Video summary
The video argues that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran serves as a strategic opportunity for China to accelerate its rise while America exhausts its resources in an unwinnable war. Rather than viewing this as a traditional Cold War, the speaker describes it as a "hot," secret war driven by economic competition where China benefits from US diplomatic embarrassments and public opinion losses without engaging in direct military costs. This dynamic forces over 150 countries to hedge their investments between American and Chinese models, particularly in technology and governance, signaling the potential end of US imperial dominance similar to the historical loss of control at the Suez Canal. While the US struggles with internal decay, corruption, and political infighting even in Western-backed allies like Ukraine, China leverages its ruthless pragmatism to advance capabilities such as hypersonic missiles and indigenous fighter jets, effectively decoupling from American technological reliance.
Beyond military posturing, the geopolitical landscape is shifting as nations seek cheaper alternatives to US technology in sectors like electric vehicles and telecommunications, which threatens the demand for the US dollar and accelerates a multipolar world order. China's strategy focuses on regional dominance in the South China Sea and utilizing artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation to overcome its demographic decline, whereas the US is portrayed as overregulated and fractured. This technological race extends to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), where China aims to achieve first-mover advantage to control global infrastructure through surprise rather than public saber-rattling, potentially forcing the US into submission before any kinetic invasion occurs. The core distinction lies in national will; China operates with unified determination, while the US faces a critical divide where citizens hedge their bets through gun purchases and foreign investments, leaving the nation vulnerable to authoritarian rivals like Iran, Russia, and China.
To address these existential threats, the speaker emphasizes that the West's decline stems from a loss of self-belief, contrasting it with the strong internal conviction found in China and Islam. He warns that America historically only unites in response to external threats like WWII or 9/11, fearing a future where such unity is required merely for survival rather than proactive growth. In response to this information overload and competitive pressure, he introduces his upcoming book, *Outsmart Everyone*, which applies CIA intelligence methodologies to help individuals navigate complex scenarios. The proposed framework prioritizes influence, power, and security through a "flywheel" of consuming information, testing it with experience, and creating knowledge, specifically utilizing techniques like asking two open-ended questions followed by confirmations to control conversations and extract valuable data effectively. Ultimately, the video concludes that success in this new era depends on focusing resources on empowering the most motivated people rather than trying to assist everyone, ensuring resilience against a rapidly consolidating global power structure.
Read the full video transcript
The last six months of us going to war
with Iran has really been an audit of
American power. What do you think China
is taking away from the results?
>> Oh man, I I feel like China is in its
second big rally.
>> Nobody realizes that China's first
opportunity to really learn from the
United States and benefit from our
errors was the war on terror. It was
when we were in Afghanistan, Iraq for 21
years,
>> pouring money, pouring focus, pouring
policy. And during that 21 years, from
2001 to 2021, China went from being a
country that made plastic widgets to
having the second largest
telecommunication company in the world,
Huawei. They created their own
indigenous fighter jets. They created
their own indigenous uh internet
systems. They wired their they
completely skipped the part of history
where you're supposed to create
landlines to connect houses. They just
evolved right past it. Stealing from
Western
>> um IP and then building their own copies
of it. And not only were they able to
build it all, but they also got into the
export business, pushing it to Latin
America, pushing it to uh Africa,
pushing it across Asia, and of course
even pushing it to the United States.
That's why Trump had to blacklist Huawei
in his first term because we were buying
Chinese telecom over our own indigenous
American telecom even though the Chinese
telecom was a knockoff copy of ours. So
China's been down this road once. They
had 21 years to skip steps up the
evolutionary social geopolitical ladder.
And now with Iran, they're doing it
again 5 years later.
>> What is the exact opportunity though? Is
it watch us fumble the bag? Because I
thought you were going to go somewhere
else in terms of okay, we run out of
missiles. I've got my eye on Taiwan.
This might be a good time to move.
That's actually a really interesting
hypothesis that they're watching
something slightly different. So, the
opportunity of watching us go to war.
What What is that opportunity exactly?
>> It's three different opportunities kind
of rolled into one. So, first they get
to watch us
lose the court of public opinion. M
>> they get to watch us say that democracy
works while we shortcut democracy. They
get to they get to watch us say that
we're the most powerful military in the
world. Nobody should trifle with us and
then get outmaneuvered in the
battlefield by a broke small defunct
country
>> while we're also trying to make friends
with other small broke defunct countries
like North Korea. So they get to see
this embarrassment on a public stage.
That's the first benefit they have. The
second benefit they have is they
actually get to build an alliance with
Iran and with Russia because now they
can both overtly and covertly support
the Iranian continued persistence of
conflict. They are actively helping them
develop new rockets. They are actively
providing them the chemical resources
they need for solid state rockets which
are the most dangerous type of ballistic
rocket. Iran is actually making more
progress towards a long range ballistic
rocket now than they were before the war
>> because of China.
>> Because of China and Russia, China is
giving them precursor chemicals,
precursor uh uh resources, the actual
tools they need to to go into the rocket
while Russia is giving them intellectual
property, design schematics, strategies,
satellite and intelligence support. So,
the whole reason that Iranian drones are
even able to penetrate airspace in the
Middle East is because of Russian
intelligence and Chinese capabilities.
>> Meanwhile, Trump can threaten the whole
world with if you help Iran, we're going
to blacklist you, too. Well, Russia's
already blacklisted, so what do they
care? And China, their big card is I go
ahead and try to blacklist China. Like,
you really think the United States can
survive without China? Go ahead and try
because we don't think you'll actually
pull that trigger. So the second big
benefit to China here is that they get
to exacerbate and continue the burning
of American resources against an Iranian
opponent while simultaneously building
alliances with Iran, building long-term
commitment with Russia, and not spending
any of their own military resources.
They're just spending prec precursor
chemicals, technology, and and resources
that they can trade for oil. And then
the third big benefit that China gets is
as the United States continues to spend
attention, resources, diplomacy,
reputation on a war that we started in
Iran, China's just further validated
about what they want to do in Taiwan.
whether they want to assassinate the
Taiwanese uh prime minister, whether
they want to take it by force, whether
they want to shut it down with a cyber
attack, whether they want to launch
their own economic D-Day, China's no
longer the enemy doing something for the
first time because the United States,
the leader of the free world, has
already done every conniving trick that
that China could ever hope to use. If
you're not uh the US, Russia, China,
Iran, and you're watching all of this
happen, what do you have to lose if
America loses? That's the question I
think 157 countries are asking
themselves. If they're pegged to the US
dollar, like many countries in Latin
America, the dollar is going to be their
first thing that they have to hedge
against. If the dollar starts to lose
value, then the Panameanian currency
loses money and the Argentinian
Argentinian currency loses money.
multiple countries in Africa and Latin
America. As the dollar sinks, so will
they. And as the United States sinks,
the dollar will sink as well because
whoever's winning is going to take a
bigger share of national reserves, a
bigger share of international trade, a
bigger share of investment. So all those
countries that are close to the American
dollar, close to the American uh import
exports, if they're reliant on American
diplomacy, if they're reliant on
American technology, they're all asking
themselves, how do I split my portfolio?
How much Chinese should I buy and how
much American should I sell to be in a
place where I can go either way? But the
whole world knows that there is a shift
in power right now, a shift in
geopolitical and economic and military
might. They just don't know how it's
going to end up. And it certainly
doesn't look good to the United States
that we have this bombastic president
making huge promises that don't seem to
come to light.
>> What do you think the world is watching
for? So, if I'm trying to figure out
what am I going to do with my portfolio
of everything, who I ally myself with,
where I buy things from, who's going to
manufacture what, what is the thing that
they're watching for that tells them
now's the time I can make my decision.
>> Again, I actually think there's three
things that are happening, right? So,
first, I think countries are asking
themselves, how do I want to diversify
my infrastructure for the future? How do
I want to prepare for not only how I
filter my water and how I deliver my
electricity? Do I want to use American
tech or Chinese tech? But they're also
asking themselves, how do I want to
structure my government? Because do I
want to structure a government that is a
democratic government because I want to
be on the US's good side or do I want to
structure a government that's a
strongman government because that's how
I would win the Chinese side. And the
Chinese know that the Trump
administration is much more of a
strongman government than it is a
democratic government. So the first
question countries are asking themselves
is how do I want to invest in my
infrastructure? The second thing is how
do I want to pick my conflict?
>> Because this is the perfect time for any
country in the world that has a beef
with their neighbor. Whether it's
Azerbaijan, whether it's Pakistan,
India, whether it's, you know, Colombia,
Venezuela, any country that wants to
pick a beef with their neighbor right
now, it's a good time to do it. United
States is distracted. So the big
peacekeeper of the world isn't going to
really have much to say. And this is
part of why you see Afghanistan and
Pakistan at it right now. It's why you
see Israel running rampant in the Middle
East right now. You you have this
freedom that you never had before
because we're in this place where I have
for a long time kind of suggested that
we are seeing what World War II looks
like. I was going to say you you have
said here on this show we're already in
the middle of World War II. Uh certainly
unnerving, but yeah, it gets harder to
deny that every day. it becomes very
easy to start putting the pieces
together and look at this stuff. Um in
ter meaning you see how it could
escalate in all the different conflicts.
>> Um what I want to understand though
there's going to be a thing where
they'll look at okay the US pulls out of
the Iran war they declare victory and
that's how uh country watching knows
America is weak. There's going to be
something like that where it's going to
be um when the British Empire sort of
officially fell. Everybody called it the
Suez Canal moment. So once they couldn't
defend the Suez Canal, Egypt took back
control of that, that was when we knew
the British Empire is not what we used
to think it was.
>> This feels like the Suez Canal moment
for me that we can't get control of the
straight of Hormuz. The more pressure we
tried to put on it, then they just
started putting even more pressure on uh
the uh Babel Elmandab Strait. So, it's
like that didn't work. And now, as we um
Bessant has come out and said, "Okay,
we're going to now use economic
sanctions, the likes of which nobody's
ever seen before, and coupled with the
naval blockade of the strait. We got it.
We're going to choke them out. It's done
deal." Um, how do you think that will
look if we Let's run both scenarios.
Scenario one, it actually works and Iran
really does break under the sanctions
and the blockade and then it doesn't
work and Russia keeps using the Caspian
Sea to send things to Iran. Iran just
always has enough of what they need
because we obviously the Caspian Sea is
landlocked so there's no way for the US
military to put a blockade in there. So
we have this leak point. Um give me
those two scenarios. What happens if we
actually break Iran and then what
happens if we clearly just lose grip?
>> We there's no option one. There's no
place where we break Iran.
>> Really,
>> I don't think that's ever going to
happen. I think the only way that Iran
actually ends up changing its government
and becoming a whole different country
is if the United States essentially
gives permission to Israel and Israel
backed by other Arab Gulf coasts or Gulf
states all wage a full-scale war on
Iran. The United States having a
full-scale war with Iran is going to
look almost exactly as the United States
having a full-scale war with Afghanistan
and the Taliban are still in power
there.
