Cryptocurrencies with MKT.TRADE | Bookmap

All right, cool. All right, welcome everybody. Today is September 8th, 2026. This is the Bookmap stream. My name is Spencer Rigel. I I hop on here every week or try to at least and and represent market at trade. If you enjoy the stream, here are our socials. We are publishing fairly active and and continue to to publish as much as we can. But, markets are busy. So, if you enjoy the stream, make sure to follow us over there. But, before we dive into things, we always start the session by talking about a little bit of disclosures. So, all information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures, equities, and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. So, each week we start the session by talking about risk capital, right? And what is risk capital? Capital in which you're willing to lose, right? And so, if you need that capital in which you're trading with or managing for end of the month bills, end of the week groceries, or better quality of life events, we actually see that capital being best allocated in those avenues, right? The major reason for that is if you are thinking about end of the month bills, end of the week groceries, or those extracurricular events, you will bring in inherent biases. It is what we do. And our focus here each and every week is to focus on the facts of the market. What is the market presenting us in terms of risk reward and take the best setups. And really eliminate that subjective bias, right? And so, that is our little spiel about risk capital every every week. Next here is talking about the promotion that we're running with uh at trade. So, we are very appreciative of everybody that hops on watch the stream whether it's live or the recording on YouTube. Uh and for that reason, we want to extend our free offering uh instead of 2 weeks out to a month uh for anybody that is on Bookmap. So, in order to do that, what you need to do is head over to market.trade. Just come down here to the 2 weeks free. Instead of one asset class, click all. And then day trader. Try it for free. And then you'll be prompted with this sign up page. All the way down at coupon, if you enter bookmapfree, you will see it pop up. And it will credit a full free month. Um so, that is a thank you from us to you. And uh we really appreciate you uh for watching the stream and engaging. For those that are new, and I do actually see a new face, um we take a top-down approach to markets, right? And so, each and every week we start the week with an agenda. And then we take it a step deeper and go into the weekly price map. And then we take it a step deeper and we go to the strategy and application. Typically, we have time to cover four markets. We are cross asset, so we cover multiple different markets. Uh but for the for the nature of the show, most of the time what we cover is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and then we uh and then we make sure to drive into some of those traditional futures markets. So, the ES minis we often cover, and then we're open for a fourth, right? Uh so, sometimes we cover the gold contract, covered that last week, and uh and sometimes we cover the oil contract, right? Basically, whatever is pushing the market and uh is a bit more actionable. So, on the macro side, we have gotten past September 4th, uh and that's kind of what we talked about last Friday or last week, apologies. Uh Uh, and that was being the August jobs report, right? And um, for those that were around and and not taking an early holiday, the the market uh, found some selling. Um, and so uh, since and when I say the market found some selling, predominantly in Bitcoin and Ethereum, um, but nothing that was trend changing, nothing that was significant, uh, but it was enough of an event that we traded to the opposite side of this current range that we're in and we'll talk about. Next on the list that we need to talk about is going to be September 11th, 15th, 15th, and 16th, right? And uh, the market already is pricing in some of that future volatility risk. Uh, if you look at the ball terms, you'll see that forward ball, uh, particularly around these expiries, uh, a bit elevated, right? And that kind of lifts the full curve. And uh, and so you can see that in the uh, is specifically you can see that in ETH uh, ball term. Next, obviously FOMC, uh, FOMC in October, Treasury quarterly refunding, and then uh, FOMC in D's, right? So, those nothing's changed there and those continue to be a uh, main driver. And um, the one other macro is uh, we actually added jobs on Friday, right? And so the market saw that as a negative, sold off on that because of uh, the potential for rate hikes. And if you look at the Fed funds uh, futures, there is a uh, higher likelihood that uh, we will see a rate hike out of the FOMC next week. So, we'll keep an eye on that. We actually are going to be hopping on prior to those meetings, so we will uh, we'll pull those Fed funds uh, futures up and um, and take a look at them prior to the event. But that is the kind of macro landscape. Let's dive into the weekly outlook. And to do that, I'm going to pull up Bookmap here on the right. And then I'll zoom over here so that we have a little bit of both. I actually have some exciting news. Um we have rolled out some some integrations in which we're testing for both Bookmap uh so that we can get the price map over on the application. So, that will be in the near future and we'll be excited to show that one for the stream. I think it'll be pretty cool and then for two um just will be kind of all-inclusive on the uh Bookmap application. So, let's jump over and uh what we're going to do here is jump over to the crypto markets first, talk about Bitcoin first and then we will uh then we'll go over to the futures