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Can Iraq disarm its militias on time?

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The situation along the Iraq-Syria border is escalating as Iran-backed militias intensify their presence, prompting Syria to raise its military alert levels and deploy additional forces near the frontier. While Damascus has not made public statements regarding this deployment, it occurs against a backdrop of significant pressure on Baghdad, which faces an approaching September 30th deadline to bring these armed factions under state control. Despite Prime Minister Mohammed Shiah Al-Sudani's repeated promises to disarm all militias and consolidate weapons under government authority, the reality remains starkly different; ongoing attacks by these groups and their resistance against Iraqi security forces suggest that full disarming is still far from achievable within the given timeframe. The core of this crisis lies in how Iran utilizes these proxy networks as a sophisticated "toolbox of terror" to project power across the region without direct state involvement. Intifad Kadbar, an expert on Iraq's internal dynamics, explains that many militias are no longer autonomous entities led by local commanders but are instead operated directly by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operatives stationed inside Iraq. This shift is exemplified by recent attacks attributed to Houthi forces in Yemen being launched from Iraqi soil using support from Popular Mobilization Forces units, demonstrating Iran's ability to orchestrate regional aggression through these proxies while maintaining plausible deniability for its own government. The strategic implications of this buildup are particularly dangerous due to the border's role as a critical supply route connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria. Evidence of this threat includes the recent capture by Syrian forces of a tanker loaded with advanced weaponry, such as fiber optic cables and stealth drones designed to inflict heavy casualties on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon. These sophisticated arms are intended to alter the balance of power in that sector, yet their transit through Iraqi territory highlights how Iraq remains partially controlled by these militias, who have even surrounded Iraqi army units attempting to reclaim areas south of Baghdad, forcing a military withdrawal and underscoring the severe risks facing regional stability.
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The border between Syria and Iraq is now coming under growing pressure from Iranbacked militias. The Syrian military has raised its alert level, recalling personnel from leave and reportedly deploying additional forces near the border. Although Damascus has not publicly commented on the move, it comes as Baghdad faces a September 30th deadline to bring the Iranbacked armed factions under state control. That's less than two months away. And in the midst of renewed militia attacks and resistance from armed factions, Prime Minister Aliyah Zedi's promise to bring all weapons under state control still seems pretty far out of reach. Joining us to discuss more is Intifad Kadbar, chairman of the Kurdish Protection Action Council in Washington as well as a former spokesperson for the deputy prime minister of Iraq. Antifad, always great to have you with us here on I24 News. What is driving this military buildup along the Iraq Syria border? Good to be with you, Nicole. Uh, the militias in Iraq are a huge problem. They are proxies of Iran. Moreover, if you dive in into the details of how they are behaving or operating is more frightening because now they are not even run by the militia leaders themselves or I call them the militia lords. They're run by IRGC operatives inside Iraq. There's about five dozens of those operatives in Iraq running them. But Nicole, if you look at the recent attack on Saudi Arabia, you see there's a very troubling detail, the attack was done by the Houthis on behalf of the Iran by the Houthies from Iraq. The S shows you how Iran is using all kind of terror uh paratus to like a toolbox of terror to attack the region. So Iraq was only a place where this militias the Houthis used it with with help of the PMF Shabi to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia against Iran and that is troubling for the region. There are also I've been told from Iraqi sources there has been number high number of militias maneuvering on the Syrian Iraqi border. You know, this border is extremely important, Nicole, for Iran because it's the way the way that Iran could transfer weapons and fighters through Iraq through Syrian border to Hezbollah of Lebanon. And now Syria's chalking this supply route. So it is a very troubling and I I bet the Syrian government has has I've heard sorry the Syrian government president Ashara send messages to Iraq that they are aware of these militia uh maneuvers and they are wary of it and they're not going to sit on their hands and they're going to stand on it. So tension is very high although it looks a little bit quiet. Is there a real risk of this Syria Iraq border becoming a new front in the regional conflict or or is it more about moving weapons and fighters like you mentioned? >> Yes, Nicole, it is there is a risk and the risk I can articulate it for you this way. Uh the Syrian government captured a tanker like a month ago, few weeks ago uh crossing from Iraq to Syria coming obviously from Iran which was loaded with uh fiber optics cables drones which are used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli soldiers and kill them in southern Lebanon uh because they are undetectable or difficult to detect. So they do these surprise attacks and kill I call it from my military experience weapons which could change the ground rules of the battle in southern Lebanon. I think in light of the Lebanese Israeli negotiations and the US intermediary role uh the Iran was trying to send this weapons to inflict high losses on the Israeli soldiers and change the balance of the battle. So Syria obviously doesn't want to be part of this uh mayhem. Doesn't want to be part of this conflict. And they captured this uh big truck, a big tanker filled of very sophisticated uh quality oriented weapons, as I said, to change the battle front in southern Lebanon. So this is how dangerous it is. I mean the Iraqi government, Prime Minister Zadis trying very very hard to secure the situation. I also recall, I may add, Iraqi forces went to Jerusale, which is an area south south of Baghdad occupied by these militias and they tried to enter and then they were surrounded by the militias according to my sources and then the Syria the militias fire shots in the air and the Iraqi army forces has to withdraw. So Iraq is still for a great part of it controlled by the militias uh attacking countries in the in the Gulf on behalf of the Houthis and other proxies and also crossing weapons or try to cross weapons to Lebanon through Syria. >> A border that we will continue to have to keep our eye on it sounds like. Antifad Kbar appreciate you joining us on i24 News. Thank you. >> Thank you.