>> Right? A religious government is not
something we have very much success
defeating. We might rush, we might put
them into hiding. We might run them
underground. We might just create the
next generation of zealots. But even if
we commit all American forces into
taking Iran, it's going to be like when
we committed all American sources forces
to taking Afghanistan. We've been down
that road. We know it doesn't work for
us. So I don't think option one is
really even a realistic option. That
this place where Iran collapses because
of our action. I don't know that that's
realistic. Especially
>> what do you think keeps him alive? Is it
the the hole in our blockade via the
Caspian Sea or
>> I don't think it's I don't think it's a
logistic
or like tactical anything. I think it is
a strategic and ideological thing that
keeps Iran.
>> But if we're really sanctioning them to
the point where so right now they have
uh just under 100% inflation on um I
think food. They have inflation
basically sort of across the board CPI
style living increase and then they have
food increase and they're both
extraordinarily high. Theoretically
there is a point to which you could push
that where you can't pay your soldiers,
you can't feed all of your civilians.
They I think we end up in a moral
quandry because I think the world will
turn against us if if literally Iranians
are starving. But I can run scenarios in
my head where if we can stop supplies
reaching them from Russia and we can
keep China at bay so that they're not
able to offer material support that we
could choke them out. Um it does seem a
bit unlikely. What is the mechanism by
which it becomes impossible?
>> It's a question of what's probable.
Keeping China at bay. That is an
improbable notion.
>> Okay. So they're going to get involved.
They're going to push.
>> They're already involved. They're
already involved. They are closer to
Iran. They are bigger than we have
insight into. The the iron curtain of
the current day is really American
insight into what's happening in China.
It's just it's it's way outside of what
we have control over. If we
underestimated Iran, just imagine how
much we're underestimating China.
>> Yeah.
>> With their wealth, with their power,
with their reach, with their influence.
So, so China has every reason in the
world to not only help Iran now, but
ramp up help to Iran in the future
because Iran is a giant thorn in the
side of the United States. Iran is a
giant thorn in the side of all of the
Gulf Coast states or all the the the GCC
countries because any of those GCC
countries that's backing the United
States is also feeling threatened by
Iran. the perfect chance for China to
say, "Hey guys, do you really think the
United States can be your long-term
solution to security? Or do you think
you want to partner more with China?
Maybe we should get some of your oil?
Maybe we should get some of your tech.
Maybe you would like some of our
engineers. And all you have to do is
distance yourself from the United
States."
>> So, China has every strategic reason to
support Iran, and Iran knows that.
Russia has every strategic reason to
support Iran, and Iran knows that as
well. And the Iranian people have spent
the last 70 years under oppression.
That's a generation and a half has come
up only knowing the current normal. So
even though people love to say like,
"Oh, look at these pictures of Iran in
the 1950s and the 1960s when you know
before the fall of the sha
>> like yeah that existed but those people
are 80 years old now. They're not war
fighters." And the age that is a war
fighter right now doesn't really believe
that war is an option. And they for sure
they don't
>> internal war
>> internal conflict mounting an uprising
creating a resistance. We can't even
imagine it. But what they've lived
through is walking down the street and
seeing a person in plain clothes pull
out a gun and shoot down another person
in plain clothes and then walk away.
Like because that's the the security
forces in Iran live and hide in everyday
life. So they have no sense of public
trust. In the United States, we still
believe we could actually like meet in a
person's house and plan the downfall of
the government and we would be safe. We
might even believe that we have privacy
laws that protect us having that
meeting.
>> We might believe. Yeah.
>> But that's not what they think in Iran.
The Iran conundrum every day that it
survives
just empowers Iran and degrades the
United States. And that makes all of our
adversaries ensure that this will
continue. We'll get back to the show in
a second, but right now, let's talk
about something that keeps me up at
night. People impersonate me. Fake
emails and fake texts go out to my team
all the time, pretending to be me. Stuff
like, "This is urgent. Click this link.
I need gift cards. Send it over right
now." And in that split second of panic,
someone almost always lets their guard
down. The scam works precisely because
personal information can be bought and
sold. And that's where Incogn comes in.
You authorize them once. They track your
personal data across hundreds of broker
sites and get it removed. When it
reappears, and it will, they take it
down again. Plus, with custom removals,
you can send them any link where your
information shows up and their team will
handle the rest. They can't come after
you with data that they can't find. So,
go to incogn.com/impact
and use code impact for 60% off an
annual plan. Try it risk-free for 30
days. That's n ogn ni.com/impact
and use code impact. Now, let's get back
to the show. Okay, so scenario one's not
really plausible. That's sort of off the
table. Okay, so scenario number two, uh,
we end up losing in a way where anybody
watching this with interest goes, yeah,
America can spin this however they want,
but this really was their Suez Canal
moment. They're not the empire that we
thought they were. They're not the
empire that they thought they were for
sure. And now you're living in a world
where call it 90% of the world's beefs
could have previously been stopped by
the US just saying don't do that. Uh now
that won't work anymore. Now we actually
have to fight every fight if we want to
stop somebody from doing something that
may be economic but we still have to
exert like a level of force that we
previously wouldn't have been able to.
And we're seeing now the cracks in that.
Who wins? Who loses in that scenario?
>> I want to answer it two ways. The first
way I want to answer it is what if our
Suez Canal moment was Afghanistan? O,
>> not Iran because we haven't had much
success since the downfall of
Afghanistan outside of the illegal
rendering of the president of Venezuela,
>> right? We haven't really done much to
succeed anywhere else. We didn't shut
down drug cartels. We haven't cut off
fentinol. We haven't degraded Chinese
power. We haven't prevented Ukraine from
falling to Russia yet. If anything,
Russia's back on the offensive, more
fighting in the last 5 months than
happened in the previous four years. So
we're not really showing a lot of
success in anything since we invaded
Afghanistan in 2001. So perhaps our Suez
Canal moment has already happened. But
the second way to answer that is if the
Suez Canal moment is happening now,
we're going to see a reaction from the
world that's not that different than the
reaction that we've seen in the last
four years. Allies don't believe in the
United States coming to help them
anymore. questions about our ambiguous
policies like our ambiguous policy about
Taiwan. Those questions are now no
longer people no longer assume that that
ambiguity is strategic ambiguity. They
now believe it's political CYA ambiguity
so that we can kind of choose what we
do. We can decide later on. People are
not rushing to invest in the United
States. People are not rushing to gain
access to the United States. We've had
an immigration crackdown that makes
people feel like they're not welcome
here. We've had a crackdown on uh
American uh freedoms, American
transparency, American uh the justice
system. Even Americans are predominantly
growing dissatisfied with the United
States. We have the largest exodus of
wealth that we've ever seen. We have uh
persistent issues in our labor market
with inflation, with uh with job
openings, and on top of it, you layer in
AI. So, a giant technological
disruption.
In addition to a self-imposed military
disruption that's on the tail end of a
political disruption that that has been
going on since we haven't been able to
hold a president for longer than four
years to me that says multipolar world.
China's going to take its place. How
does this play out? Is it China makes a
move on Taiwan, it forces the issue, and
now the US either um makes a move or
they completely back off and retreat to
their hemisphere um or something else?
This the step-by-step order of how
things are going to play out is
difficult to predict.
There are certain
anchor points that seem like they have
to happen. The brinksmanship is going to
happen in Iran. Will China help Iran or
will China not help Iran in the face of
economic D-Day as dictated by Donald
Trump? Because Donald Trump is saying
anybody who helps Iran is cut off
completely.
>> China's already said, "We're going to be
dismissive of that. We will not
acknowledge your sanctions at all."
Literally on camera.
>> So now, now that means that China is
learning from situations like what
happened in Greenland when Greenland
didn't back down from all of Trump's
threats. when Mexico didn't back down
from all of Trump's threats, when Canada
didn't back down from all of Trump's
threats. Trump has been successful only
in as much as he makes a threat and
people break. But when he makes a threat
and people stand up and resist, what we
found is that often times the White
House changes their policy drastically,
leaves no explanation. So now China's
just doing the same thing. So, if
economic D-Day isn't really following uh
they don't really follow through with
it, then that brinksmanship that's
coming from China is sending them a
message that they can exacerbate this.
So, we're going to see brinksmanship in
Iran. We're already seeing it. We should
expect to see brinksmanship in Taiwan.
Whether that is full-on military
brinksmanship, whether that's diplomatic
brinksmanship, whether that's policy
brinksmanship, China doesn't want to go
to war. They understand from watching us
that war is expensive. War costs lives.
It costs reputation. There's a small
boost to the economy and a wartime
economy, but not a long-term benefit
from it. So, China wants to avoid allout
war. But does that mean they will avoid
a skirmish? Not necessarily. Does that
mean they'll they won't use naval
resources? Not necessarily. They might
like a small controlled uh military
action similar to what the United States
did in Iran, but they're not going to
carry out a fullscale invasion. I've
never suggested that. I don't think
it'll happen. It'll be more like what
happened in in Hong Kong when they
changed the policy and then had police
action that was violent. So, we should
expect to see something in Taiwan. We
should also absolutely expect to see
something between Russia and Ukraine.
The fact that Russia and Ukraine is not
top of mind to people right now to me is
not only mindblowing, but it's
indicative of the lesson that China is
learning right now in the world. It was
a complete violation of Ukrainian
sovereignty. The entire Western world
promised support. There was a flood of
modern-day technology and the
orchestration of a counterattack, a
counteroffensive in the summer of 2023
that surprised the world. People thought
Ukraine was going to win. PE, some
people still think Ukraine is going to
win. I think they've got a shot. Don't
you? If they have a shot, it is a
fleeting shot. And I mean to negotiate,
I don't think they're going to win a
military conflict. But with what they've
been doing with the drones hurting the
actual infrastructure of Russia feels
like and maybe I'm just in a algorithmic
bubble and so I'm not seeing everything
cuz I am surprised to hear you say that
Russia is now back on the offensive. My
read has been that Ukraine is on the
offensive.
>> They're both on the I mean they're both
claiming the offensive.
>> The big difference is questions of
corruption have finally become
mainstream inside Ukraine.
>> Really? And that was something that I I
when we talked three years ago, I was
like, Ukraine's a corrupt country. Not a
democracy. It's not a fight for the
defense of democracy in Ukraine. It is a
corrupt [ __ ] satellite country of
Russia. People didn't believe it until
about two years later when all the
corruption and the loss of trillions of
US dollars became transparent to people.
>> So, how or why are they fighting so
hard? Because you're not going to get a
country that doesn't believe in itself
to put up the resistance to Russia that
they're putting up. We're not saying
Ukraine doesn't believe in itself,
>> but you said they're a satellite country
of Russia.
>> Yeah. Like they they are a country that
modeled itself off of Russia. Like their
corruption is Russian corruption. Their
culture is Russian culture
>> by design, not affiliation.
