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Day Trading Weekly Review & Next Week's Plan! | PS60 Process

Duration: 16:35 2900 transcript words EN summary

Video summary

The video provides a weekly review of the day trading market, highlighting a challenging week for major indices where the Nasdaq 100 fell by 2% and the S&P 500 dropped around 1.4%, driven primarily by declines in semiconductor stocks. Despite the broader market weakness caused by rising treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and profit-taking from large-cap technology names, the host emphasizes that traders should not fear the overall market but rather focus on individual stock opportunities. A standout example of this strategy was Moderna, which surged 130% following positive cancer trial results, demonstrating that significant gains can occur in forgotten sectors even when the tech-heavy indices are under pressure. The speaker notes that while big institutional money often flows into technology names with heavy option activity, there is always a specific catalyst or pivot point that creates high-probability trading setups regardless of the general market direction. Looking ahead to the upcoming Monday session, the transcript identifies the 50-day moving average as a critical technical level for the QQQ ETF, which closed exactly at 713 on Friday. The host explains that this specific close is highly significant because historical data shows that closing above this line often leads to rapid rallies, such as the previous move from 707 to 734 in just two weeks, while closing below it can trigger sharp declines. Similar volatility patterns are observed in other key stocks like Tesla and Rivian, where breaking above their respective 50-day moving averages has historically preceded aggressive multi-day runs. Consequently, the entire market sentiment for the week depends on whether these major names can reclaim and hold positions above these key moving averages, as failing to do so could signal a continuation of the summer downtrend or a lack of defensive buyers in the market. Several individual stocks are highlighted for their potential to drive the next leg of the market rally, with Tesla being the primary focus due to its proximity to the 50-day moving average and strong option buying activity. The speaker points out that Tesla recently reclaimed a key support level at 351.62, which triggered an immediate and aggressive price surge, proving that patience for specific technical triggers yields substantial rewards. Other notable mentions include Palantir, which executed a massive breakout within thirty minutes after clearing a pivot point, and Robinhood, which showed strong momentum before hitting a linear regression line. Additionally, the video touches on the resurgence of Bitcoin and its impact on related stocks like MicroStrategy, suggesting that speculation money is rotating into these assets, potentially creating further opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on speculative inflows rather than just following the broader index trends. In conclusion, the host advises traders to remain disciplined and prepared by setting alerts for key levels rather than trying to predict every market move, especially during uncertain times with political headlines and summer lulls in trading volume. The strategy involves waiting for confirmation from strong option flows and price action that breaks above established resistance channels, such as the 50-day moving averages or previous weekly highs, before entering positions. While some major tech giants like Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft are facing selling pressure or struggling to sustain rallies, the focus remains on finding the "edge" in individual names that show signs of life. The final message encourages traders to look for runaway trains like Tesla's potential breakout and to be ready to act when these high-probability setups confirm, promising a detailed plan and further analysis for the upcoming week.