markets, but um on the left here, you are looking at the price map all the way on the left and that is our proprietary data and analytics. It is both qualitative and then quantitative. Um And on the right of the site, you are looking at our playbook. Playbook, just uh quick summary for those, is a uh kind of a broken down viewpoint of of the price map, right? And so, we bring in the market state, right? And so, that's the expectation of how price should trade within this current uh state of the market, right? And so, that's your trends. We support 26 different market states. And then the structure, which is our our regime bias. We support nine different dynamic our regimes. And uh and then we support multiple different durations, right? And so, you combo all everything, you can get a pretty large output in terms of what we support, but um that is the whole point of the playbook is to break everything down into manageable bite-size pieces, almost like reading a a chapter book in the morning. And uh So, first and foremost, the current state of the market is a bull trend correction. So, this is a market in a bull trend correction, and it's a signature state, and has produced a negative signal against a positive trend. The market remains firm, however, is vulnerable to a counter-trend corrective break. The market is searching for support and is characterized by stop-and-go trade with the sharp with sharp emotional breaks. The corrective action can disappear quickly, so avoid leveraging up on any sell-off as the positive momentum will try to reestablish itself. A tell to a return to the bid is a capitulation reversal signal off support. A sustained break in the underlying positive structure is more likely to result in a shift into a new control market state versus a negative transition. Don't lose sight of the underlying positive momentum, which can start to feed on itself near the end of the trade period into the settlement phase. Structure positive, right? So, a market in a bull trend correction signature state with the R level all the way here below the D 2 1 provides a target for the current counter-trend signal. This is the forecasted corrective low point. The key tell for this state is how the market reacts at the downside pivot after a challenge to the R level. A held trade below the DP is a sign of weakness that signals signals the potential for a negative transition. A DP reversal, however, has the potential to trigger the next advance to new move highs. The UP will be a formidable resistance for uh this structure, especially early in the session. Once the market trades below the directional or above the directional, it should stay above it. If not, then the market will be vulnerable to a corrective trade targeting the R level. So, currently, uh key levels to take a look at for the week, and let me make sure that Bitcoin we have up here on Bookmap so that we can take a look at the liquidity. Um most importantly is uh first and foremost, start each week with the critical range. Critical range is the UP down to the DP. In the middle of the critical range is your directional, right? That is what's considered to be a normal trade uh range for the week. And uh and a lot of everything that happens within it is just noise. Um So, under the directional, directional is your classic pivot point within the critical range. Immediately that triggers an outlook down to the DP. Um but the expectation is on the broader sense of the next 7 days. And this was published on Saturday, so we'll get a new one this Saturday. Uh so, we are a couple days already into it. Is uh it's a bull trend, right? And so, even though we're in a corrective kind of state of that bull trend, don't chase the sell-offs. Look for the fade opportunities if and only if you're looking for a short, uh and don't be surprised if this market reverses back to the bid and does it quickly, right? On the uh on the bid side, the way in which I look at this is uh price under the directional, R level under the market, basically signals that instead of being a short, we are a buy long thesis. Um but instead of a seller's market, which is kind of the a leverage goes to the sellers, it's a buyer's market, right? So, the buyers have time, and they have time under the directional, and they're looking to work the bid. Right? Where are they going to work the bid? Next outlook here is uh down at the DP. DP is a critical uh level for this week, right? So, right at 76361. Under it, is negative, right? Targeting the R level and a what if under it. Uh but a reversal around the DP is quite positive, right? And that has the ability to start this new trend move higher to test the UP. Right? Again, we're Tuesday uh after a holiday in the US, so we are a bit further along in the period than typically we jump on. Um but DP is a very important level. For the bulls to re-engage and get really excited, really you need to see over 79498 supported and held. Um with the CPI this week, right? On on Friday, yeah. Then uh all the focus kind of turns to that binary event and so far it's been lackluster, right? Falls been sold. Um we are seeing a slight uptick in the 30-day, but more of that is is around that event of next week, right? So, price over 79498 positive up to 82825 and then if we do get a breakout, your first target's going to be 86057. Um that extension high is going to be 89288, but that would not be the expectation for this week, right? Barring any kind of event. Event, then that immediately comes into play. On book map side of things, we are not seeing a ton of liquidity that really stands out. I mean, we have some coin down here 172 right at 77, uh just above the weekly DP, right? So, that's important. Uh but our expectation is that would be taken out and the DP would be tested. We have some liquidity