>> Correct. Got it. Correct. They wanted to
be part of NATO,
>> but they still wanted to be able to
steal money from, you know, in the back
door. So now what you have is Zillinsky
facing off against his own former
defense minister
who's accusing Zalinsky of no longer
being fit to lead and demanding
elections in the middle of a wartime
scenario. And Zalinsky is saying that I
would love to not be president but I
have to be president because the country
needs me and and Fedorov saying you
shouldn't be the leader. This country
has been going through incredible
corruption. We've lost more resources in
this war under your inner circle because
you guys have been stealing money and
pilfering from the Ukrainian people. And
no matter how this war ends up, you're
going to be living up living large on
some island somewhere as the hero of
Ukraine. It's like no, we need to change
this whole foundation. And of course,
Russia wants to see that internal
political debate inside Ukraine. And the
Western world is wondering, is Ukraine
more democratic now than it was before
or is it just another dictatorship?
They've been accused of uh of human
rights violations because they made it
impossible for people for men of
fighting age to leave. As much as Russia
is accused of terrorist acts attacking
civilian infrastructure in Ukraine,
Ukraine's targets in Russia are
predominantly civilian targets. oil
refineries, logistical supply hubs,
airports. They're military tools that
use those airports and military tools
that use the electric grid and and
military tools that use the oil. But the
whole reason that Ukraine's attacking
the oil capability of Russia is to hit
them economically. And so when Russia
attacks the energy grid, attacks
dormitories, attacks uh heating supply
centers and exchanges in Russ in
Ukraine, Ukraine says that that's a
violation, but they're both doing the
same thing, which makes this whole thing
a mess for the criminal court when it's
all done. You said you were mind-blown
that people aren't paying attention to
it. Uh, as somebody who covers this
routinely, um, I'm surprised to hear you
say that you're surprised that people
aren't paying attention just because it
doesn't seem to have the implications
that the US Iran war has. So, what are
we missing? If we look at it, we are
certainly aware of it, but we're not
giving it the credence that we give to
US versus Iran. What we're missing is
that Russia's success or failure in
Ukraine becomes the springboard for
American success or failure in Iran,
Chinese success or failure against
Taiwan, and essentially what the next 50
years of military conflict looks like
worldwide. If Ukraine defeats an
overwhelmingly powerful force that is
well regarded around the world as being
corrupt, violent,
uh, anti-freedom,
uh, oppressive. If Ukraine can win, that
gives hope worldwide that the little guy
can still win, that democratic
principles win out, that that just cause
defeats villain. That's hope. And and
hope is what created our country, right?
The hope that a small ragtag group of
revolutionaries could take down the
largest superpower in the world at the
time during the Revolutionary War.
That's what happened in the United
States. That became the story of a
century. Everybody believed in the
United States and the United States, the
American dream and the vision. So if
Ukraine wins, that becomes part of what
rallies Taiwan and part of what, you
know, makes people believe in the just
cause of the United States and democracy
over places like uh like Iran. But if
Russia wins, if if people give up on
Ukraine, that's essentially analogous to
people giving up on the democratic
dream. And it's supercharges the idea of
a strongman government. So now all of
those governments that are teetering in
Latin America, Central America, Africa,
uh, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia,
all those governments that are teetering
right now between are we democratic, are
we strongman, are we dictatorship, are
we fair election, they're all going to
fall in line with whatever the
predominant promise is of the world. We
just have so much successful strongman
activity right now. Netanyahu, corrupt
politician, strongman leader. Zalinski,
corrupt politician, strongman leader.
Trump, corrupt politician, strong man
leader. Uh Xiinping, corrupt politician.
We don't know because China keeps saying
that they're attacking corruption and
Xiinping is above all that.
>> So now they're the only country in the
world that we actually believe from a
consistent media point may not
that they're not corrupt. believe that
the the strong man leader is doing what
he believes is best for the country.
>> Because I'm uh obsessed with Chinese
history, especially recent history, and
understanding everything they went
through with Mao and the reforms that
coming out of it and how you're seeing
almost a a U-turn background towards Mao
on behalf of Xi Jinping. Um, I'm way
less likely to believe that the guy
putting people in concentration camps
and the guy purging people in his own
military, uh, and the guy making Jack Ma
disappear and get re-educated,
uh, that he's not corrupt. Uh and
certainly I don't buy that he is
accurate in what is good for his country
because anybody that believes hey I see
things so clearly um that I can just run
this all by fiat. The very thing that I
think America proved and I do want to
talk later about whether America has any
remaining moral authority but um the
very thing that made America the richest
nation on earth was we were the only
government that understood that man
tends towards tyranny. And so we have to
build a system that protects us from the
men who may start out with good
intentions but inevitably begin to
believe, well, I know what's best, so
I'm just going to do this really bad
thing, but it's all for the sake of the
country. Uh, and that impulse, that
knowing that that's what people do is
the very thing that we have to protect
against. Man, sometimes I feel like I'm
out of step with the world and it is so
shocking to me. Um, but when I look at
Xihinping, all I see is the glaring flaw
of authoritarianism that when it breaks,
it breaks so devastatingly that you you
just can't do it. It it would be the way
that I feel looking at China is the way
that I would feel if there was an F1
driver who stood on the back of his car
and like had Harley bars and no helmet
and was just driving the car. And if
he's out front, I'm still like, "Guys,
if somebody nicks one of his tires or
the wind, you know, hits the spoiler
just wrong, this guy's dead."
>> Now, layer in American ideology on top
of that. And what if he doesn't get
nicked? What if he becomes the one that
crosses the finish line for the first
time ever in an F1 racer?
>> And in many ways, they have.
>> And that's what I'm saying. like
>> I don't think you're I don't I would
never dream of saying that you're out of
step with the truth.
>> My question is how many Americans do you
think are paying the kind of attention
that you're paying? How many Americans
are using the rubric you're using? And
that's just Americans. How many
Zimbabweans? How many Thai? How many
Japanese? How many Vietnamese? How many
Mexican or Uruguayan? How many of them
do you think are as attentive and
analytical as you are?
>> And now all of a sudden you start to
realize that China doesn't make the
headlines for corruption.
>> China makes the headlines for the new
giant modern-day torpedo submarine that
they created, the brand new aircraft
carrier that they launched, the well the
negotiation that they're trying to close
between uh Palestine and Israel. That's
what people talk about when they talk
about China. They don't talk about
Xiinping's political issues. They talk
about American political issues and
Israeli political issues and Putin's
political issues. They don't talk about
They talk about the economic concerns,
but they talk about the economic
concerns and they can't resist also
talking about how they're still growing
at almost 5%.
>> Yeah. So, in a world of bad news,
the best news stories are coming from
China, from a state controlled media
agency and a very controlled narrative.
I'm not saying for a second that I
believe Xiinping isn't corrupt.
>> Sure.
>> But what I'm saying is the messaging has
been so shaped and sculpted that when it
reaches us, what reaches us is pretty
heavily sculpted in a favorable fashion
compared to what we're reading about our
own domestic policies.
And that's for me that's
going to be more successful in today's
world than the alternative. The
alternative being mass misinformation,
disinformation and political unrest. So
that's why does China take the approach
that they take? And of course Xiinping
is turning the whole country back
towards Mao. Xiinping is a princling,
meaning he is the descendant of one of
Mao's inner circles. That's what the
entire CCP is built on is this idea that
princlings from the original families
were the ones that were groomed to take
power. So who do you think they're
grooming to take power next is the same
sort of ideology. But what's really
[ __ ] up, man, is if it works,
if they cross the finish line with
monkey bars on an F1 racer, that's going
to become the new dream for the future.
>> The American dream.
>> Yeah.
>> The red dream. I I am old enough to
remember when the world was basically
having a debate whether we were going to
be communist or we were going to be
democratic and uh democracy ended up
winning and it was a great time. Man,
the '9s were special. The '8s were
special. It was really incredible. I had
never thought that we're now reasking
that question
>> and that we are once again the the world
is once again sitting on the sidelines
watching the two behemoths go headtohead
and it is a larger question of who am I
going to emulate or who am I going to um
try to flatter by mimicking.
>> Yeah.
>> And that is deeply distressing. Okay.
Okay.
>> The reason just one last thought or one
additional thought. The the reason that
communism lost to democracy in 1991
because in the 80s it was still an open
question.
>> Yeah.
>> Was because of the fall of the Berlin
Wall because in an arms race where
everybody was racing to grow their
military capability, grow their
space-based resources, etc. One person
got outpaced. But they were largely
operating in vacuums alone.
That's not the kind of race we're in
right now. We're not in a a tech race.
We're not in a military race. Not like
it was in the 80s. Now we're in this
race for long-term resource access.
We're not just trying to build different
weapons behind closed doors. We're
actively creating weapons and giving
them to other active conflict countries
to test them in the field to actually
test their success and to show the
opponent exactly what we've been
developing. Whereas the Cold War was all
about not showing anybody what you've
been developing. So we're even seeing
kind of the evolution of cold war
conflict, which is why no one's calling
what's happening between the United
States and China a cold war. It's not
cold. If anything, it's warm, it's hot,
it's it's a secret war, not a cold war.
We'll get back to the show in a moment,
but first, let's talk about the thing
your business just can't survive
without. I go live three days a week at
7 a.m. and every morning you guys, you
incredible people out there, show up.
You're there. You're ready. And if my
connection drops in the middle of that
live stream, that moment is gone
forever. You do not get a second take
when it comes to live content. And I
know a lot of you are in the same
position. Whether you're running live
events, processing transactions, or
managing a remote team, your business
depends on staying connected. Not
sometimes, every time. That's why I
trust AT&T Business. They're built for
business owners who can't afford
downtime. AT&T Business is a reliable
provider for small business owners. For
small business month, we celebrate small
businesses by helping them run better.
This means reliable uptime, easy
switching, smart communications.
Impact Theory is powered by AT&T
Business, built to work. Get AT&T
business at business.at.com.
Let's talk about your supplement stack.
I'm sure you've got one. Maybe reishi
for immunity, probiotics for gut health,
something for energy, something else for
focus. Each doing its job in isolation,
adding up to a routine you have follow
on a good day. Nikica from Peak is built
on a totally different principle. one
daily ritual targeting cellular
resilience, metabolic health, mood,
energy, and gut function. It works
because the ingredients are designed to
amplify each other. Fullsp spectrum
reishi with spore powder for cellular
longevity. Fermented poo air tea from
250
trees for metabolic and gut support. I'm
a fan. The system is real and it
promotes calm energy, elevated mood, and
sharper focus, all while doing the
long-term cellular work. Get 20% off at
peaklife.com/impact.
Peak is spelled piqu.com/impact.
