping for for years. I think he planned to go into the Treasury and turbocharge Britain's transition to net zero. Um, but can he now as foreign secretary make more of a difference than he could have done as chancellor? Are the opportunities even bigger, even wider? Well, earlier today I spoke to Simon Lewis. He's professor of global change science at UCLA. It's much trickier, I think, to be impactful on the international stage if your government is not performing on the national stage. So, it's going to be tough for Ed Milliband if these two new oil and gas licenses, Rose Bank and Jack Door, get approved, and that could be very soon, then he's going to have a real trouble telling the rest of the world, hey, we need to get our emissions down. If they're also back home granting new licenses for, you know, 25 years worth of new oil and gas emissions >> and and who would that matter to? Because obviously the argument for Jack Door and Roseback I mean there are a number of arguments for it but when it comes to climate people say look Britain's emissions aren't that significant even if they open these new oil and gas plants and it's not as if Xi Jinping really cares what the UK government is doing when it comes to the North Sea. Um I mean do you disagree with that or who what what countries would be influenced let's say by us giving those um to gas and oil fields the go-ahad? So I think we we all know that the uh UN process is is quite bogged down because it is consensus based and real leadership is required and there's a parallel process now with this roadmapped to transition away from fossil fuels had its first conference in Colombia uh this year and Ed could lead that he could provide a real leadership role as a you know middle power country who's has a good track record compared to other countries in terms of climate. You know, officially our emissions since 1990 are 54% down uh by other measures a quarter down. Not enough and uh certainly not in line with 1.5° C, but significantly better than many other countries. So, could provide leadership there, but not if we're giving oil and gas licenses out at home. >> Could you give a bit more context to this treaty? It has been mentioned on the show before, but this is a sort of coalition of the willing, isn't it? Separate from the COP process and for countries who have committed to move away from fossil fuels and I think to not um sort of develop any new fossil fuel sites. >> That's right. There's a frustration in the climate talks that uh things get bogged down by what, for example, Saudi Arabia is is is willing to sign up to which is very very little. So now we all agree that we need to get to net zero emissions as a world and until that happens the climate impacts get more and more. So you know I'm seeing sweltering here in the fifth heat wave in a row in London and that's going to get worse and worse on average until we get to net zero emissions and then it'll stay at that point. And people know what the science is, but there's a bunch of countries that want to get things done and want to lead the transition. And there are some countries that do not want to and actively want to oppose it, particularly United States, Saudi Arabia. So therefore the countries that want to get something done have moved to a parallel process complimentary to it to work out actually how do we do this that's economically feasible and practical and doesn't leave anyone behind >> and what countries are part of that sorry I know the first conference was in Colombia who's who's part of this coalition of winning >> there were 57 countries it was co-led by Colombia and the Netherlands um and then a bunch of countries Europe, bunch of countries from from uh South America, and of course all the small island states are the kind of the major uh groupings. >> We often speak to you sort of at cops, so we're often looking for an expert to talk to at one of the big cops. Um and and you're often there and you're a great speaker, so we get you on. Um so I suppose with that sort of perspective from recent history, what has the UK's role been when it comes to international climate diplomacy? You've been we've been one of the good guys, one of the bad guys, somewhere somewhere in the middle. >> I would say overall one of the good guys on the spectrum. Uh um we obviously had a lot more power and leverage when we were part of the European Union. Now we're a bit isolated uh because we don't have this big group backing behind uh what the United Kingdom is saying. and and very recently we've had much more problematic because we've had big cuts in the aid budget. You know, we're now down to 0.3% of GDP. Uh and uh you know, that's having big impacts because the UK can't or is unwilling to contribute to mitigation to adaptation in particular um and to the loss and damage fund. So that you know these massive impact in small island states that you know just are very very difficult to adapt to. How are we going to pay for that? And we can see that adaptation problem here know we have enormous issues with adaptation of our hospitals of our farming of our landscapes of our homes and who is going to pay for that and how is that going to be paid across the world is a very live live issue and a and a very a very important one. From what you've said so far, it sounds like you're suggesting that, you know, Ed Milliband might have his heart in the right place. He might, you know, I believe he genuinely cares about climate change and he's passionate about this. But the position he's going to have to put forward or the baggage he comes with when he goes to any meeting with a foreign leader or his his counterparts, foreign