that's just resting around the book here. Looks to be some uh some algos. And then on the offer here all the way at 82,500, absolutely we see alignment there. Uh so the coin that's sitting up here from 82 to 82,500, 82 is a bit front-running. It's in the middle of this range. We would expect that 82,500 to be tested if we can clear over the 79,498. Again, 82,825 is part of the critical range and becomes a very important level this week. Um and for a breakout to maintain, it's very important that it needs to to hold uh because of the corrective nature of this market state. You can see that we can get some of this ping-ponging back and forth, right? Uh so if you are going to go for a breakout, make sure to keep the stops tight um and more of the more of the opportunity is leaning over the directional early versus later in the trade period, uh especially if as we get closer to that binary event. Let's jump over to Ethereum and do the same thing. So we have the perpetual multi-book here on the right. And um and we have a different Let's take a look at the weekly. Cool. So the weekly is in a different state and specifically here in Ethereum, what I am going to do, I know this chart looks a bit crowded. What I want to acknowledge here is the amount of alignment that is at the directional this week. So we did a post yesterday talking about this and specifically within that post, the expectation was take a look at the broader trend. The trend currently, based on the market state, is we're in a bull trend, right? Um the R level is below the market, which is positive. Right? So, we'll get in the structure. And you have not only the weekly close, you have the monthly close, you have the last quarter's high, and the weekly midpoint, which is time frame structure all lining up around the price map structure. That's exactly the alignment we look for uh when we are looking at this market, right? And so, in our post yesterday, it was um the acknowledgement that uh the range here is really defined by the previous month's high all the way to the previous week's low. And uh and don't chase the the short side, right? Because this bid, especially with the market state and the market structure, uh can return quickly, and that's exactly what it did this morning, right? Um So, with the bull trend, it this is a signature state, which is typified by a market that continues to make higher move highs and higher move lows, or positive structure. If the market continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected. This does not mean there cannot be corrective setbacks, but rather any negative price action is expected to exhaust above the lower inflection point that will maintain structure. Any failure or break in the positive structure is more likely to produce a neutral shift rather than a negative transition. A quiet market is likely to turn positive, especially later in the trade period. Typically, if the market is going to trend higher, it will demonstrate that with positive intraday price structure. If not, a firm digestive trade is the outlook. So, let me make sure that we have the R level here. This market remains positive all the way down to the R level. Again, very similar to Bitcoin on the week. Um under the directional, just shifts this market from in a seller's market, which is kind of when I say seller's market, all I mean is uh the buyers have limited time, right? Because at any point in time, this market can scale if it's over the directional. If it's under the directional, that just shifts the time and the patience back to the buyers, right? And so, the buyers now can work a bid um and uh and can work the best price with the expectation that the DP is very important and the DT1 to the R level this week maintain that structural low point. R level below the DT1 lowers the foundational support of this market state and anticipation of a potential price squeeze. The trend is your friend and is positive down to the R level. Any negative signals above above here are corrective and expected to have a short duration. Ultimately, giving way to the underlying bull trend uh momentum. The key tell is intraday structure. Any positive turn following a corrective break has the potential to be the start of a next reaction to new move highs. Use the directional as the sentiment guide. Below here, the market will be vulnerable to a play to the R level. Above the directional, the market will be poised for a positive extension. A failure from the R level is more neutral signal than a negative. So, I know and you see this all over um Twitter and social media and everybody wants to short this rally that we've gotten. And right? From 1,800 to 1,700 or sorry, 1,800 1,700 lows, 1,500 lows back in the middle of summer all the way to these 2,500 highs. Trend is your friend here, right? This market does not go negative until the R level and even then it transitions into a neutral state versus a negative state, right? Um and market over the directional especially with alignment on all of these larger time frames that align literally right here. It's hard to short it and it's hard to be short. Um now, obviously, all of that can change. Um but we have a significant ways for the market to go off before it becomes kind of a bearish outlook. So, on the strategy side of things, the outlook's pretty clear. There's direct alignment with the directional from all these different time frames. And uh and really the time frames are divine are are um are defining this range, right? So, previous week's low up to the previous month's high. Just above the previous month's high, we have the UP, right? So, that critical range very much again um is just above that major level, right? So, everybody would see that previous month's high breakout. Oh my gosh, we're breaking out. We have the