And now, let's get back to the show. the
very fact that it's easy to explain what
China is doing and very hard to explain
what the [ __ ] the US is doing. Uh not
that this is better, but that it's just
clearer, it's simpler. Um there's so
much energy for the Chinese model even
here in the US. Now taking your new
framework of saying everybody's on the
sidelines watching this and which one of
these is going to win for the first
time. I'm like oh my god. Like there are
going to be a lot of people that are
going to choose the Chinese model. So
walk me through how that's going to play
out. So when we were going up against
Russia, it was not in my hemisphere. And
so that's what the Cuban missile crisis
was about. It wasn't like Russia wasn't
doing that kind of thing other places.
It just wasn't 90 miles off the coast of
Florida. And so the second it was, it
became all the way to like we we're
really both going to shoot these nukes
at each other. So um this is getting
very very very real. How will that play
out now? China is a long way away. It
feels like a lot of what we did in South
America, Venezuela in particular, was to
boot China out of our hemisphere. Is
that going to be the play where we're
going to try to strongarm everybody in
our hemisphere to get on board with us
and we're going to react violently if
China is trying to be anywhere in our
hemisphere?
>> So, I don't think it's going to be a
geographical battle at all. I think it's
going to be an economic battle because
the United States I can only hope that
our US government has landed on this
conclusion as well that our big
vulnerability is not military. Our big
vulnerability is not geographical. It's
not defense-based. It's economics.
That's our big vulnerability.
We have globalized our economy and we
have made the whole world reliant on
American technology. But we have over
spent our economic poker chips, which is
why Europe is already cutting itself off
of American technology. China cut itself
off of American technology four years
ago, stopped using American social
media, created its own. Stop offering
American software, created its own. So
the so China separated itself already
and showed the world as a test case, you
don't have to belong to American tech.
Because if you belong to American tech,
it's like every Apple user out there. If
you subscribe to Apple, they've got you
in a in a vice.
>> You need to have their phone. You need
to have their computer. You need to you
want every upgrade. You need every
upgrade. And if you try to switch,
switching costs kick in. And now you
might lose all your photos because how
are you going to get those photos from
Apple to Google and there's only one
other option out there. And you've been
told as an Apple user for decades that
everybody else is less secure.
That's what China's playing for right
now. China recognizes that if the United
States loses enough reputation, enough
faith in fairness and democracy and
economic edge or industrial uh
technological edge than all of the other
countries of the world that are
economically depressed because they were
reliant on the dollar. They're going to
look for a cheaper technical alternative
and China's ready. alternatives to
health care and medical technology,
alternatives to surveillance technology
and policing technology, the number one
manufacturer and seller of electric
vehicles worldwide, alternates in
telecommunication. And the only reason
that Panama isn't using China right now
is because Trump said that if they do,
he's going to take away American support
to Panama. So they'll use 30% 28% 15%
Chinese tech as they continue to kind of
turn up the dial of of having a backup
option in case America does collapse.
And the problem for the United States is
that every time 1 10 15 countries
changes their amount of imports 5%. The
collective economic input is huge
because they're not reducing their
reliance on the United States for a $7
trinket. They're reducing their reliance
on the United States for a $5,000
technical tool and they're putting that
$5,000 into something else. And if they
buy and run B, then they don't even have
demand for the US dollar. So the
vulnerability United States is facing
right now is is an economic
vulnerability. And the Chinese
understand that they've already proven
over the war against terror that they
can build a competitor to all Chinese to
all American tech. Now they just have to
build a market that wants it more than
they want American tech.
>> When you look at China, how strong do
you really think they are? And I'll ask
it on two dimensions. Militarily, their
ability to project power beyond just the
South China Sea. And then economically,
>> I believe that China is just as
precarious in their economic position as
the United States is.
>> We're not in a good economic position.
Neither are they. Both countries are
massively in debt. The two countries
leading in national debt right now are
both the United States and China. And we
are both bleeding our national debt
because we are literally racing to build
technology and militaries for a future
potential conflict between each other.
So while it's easy to point fingers at
the real estate market in China, we got
a [ __ ] up real estate market here. And
where it's easy to point at the
overspending in China, we got
overspending here. And it's easy to
point at the at the fiscal
irresponsibility of China. We have the
same thing happening here. So, we really
are two like mirrors looking at each
other. Militarily, the advantage that
the United States has is that we can
project our military force all over the
world and we're experienced in executing
conflict around the world. If we execute
according to what we know to be
effective, Iran's a good example of us
executing outside of what we knew to be
effective. We intentionally pursued a
limited war, a limited conflict, and we
didn't hit our goals. But Maduro is an
example of another limited conflict
where we did arguably hit our goals. The
big difference is that China doesn't
want to project global military power.
They want to project immediate regional
power. The South China Seas is all they
care about. And arguably they have the
dominant position in the South China
Seas. Even if the United States and
China did go to war, nobody's imagining
Chinese vessels attacking the United
States. Everybody's envisioning American
warships off the coast of China. And if
that happens, Chinese hypersonic
missiles get launched from the mainland
and re hell on American ships in the
South China Sea. And when one hypersonic
missile makes successful successful
contact with one aircraft carrier, you
lose an aircraft carrier. But if that
hypersonic missile gets shot down, you
launch another one. China wants conflict
off of its coast because that's where
it's powerful.
>> Sure. The United States never wants
conflict off of its coast, which is why
it projects.
>> Okay. So, precarious economies on both
sides. I will give you that. I think
most people think China's economy is
stronger than it really is.
>> Agreed.
>> Uh declining, but to your earlier point,
they're still clocking in. It's below
expectation, but they're still clocking
in at 4.5%, which is dramatically better
than where we're at. Now, some of the
estimates I've seen say that the 4.5 is
grossly overstated, but I'd still say at
a minimum they're growing faster than we
are, even if they're growing at a
declining rate.
>> Um, also as the manufacturer of the
world, they're us right before and
really right after World War II where we
can manufacture everything. People were
coming to us for everything. Now the
world's starting to globalize away from
them or deglobalize away from them. But
uh that's still the part of their
economy that's still working. It's a
very small part shockingly of their
total economy when you really look at it
by the numbers. Exporting stuff is
relatively small for them as a
percentage of total GDP. Uh but still
that is working. That gives them power
over people namely the US that are
trying to get things like drones from
them having complete control. Um, on the
military side, you're saying, "Okay,
they're spending, they're growing,
they're not trying to project power,
they're trying to draw us into something
close." Um, is the only conflict you see
there, cuz obviously the US, Jesus, do I
pray that they're not so stupid that we
would just out of nowhere preemptively
be like, "We don't like what you're
doing in Iran." And so we roll up on
their shores. I can't fathom it. Even
with Trump, I just cannot fathom that.
But what I can fathom is that Taiwan
forces our hand. Or the one I haven't
heard anybody really talk about is
Japan. And China has said explicitly, we
are not, and if you don't know the
history between Japan and China, homie,
look that one up. The Chinese [ __ ]
hate the Japanese because of the rape of
Nank King and I'm sure a whole host of
atrocities. Um, so when Japan was
imperialist, they went after China in a
big way. just I'll leave it at that for
people that don't know much about it,
but they've said explicitly, we're not
going to let Japan become the Israel of
Asia. And I was like, damn. Uh, so that
is a quick scathing indictment of both
Israel and Japan. So, yeah, how do you
see that playing? For those of you who
don't know what's happening in Japan,
and I know you are not one of those that
don't know, Japan is abandoning its
commitment to not create an offensive
military force.
>> Yeah,
>> they are actively creating their own
central intelligence agency. They have
uh the current prime minister uh melted
the parliament four months ago and had a
whole new parliament built. Japan is
restructuring towards an offensive
military and intention uh intelligence
capability that is domestic and driven
by domestic interests.
Everybody should kind of take note of
that
>> because that means the world order
coming out of World War II where Germany
and Japan were forbidden from having
offensive military capabilities and
became heavily dependent on the United
States for their nuclear and military
umbrella. Both of those countries now in
2026, the German chancellor said that
Germany will grow the largest military
in all of Europe and they will become
the leader of NATO.
>> Every time they've done that, the [ __ ]
gets wild, kids. So strap in.
>> And Japan has said the same thing. We
are no longer going to be yolked under
the American umbrella. We are going to
create our own offensive capability. We
are actively building our own central
intelligence service. So
the sign that the United States has lost
influence in Asia and lost influence in
Germany is empirical as much as it is
contextual.
How much have we really lost? Maybe
that's up for debate. But for sure, we
are not living in the same postw World
War II times that we used to live in.
China
China doesn't want a conflict. And I'll
I'll emphasize and I'll start there.
They don't want a conflict because they
don't want to run the risk of possibly
doing poorly, being seen as less
powerful than they really are. They
watch the paper tiger effect that
happened on Russia when Russia invaded
Ukraine. They watch the paper tiger of
what happened in Iran when the United
States invaded Iran. So, they don't want
that. And that goes back to SunSu, art
of war stuff. You don't want a conflict
if you don't have to have a conflict.
And I think what they are testing right
now is whether or not they can move in
some sort of aggressive way against
Taiwan to bring Taiwan into the fold to
cut off Taiwan's promise of one day
being a free and independent sovereign
nation. And this idea that somehow they
will be an ally to the United States off
the coast of China. China's just trying
to squash that. Japan is going to do
whatever Japan is going to do. And
you're right, China does not want to see
Japan militarize or become a powerful
independent nation. But having just come
from that country,
culturally, Japan's going to need 50
years
>> to actually change the mindset of its
own people. We're talking about a We're
talking about people who for the last 70
years have been yolked into being
America's
like pet kicking like creating American
economic value, following American
policies. Like they are the farthest
thing from a fighting people that I have
seen in a long time. The only country
I've ever seen as passive and reserved
and nervous about their own future is
when I've when I've supported Portugal,
>> former Soviet.
>> Portugal.
>> Yeah. Former Soviet tiny little country.
But in both cases, think about the
histories. Portugal, they explored the
world first. Portugal, the Portuguese
had colonies all over the world. Now
they're just this tiny little country
that nobody talks about that makes wine.
The Japanese were the people that
created the kamicazi pilots. They were
not just an atrocious empire in the
early 1900s, but they had hundreds of
years before that where they were the
the samuris. They were the shinobi. They
were
>> the only ones that could stop the Mongol
invasion. That one's crazy.
>> And and the Japanese
raped Chinese and Koreans just to clean
the bloodlines. Jesus,
>> the chi the [ __ ] Japanese slaughtered
Korean tigers systematically because
they knew the tiger was a cultural
symbol of of power for the Koreans. So
like the Japanese come from a rich
foundation of violent imperial projected
power and now they sit silently on a
subway listening to their own devices
hushing you if you make too much noise.
I don't think China's worried about them
being a threat for the next five
generations or the next three
generations, the next 50 years. So,
China knows if they can squash anything
that happens in Taiwan and cut off the
East from the United States, they'll
just win by having the Japanese buy
Chinese telecom. The same way that
Russia tried to win Europe by having
Europe reliant on Russian energy.