secretaries of other countries, is that we're a nation that's considering opening new oil and gas fields. Um, we're a nation that's just cut our development budget from 0.7 to 0.5, then to 0.3%. And so, in fact, you know, this is one of the worst situations Britain has ever been in in recent history when it comes to our ability, capacity to pursue climate diplomacy. I would agree with that except Ed Milliband is a very impressive political operator and he's shown that in his previous role uh uh on net zero and climate and before that when he was in government in in 2008. So if someone can do something about that, you know, he has great leverage in the Labour party and in the cabinet to stop these two oil and gas fields and explain the kinds of impacts uh on the UK standing for essentially almost no jobs, no impact on on bills and uh and and very very little income to the Treasury. It doesn't make any sense for these to go ahead on their own terms, never mind with the climate and the international perspective. And then I think on aid the cut to 0.3% was supposed to be temporary. Now, if Ed can get some commitment about how that turns round, that would be very good. And he could also use his considerable leverage to, you know, make the point as he sort of is implicitly saying, what's the real threat here? Is it an invasion by Russia? I mean, currently in the UK at the moment, we've got huge fires. We've got people losing their homes to fire. We've got huge fires in agriculture and natural bits of of the UK. We've got hospitals overheating. We've got train crashes. This is the kind of impact that Russia could only dream of. And it's here now because of climate change. And we're much better investing in reducing emissions and doing the adaptation and changing to electrification and renewable energy to produce that electricity and helping the world go on that direction rather than foring ever more armaments for a much more distant threat than climate change is which which the Russian threat in my opinion it is. It's more distant than this very real very now climate impacts. And so does that mean you think it's smart for in in the video Ed Milliban released yesterday, he's sort of saying, "My commitment is to national security. That's the highest priority of any government. Um, but given my highest priority is national security, that's precisely why I care so much about climate change." Do you think that's the right framing? I mean, you know, at the extreme end, this probably won't happen, but you could imagine him sort of saying, "Well, you've committed to 3% of GDP on defense. Uh maybe if we have a more expansive notion of defense, we can put some of that towards climate investments. I'm not sure if that would get past some of the right-wing newspapers, but I don't know what you think about that. >> Yeah, I'm not sure. I'm not sure would get past, but I I think that um noting that it's a security uh issue for the UK, whether it's food security, whether it's our energy supply security, whether it's our ability to transport things, you know, in these new higher temperatures and under these new climate impacts, then I think, you know, yes, yes, it is a national priority. And that by saying it's national security, that's how you get buyin from senior civil servants, buyin from GCHQ, uh uh buyin from other um you know, other ministries to be able to have the kind of comprehensive approach that's needed to adapt to these ever changing conditions because I think we all just have to remember it's hard to remember that in 10 years time these conditions and these impacts are going to look could unless we do something about both the emissions and adapting to this new world that we've created. >> I want to talk to you I suppose more as a climate scientist now in terms of what we can expect over the coming 12 months cuz as far as I understand um the heat wave we're seeing at the moment is partly well it's largely of course driven by climate change and then also driven by El Nino which is a cyclical natural phenomenon. Um, and also my understanding is that we're we're kind of only in the beginning of the El Nino. So the worst could be yet to come over say the next six or 12 months. So what should we expect over the next 6 or 12 months? What will the rest of this El Nino have in store? >> One correction there is that the current heat waves are not related to El Nino. It's only just getting started. uh you know these these heat waves are driven by more emissions in the atmosphere and then we always have had heat waves but what we're having now is heat waves on top of already much higher temperatures and therefore the spikes that we're seeing are like outside the comfort zone outside the tolerance that UK society was built for we have hospitals that are built for a given temperature range and now we're increasingly going outside of that temperature range and that's the same for all of the infrastructure that's been built up in the UK over the last I mean you know hundreds of years and certainly decades so that it's it's no longer kind of exactly fit for purpose because we're seeing is you know we have a band of of of tolerance and we're now poking outside that band of tolerance uh in terms of the El Nino so it's unclear whether it's going going to be this strongest ever El Nino or not quite. We're still seeing how it's evolving. And the UK is not massively affected by El Nino. It's not a kind of place like uh like California which has like massive changes in weather patterns or Peru uh or East Africa and or or or parts of the Amazon. Uh so what we'll mainly see I think is uh uh huge impact on food production