Election Expert: Do Polls Underestimate Trump’s Popularity? - Nate Silver

Duration: 8:38 1649 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

Nate Silver addresses the critical role of seven and a half swing states in determining the upcoming election, specifically highlighting Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Las Vegas as pivotal battlegrounds. He advises viewers that by September or October, television airtime will be dominated entirely by campaign commercials in these regions. While acknowledging the public's fascination with polling numbers fluctuating like a scoreboard, Silver emphasizes that new insights from polls between now and November are unlikely to emerge; instead, voters should focus on donating to down-ballot candidates for state supreme court races or city council positions rather than contributing to well-funded major party campaigns. The discussion delves into why Nevada is considered a surprising swing state given its cultural landscape dominated by the casino industry. Silver explains that this sector relies heavily on a diverse, working-class workforce comprising minorities such as Asian and Black individuals who have recently shifted their political alignment toward Donald Trump. This demographic shift poses a challenge for Democrats, whose traditional base often consists of college-educated professionals in knowledge sectors rather than food service or room staff at major resorts. Consequently, the typical casino employee represents a volatile voting bloc that has become increasingly risky for Democratic candidates relying on established urban coalitions. Regarding the viability of third-party options like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Silver suggests that while not impossible, success is difficult due to how major parties adapt to changing political tides. He notes that Donald Trump functioned as an effective third-party candidate in 2016 by disagreeing with establishment Republicans and adopting culturally conservative but fiscally moderate policies distinct from figures like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney. Furthermore, Silver points out that the Republican Party's internal debates over immigration have allowed them to co-opt independent voters who previously sought outside options, effectively neutralizing potential third-party threats before they can gain significant traction in a two-party system dominated by clever strategic adaptation. A central theme of the interview is an analysis of why polls historically underestimated Donald Trump and whether this bias could recur in 2024. Silver identifies two primary reasons for past polling errors: first, politically engaged, college-educated individuals who are more likely to respond to surveys tend to lean Democratic; second, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats were more inclined to answer phone polls due to increased social isolation and time at home, skewing results in 2020. However, Silver expects less polling error this year because current projections suggest a tight race between Trump and Harris that falls somewhere between their performances in 2016 and 2020, indicating a likely photo finish rather than an outright landslide for either candidate. Finally, the speaker addresses the issue of social desirability bias regarding Trump support, noting that while blue signs are ubiquitous in Austin neighborhoods, this does not necessarily reflect true voter sentiment due to low response rates among Trump supporters who may distrust news outlets conducting surveys. Silver argues that political tolerance has expanded significantly over the last few years; explicit support for Trump is now more acceptable even within Silicon Valley and Wall Street circles compared to four or eight years ago. Additionally, he highlights growing acceptance of Trump voters in communities such as younger Black men and Hispanic populations, suggesting that social circles have widened enough to allow individuals to openly identify as Trump supporters without fear of judgment.