Damn, that is uh I've spent a fair
amount of time doing very novice style
approach to research on Japan, but
enough that I've really gotten a sense
of the truth of the meme that said Japan
any other time in history and it shows
them as like samurai [ __ ] swords
wielding heads being lpped off and Japan
now and it's like Hello Kitty.
>> Uh yeah, it's wild. they what what
culturally happened because I think a
lot of people think oh it was the bomb
and that just sort of tightened them up.
The reality is that they were so
imperialistic and so out over their skis
that when and this was something I
wanted to ask you about China when Japan
actually struck the US it was a moment
of decline it was a moment of
desperation so they don't have many
resources so they were reliant on um the
US the Netherlands maybe the UK I can't
remember who uh but the US and
Netherlands for sure they were getting
all their oil and then uh this was
during World War II two, they realized,
uh-oh, they just signed a deal with um
Germany, and now they're pushing into
China. This is all one big war. We can't
have it. So, we're going to cut them off
from their oil supply. That's why they
attacked.
>> Cuz they were like, "Okay, we've only
got about 6 or nine months of fuel left.
If we don't move now, then we're in
trouble." Now, they knew that it was a
very high-risisk endeavor to attack the
US. We all know how it went. But by the
time they got to that point, there were
already people in Japan that were food
insecure in the extreme. Some would say
some people were starving. Um, they had
trained the whole nation to expect that
you're going to need to embody that same
kamicazi spirit so that we're going to
have one sort of big final bloody battle
to the death. And so the Japanese by the
time they do Pearl Harbor, they've
already given up on the future. There's
no sense of like I as a Japanese person
look into the future and see me raising
kids and all that. All I see is we're
going to fight to the death. And so
there's this book called Embracing
Defeat and it talked about why for Japan
when the bombs dropped there were and
the total surrender was announced. There
was a sense of relief
>> of okay, we don't have to keep doing
this. And what I found interesting in
that story is that oh this wasn't Japan
at the height of its powers and that's
why it moved on the US. This was Japan
that had just been cut off from oil was
already having economic trouble because
they'd overextended themselves by being
so imperialistic. And now their whole
society sees nothing in the future and
that's when we make the move. Now when I
look at China and I see that they're
actually economically on the decline
because I was always looking at this
through the lens of Thusidities trap
>> which is rising power in China,
declining power in the US, peak danger.
But it might be something slightly
different, which is you've got this
nation that has used being on this
upward trajectory suddenly finds itself
with a massive demographic problem
coupled with a massive economic problem.
And now they don't really see their way
back out of the economic problem,
especially as we begin delobizing. And
so now it's like, uh-oh, we're on a
limited time frame here while we still
have the power. Now, given that America
is softening as well, the calculus
starts to get very complicated. But if
it's true that the powers are actually
more likely to attack when they're on
the decline, which is exactly what
Germany did in World War I, exactly what
Imperial Japan did, uh you could say is
exactly what the US did in Iran, you
have a declining power that's like,
uh-oh, we've got a limited window where
we've got to push the advantage. So then
the question becomes, does that actually
increase the likelihood that something
happens in Taiwan that is kinetic?
>> The idea that China is in an economic
decline, that's only true if you compare
their current productivity GDP against
their recent GDP or their goals of GDP.
I don't know that they would say they're
in a decline, especially not compared to
everybody else in the world that's got
growing at less than 2%. So, does the
Chinese government, do the Chinese
people believe that they're in a
decline? Or do they believe that they're
in a a hiccup, a moment of stagnation?
Maybe they even externalize their
problems on us and they're like, "Oh,
the United States has caused all this
war and conflict and COVID created this
issue now where people don't trust
Chinese uh manufacturing because they
think that we were, you know, taking
advantage of all the supply chains."
But do they believe that they're in an
actual moment of decline? You have to
believe you're in decline if you're
going to take a desperate act to prevent
the decline.
>> Second,
>> does China believe that the world is
delobalizing? Or does China believe that
COVID was a was a spontaneous change in
economics and that it's just a matter of
time?
>> Such a great way to say that's [ __ ]
but sure. was was just a matter of time
before all the diversified and expensive
decoupling
consolidates back to single source
supply chains again. Do you really want
to go and have one supply chain from
China and one supply chain from Vietnam
or are you willing to save that 20% and
just get your supply from China? Again,
that is a very Chinese systematic again
SunSu way of thinking about it. Time is
the greatest leveler of all time. So if
you want them to come back to you, all
you have to do is continue to be
present. It's how prostitution works.
It's how espionage works. You're always
available until their time changes. And
China could very well be thinking that.
And then on top of all of that, we talk
about their their demographic issue. To
us, it's a demographic issue. Is it a
demographic issue to them? Do the
Chinese believe that the widespread loss
of their oldest generations
is going to impact them negatively for
the next thousand years? Or do they
believe that it's going to be a very
difficult transition for the next 25
years? But then after that, they're not
going to be focused on being a
manufacturing country anymore. They're
focused on being a high techch
manufacturing country. They need fewer
skilled people to increase the per
capita GDP to make them a first world
superpower. And they're never going to
have that as long as they're carrying
1.6 billion people. So if we let 300
million people just age out, die without
any kind of state sponsored medical
anything, who's going to police it
anyways? They don't even have the
infrastructure in the hinterlands of
China to take care of those people
anyway. There's still people in China
with arched There are people in Japan
that can't stand upright that are
pushing carts at a 90 degree angle
because they spent their whole life in a
rice field. So of course they exist in
China. Are those parents are those
people? Are those children? Are those
the people that they're really worried
about shaping next the next generation's
GDP?
China watched as millions of people died
in a cultural revolution. Why do we
think that they're not willing to just
watch again as as two generations of of
oxygenarians just fade away and the per
capita GDP of the country literally
rises overnight?
Well, so
that's a certainly a very dark picture.
Um it hinges on one thing that brings us
to the most important technology the
world has ever encountered which is AI.
Right now you can look at the world. If
you've got declining demographics as
China does, as the US does, as Japan
does, South Korea does, um your answer
is immigration or AI. Those are your two
options. Um Japan is now starting to run
into uh immigration issues for the first
time basically ever. And they're
certainly hyperallergic to that. So
you're seeing a response very early in
ways that you're only just now seeing in
Europe where they got way farther down
the path. So that's very interesting. Uh
US obviously it ran and will I think go
back to running their own immigration
experiment should the um right get uh
out of office and the left come back in.
Uh certainly with the DSA energy. But
back to AI, AI gives you a chance where
you don't have declining overall GDP
even if you're still willing to let the,
you know, hundreds of millions of people
just phase out and not worry about the
fact that you have a much smaller uh set
of females of childbearing age. So, one
of the questions I don't think Americans
are being honest about because we're now
turning hard against AI. like the
sentiment in both Republicans and
Democrats is falling so fast it's
terrifying. And that is to me crazy that
we're just like abdicating uh the
pursuit of the most important technology
the world has ever seen. So when you
look at China, how important is AI to
them? Are they going to pursue it in a
way that we're just going to give up on
here in the US? Oh,
>> I don't even think that's my opinion.
That's well documented that they are
full speed ahead in AI. They are taking
off the ethical concerns that we have.
All they care about is being able to
have a technology that can massively
increase their productivity,
perform consistently and outpace
American technology. The cover of The
Economist last week, maybe last week,
maybe two weeks ago, was a cover
celebrating Chinese AI development.
Because here's what's fascinating. Not
only is the United States anti- or
ambiguously committed to AI.
>> China has already paired AI with
robotics. The two go hand in hand. The
collegiate governments across the GCC
countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar,
they're all pushing their investments
into AI. Where they used to push their
investments into American real estate,
>> American weapons development, now
they're pushing it into AI, which means
all of that G Coast money, all of that
GCC money is going to Chinese
development and Chinese support to
develop AI capabilities in the Middle
East.
>> Do you have is there any reporting on
that? I haven't seen the percentage of
because I would say a big part of the
reason we went to war with Iran was to
make sure that we could secure the GCC
investments in AI. Um this is the first
time I'm hearing anybody put forward
that a lot of those dollars are now
going to China.
>> Yeah. So one of the best places that I
would look at is is the edge uh what is
it called? The Edge conglomerate. It's
the military conglomerate of the UAE.
UAE which just broke from OPEC. The UAE
that's increasingly independent. the UAE
that just cut off all ties to Iran,
which is a big step because people don't
realize most of UAE's food comes from
Iran.
>> Wow.
>> So, they're finding their food from
somewhere else. And I don't know where
that is, but
>> Edge is a fantastic example of how the
UAE's consolidated all of its high-tech
military infrastructure into one
organization. That one organization is
investing heavily in AI development from
across the world. It's not just the
United States. So I agree the United
States may be trying to secure
investment and I don't know what the
specific breakdown is as it is now. I am
sure that breakdown exists somewhere.
Somebody's done a study who I don't know
but somebody's done a study to see how
much of the technology that's being
purchased and invested in the Middle
East is coming from China versus the
United States.
My point with all of that is China at
the current rate they will outpace us in
AI. If the
>> based on what? just based on their
willingness to invest, develop, grow,
apply, their risk tolerance for applying
AI, their lack of political debate about
AI replacing jobs or anything else to
their to to my admittedly dark, but I
still think uh ethnically
accurate interpretation.
If people die, people die all the time
in China and it gets under reportported
because they just don't have reporting
systems for it like they do in the
United States. But if you're a Chinese
person in Beijing where your parents are
also in Beijing and you don't really
like taking care of them or maybe you
put them on private insurance, you're
not having kids on purpose. The last
thing you're concerned about is a
village full of uneducated, broke,
poverty-stricken people 10 like 2,000
miles away.
>> That's the last thing you're concerned
about. And the Chinese government isn't
concerned about them either because the
Chinese government's like, "Let them
[ __ ] go. We have we have batteries
and renewable energy that we can plug
into a robot on a tractor and replace
the whole farm." That's you can see how
China's putting it all together in a way
that the United States is putting it all
together in a peacemeal way. We we see
renewable energy as separate from
electric vehicles, separate from
robotics, separate from AI. China's like
no, they are all the next step to
replacing people who are a net drain on
the national revenue, replacing them
with a net productive uh capacity on the
GDP national ledger.
It's sad, dude. But I in my time in
China, they are wildly pragmatic. If you
think the Japanese are pragmatic, the
Chinese are 10x.
>> Yeah. Um, that is more the face I was
making is just like that's so ruthlessly
efficient. Uh, yeah. Watching what
they're doing with energy versus what
we're doing with energy is crazy. Just
today on my live show, uh the three of
us were yelling about because that's my
whole beef is this is crazy to me that
the US has overregulated energy
production. We should be letting the
best and the brightest people innovate
on energy. Supply their own energy. Let
Microsoft spin up Three-Mile Island. Let
people do nuclear. Let companies
generate their own energy. Make them
responsible for their own energy. Fine,
whatever. But like let them improve this
system. It's crazy to me that we're just
letting China run away with it. Um, that
is excruciatingly disheartening.