uh because we will have an abnormal weather in many places of the world. So we can expect further food price inflation and we can also expect um more events like this uh typhoon in China where almost a million people were evacuated because they got a third of the year's rain in in in in one day. So we'll just have more unusual extremes and in some places it will be much drier and in some places it will be much wetter. But the impact on the UK is most likely to be um uh via food. And uh 2027 will guaranteed be a record year for global temperatures almost guaranteed because the El will go on top of existing climate change. and um uh and and we'll see uh natural ecosystems temporarily stop absorbing carbon. So we'll see a big increase in the amount of carbon that we put into the atmosphere staying in the atmosphere because of because of the changes in the algo and the essentially the tropics will uh absorb less carbon than it normally does. >> And why is that? I know you're you focus on tropical forests. Um, so I mean maybe you can relate it to that, but why is it that hot weather means that these places won't absorb carbon? Is it because the forest burn down or what's going on there? >> It will be partly Yeah. Um, people will use the dry. It's partly because it's hot but also dry and the places where it's dry then you can convert the forest to other land uses. So some people will uh so cattle ranchers in South America will take that opportunity to clear additional lands to try and consolidate lands for for cattle production for for example. Um and uh higher temperatures mean that um uh respiration costs of plants are higher. So they they are absorbing carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and then releasing it through respiration. And now respiration costs go up uh as the temperatures rise. So um that's the kind of basic basic point. >> So the so that I'm going to put this in really stupid person's sort of language, but the the plant is more the plant is more stressed. It has to work harder. Therefore, it absorbs less carbon. >> Exactly. >> That's a perfect way of putting it. >> I'm happy that you you've reinforced me that that was that was not completely a ridiculous thing to say. Um let's link this up as a final question. um sort of putting aside Rosebank um and and Jack Door and I suppose putting aside the the aid budget because those are both things that Ed Milliban's going to have to negotiate with with with Andy Bham. It's going to sort of be about power struggles within cabinet I suppose purely as foreign secretary. Um what are the things that Ed Milliband can basically do of his own accord? Um just using his intellect and charm I suppose. Um, does it relate to sort of protecting tropical rainforests? I mean, what can he do when he's going and and meeting other global leaders? >> Well, he's already announced that he's you uh UK envoy for the World Bank and that he is personally going to do that job rather than giving it to a junior minister. So that's really important because the World Bank is um under siege from the United States in particular to stop its climate related finance for global south countries. So that is a very important fight internationally that Edan knows about and has put himself in the center of because he can do a lot of good there for the climate debate. Um I think that's one crucial thing and then obviously you know he will be able to provide uh some some leadership because he's very able against Saudi Arabia and the other blockers in the international climate talks because he's got a lot of experience of how to do that and he was uh and he's been quite effective in the past in doing that but it's you know it's limited but it's important that someone does it and someone uh who's very passionate and able can do That was Simon Lewis speaking to me earlier today. Um, and we do have a bit of an update on this story because Andy Burnham has said the words climate change. Um, he Well, I'll do that one again. That was Professor Simon Lewis speaking to me earlier today and we do have an update for you. Um, because Andy Bham has now today said the words climate change. Um, it was on a visit to Sterbridge. >> You know, we have to face up uh to the changing climate. Um, and I think we need a a different debate about that. There's no point denying where we are. We need to face up uh to it. Um, we need more clean energy. Uh, we need to see that transition accelerate. Uh, those are all of the issues that, you know, are now in discussion, but the COBRA meeting earlier this week, I think, has enabled us to mobilize resource today to individuals, uh, to communities and to our fire and rescue services. Uh, and we're very, very grateful to them. So he does still seem pretty reluctant to talk about climate change, right? So it was mentioned briefly he talks about clean energy, but then he's obviously moving on quite quickly. Um now suppose he thinks as as prime minister is visiting people who've just sort of immediately lost their homes. He doesn't want to be seen to be making political points. Now I don't think talking about climate change should be seen as making political point but clearly some people do. Um but yeah just for whatever reason this has now become habitual. He does not want to talk about this. Um, we should say that there has been another update which is um that not only is he discouraging the use of disposable barbecues, he's banning the sale of disposable barbecues um for the time being um while we're still in drought. Um lots of people suggesting it's not really ambitious enough um as a means uh to to I suppose protect us from climate change, but also