Read the full video transcript

Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. >> Hey guys, good afternoon everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Axe the Trader weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has a right start, nice start to their weekend. If you could be so kind, if you like what we're doing, continue to watch. Thank you very much for the support. All I ask in return is if you do like what we're doing, hit that like button. If you haven't done so already, subscribe, come aboard, and hopefully again, I will continue to point you in the right direction. So, let's talk about it. Indexes had a red week ending August the 21st. You had the Nasdaq down 2% led by semiconductors. Again, they lead the market, and when the market goes down, they will lead down the market. Again, there's the biggest weight indexes stocks in the index on on the planet is the memory semiconductor / chips, the quote-unquote information technology names as well. Right? So, you had a 2% move down for the Nasdaq 100. You had a 1.3%, 1.4% fall off on the S&P 500. High treasury yields rising, oil rising. Again, rotation out of the big big runners. Still uncertain political, geopolitical war headlines here and there. And the question is, well, what happened, right? Did the market suck? No, the market didn't suck. And again, it kind of goes back to what we talk about every single day. Guys, we're not trading the market. Right? You don't trade the market. You trade individual names. There's always something, whether it's to the upside or to the downside, that can produce results. There is something out there, there always technology, especially in the technology sector, that there always is going to be heavy institutional money flow coming into that name with short-term option flow, short-term deep out of the money, near expiration option flow. And when that gets triggered, it's going to get triggered very, very hard. Now, I'll show you guys a couple of examples from Friday. We only had three pivots, right? Three pivots from Friday, but two out of the three were the two out of three biggest pivots uh on the board. So, it's very, very important considering we trade the same names over and over and over again. It wasn't like a shock to us that this happened. Again, uh all you can do is be prepared, take the data, set your you know, set your alerts, and when that stock confirms, especially when you get the strong option flow, there is your high probability uh trading. The ironic part about it is the biggest mover, right? The biggest mover of the week had nothing to do with technology. It was a stock that was forgotten, right? It was a stock that was a shining celebrity during the COVID craze, and then it died. Hopefully, no pun intended, right? And that was Moderna. Uh Moderna and its partner Merck had positive phase three cancer trials. As you can imagine, the stock went out of its mind. Uh stock was up 130% uh for the week. And this is after a 25% uh inside day on Thursday. So, hopefully, in this lifetime, uh we can get some really great cancer news, and once and for all cure this damn thing. But unfortunately, uh as uh Chris Rock uh said about 20 years ago in one of his specials, um the money is not uh the money is not in the cure, right? The money is in the medicine. But hopefully, uh human life and human dignity uh could win out over profit. But even then, regardless, uh really good news for Moderna, Merck, its partner. Obviously, you can see not exactly the same results, but still very, very positive. But the names that continue to get sold a lot of these technology names. We've been covering them all and all and all, right? The QQQ's going into Monday's session closed right on the 50-day moving average, right? That's not a good or bad thing, okay? And the reason why I say that is Monday is going to provide for us what's going to happen next for the foreseeable future. Right now the S&P Right now the 50-day moving average on the QQQ's is 713. Guess where they closed? 713. So yes, usually a random Monday summer session wouldn't be important. I would say Monday's session is going to be very important because regardless of what your favorite stock is going to do or attempting to do, we're either going going to get a close above the 50-day moving average on the Q's or below the 50-day moving average in the Q's. And you can see it last time we got above was a short period of time, but we got above. We went from 7 707 all the way up to 734 in a matter of 2 weeks. Last time we lost the 50-day moving average on the close, we went from 724 all the way down to 661. So yes, the 50-day moving average, if you've been watching me for a long time, is very, very important. So any close above 713 is bullish, any close below 713 on Monday, again, I don't want to be overly dramatic, but it's going to be a very important session. You look at the SPY's, right? SPY has just been falling, right? It's been falling ever since they lost the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average. Again, it's just been kind of grinding lower. Again, not a big deal until we start having a conversation at the 50-day moving average. We're still 14 points above, but right now we're just kind of drifting, drifting, drifting. Uh you can make a case that this is the end of summer. There's not a lot of people around to defend price action. Okay, I'll buy that for now. Majority of the names that I trade have nothing to do with the S&P 500. There are some uh crossovers with the Apples and the Microsofts of the world, the Metas of the world, but the majority of names of the S&P 500 have nothing to do uh with my uh concentration level. Uh Tesla's there uh as well. We'll get to that as well. Uh Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin has been basically a savings account for the last year or so. Uh finally woke up. Really, really big moves on Bitcoin. Uh sparked big moves with the with their derivatives on Coinbase. MSTR was up like 25% for the week. That's pretty damn big. I don't know again, I don't know what sparks Bitcoin or makes it go lower or makes it go into stalemate. But again, results are results are results. Uh can this continue to be uh some sort of incline into more speculation money hitting the marketplace and rallying the tape? A little too early to tell, but at least for uh the Coinbases of the world and MicroStrategy of the world or is it even the Bitcoin shareholders of the world? This has been a really, really good week. Let's talk turkey, right? Let's talk turkey. Okay, so forget about the stocks they're selling, right? And you guys know the names. Amazon, we've been talking about Amazon for a while now. Bezos is selling. Uh Nvidia just cannot sustain a big rally. It's just kind of what it is. You know, it goes on a a week, week and a half rally and then just dies. You can just see the chart here over and over and over again, especially in the last 6 months. Um Microsoft, uh Microsoft uh had a big, big run. It's kind of just teetering here. Kind of teetering here below the five, below the 10-day moving average. Uh not healthy. You got uh Meta can't get out of its own way, right? Can't get out of its own way on on meta. You have uh the semi names, right? Micron Micron kind of sitting there on the 50-day moving average kind of delta neutral. It has a chance just like the mirror image of the QQQ's to make a stance this week. So again, no judgment yet and no key direction yet on Micron. Sandisk continues to build below the 50-day moving average. It really needs to get back above the 1650 to kind of wake up again. But if you look at some of the other semis, you got arm looking like garbage, right? You got arm looking like garbage. Avago just