Everything Will Crash in The Next Crash! Even BRK or Value ETFs

Good day fellow investors. We discussed the risks of investing today in a few videos and many of you ask okay what are the alternatives because it's very likely that in the next crash whenever it comes everything crashes value crashes. So let's discuss whether that is true. It is but how much where can you find protection? You ask here global market option ETF diversification emerging market index and then this is crazy. This is the world we are living in. 2x leverage single share ETFs is the sign of the times as the ad for my videos are such holding cash positions. How do you balance that? Let's discuss also a great question here on my research platform. Is Burkshare hate way instead the way to go international? If you buy a good price, will it work? Let's see. The key when it comes to investing is that you look at your personal situation, what are the risks? What are your other investing opportunities? Building a new kitchen, happy wife, happy life, who knows? The key when it comes to investing is that you reach your goal with certainty. You cannot gamble with your retirement, with your money. If you want to check immediately what I'm doing, this is my research platform. You have the link in description below. These are my buys. So, feel free to check that out. When it comes to cash, sitting in cash waiting for a crash is not a bad idea. Some people at a company called it's a textile company Burkshshire had to way something like that they have almost $400 billion in cash they are sitting there in Omaha waiting for a crash they are getting 3.7% on US treasuries you can get a little bit higher if you go to the 10-year Treasury but if interest rates go up then the value of your treasury of your liquidity goes down because you cannot sell it for the full value at par that you paid. So that is the risk and you're getting just a little bit higher. So Warren Buffett is at 3 months, why not stay at 3 months? The thing with cash is that you need to know your needs. If you want certainty, if you want the cash flow, if you can't risk your principle, why not? Will there be inflation? Yes. Is it a risk? Yes. That's life. Government debt, everything potential for more money printing. That's something that you can never know exactly what will happen in the future. I can just tell you immediately I have practically no cash because I can find better investments. We are not Birkshshire. We don't have the size issue. So we are not Birkshshire holding investment company. You are a person investing with kids, house, home, this, that, repairing the car. So you have to find the best return on investment for your investing money and the best use for your life money. That's something key that many people miss because then you can go into value ETFs just here. Vanguard value ETF. It has done okay over the last 15 years, but don't forget it crashed 56% between 2007 and 2009, which is more than the market. And then when I look at the holdings, Micron, Bergkshire, Walmart, Caterpillar, Walmart is a P ratio 40. Caterpillar is a P ratio of 40 that used to be a cyclical at a P ratio of 10 in good times. Value ETFs due to the structure ETFs have, how they work, how they operate, how they buy more of the more expensive value ETFs are not value, too risky. This will crash even more than the market. Then we have the question of Birkshshire cash how to allocate situations. Birkshire is on my quadrant. It is one of the few lowrisk situations alongside my research platform. But if I look at the 10-year return for Birkshshire, we are somewhere around 6% not more because Birkshshire is just doing its own thing growing growing growing and now we have seen this boom over the last there 2022 2025 and then stagnation. But if we go to our comparative intrinsic value table for educational purposes that you can download in the link in description below in my free value investment course here we have Birkshshire and if we take the net income in billions 45 billion if they grow at 6% if the terminal multiple is 17 the intrinsic value is half a trillion compare that to the market cap of 1 one so very expensive then you can say okay but they have the cash we'll discuss that if they grow at 8% P ratio of 25 then we are closer but if they grow just to 5% terminal multiple of 12 the present value of those cash flows and the situation if you want to get the 10% return you need to pay much less because it's possible that Birkshshire in 10 years will be at 800 billion So okay, it is some protection but you have to expect the ups and downs. When it comes to comparisons, Birkshshire for me is priced for your 5% likely return going forward. Not bad. However, let's discuss the cash. Birkshire has 400 billion in cash and then people say okay Sven, we have to add that cash on your 500 intrinsic valuation and then you are close to 1 trillion. Well, of the 400 billion in cash, they're invested at almost 4%, so they are getting 15 billion there of income. The net income for the year is 45 billion. So, the businesses are generating 30 billion. Some good insurance there. Okay. When there is a proper recession and crash, the businesses will not generate 30 billion will generate 20 billion. And then with the 400 billion they will buy great businesses that will generate another 20 billion. We are back again to the 40 billion that we are now in a crisis P ratio of 12 40 billion time 12 480 billion market cap with the cash spent maybe it will be 600 maybe 700 but given Birkshshire's history I've been following Burkshshire for a while it's very unlikely that you get a great return from where we are now and that's why they are sitting in cash it's Not just deducting 400 billion in cash, you need to also deduct 15 billion from net income which brings down the net income to 30 billion. 30 historical virtual P ratio was 10 to 20. Now we are at 20 something. So 20 let's take 15 30 billion times 50 means 450 billion. Then if you add the cash the value they will buy something but there will be panic. Okay, 600 700 is let's say something that would be fairly priced for Birkshshire. Is Buffett or Greg doing buybacks? Not that much. Which means Bergkshire is expensive. Then if we look at international from GMOs situation, international deep value, Japan small value. I'll tell you immediately emerging markets they are valuable when the yields are double digits. This is not double digits. When panic sets, this goes to dividend yields of 10% for great businesses, free ratios of five. That's cheap for emerging markets. So, this will crash more than American markets. Because when it comes to investing, if you cannot reach your goals with certainty, then you're just gambling. I have found some 21-day money back guarantee. You can check that. But speaking back to cash in relation to your situation, see what it fits. Understand the risk and reward of every position. Can I tolerate 50% crashes? If not, you have to invest differently or be hedged. We discussed hedged and I said a year ago that you pay 5% for a yearly option put on the S&P 500. If the market goes up 15% minus your five, you get a guaranteed 10% with huge protection. That's what we discussed. That's also something. And for now, it's working. Yes, you have 10%, not 15%, but you have no risk. If you have any questions for what I do, invest with Sven atgmail.com.