I mean I'm definitely not opposed to it. Um, disposable barbecues when we're in a drought do seem like an unnecessary risk. Um, obviously I'd advise everyone when you're out this weekend, don't start any unnecessary well, don't start any fires, necessary or unnecessary. Have a picnic instead. Normally, when a candidate stands an election, they appear at the count. So, you you attend. If you win, you get to make a lovely speech saying what you'll do for your constituents, thanking the people who've canvased for you. That should be your moment. um to take the limelight, I suppose. Well, not Nigel Farage. He was conspicuously absent from the lineup of candidates on Friday morning at the Clctton count. So, why why didn't he attend? Well, speaking um to the so-called Farage Fest hours before the result was announced, Farage had this to say. And I'm sad to say that after 33 years of being a candidate in active politics, I've been advised tonight by Essex Police >> that there is an organized campaign to disrupt and degrade the result that will take place in a few hours time. And once again, it shows you >> the sheer intolerance, >> the sheer loss of fundamental democratic principles >> that those that went before us fought in world wars >> to fight for and preserve. >> And this shows you why the battle that we're engaged upon in this in in in in this great party, in this great movement of ours, is to get this country back to the values that it needs to be. AND SO I I regret to say, and by the way, I'm not scared of these people. Far from it. >> But I'm damned if I'm going to stand on a stage >> having won a resounding victory, a ringing endorsement of all that I've tried to fight for and you've tried to fight for and be demeaned and humiliated by nobody's. And I will not sadly be attending the count. That was Niger Farage saying supposed threats to disrupt his candidacy would undermine uh the freedoms we won in the Second World War. Now, of course, it's unclear whose side Nigel Farage would have fought for in the Second World War. Um schoolmates of his have said that he said Hitler was right. Now, of course, he's denied those claims, but um more than one person who went to school with Nigel Farage suggested um that he was a very far-right racist young child. Um you can judge um how much he seems to have changed over the course of his life. Um what are the facts of the matter though? The statement was very clear there. Um Farage says that ex Essex police sorry had warned him that there could be an attempt to disrupt the announcement of the winner and that he decided not to turn up because he didn't want to be humiliated. Um over the course of the night though that story began to shift um going from a risk of disruption to a full-on security threat. Um, a little later, GBN News reported this. >> An official spokesman for the Reform Party said Essex Police advised Nigel not to attend the account tonight due to a credible threat against him. I'll repeat that. Essex police advised Nigel not to attend the count tonight due to a credible thread threat against him. >> There was a problem though. Not a single media outlet was able to verify that claim. Um, Sky News reported the contrary shortly afterwards. >> Well, you recall a short time ago we had a statement for Reform UK saying that there'd been a Essex police had told uh the Reform UK about a credible threat uh to Mr. Farage. Well, we now understand uh that Essex police has not advised any of the candidates and remember there are 34 uh that they should not attend uh the count. Uh so that does appear to contradict what reform UK are are saying. >> But the story from reform politicians kept changing. This is how Richard Ty explained Nigel Farage's absence from the camp. >> Why was Mr. Farage not at the count last night or the early hours of this morning? >> Because his security team were very concerned about a credible threat to his security. And with the greatest of respect, I don't think anybody should have the tmerity to question our judgments and our security team's judgment about security and safety. >> This appears also to be at odds because we heard Mr. Faraj said he would not be attending because he didn't want it to be demeaned and humiliated. So that's nothing to do with his safety. That's he doesn't want to stand next to someone dressed as a dustpin. >> Nigel has just won an outstanding victory. He's got V voters in Clton have said we want more Nigel, not less Nigel. >> Is it because he didn't want to be demeaned and humiliated as he said or you're now telling that is his security team who overrode Essex police? Which is it? >> I've just told you. I'm delighted to tell you again. I trust the judgment of Nigel's security team above everybody else. >> So his suggestion he would be demeaned and humiliated is nonsensical. If you're going to ask me a question, do me the courtesy of letting me answer it. I've just told you. Let's trust Nigel's security team to keep him safe, secure, and alive. >> Why did he say he would feel demeaned or humiliated in attending then? >> That's got nothing to do with the security point. They are >> No. No. But why did he say that? >> I don't know, Nick. >> So, we're getting a few different stories there. Why didn't Nigel Farage turn up? So far himself said the police warned him there would be disruption and he didn't want to be humiliated by the disruption. Then reform tell GB news and a bunch of other journalists that the police told Nigel Farage not to turn up. Now in the morning Richard Ty says actually it's Nigel Farage's security team who said he shouldn't turn up which is the police right he says we should trust