>> Does that sound like a country in
decline?
>> The US?
>> No. The now
>> Oh. Oh. Oh. China. Yeah. So, I think
China has economic woes to be sure. I
think China has belief in themselves
though and that's going to count for a
lot.
>> Um, but before we get to that, I want to
understand what are the consequences if
China gets to AGI before we do?
So advanced general intelligence or
artificial general intelligence is so
far away. I'm not I'm not convinced that
it's something that's imminent. When
anybody gets to AGI, the real question
is going to be what were the what were
the things that we did immediately
before breaking that barrier to help us
protect systems, processes, governance
after that event. What we're doing right
now isn't even close to being able to
hem what's going to happen with advanced
general intell or with artificial
general intelligence. When it happens,
it's going to be literally what did we
do the three months before we broke that
sound barrier. If China gets there first
and if China sets the standard for what
the barriers are, I mean, you're talking
about a complete unknown for sure. It
would be based on completely different
ideological goals, economic goals,
political goals, sociological goals than
what would happen if the United States
did it or any other western country
would do it. Because it's not going to
be how it's not going to be founded in
democracy. It's not going to be founded
in support to populations. It's not
going to be based in the the advancement
of humankind. It's going to be based in
the optimized maximum utility of tools.
And
that then makes the question like if
that's what it's based in, will it ever
become self-aware? And if it does become
self-aware, then it's just a tool. How
will it react? Then this is it's funny
that you mentioned this because just
before we we started talking on camera,
I was telling you about a book that I've
been reading from the 1980s, a book
called Hyperion.
Hyperion, for anybody who's not a super
sci-fi nerd, uh Hyperion was a book from
the 1980s that won a whole slew of
sci-fi awards that is still very well
regarded and virtually unknown as a
mainstream book.
>> When I started reading it, I started
reading it because I wanted to explore
um the discipline that goes into
creating a world. It's a very detailed I
mean, you create a world in the video
game all the time, but it's something
that I don't do very often.
What turned the corner for me when I was
reading the book because it was it's
work to read a book that's
worldbuilding.
But what turned the corner was when they
introduced AI. A book from the 1980s
introduced AI as a very real a very real
question concern worry that we're
talking about right now. It introduced
this idea of AGI in the 1980s in a
sci-fi story about what would humanity
look like in an age beyond AGI.
And that's for me that's what's so
powerful, what makes that book such a
great book. But it also is part of what
makes us have such strong dissenting
points of view in our country right now
about artificial intelligence. We're
worried about AGI. We haven't even given
ourselves permission to generate AI at
the pace that we could.
>> The thing I want to understand, so I
have a very strong opinion that America
needs to win that race
>> that the thing that we need to watch out
for above all else is humanity's
tendency towards tyranny. Uh it's the
one variable that China has not
protected itself against.
>> Um and so I am terrified of a world on
like if we're worried about um
artificial intelligence as a whole bunch
of question marks and we don't even
know. Uh you don't need to look that far
because a authoritarian leader with all
the power in the universe. I mean this
would be like a magic device if it
really artificial general intelligence
is scary because it will get into a
self-recursive improving loop. Um and
the theory is at that point then it will
it's you know a hop skip and a jump to
artificial super intelligence. Once you
get to artificial super intelligence
then it's like okay are we a pet
>> of uh ASI? Are we uh does it have such a
different value system that it doesn't
have any beef? it's perfectly happy to
be a tool for us to use and it just
doesn't care. Doubt it. Um, so that's
where I'm like, okay, hold on. We've got
just one thing to deal with right now,
which is we've got these two systems,
one of which has killed in not too
distant memory 45 million people. Uh, if
your read is anywhere near accurate,
it's perfectly happy to let hundreds of
millions of people die if that's what it
takes to just revamp the economy. Um, I
don't want them winning the race. If
they were to win the AI race, are there
consequences? And if so, what? It's this
is this is what makes it so hard to
answer in any confidence. We can we can
speculate for sure, but you're 100%
right that the Chinese government that's
in power right now is a government that
let 45 million people die in the 70s,
>> 50 years ago.
>> Yeah. This is not ancient history. And
and here we are debating whether or not
they'd be willing to let hundreds of
millions of people die between now and
2050.
Doesn't seem like a stretch to think
that with that in a hundred years they
would let it happen twice and larger
than before and find a way to blame us
for it. Find a way to blame some kind of
external factor for it. Right?
But the idea that artificial
general intelligence getting into a
recursive loop of self-improvement would
somehow be better if it happened for the
United States than if it happened for
China. That's the part where I don't
know that there's enough evidence to
suggest what better actually is. Because
in the United States, it would most
likely be economic. It would almost
guaranteed be used for military
purposes. Hopefully, it would be used
for some kind of efficiency to our in
our energy infrastructure
and our and our technology uh our
technology advantage in the marketplace.
But those are all the same places that
would be used in China as well.
>> But if I told you that they were about
to build a super soldier, would you say,
"Ah, cool. Let them." Or would you say,
"Yeah, we got to build our own super
soldier." Well,
>> I would say that for any country,
though. But here's what's fascinating.
The United States has always been an
imperial power always trying to project
its power abroad. China has largely not
just during the time of Mao but even
before that even under Shi uh uh
Shanghai
was largely a regional insular power
trying to maintain
>> while China was
pretty uh acquisitive in terms of trying
to rule as large of a portion of the
world as they could in their time. So
when so when was that time period?
>> Jesus. The years I wouldn't know.
>> But but it wasn't a it wasn't a
centralized government that was trying
to do it.
>> True. Right. It was a weird sort of
barbarian fifom competing kingdom sort
of world which is exactly what happened
in Europe and with the Native Americans
here in the United States. When you
actually compare governments to
governments,
would China just basically use AGI to
essentially make itself into a super
police state and a super powerful
defensive shell with a capability of
basically projecting economic and
political threats worldwide?
Or would it also create a military
capability so that it could invade the
United States? guaranteed the United
States would weaponize it so that it
could invade China, but we'd never
invade China. It would all be cyber. My
whole thing is I'm worried about cyber
warfare. And if um if we got it, then we
would certainly use it. We would say
we're using it for good purposes, but we
would certainly use it to uh see
anything we wanted to see, control
anything we needed to control. But the
same will be done against us. To me,
this is an arms race. It's best
understood as the race to nuclear. And
just like with nuclear weapons, it's the
proliferation that stops the use because
you have mutually assured assured
destruction. Now, I don't think it would
work like that with AI. I think that
they would literally try to deploy the
AI as fast and furious as they could
>> and you need an AI that's going to stop
those attacks and it becomes like spy
versus spy with the AI versus the AI.
That's my instinct on where this plays
out, which is why you can't just let
like if I'm China, I'm like, I cannot
let the US have this and me not have it,
right? And if we're the US, we can't let
them have it and us not have it. I'm
perfectly happy to live in a world where
they're doing their thing and they're
growing it as fast as they can and
they're making it more efficient and
yep, great. Got it. I totally
understand. My advice to every country
would be to get your own AI. Do not let
anybody else control your access to
literal intelligence. The thing that I'm
reacting against is the US has been
prosperous for so long. They have
completely lost sight of the fact that
one day somebody else could be slapping
you around telling you what to do and it
is going to be absolutely cold comfort
that you felt America had it coming or
whatever weird [ __ ] thing it is that
they think. It's like bro we've got to
be all over this. And just like we had
the Manhattan project to make sure that
we got nuclear weapons first. uh we need
to make sure that we are in pursuit of
this technology first of all because
when used for positive things it is
going to be the single most
transformative technology ever. They're
already now doing it's one cancer it's
just melanoma but they're filing for a
patent for the ability to do um mRNA
vaccines based on the actual tumor that
you have and getting your own body's
immune system to recognize it and go
attack it. Now, that wasn't going to
happen without AI. And if you want to
talk about supercharging that and
getting it to work with all the other
cancers, you're going to need AI. And
the fact that AI can fold proteins so it
can create novel proteins and figure out
drugs and I mean, there's just so many
things and people are but it's going to
increase energy costs. Yeah. because
your dumbass overregulated the energy
industry and didn't allow there to be
continued innovation there like China
has done where their access to energy is
almost a vertical line because they're
putting so much effort into whether it's
coal whether it's uh solar whether it's
nuclear like they're just to your point
to them energy AI technological
superiority cost of living it's all one
thing and man in the We've just got our
heads screwed on backwards. It's crazy.
>> The original question you had was what
happens when somebody breaks through
AGI? And and that's why I it's it's not
going to be limited. It's a recursive
loop. So there might be a cyber attack
that starts an AGI war, assuming that
we're in a race to AGI now, which would
be great to say that we're in a race to
AGI now. It does certainly seem like we
are racing with our shoelaces tied to
together and China's racing with two
separate shoes. But
>> if we're in an AGI race, an AI race with
AGI as the finish line,
>> that way we don't even have to worry
about super intelligence.
>> If that's the race that we're in, once
AGI exists, it's not going to be long
before it says cyber warfare is the
easiest first step, but you still need
boots on the ground. They may not need
to be human boots. Right now it gets to
the point that China has robots and
electric vehicles and renewable energy
it can put on those electric vehicles.
Now you have automated tanks, automated
uh howitzers, automated logistical
supply lines, automated boats that
deliver new weapons, automated
everything that's powered by the sun,
powered by the wind, powered by remote
charging stations that just float in the
sky. Who knows what?
>> But the thing is new technologies are
born on the back of military use.
That's that's where our AI came from. It
all derived from military use cases.
Chinese is going to be doing the same
thing. So whatever breakthrough happens
with AGI is going to happen militarily
first. And only from the successes of
the military experimentation will
secondary use cases be identified. So
invasion doesn't mean human invasion.
Invasion can literally mean what we're
seeing in Ukraine right now, just armies
of drones. Drones that are designed to
do who knows what. I mean, a drone can
fly in, a hand a battalion of drones can
fly in and do all the hard dirty work,
provide all the the uh area command and
control and uh and uh set the perimeter
and just wait until a human being, five
or 10 human beings come in, then a
series of robots can come in and create
a pre-fabricated command center and
everything. So human beings literally
just walk in, sit behind computer
terminals, and now they're in control of
a thousand square miles. All done
because AGI participated in drone, land
combat, naval combat, sea combat,
satellite surveillance, cyber warfare.
It's not one or the other. It's all of
the above. That's exactly how AI is
trying to be rolled out into our
conflict now. War planning, mission
planning, actual munitions on delivery,
etc. So, I appreciate your point on
cyber warfare, but to think that
invasion isn't going to be something
that's part of the equation in the
future.
