Due to popular uprising Putin is preparing troops against Russians; civil war in Russia
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The Kremlin has been compelled to deploy security forces, specifically Rosgvardia units, to guard gas stations across the Moscow region and occupied Crimea due to fears of social unrest triggered by acute fuel shortages. Since August 18th, 2026, these measures have been implemented to contain violence and mass discontent among citizens who are increasingly angry over strict restrictions on gasoline sales. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War note that this heavy-handed approach indicates the Russian leadership has lost confidence in the regular police's ability to manage such a large-scale crisis and views the fuel shortage as a long-term threat to regime stability.
In parallel with these physical deployments, the government is urgently amending legislation to prepare for a potential brutal crackdown on protests. A newly approved bill allows personnel from the Ministry of Emergency Situations to use physical force and firearms during their duties, a move officially disguised as protection against Ukrainian drones but widely interpreted by analysts as providing legal grounds to disperse riots with armed force. These legislative changes are being introduced against the backdrop of two major regime fears: the persistent worsening of gasoline shortages and the potential for forced mobilization that Vladimir Putin plans to execute immediately following the September State Duma elections.
The fuel crisis has deepened significantly over recent months, with availability dropping from approximately 41% just a week prior to only about 28% nationwide by mid-August. While authorities initially extended restrictions on gasoline exports and sought additional petroleum products from Asian countries and the Middle East, these efforts failed to halt the deterioration of the situation. Shortages have now spread to major cities that were previously shielded from direct war consequences, including Moscow, Volgograd, Chelyabinsk, Orenburg, Voronezh, Samara, Penza, Saratov, Lipetsk, Rostov, and Tatarstan, signaling that the state's ability to compensate for attacks on oil infrastructure is becoming severely limited.
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Fear of social unrest and popular unrest
due to acute fuel shortages has forced
the Kremlin to deploy security forces to
guard ordinary gas stations. The
Institute for the Study of War reports
this, citing insider sources. According
to analysts, since August 18th, 2026,
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has
deployed Rosgvardia units to patrol at
least 13 gas stations in the Moscow
region and occupied Crimea. The primary
goal of these measures is to contain
violence and mass discontent among
citizens erupting over strict
restrictions on gasoline sales. ISW
notes that the deployment of the Russian
National Guard demonstrates that the
Kremlin has absolutely no confidence in
the ability of regular police to cope
with the scale of potential unrest
and views the fuel crisis itself as a
long-term threat. In parallel with the
forceful measures at gas stations,
Russian authorities are urgently
changing legislation in preparation for
a brutal crackdown on protests. A
government commission has approved a
bill allowing Russian Emergencies
Ministry personnel to use physical force
and firearms when performing their
duties. Although the Kremlin officially
disguises this decision as protection
from Ukrainian drones, ISW analysts are
convinced that the document was created
to provide security forces with legal
grounds to disperse riots with armed
force. The amendments to the civil
defense law are being introduced against
the backdrop of two of the regime's
greatest fears, persistent gasoline
shortages and the potential forced
mobilization that Putin plans to carry
out immediately after the September
State Duma elections. Russian
authorities [music] extended
restrictions on gasoline exports, but
this failed to stop the renewed
worsening of the fuel shortage. Amid the
fuel shortage, Moscow is also forced to
seek additional volumes of petroleum
products abroad, including in Asian
countries and the Middle East. Gasoline
availability problems have been observed
in Russia for several months. A new wave
of shortages began to emerge in late
May, when restrictions on fuel sales
began to spread even to Russia's largest
cities. According to data cited by
Russian media outlets, citing the GD
Benz mobile app, by August 18th,
gasoline was available at only
approximately 28% of gas stations
nationwide. Just a week earlier, this
figure stood at approximately 41%.
Thus, fuel availability has
significantly decreased over a short
period of time. Problems are being
reported in several regions of Russia,
including areas that regularly
experience the consequences of Ukrainian
long-range strikes. A decrease in
gasoline availability was noted, among
other places, in the Moscow, Volgograd,
Chelyabinsk, Orenburg, Voronezh, Samara,
Penza, Saratov, Lipetsk, and Rostov
regions, as well as in Tatarstan.
Problems have also affected the Moscow
region. Gazprom Neft [music] confirmed
that gasoline volumes have been
restricted at some Moscow gas stations.
The company stated that it is taking
measures to increase supplies. According
to ISW analysts, the situation is also
indicative because the Russian
leadership has long sought to shield the
population of large cities in the
western part of the country from the
direct consequences of the war. The
spread of fuel shortages to Moscow
indicates that the authorities' ability
to compensate for the consequences of
attacks on oil infrastructure is
becoming more limited.
>> Mhm.