Nigel Farage's security team. Why would we trust anyone involved in this party when the story keeps changing? Right? There's there's a very clear and obvious explanation why Nigel Farage might not want to turn up, which is that it's very embarrassing if you're sort of claiming to be a guy who's standing up to the establishment to have to be standing next to Count Binface and a bunch of novelty candidates, right? It just inherently doesn't look very impressive. Now, I don't know what disruption counts as. I mean, I suppose you got all these novelty candidates and their supporters. Are they going to cheer when Niger wins instead of cheering? I don't know. Right. He might find that humiliating. That kind of sounds a bit like democracy to me, especially if you've sort of brought about an unnecessary bi-election just so you can try and escape any kind of accountability, right? If there are a few people jeering, you know, I I I don't think that would be a particular concern. But then they have to sort of this lie just keeps getting exaggerated and exaggerated until the police told them not to turn up which would by the way that would be really worrying for democracy if the police were telling candidates that it was too dangerous for them to turn up but that didn't happen right that was a postfacto explanation which they then have to walk down to saying Nigel Farage's security team said he shouldn't appear obviously there's also there's no evidence that his security team did say that right seems like it might well have been a political decision not to turn up and you know it it turned out that they couldn't lie about the police telling him not to turn up because the police are an independent organization who can correct journalists whereas I don't think you're going to find Naja Farage's security team telling any journalist actually we didn't tell him not to turn up because then they get fired right so it it makes more sense it's easier it's less high risk to say it was this group of people who by the way we also happen to employ um and who aren't going to say anything that contradicts what we say it was the security team who said don't show up um another reform form MP Lee Anderson was asked about um the alleged security threat on the BBC. >> Well, Nigel said during his speech he said ex he said he'd been told not to turn up because there could have been, you know, a bit of bother there within, you know, inside the uh the county. Also, he's took the advice and I think he's done the right thing and like I say, Charlie, I think his time is better spent saying a massive thank you to the hundreds of people, the thousands of people that's turned up over the past month to help him secure this historic victory. >> Understood. Essics, please. we BBC understands say they didn't advise anyone not to attend. >> Yeah. Well, you know, sometimes some of these police forces that we've been dealing with recently about as honest as you lot at the BBC. >> Okay. So, so you're saying that Essex police that they're they're not telling it how it is when they say that there was no advice >> to your party leader not to attend. >> I've not spoken to Nigel about this. I've not spoken to Essex police. If Nigel gets up on stage and and says that he's been advised not to attend the event, then I believe Nigel above the police and especially above you lot at the BBC. >> So he believes Nigel Farage over the police even though Nigel Faraj's story changed from last night to this morning. Was it the police who advised him? Was it his security team who advised him? The fact that Richard Ties went on LBC and said it was actually Nigel Faraj's security team. That makes it seem quite unlikely actually that it was in fact the police that told Faraj not to attend and then the police lied to journalists for I don't know what reason. But you now have I mean that's supposed to be a socially conservative law and order party who are very clearly um calling the police liars without any reason to do so. I mean I I I know the police are capable of lying. They they've done it before, but it seems like the best explanation of what happened here is that the police definitely did not tell Nigel Farage not to turn up, right? I can imagine the police saying, you know, this is a controversial um bi-election. We can imagine that there might be some jeering or shouting in the crowd. Who knows? Um but I'm pretty sure that they didn't I'm certain I'm 100% certain that they didn't tell Niger not to turn up. That was something that was made up. And now Lee Anderson is saying we should believe the original lie over what the police said. And again, this is supposed to be a socially conservative law and order party, right? But they're causing these just starting these stupid fights with the police force. Um Faraj's failure to turn up to the count appears to have turned off more than a few of the more reform friendly parts of the media. Um Nick Ferrari made this uncomfortable comparison. >> Has the shine come off Reform UK? And I have to say I'm surprised. Has the shine come off Nigel Farage? Now it appears that some hours ago there was the suggestion that they had security concerns that they'd been advised not for Mr. Farage not to attend. Essex police dismissing those suggestions saying that they had a robust police operation and had advised none of the candidates. No candidate had been advised not to attend. Then of course we heard that he felt he might be at the Farage Fest. He might be demeaned and humiliated if he attended. Well, if we come back to the security, I remind you again, Margaret Thatcher 1979 election on the 30th of March. One of her closest political