We have the UP that's just above it, right? And so, if that's going to be a real breakout, based on the price map, the critical range should should be the base and the support. Otherwise, it's just a normal trading range with the expectation that a uh you could trap some some uh overzealous buyers into the UP and return them right to the directional. So, over directional, 2474, the expectation is a test of 2623. Over 2623, the sky's the limit. Where specifically? UT1 is the first target area, and an event high becomes the previous year's close. Previous year's close, I'm going to start talking about right now because it is in play even though it seems far away. Um, these markets tend to move quite quickly and uh and they do it all at once, especially Ethereum. So, when we're looking at uh this next movement, a measured move is uh specifically if we hold that UP, a normal move would be 26 or 2768. An event high, if we get one, has the potential really to tag that previous year's close. Um, there are a lot of non-believers in this rally and um underallocated uh members or participants, if uh if this market really gets away from them. So, do not underestimate the breakout if it were to come. And uh that is kind of the expectation for Ethereum this week and going forward. Uh more than likely as long as we stay in a positive structure, which we are currently, that outlook is going to persist. So, on the bid and the offer here, light book in the multi book, um last week we talked about some of those cash bids entering the market. Not really seeing much. We're seeing some uh traces above the uh offer, right? And below the offer, 60 over and 60 under. More than likely that's going to be an algo, right? Um but very important to uh continue to watch the liquidity popping up in the multi book and uh and in book map, right? So, as this market gets more interesting, it is more than likely we'll start to see it. That is Bitcoin and Ethereum. Let's jump over to the futures. And uh and we'll go through those as well. We um just as a note, we did a a post on my X account. So, just uh over here at underscore just my last name. On uh on the weekly price map last week. And um we're looking at a similar setup. Does it hold? Great question. We do have a binary event. Uh but first and foremost, again, starting with the basics, we're in a bull trend. Um Some of that post was talking about absolutely there are a lot of kind of these wall of worries, right? So, Iran conflict, crude uh continues to hold bid. Um you're having tariff kind of escalations with the United States, Canada. Uh name it, right? And uh and it's out there. Um however, market structure is market structure, and the S&P particularly has found a way to uh to maintain firm, right? And so until it's broken, it's not broken. And uh and that's the facts of the market. So bull trend here. Same state Uh sorry. Yeah, same state that we just talked about in Ethereum, so I'm not going to dive through there, but we are in a different structure, right? So the R level is just below the market at the DP, which is positive, right? Um Apologies. I am trying to highlight this because it's a bit difficult to read on the dark. But uh R level here, most important level on the map this week at 7635. Uh and then we are trading under the directional. So we've tried to break through it a couple different times, and uh and we've done so with fail. Um and so far we are bound by the minor levels, which is CR plus to the CR minus. And uh and those are going to be basically your minor critical range. With the R level so close to the market here, expectation is this level should support the market this week, right? Uh so 7635, if you see a break under 7622, that's a market to be concerned about, not chase, right? Because then it will fall back into kind of a longer term uh time frame, and the uh and the state of the market will shift, right? And so we are looking at the 7-day, and uh and particularly into the Friday close here. So 7622 keeps the buy the dip theme alive. Under it is not a market to chase, and um and it's more of a market to uh to size down on, right? However, do we have to get to the R level? In a perfect scenario, this the R level is the point of best risk reward that we see on every single price map. Right? When I say that, I mean the daily, weekly, monthly, when you have alignment on multiple different durations, it becomes even more significant. For this week, the risk then becomes 72 622 for the buy the dip theme to maintain. Right? Uh and so entering as close to 76 622 obviously puts the odds in your favor as the buy uh buyer fade immediately targets the directional. Right? So risking, I don't know, uh 7635 down to 7622 to gain all the way to 7721. Right? There's a multiple there on the risk reward. And then if you really do get an extension here, let's say out of that buy near event on Friday, and you get a quick test, then then you can get a a full reversal all the way up to the upside of the critical range. And the UP down to the R level defining the critical range this week is just a normal trade range. Right? So that would not be anything crazy. However, for those that are caught short at the R level, which last week played out, um it can be quite painful. Right? So again, we are in a buy the dip theme. R level 7622 supports the market. That's the expectation. Bulls really become more engaged over 7721. Uh and then the expectation is for that upside critical range, 7816. Um but most important level to hold this week, 7622. And uh and bulls re-engage in the market over 7721 with a target of 7816. So that is the E-mini contracts. And um let's open it up for some suggestions. So, is there any futures contracts, stocks, ETF that uh that you want to go through? We have a uh we have time for a fourth