I think China doesn't want to send a
million men on a ship to the United
States. But if they had an option to one
day in the not tooistant future send
automated boats across the Pacific, they
would
have a harder time imagining what would
spur that, but there would certainly be
the capability if we continue down the
path. So there's no denying that.
>> Do you have a hard time in picturing it
if the United States remains a
superpower?
>> I do. I I agree. As long as there's
parody, there's deterrence. But if China
actually reaches AGI first, it means
that they monetized AI first. It means
that they've they've far superseded our
economic superiority
long before they've ever long before
they would ever send forces to the
United States.
>> It's interesting if I think if they got
to AGI first and then quickly got to I
know you're trying to avoid the ASI
thing, but I think that they're almost
one in the same phenomena.
>> Okay.
uh that the first thing I do is go, "Hey
guys, I've got it." And um here's the
list of demands. Stop doing this. Start
doing that. Be that. And if you acquies,
then all is well. Okay, you didn't do
the first thing. So now I'm going to
show you the blatant power of this.
Boom. Your entire power grid just shut
down. Whatever.
>> Uh turn it back on so you guys can see.
We really can do it. Stop [ __ ]
around. Get in line. I'm way more
worried about that than I am like the
Terminator bots rolling up because
controlling people is hard. And so the
more enemies you make by rolling up and
trying to like shoot things, uh, the
bigger problem you create for yourself
if you just let them know, look, we can
choke you guys out at any time. There's
no point. Why would we want to do that?
Let's just get in line. I have a feeling
it' be something more like that.
>> It's interesting. It's a very western
mindset. The whole idea that they would
announce their capability,
make a threat, wait for acquiescence,
demonstrate that they have the ability.
>> You think they would
>> look at what they did in Hong Kong.
China, China operates completely
different than the United States. They
create a capability. They don't tell
anybody they have that capability. They
deploy that capability because they get
the element of surprise by deploying the
capability, not by announcing the
capability. So, they deployed their
legal capability in Hong Kong. They
deployed their police capability in Hong
Kong. It was all there so that when the
time came to take control of Hong Kong,
it was literally a snap of the fingers
and there were thousands of of police
following legal orders, beating riers in
the streets. So, what's more likely to
me is that they would have AGI. They
wouldn't tell anybody about it. They
would use that AGI selectively to test
their capability in the United States.
Shut down power grids. Don't warn the
United States. Shut down the grid.
>> Turn the grid back on. Okay, now we know
we can do that. Can we attack the the
water supply? Can we attack uh energy uh
um renewable energies? Can we attack
major industry uh tech industries in
California? Can we target just a single
company? Can we shut down Salesforce but
keep Google running? And if they can do
all of that, now they know they have
that power. So then they just launch
that power, shut everything down, and
then the United States is saying,
"Somebody come help us." And then the
Chinese are there. Hey, we just happen
to have drones, robots, and boats that
can bring you food, water, and and
portable gas, energy, whatever. We can
help you. Just like we were the first
ones to create the COVID vaccine, we can
be the first ones to deliver you a
solution to your massive, unexplainable,
unfixable
uh grid shutdown. It doesn't have to be
like, hey, we're sable rattle, saber
rattle, sable rattle. Here come ships
across the ocean with guns and flags and
trumpets. That's an American thing,
right? Here's the president saying,
"We're going to send uh naval war a
naval carrier group to Iran. I'm telling
you now we're doing it. Now every day in
the news, you're seeing new satellite
images on its way." That's a very
American way of carrying out conflict.
>> Yeah. Well said. That's I think a very
good point. Um, okay. So, in this crazy
world, the only thing that's going to
get somebody into the position that they
want is self-belief. They believe that
they can do it. they believe that they
have the mandate whether it's the
mandate from heaven to be the middle
kingdom as China believes about itself
or once when America believed that we
were the shining uh citadel on a hill
and we were the place that had the moral
authority and we were righteous
>> God's grace
>> yes I don't think America America
certainly is fractured maybe there are
some people like me maybe there's a
bunch of us that still believe in
America that um you know are willing to
work hard to try to be the best and you
know really do something in the world.
But I think that a lot of people have
lost faith in America, do not have the
will to stand up for America, don't have
the will to reunite people, any of that.
Um when you look at the will in China
versus the will in America, um do you
see that there's something consequential
there that's going to be deterministic
in this coming conflict between two
great powers? Even the question I think
under underestimates the way the Chinese
think. I don't think they think about
the will. Like they're not worried about
the will of the Chinese people. Their
job is to do this other thing. Like my
job is to manufacture widgets.
>> But are they doing it because they're
afraid or are they doing it because they
really believe like holy hell like we've
really done something. We China.
>> Absolutely they believe that because you
So I'm 46 years old. If I was a 46-y old
Chinese man, then that means from the
day I was born until today, I have seen
the fastest growth in China of all time.
>> Seen the fastest growth of anybody.
>> Yeah.
>> Ever of all time.
>> Yeah. Like I went from I went from
possibly still having a dirt floor to
being the second largest economy in the
world in my lifetime. And I'm still
prime production age.
>> Yeah. So, do I even have an idea that
somehow we're like on the decline? No.
It's like we're still skyrocketing,
guys. We we're being uh there's some
hiccups because of AI and technology.
There's some hiccups because of these
crazy ass white people on the other side
of the ocean who are always starting
wars. Like, there's some hiccups, but
but man, like I am part of the of the
greatest generation.
>> Yeah.
>> We still believe that the greatest
generation's already passed.
>> But what I'm saying about they they may
not think about it, but they have it.
They have the will. They have
self-belief.
>> And I think what America and Europe is
struggling from is they've lost the
belief.
>> And so you've got China believes in
itself. Islam believes in itself. And
now you're getting this like sort of
crazy disruption in the West because we
don't believe in ourselves. We're trying
to go head-to-head with Iran. We're
certainly losing that battle. Uh Europe
is trying to sort of stand up for itself
and say, "Wait, we do have a culture and
it does deserve to be protected." But
they really can't get people excited
about that. And so they keep inviting
people into their country or not kicking
people out of their country who have no
interest in assimilating whatsoever. Uh
and so that strikes me as like if you
were going to say what's the biggest
problem, I'd be like that.
>> I would agree with that. I would agree
with that because you're
and I I I'm not gonna name names,
but when you say that there are
certainly people who believe in the
United States,
I believe most Americans would say, "I
believe in the United States." But then
the next thing you would have to ask
them is, "How are you dividing your
resources to show that belief?" And all
those Americans who bought guns because
they were afraid somebody might try to
steal from them during COVID, which was
a huge spike in Americans,
they actually have a belief that they're
investing in that goes contrary to the
belief of long-term American stability.
And all those people who started moving
some of their investments into foreign
stocks or moving some of their
investments into foreign property. All
those people who bought a second
passport or those people who pursued a
second passport by exercising their
Irish descent, their Italian descent,
their Spanish descent, their Canadian
descent. Like there's a lot of people
out there, tens of thousands of
Americans who are still living in the
United States who would probably say I
believe in the United States. But I'm
hedging my bets. I'm making sure that if
I'm wrong,
then I'm I'm good to go. And that is a
very different belief in America than I
think what we're talking about when we
talk about an innate faith that the
Chinese might have for themselves. They
like you don't hear about Chinese
millionaires trying to leave China. You
hear about British millionaires leaving
the UK, but you don't really hear about
a lot of migration of super wealthy.
>> A little unfair just because China will
capital control the [ __ ] out of you.
they will jackmaw you until the end of
time. But um certainly I do think that
China has from the person who saw
themselves come up from a dirt floor to
one of the most spectacular highrises on
planet earth is going to think yeah this
is pretty special.
>> They probably to a large degree think
that the well the authoritarianism is
working so I don't exactly have a real
big beef. Um so I don't begrudge on
that. I certainly understand all of
that. I'm maybe talking about something
slightly different, which is um so I
certainly got a gun during CO because
[ __ ] was actually getting weird. Uh a
photo of my house was put on the
internet that said um I can't remember
if it said eat the rich or burn the
rich. I think it was burn the rich. So
I'm literally looking out at LA on fire,
seeing my house as the photo where
people are saying that. Uh yeah. So in
that moment, good sense prevailed and I
was like, I'm going to make sure that
I'm protected. My whole thing is that
there is a massive divide in the country
and some people actively hate their own
country.
>> And that to me is when I look at the
anti- AI sentiment, when I look at the
anti- they'll call it billionaire, I'll
call it anti- entrepreneur sentiment.
Uh, when I look at the fact that people
outright say that, and I'm talking
people with American accents, that we've
got to take down empire, they don't say
the empire, we we're in the belly of
empire, we got to take empire down.
Like, that's how they look at America.
That they want to hang the American flag
upside down. That they want to get rid
of borders. That they want to um bring
in migrants illegally, legally, doesn't
matter. make sure that they have the
right to vote, abolish the Senate, get
it just to be a pure um number of people
who vote style democracy. That's where
I'm like, uh oh, like this is when you
have a country that's in that kind of
internal peril. You are at a very weak
point. I won't say that we haven't been
here before. We had an actual civil war,
and we're not in actual civil war right
now. Maybe cold, but we're certainly not
hot. So, America's gone through worse.
But yo, in my lifetime, this is
different. This is a very different
texture,
>> which is a just a fantastic juiposition
about a Chinese person who is your age
and where they stand right now.
>> It's uh you know, I was I was mentioning
to you earlier that one of our first
conversations ever,
I think it was three years ago,
>> the thumbnail was war is coming. And now
here we are in 2026 and there's war in
Israel, there's war in Ukraine, there's
war in Iran. Yeah, we're talking about
when there will be war over Taiwan.
>> People thought I was just
fear-mongering, but yeah,
>> a second conversation that we had maybe
six months after that, the thumbnail was
get out of the United States by 2030.
And now here we are having a
conversation about active people. And
here's what's so fascinating is there
are people inside the United States who
believe they're actually helping the
United States
>> by doing all the things that you just
said by talking about dissolving the
empire and letting in migrants migrants
limits uh legal or illegal and robbing
from the rich and dissolving us the
Senate like those people think they're
helping the United States. So if this is
the change that we've seen in just three
years of conversations between us
>> Yeah. What's the next seven years going
to look like?
>> And what's the next 25 years going to
look like? And I ideally everything
moves at a faster pace. So we shouldn't
be facing 25 years of disarray, but it
25 years of disarray is going to get
concentrated into potentially five or
seven years of disarray.
>> Jesus.
>> I've been saying this for a long time. I
know we talk about it offline, too.
It's not unamerican to think about what
you can do to take care of yourself,
your family, your legacy, your wealth.
That doesn't make you unamerican. That
makes you responsible. What you could
say good sense prevails.
>> Yeah.
>> But the problem is there are always
going to be people out there who say
that if you are preparing for something
else, then you're not a true American.