allies, Ary Neve, was murdered by the IRA when they blew up his car in the House of Commons. He really was very very a very dear personal friend and political guide as well. lost his life on the 30th of March. On the 3rd of May that year, so certainly weeks later, Mrs. Thatcher turned despite death threats from the IRA, Mrs. Thatcher turned up in person at the Finch at for a general election for the count of Finchley. And I say again, safety is of supreme importance for every politician. But in the face of known death threats for Mrs. Thatcher and still mourning the loss of her close friend, she turned up for her count. Mr. Farage couldn't for his >> B sec. It does make Nigel Farage look a little bit I suppose dishonest on the one level, but also just quite pathetic, right? So it sounds like maybe maybe there would have been a few people jeering. I mean I'm just this is all just by interpretation by the way. Like maybe it wasn't even that. But it did seem plausible to me that sort of his initial claim that the police said um maybe there could be some disruption cuz what the police have denied is telling anyone not to turn up to the count. So plausible they said there might be disruption but not life-threatening disruption a little bit of embarrassment is explicitly said he didn't want to turn up to be demeaned and Nick Ferrari makes a decent point right which is that you know it was often seen as a uh a real strength of politicians that they were brave in the face of danger and Nigel Farage cowers when the possibility is you know some jeering or mere disruption >> it's all very thin skinned really isn't it which has been a ing theme I think actually with reform for quite some time possibly maybe since that Gorton and Denton bi-election when when um when uh uh what's his name sorry Matt uh Matt lose Matt Gardly lost the election and there was a lot of winging and whining and I remember thinking that that's not very appealing I don't feel like that's the kind of at its kernel or its core why people have come to reform in terms of the kind of overall vibes and the feeling there's a very famous clip actually of Nigel Farage back when he was an MEP and he was making a a speech uh uh in front of his colleagues and I think Tony Blair was there uh this must have been when Tony Blair was still prime minister and Tony Blair kind of slaps him down publicly in front of hundreds of of colleagues of his in in the European Parliament and and Nigel Far just sits there and laughs. He just sits there and grins and it just, you know, it's like water off a duck's back. And that's, as much as I do not like the man, would never vote for his politics. That's something I can definitely understand as being very appealing that you can just kind of take it. There's a resilience to you, which I think has fared him really, really well. And now that just kind of seems to be disintegrating a little bit. Tim Montgomery um a kind of conservative broadcaster and kind of very reform reform pill journalist. I think you know he he was condemning uh today that that action from Nigel Farage saying that there is this agrieved tone I think was the phrase that he used to describe the overall vibe that reform seems to be giving which is putting putting people off to be honest. You know, it's kind of bad vibes and I think it's drowning out possible policy positions and ways in which they could exploit from a policy perspective that the new Burnham government now we're kind of fixated on the fact that these people seem to be a bunch of kind of winging whining people strikes me as very sloppy communications I think as well um around the inconsistencies um with regards to why he didn't turn up to the count that seems wildly kind of contradictory. I'm quite confused as well because in amongst all of this there is of course the 5 million that he supposedly initially got for security. That was the original reason that we were given right for why he had to be given this stoning great amount of cash from our from this Thailand uh based crypto billionaire. And where's that in the picture? You know, if you've got all this money, do you not have the money to then be protected in uh situations where you might be booed and jered a little bit uh by some coordinated members of of the public? you know, it's it's it's really quite strange and and this playbook of, you know, they're not the only people using it. This playbook to whip out security, whether it's personal security of MPs, whether it's national security, I think this playbook that um allows you to kind of get away with a lack of scrutiny under the guise of so-called security concerns, you can kind of sometimes do what whatever you want because that that that shields you from having to reveal more information under so-called kind of safety reasons, right? It's like, well, there's a security issue, but really I can't tell you too much because that would then be compromising, of course, you know, the safety of X, Y, and Zed. Um, and so they're trying to use that as a kind of shield or a bit of a guise to to to get, you know, back off some some of these further questions, but it doesn't really seem to be working. We saw there Nick Ferrari, um, you know, he's no left winger, is he? he wasn't particularly impressed by impressed by that that performance and that that strength that I think people on the right do quite like you know the whole concept of being a strong man in politics kind of emblematic person of the of the right who's able to exemplify strength and power you're not really doing that when you're sort of cowering because you're worried that a few people in the public might be booing