Video summary
The political landscape in Israel is experiencing significant turbulence as election lists are finalized, with a major shift occurring involving Tally Guttman. Previously a prominent figure within the Likud party who was furious over the lack of women's representation on their list, she has decided to run under Itamar Ben-Gvir's party instead, securing a much higher position on that new list. This move is seen as a strategic blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as it removes a potential source of internal discipline and allows Guttman to speak freely about his criticisms of him without fear of party repercussions. While Likud officials may be relieved to see her leave, analysts argue that this development merely amplifies her voice against Netanyahu rather than silencing her, effectively making her an even greater headache for his campaign.
Amidst these internal fractures, Ofer Winter continues to polarize the right-wing spectrum by taking a hardline stance on the draft exemption issue, refusing to join any government that does not force ultra-Orthodox Jews into military service before it is formed. This rigid position creates a complex scenario where he could potentially block alliances between Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, or even prevent a united front between Bennett and Lieberman if they manage to combine their seats to challenge Netanyahu. Winter's refusal to compromise on this deeply divisive issue means that his future role remains uncertain; if he fails to cross the electoral threshold, it could destabilize the right-wing bloc further, whereas success might allow him to become a kingmaker or a significant obstacle depending on how other factions align themselves around the draft law.
The ultra-Orthodox exemption issue has emerged as an unprecedented focal point for voters heading into the October 27th election, with implications that could reshape the entire political constellation. This single topic threatens to hurt Netanyahu, who previously made agreements with these communities but failed to fully satisfy them, while simultaneously endangering Bezalel Smotrich if he runs without Winter's support. There is a genuine concern among observers that Smotrich might fail to meet the electoral threshold, especially given his role as Finance Minister where unpopular budget cuts have already generated anger among the public and within the ultra-Orthodox community. The disproportionate casualties suffered by ultra-Orthodox soldiers in recent wars have added emotional weight to these political grievances, raising the possibility that a split vote between Smotrich and Winter could drag both down and ultimately contribute to Netanyahu's downfall.
As the deadline for submitting election lists approaches, journalists and politicians alike are holding their cards close to their chests, engaging in last-minute maneuvering that characterizes this high-stakes political game. The potential outcomes remain highly unpredictable, with various combinations of parties merging or splitting based on their stance on the draft law and other contentious issues. If Bennett and Lieberman were to unite and secure enough seats, they could present a formidable right-wing alternative to Netanyahu, potentially offering him a rotation for Prime Minister if Winter's promises hold true. Ultimately, the coming days will reveal whether these strategic shifts lead to a new government formation or further chaos, with the draft exemption issue serving as the central flashpoint that could determine the fate of multiple leaders and the direction of Israeli politics in the near future.
Read the full video transcript
So, for more political analyst, Gil
Hoffman is here in studio and there are
so many developments on the political
front. Thank you, Gil, for being here. I
want to start with a new development
just in. Earlier in the week, we were
covering the fact that Tally Gotlib is
furious with the Likud, very upset about
the lack of women representation on the
Likud list and she said, "If you think
I'm going to keep quiet, you are
horribly wrong. So, what is the update?"
>> The update is that she's going to run in
a different party in the party of Itamar
Ben-Gvir. Uh she'll get the number four
slot in the list there instead of number
20, whatever she was going to be inside
Likud and uh this is all a big game, uh
Benita, because had she been in Likud,
then
there were ways to keep her quiet and
enforce party discipline. Now that she's
with another party, she can talk all she
wants. She got in trouble for insulting
Netanyahu, for for suggesting he was
doing certain things for his own benefit
at the expense of the party, at the
expense of the country. And you know,
that they're ecstatic in Likud to see
her go,
but they don't realize that it really
makes no difference. She's going to talk
there even louder and the Likud faction
wasn't meeting anyway, so it
it she's only gotten to be a bigger
headache for Netanyahu.
>> Is this not a setback for him, though?
>> Uh it is a setback if you think that she
brings votes, you know, it certainly
looks like there's chaos within the
party, that it's a mess over there, uh
but uh Gila Gamliel, who uh
was looking like she was on the outside,
now she's back in
and uh
the Likud were waiting to see what
happens with the reserved slots and
Netanyahu has. He's kept his cards close
to his chest
>> and playing out till the 11th hour is a
good thing to do when you're playing
this kind of political game. I made
mention earlier of a winter. He's been
speaking to Israeli Channel 12 just
moments ago. What is his latest message?
He is certainly spicing things up across
the political landscape right now.
>> He isn't, you know, every time he talks
he puts more handcuffs on himself. You
know, he he says now he won't join a
government led by Bennett. He won't join
a government led by Lieberman, which,
you know, might seem far-fetched at the
moment, but
what if Lieberman and Bennett
joined together and got more seats than
Eisenkot at the end of you know, they
ran separately and then they got to the
president uh
with more seats than Eisenkot and
presented themselves together as a
candidate with maybe a rotation for
prime minister. And then you've got a
right-wing alternative to Netanyahu that
could potentially form a government.
Now, if Ofer Winter keeps his promise,
which he like swore on Jerusalem,
then he wouldn't be able to join them.
He already said, as you saw at at the
beginning here, that he won't join a
government that will or that won't pass
a law forcing ultra-Orthodox into the
army before the government is even
formed. That's not going to happen,
either.
So, he's making decisions here that
appear
unrealistic that might hurt him.
>> He certainly is very vocal on one of the
most hot-button issues in this election,
and that is the draft exemption issue.
So polarizing right now. Talk to us
about the kinds of issues that are going
to be top of mind when voters do go and
cast their ballot on the 27th of
October.
>> So, it's looking more and more like that
ultra-Orthodox issue will be a huge one.
That it has never really happened before
that that's been such a big issue when
people vote here. And that could hurt uh
Netanyahu, who made all these agreements
with the ultra-Orthodox and passed some
of what they wanted, not all of it. It
could hurt Bezalel Smotrich if he ends
up running without Ofer Winter. And then
theoretically could help Winter
if he crosses the electoral threshold,
and there's no guarantee that he will.
It could help Lieberman, it could help
Eisenkot, it could help Bennett.
We'll see what all the constellations
are. Monday and Tuesday are the days
that the lists are going to be
submitted, and there's one thing that
journalists
and politicians have in common, which is
that we don't do anything until right
before deadline.
>> [laughter]
>> And talking about that deadline, but
it's a little Smotrich.
Many concerned that he won't make the
threshold. Certainly, his supporters
would be worried. Talk to us about his
plans and his joint run with Moshe
Feiglin right now.
>> The finance minister is the worst job
you could have if you want to make
friends. You know, you got to make all
kinds of cutbacks and everything.
Um and uh so, a lot of people are angry
at him and the also the ultra-Orthodox
issue. It's his people that that got
killed by disproportionate numbers who
served by disproportionate numbers
uh in the wars over the last couple
years, and then they might punish him
for it, and it could be that over winter
splitting that vote could bring them
both down, which would uh perhaps lead
to Netanyahu being brought down. It's
fascinating.