>> Yeah. And I get that and I think there's
a reasonable argument to be made. But um
my core thesis is if you have people
that are that divided, you're not going
to be able to generate the forward
momentum to go up against Iran, Russia,
China, like you're just not going to be
able to defeat it. And so when I think
back to uh even World War II, the very
first thing that Church Hill had to do
was he had to get everybody to believe
in England. He had to get everybody to
unite to say we are going to stand up
and that's who we are. We're not the
people that back down. And it was giving
people a sense of a reminder of what
their national identity was. And we
would have to do that. And I really
don't want to see us have to go all the
way to somebody having guns pointed at
us before we do it. Um but we really do
have to decide what we stand for, what
we're willing to fight for, what we are
trying to build and create. We have to
start thinking long term. We can't be
thinking in election cycles. We've got
to be quite literally teaching our
children like this is what it means to
be American. And right now we're a long
way from a unified message. I won't say
that there aren't people that are doing
it, but I will say that we're a long way
from a unified message. And that is very
distressing. If I think through the lens
of history,
I'm I am not able to come up with an
example of when we unified that wasn't
at the receiving end of an enemy.
>> Yeah.
>> 9/11 brought us together. I think the
assassination of JFK brought us
together.
>> Yeah.
>> World War II brought us together.
And our enemies have learned that as
long as you don't provoke the dragon,
the dragon essentially just has
indigestion on its own all the time.
>> So it would be a significant departure
from our historical evidence for the
United States to find a way to unify and
do it quickly enough to overcome the
advantage that some of these
authoritarian countries already have.
Yeah, I'm going to take my shot on the
live. I've really started forcing myself
to talk about, okay, what are the
unifying ideas? What should we be
excited about? How should we be
thinking? What should we be telling
kids? It's a drop in a very large ocean,
but I will certainly keep trying. We'll
see what comes of it. Now, that's my
sort of bit of optimism. You have
recently shown some optimism with your
book. What are you hoping that people
will use it for? Because you've gone
I've moved away from personal
development.
>> Uh I really enjoyed it while I was doing
it, but found that
>> it's um well, I mean part of it just I
said what I had to say.
>> Uh and then some of it though was that
getting people to actually make change
is very very hard. It's much easier to
aim at kids and just not let them get
into bad ruts in the first place. But
what do you want people to take away
from the book?
>> So, I have a new book coming out
September 8th. It's called Outsmart
Everyone. And the goal,
>> very bold title, my friend. Very bold.
>> But the goal of the book is basically to
deliver on the title. I want anyone who
reads that book to be able to outsmart
everyone else around them because where
my experience at CIA, where my
experience as an entrepreneur, where my
experience as the first millionaire in
my family line,
>> congratulations, man.
>> Thanks, man. But where my experience has
pointed me is that you can't save
everyone. And the idea that you can help
everyone is an idealistic and beautiful
idea that I grew up with in the 80s and
90s, but it is a completely
artificial
unsubstantiated promise. You can't help
everyone.
>> Not only do you have the people who
don't want to be helped, you have the
people who can't be helped. And you have
the people who will work against any
help you try to give them actively just
because it's help. And I literally can
point to people in my family who fit all
those definitions.
>> Yeah.
>> And I'm also learning as a especially
now that I am in a position where I mean
I just signed paperwork this morning for
a half million line of credit to myself.
>> Whoa. Which is unbelievable to me. It's
unbelievable that I have the assets that
a bank would offer me that in the first
place. I am now in a position where I
don't even have to ask for a loan. I can
just literally take money from myself
that's given to me that paying an an
interest rate. So, I'm paying an
interest rate for the expense of
borrowing money, but I don't actually
have a monthly payment. I don't actually
owe anybody anything. Like, that's a
that this is something I've never
experienced in my life. And this is
common for wealthy people where the rest
of us are stuck taking a $60,000 $60,000
car loan nowadays isn't even crazy to
think about.
>> That's wild.
>> 20 years ago it was a $60,000 car loan
at 8% interest where you have to pay
every month or else risk the forfeite of
your car. I am outside of that forever.
>> My children, as long as I protect my
assets, my children are outside of that
cycle forever.
What I'm learning is that I need to help
the people who are the most motivated to
help themselves because those are the
ones that shape the future for their
country, for their family, for their
industry. Helping everybody, to your
exact point, trying to get everybody
everybody to improve or optimize
themselves is a losing battle. What I
need to do is find the 3% that will
never give up trying. And that's why I
wrote outsmart everyone.
>> And so given the boldness of the title,
like if you were going to TLDDR for
people, how do you actually outsmart
everyone? Like there's a core concept in
the book that I think is very
interesting at a high level, but make it
real for people, which is okay, you're
in a world, there's so much information.
Most of this information is either spin,
uh it's fake, so it's just literally AI.
So, it's hard to figure out what's real,
what's not real. Uh, there's miss uh
information. I'll never grant you mal
information. That one it's just for the
record. MAL is something that's true but
inconvenient. So, I I will not acquies
to MAL. But, uh certainly
misinformation, disinformation, all of
that stuff is real. Uh and so part of
the promise of the book is you can
actually turn that um just actual
massive cacophony of information and
actually make it knowledge. But how like
what what is that transition that you're
walking people through?
>> So TLDDR CIA teaches us that there's a
national security triangle that we use
to identify priorities for national
security. And those priorities for
national security, they align one to one
with priorities for our individual
lives. Influence, power, security.
>> It's the same three things that drive an
individual are the same three things
that keep a country safe. So the
question becomes, how do you maximize
your power, maximize your influence, and
maximize your security?
The way that CIA teaches us to do that
is through a through a flywheel, another
triangle that's about information,
consuming information and testing it
with experience and then from that
experience creating knowledge. Knowledge
being distinctly different than
information because knowledge has gone
through the test of experience and
everybody's experience is different. So
everyone's knowledge based on the same
information is also different. But then
with that knowledge, you go out and
collect new information that you test
with experience and you create new
knowledge. And the person who can go
through that flywheel the fastest is the
person who will outsmart everyone else.
And what's and what's the most powerful
piece of this for me is that CIA also
taught me that because of the way the
brain works, we all want to be
outsmarted.
We want someone else to do all the
mental lifting, all the heavy thinking,
all the planning and engineering, and we
just want the icing. What we don't want
is to feel like we've been outsmarted.
>> That's [ __ ] interesting.
>> So, outsmart everyone teaches you how to
outsmart everyone and how to do it in a
way that they never realize they've been
outsmarted, which just makes them love
you.
>> That's wild. uh a little distressing but
very useful that humans are wired like
that. Give an example from the book of a
just banger that you walk people through
of like okay take this thing you turn it
into this you think about like that and
then deploy it like this to get an
outcome. My favorite section of the book
I teach a concept that CIA taught me
called two questions and a confirmation.
Two questions in a confirmation is
something that we use in the field of
intelligence to collect as much
sensitive information from a target as
possible without ever exposing the
target to to sensitive information about
ourselves. But what I've learned is that
in the civilian world, especially in
business and entrepreneurism, you can do
the same thing with a sales prospect,
with a client, with a competitor, and
you can suck up massive amounts of
information, whether it's marketing data
or competitive data or or getting them
to believe in a sales promise to get
them to close the sale, using the same
two questions in a confirmation. And
this is how it works. I ask you a
question, an open-ended question about
anything, and I let you answer that
open-ended question in whatever way fits
your preferences. I don't try to lead
you on. I don't try to guide you. I
don't try to prime you. I just ask a
question because what's going to happen
is an open-ended question will invite
you to talk about your answer. So, just
for those of you who don't know what an
open-ended versus a close-ended question
is, a close-ended question is something
that you can answer with a sentence or a
single word, right?
>> Did you like dinner? Yes, that's a
close-ended question. How was the movie?
Fine. That's a close-ended question.
>> An open-ended question is, what did you
think of that movie?
How do you like mystery movies?
Something that invites people to talk.
They have to explain their answer. Now,
I've asked one question, open-ended
question. You've given me a response
that is relevant to you and all new
information to me. So now I only have to
ask another open-ended question based on
some part of your response. So I'll ask
you a second open-ended question which
you will respond to again with an
explanation of new information. At that
point in time, you would think that in a
normal conversation, I should start
talking about myself or I should stop
asking questions because it's going to
feel like an interrogation. What I'm
going to do instead is I'm just going to
confirm and repeat back to you something
you already said which makes you feel
heard, makes you feel valid, validated,
makes you feel like I'm really listening
to you. And after I make my confirming
statement, I'm going to ask another
question and I'm going to ask another
one after that and I'm going to confirm
your response after that. And what that
creates is this relationship between us
where I'm in control of the entire
conversation
>> and you're giving me so so much
information about yourself that you
don't even realize you're doing it. And
I'm collecting information about you and
simultaneously making you feel good
about it because you feel confirmed,
validated, listened to, and because I'm
sitting here asking you all these
questions and letting you just talk, you
like being around me. Isn't that wild?
>> So, two questions in a confirmation is
something that I've been teaching for
years. There's a I have a a
centmillionaire client in Orlando that I
taught this to their sales team and they
spiked their sales. I have still have
people from his sales team that write me
to say, "I can't believe how easy this
thing works." Sales people that come off
the street with no sales background and
they literally watch like a 15-minute
video from me and then they go and they
make their first phone call and that's
all they do for the whole phone call and
they close a sale. they'll close a deal,
right? I've had I have people that I
I've taught who are anywhere from
medical professionals to coaching
professionals to psychologists. I've I
just taught this at a uh with a
sensitive client in Denver who's
involved in the grid, energy grid,
>> and I taught them this methodology for
their consultants who consult on the
energy grid. And their consultants were
like mind-blown because one of the
hardest things is for a in an energy
world is to be able to bridge the gap
between the person who provides the
energy and the person who actually
provides the infrastructure for the
energy is all it takes is two questions
and a confirmation and they're like I
can't believe it's this simple to get a
client to listen to me to buy what I'm
trying to get them to buy to to close a
deal to close them on a multi-year
contract. I've been using this my whole
life because I know it works if it can
make someone turn coat against their
country. It can certainly work to get
someone to hand over their credit card.
>> Very, very well said. Where can people
get the book?
>> You can find Outsmart everyone online at
all uh online book sellers. You'll find
it at Barnes & Noble. You'll find it at
Amazon. You'll find it in the UK at all
of the major UK sellers. And if you want
to go to the website uh for the book
itself, you go to outsmart
everyonespy.com.
All the details are going to be in the
description of the video.
>> I love it, man. I really cherish sitting
across from you and talking about this
stuff. So, thank you as always for
taking the time. I appreciate it.
>> Thanks for having me, sir.
>> You got it. All right, everybody. If you
have not already, be sure to subscribe.
And until next time, my friends, be
legendary. Take care. Peace. If you like
this conversation, check out this
episode to learn more. I think America's
gone too far in privatizing everything.
Election campaigns are something that
should be funded 100% by government
money and private donations should be
banned. Not even possible. Set it up in
such a way that you guarantee you can't
buy your