one, so. If not, we can uh we can cover kind of dealer's choice. Okay, no suggestions. All right, um let's jump into crypto again. And the reason I say that is because predominantly we cover Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I've been involved in crypto markets for 9 years at this particular point in time, and very heavily over the last 6 years. Uh and so I've seen at this particular point in time about six drawdowns of greater than 60% in Ethereum. Um and each cycle has a different theme, right? One theme that has been very persistent this year um and has kind of been the the poster child for outperformance has been hyper liquid. Um and then obviously you're getting some of that regulation clarity, and uh which is quite cool to see, especially when I have seen the opposite side of that coin play out many times in these themes. Um the reason I'm bringing up a crypto market as kind of dealer's choice is often times what you'll see is Bitcoin and Ethereum will perform, right? Especially cyclically, right? And so Bitcoin uh since uh since time, right, has outperformed in many cycles, and uh and then has seen significant drawdowns. The drawdowns are getting lesser and lesser as the market participants become further sophisticated, right? And that they're deploying either uh more robust hedging strategies, there's more liquidity, more access to liquidity, there's better financing, name the gamut. Um it exists now. Right? Same thing with Ethereum. Ethereum typically is a bit more levered. Um and there's many different theories on why that exists, but what you see is often a higher realized fall uh and you see some deeper drawdowns and uh and while the market is not as deep as it has been, uh we still have seen significant drawdowns, right? With that being said, often times you get a stalling period, right? And that stalling period, um like what we are seeing in Bitcoin and ETH, is great for selling vol, selling 7-day straddles, 14-day straddles, that kind of idea, but where you get some of that outperformance is that liquidity that came into the majors distributes to the right tail. And when I say right tail, I mean down the risk curve. And risk curve in crypto often times means either startup startup tokens, and we've seen some tokens over the last uh couple of weeks do 10 10x, 20x, right? From their their uh cycle lows. But um even in some of the larger coins that have larger larger market caps, right? I think the future diluted value of uh the market cap of Hyperliquid is in the 80 billion at this particular point. We're still only seeing performance. Uh so this if you're getting bored of the vol in ETH and Bitcoin, some of the other coins uh are quite supportive of that volatility, right? So, Hyperliquid is the dealer's choice this week. Let's go through uh the state. So, same state as Bitcoin. So, weekly we are in a bull trend correction. Um so, larger bull trend producing a negative signal, right? Structure is positive, right? So, the R level all the way down at 7381 supports the market. And uh in the or the uh the bulls are still in charge all the way down to the R level. On the strategy side of things, one trade theme is already played out, right? And so, you get a base over the directional, immediately you target the UP, and now we're rotating lower, right? And uh and so, the expectation here is R level is positive, right? So, at any point in time this market can return to the bid, and where does the bid go? 8982. Uh and then over that, obviously, sky's the limit, right? Previous month's high here was previous week's high. There's no highs in terms of time frame that we're not over, right? That would be an all-time high breakout. Um and that's full-on price discovery. Currently, we are testing the directional. You'll notice that there is some correlation to the majors. Uh and so, that that selling off uh that happened throughout the morning session, and then the rebound also happened here in uh hyper liquid. So, if those majors return to the bid and quickly break out, the expectation, more than likely, hyper liquid it would as well. How do you confirm that? Over 8495 this week uh defines that, right? Over 8495 is not a market to short. This is not a market to short um purely based on the R levels uh supporting the market. Where are good entries to look to re-engage the bid or potentially add to longs, all those kind of scenarios? Uh DP down here at 8067. If the market can uh can test and hold, that's positive. Shifting back through 8495, right? And a held trade here immediately targets the UP and potential re-engagement for the all-time high, and you could get a 9440 print. Which would be exciting. You would see that all over crypto Twitter. Um on the breakdown side, though, more particularly the value area in terms of the price map of where to buy this week is the DT1 down to the IR level. Under the IR level is not a market to engage with, uh and that's why the DT1 down to the IR level becomes the value area. Why? Buying 7610 down to 7381 with a risk of 7320 is much more compelling on a risk reward basis than uh than chasing a market at an all-time high at the UP. Right? So, that is why down here becomes the deep value for the week for the next 7 days, and absolutely what uh what we'll be looking at. So, that's dealer's choice. Kind of a little bit of fun for the fourth one, but uh that is uh that's all for the week. So, we we can open up for questions, and uh I know that we're doing a recording here. So, if there are any real questions when uh when this gets published to YouTube, make sure to hop over to the Bookmap Discord, and uh and reach out to me either personally in the English traders floor, or uh in the crypto chat. So, okay, cool. No questions this week. I will catch you all next week, and uh and good luck.