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what do you think that we need to know about the seven and a half states that are likely going to determine this election um You probably don't want to turn on a TV in one of those States from about now onward you'll literally see I spent my time in Las Vegas yeah you'll see every single commercial is a campaign commercial by the time you get into September October November um but yeah obviously look if you are interested in the outcome of the election I think it's a important election then then vote you know donate by the way you want to donate um not to Trump or heris who have lots of money but um to your favorite down ballot candidates things like state supreme court races matter a lot and get far less attention or even city council and things like that um but yeah I mean you know some people enjoy like the scoreboard watching element of Elections where they like seeing the numbers go up and down um but you're not g to really learn anything new from from the polls between now and November not that you should read my newsletter but like but it's very likely to be close we have a very good idea of which states are likely to be most important and if you're in one of those States then you should probably vote which are those States um so Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan are like the northern Midwestern group and then Arizona Georgia Nevada North Carolina I'm surprised by Nevada I'm I have to admit that I'm a total like Noob to to this this is my first election being in the US I'm not used to this sort of set set of insights if you gave me most of of those States except for Nevada on a map I wouldn't be able to put a pin on them um but it surprises me that Nevada would have been one of those uh that being a swing state is kind of culturally surprising to me yeah so if you go to Nevada and uh spend time in the casino settings there um you'll see why it's a swing state because you have this um very working class Workforce that is often people who are um who are minorities you know his Asian black it's a diverse Workforce diverse working-class Workforce Casino industry um and that's a group that has shifted more toward Trump um if Democrats are relying on these like college educated knowledge sector workers um that's not the typical blackjack dealer although it does require quite a bit of skill frankly um that's not the typical person working in in food service at a big Resort or room service in a big Resort in in Las Vegas so that population has been uh risky for Democrats would a viable third option ever be able to get in you know we saw RFK junr give it as good of a crack I think as as uh could have been expected this year or is this essentially just impossible right now uh I don't think it's impossible but the issue is that the parties are pretty clever at adapting to the changing political Tides right so like in some ways in some ways Donald Trump was like a third party candidate um he disagreed in 2016 with George Bush and and Mitt Romney and criticized John McCain and was moving toward a much more culturally conservative but fiscally maybe less conservative actually policy than you had like under Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney for example or Bernie Sanders who is technically an independent he ran for the Democratic nomination and he produced change on things like the minimum wage and stuff like that but like so I think the risk is that um third party votes get co-opted by the two major parties yeah that is uh it's interesting to consider Trump as kind of like an outside option previously this is what people are saying when they're shouting about drain the swamp and he's not one of the globalist elite lizard people whatever uh this is what they it's kind of how they see him right yeah and you know keep in mind that um there was a whole GOP autopsy hey they have to move to the center on on immigration um and he had the foresight I guess to kind of Zig where other people zagged and and you know whatever else you say about Trump he's a former real estate guy and so he can kind of like maybe has some suc sense for when there's a underpriced piece of political real estate somewhere yeah why did the polls lowball Trump in the past is there a risk of that happening again there's a risk in fact there's probably a risk of both directions in 2022 you had po balls polls underestimate Democrats in some big races in 2012 they underestimated Obama a little bit um so pulsers offer two basic excuses and you know I say excuses because how valid they are we can I mean I don't think there're I think the poers would love to have unbiased results but It's Tricky um one problem is that people who are more politically engaged and college educated are more likely to respond to polls and also more likely to be Democrats um you know your typical MSNBC watching New York Times whatever you know Starbucks drinking liberal is is pretty like to respond to a poll but we'll and we'll vote Democrat in November um that's one issue there were also issues in 2020 potentially related to covid um where Democrats were much more likely to socially distance so they're sitting around without much to do and you know I probably made more phone calls during Co than I ever have in my life right um so Democrats were more likely to respond to surveys during covid and that may have caused issues in 2020 um but yeah these are legitimate reasons to to worry um the reason why I would say maybe I'd expect less of a polling ERA this year it's just because like what the polls are saying is that it's 5050 which is like a very reasonable suggestion I think right they're saying we're going to be somewhere in between 2016 and 2020 most likely comes down to a photo finish again the Electoral College and that's like not exactly going out on a limb is there a social desirability thing still with Trump I I walk around my uh very white very uh three and a half kids in a golden retriever neighborhood hood here in Austin Texas and I see a whole host of blue signs for Harris Waltz and I don't see a single one for Trump uh something tells me that people in two and three million do houses aren't all Democrats um I think there is some but maybe maybe less than people assume for a couple of reasons um one is that Americans tend to be pretty forthcoming when you ask them in surveys which is not true everywhere right um in India for example it's just considered kind of a bad idea to share your political opinion with a random stranger which in some ways maybe it is right um but Americans tend to answer polls pretty honestly the issue is more that you're not getting Trump supporters answering polls in the first place that um they're less likely to trust um trust a news outlet that calls and says do you want to take a survey um I would also say that the degree of social acceptability is wider now for Trump than it used to be um certainly on Silicon Valley and in Wall Street you have more explicit Trump support than you had four years ago or eight years ago um also in communities like like younger black men for example um or younger Hispanic men and things like that I I think I think the Social Circles expanded a little bit where you're where you're allowed to say you're you're a trump voter over the span of about a year I tried pretty much every Green strength that I could trying to work out which one was best and I came across ag1 and have stuck with it for over three years because it's the best I know that you might be skeptical about taking anything that replaces food this isn't supposed to replace food it's just foundational nutrition it's insurance for the days when you don't actually get what you're supposed to eat in your diet no matter whether it's because you're stressed because you're busy because you're tired it's difficult to get everything we need from our diet no matter how hard we try and that is why I've used ag1 every single day for over three years since 2010 they've improved the formula 52 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