cannot get out of its own way. It looked very very promising, just rolled over and died. It rolled over and died because Marvel had a deal with Google, right? Marvel had a deal with Google and looked at it really really good run in the beginning of the week and it just kind of died. It was a negative effect for Avago. You look at AMD, right? You look at AMD well below the 50-day moving average as well. So you got a disconnect here from a lot of names, right? There's still a lot of speculation money, especially the Bitcoin names that are pouring in. And now there is a potential transfer into the greatest stock on the planet. No, I'm not talking about AMD. I'm definitely not talking about AMC, right? I am talking about your friend and mine, Mr. Tesla, right? So what do we got here? Now if you're looking at the chart, you turn around and say, "All right, Dan, you know, had a nice little bounce. What are you getting so excited about?" Okay. Let's do a quick little history lesson, right? Last time I'm not going to go back to the history of of Tesla. Last time Tesla got above the 50-day moving average was on April the 30th, right? And it went from 384 to 453 in a matter of a week. That's 70 points. Last time Tesla lost the 50-day moving average, the stock went from 402 and the stock went to 368 in four trading days, right? So, and then I excuse me, the second to last time. The last time it lost the 50-day, it went from 413 Sorry about that. Went to 297 again. I think you get the point across why the 50-day is so important. So, here we are, right? Here we are. We touched the 50-day moving average on Friday. If Tesla wants to grace us, right? Grace us all in its presence and potentially go on another big run, we need for this damn thing to get back above the 50-day moving average, right? If it could get back above the 50-day moving average, we could get a multi-day, multi-week, really aggressive rally. Again, this is the last time it got back above the 50-day, the stock went from 408 to 432 in three sessions. Just to give you an idea, right? And this is where we lost it. So, I would love to see Tesla get back above the 50-day moving average. If it could get back above the moving average, it could start filling in this whole earnings gap and get back to this 385, 390 level, right? This is a very, very important. Look at uh it look if you look at the options market, they started coming in for some really, really aggressive call buying into Friday session. We'll get the pivots in a second. There's only three pivots on Friday. Uh but they're starting to coming for some short-term 370 and 375 calls. Any close above the 50-day moving average, this will be risk on. Now again, if you go back to the recent history, we just don't know how long this rally is going to be. Tesla, for whatever reason, cannot live with prosperity, but we're not looking for a three, four, five-month run. We're looking for a day-by-day, right? Just keep on getting above the 50-day, staying above, and keep on building price action above the 50-day moving average. So, this week, again, it has a really good chance to get back above the 50-day moving average, stake its claim, and run the savages into oblivion who are shorting the stock into into this advantageous prices. So, let's see what happens there. PLTR, beautiful breakout this week. Right? Had a great run on earnings, went sideways for 2 weeks, and this thing is poised, man. This thing looks really good. We saw some pretty aggressive September 190 call buyers come in pretty aggressively on Friday. Definitely a name to watch cuz if this thing could just get back above, right? Friday's channel, this thing could wake up really hard. Look at Robinhood, right? Robinhood had a really, really big move above the 50-day moving average, exploded. We saw some September and October 120s being printed. Very, very strong move. Only reason why it stopped where it did is you can see it hit its linear regression line on Friday. If they could get back above its linear regression line, I think we could see the recent July highs. Looks, you know, really really good. So, this is is playing out really well. So, you got some names, you got some names that are definitely standing out. The Palantirs, the Robinhoods of the world, the Teslas of the world. Right now, we are in a very, very delicate place with the Nasdaq 100 as as discussed uh prior that we closed right on the 50-day moving average. So, it's very, very important to that we close above it on Monday. Some other names that look really good, you got NOW. NOW is getting super duper tight here, guys. Keep an eye on NOW. If it could get back above the previous weeks highs, and Rivian, right? I I don't think it has anything to do with with Tesla, but Rivian, this is the first close now above the 50-day moving average. If they can just get back above the July 31st highs, this thing could actually start waking up again. me. Again, here's the point of reference. Here's the last time Rivian closed above the 50-day moving average was on June the 26th and the stock went from 1572 and in 5 days went to 20. So again, kind of a big deal. So for all you guys who trade the lower price names, uh keep an eye on Rivian going into next week as well. So here are the pivots, right? Here are the pivots, guys. Uh I only traded Tesla on Friday. That's it. I Again, you don't need Look, when you're trading Tesla and Palantir and Amazon and and and Meta, you don't need 100 trades, guys. When these things are going, they're not going in, you know, 50-cent intervals. Sometimes they do, but when these things start to expand, especially big levels, they go pretty, pretty aggressively. So here was the key metric, uh 351.62. That was reclaiming back the 34 EMA and that's when they started pounding. When I'm talking about pounding the 355 weeklies, the 360s, the 365 weeklies and Tesla went savage, right? Tesla went absolutely savage, as you can see here. This was the word go, right from the word go. So here's the whole three uh the whole 351.60s level and this damn thing went all the way up to 366. It needs to get back above Friday's channel and then we potentially have another 10 to 15 points. So Tesla was uh awesome. Uh PLTR went crazy, went absolutely crazy within 30 minutes, right? Within 30 minutes, uh 176.82 uh was the key pivot level and PLTR went nuts. It got above this whole 3-day channel. There That's where the three 176.82 level got back above the previous week's high of 180.20 and went to 82.50. So you're talking about a $6 move in a very, very short period of time. Guys, look look at this move here. This is a massive, massive move in a very short period of time. Congratulations for all you guys who who caught it. Uh Also, again, it needs to get back above Friday's channel for higher price action going into next week as well. So, again, a huge moves here. NOW didn't confirm. CRM, not a bad move. 208 rejected twice. Basically, needs to build. And CRM went up about 230 bucks. Nothing crazy, but this is not the highest close in the whole formation going into Monday's session. And I believe that is it, right? Microsoft never got there. I don't believe so. I wasn't even looking at it. Microsoft, let's see here. 37477 short. Nope, still there. Still there. So, really good week. Really, really good week. Let's see, guys. Let's see. Nothing hits harder. Nothing feels different. Nothing feels better than a runaway train on Tesla. Do we at least get an opportunity to get on that runaway train? We shall see, said the blind man. We shall see. Guys, have a great remainder of your weekend. God bless. I'll see you all the new faces in the webinar. Look forward to working with you. And with God's help, I will see you all on the field on Monday.