and juring you on the stage you should be used to that should mean nothing to you um and so this winging and whining it's it's putting people off I suspect And I mean we we should say again because I do I do think it is worth sort of like reminding people that politicians who are fearful for their safety I think is perfectly reasonable right in you know the past 11 years there have been two MPs who've who've been killed Joe Cox and David Amos and then obviously you know just in the past few weeks um a reform politician Ad Whitaker um was killed now we don't know the motives um because this is still a live case but those will become apparent And I can see why any politician would genuinely be worried um for their safety. And I I actually think we should probably invest more security in looking after them, right? But Niger Farage so clearly here spun a story that it is just a discredit to any politician who does genuinely want the public to care about their safety. Right? Because you know in a way I also feel a bit sorry for politicians because there is a big very you know understandably sort of anti-politics atmosphere in the country. Right? People aren't very sympathetic to politicians when they say, you know, you I'm worried for my safety. You should feel sorry for me. People say, "Oh, I hate you. You're a politician anyway. What's this all about?" If free people in your profession, you know, have been killed recently, I I can see why you would feel worried and also why you would maybe feel that you don't get enough sympathy for it because everyone hates politicians, right? So, I understand that. But if what you then do is make up obvious tall tales about police warning you not to go somewhere when they didn't, then all that does is reinforce this idea that the only reason an MP would ever talk about security issues is to try and evade scrutiny. And I don't actually think that's true. I think that's true in this case, but I don't think that's true in in every situation. Um, you know, and if my loved one was a high-profile MP, I think I would probably worry quite a lot about this kind of thing, right? I think that's perfectly reasonable. But Nigel Farage is doing a disservice to that by I mean just making up stuff and then constantly changing the story as he did by the way with that £5 million which he said was for security. Then he said, "Oh, actually I haven't spent it." Then he said, "Oh, if I wanted to, I could spend it on cars." Like the the whole thing is just so transparently a sham and a con essentially. And Venker, any final thoughts on this before we wrap up? Yeah, I mean just to say I mean this feels like such a silly story in in many respects. Um to be quite honest with you, our politics is dominated by bi-elections now. Every bi-election it feels kind of existentially important apart from maybe perhaps this one because this was a bit a bit silly really. But I mean I think reform are in a real tight spot now where I think they do need to go back to the drawing board and really think about what their positioning is here with regards to lots of things. Andy Bernham's on the scene. You've got Restore flanking you to the right now and then they've got this financial scandal which is dogging them and I don't think is simply going to go away. I think they need to find a way to go beyond this kind of uh almost like permanent state of insurgency rhetoric that they have which is to constantly say that they're the small the little guy um facing up against the big bad establishment. I think they've got to find some other more coherent narrative to help people make sense of precisely why they are so flooded with all this cash and all this money from from wealthy donors and wealthy individuals. You know, Donald Trump gets to say, "I'm a businessman. I do business, so this is actually just me doing business." Very good. Um, and you know, that's not going to convince everyone obviously, but you know, there's a certain cohort of people of which that that applies to. So, I think they do need to go back and and do a bit of a rethink otherwise they really might find themselves on the back foot. Andy Bernham calls an election because there's a window there where his performance is just really strong and he wants to capture that whilst he's strong in the polls and reform could find themselves uh having uh lost a general election, gained more seats perhaps than they have now, but not having the outcome that they would like to have. So, and frankly, I don't wish that that happens. I don't want to see them win obviously. Maybe I shouldn't be giving them tips. Uh but uh but yeah, I I think reform are strategically going to have to do some some big politics thinking. I think uh you know big boy politics thinking uh rather than just carrying on as they are otherwise it's difficult to see how they move beyond this plateau that they are in or possibly even a descent downwards. Let's wrap up there. Book thank you so much um for joining me today. Really do appreciate it. Um it's going to be slightly cooler over the weekend so hopefully you can have a nice relaxing time. >> Thank you so much for having me. >> Uh and thank you guys for watching. Before we go I just want to because I'm so proud of her. I just give you a little shot of my dog looking very fed up, but also quite cute. Um, well, I said I'll take her out for a walk, but she's too hot, so she's probably just going to stay lying there for a little bit longer. Um, thank you for watching Navara Live. Have a fantastic weekend. We'll be back on Monday, um, presumably from the studio for an actual live show. Um, for now, you've been watching Nar Live. Good night.