Submind YouTube summaries
Thumbnail for Can a new mechanism prevent a catastrophic miscalculation in Syria?

Can a new mechanism prevent a catastrophic miscalculation in Syria?

Watch on YouTube

Video summary

Following a high-level meeting in Amman between Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shehbani and Israeli Mossad chief Roman Goldman, reports indicate that Syria and Israel have agreed to establish a joint security deconfliction mechanism involving Turkey as well. This new arrangement is reportedly being supervised by American and Jordanian officials and was finalized while the Syrian minister was in the Jordanian capital. The primary goal of this mechanism is to prevent catastrophic miscalculations along the border, though its success hinges heavily on Israeli willingness to engage, given that Syria has repeatedly offered to adhere to a renewed version of the 1974 agreement since the beginning of the conflict. Despite these offers, trust remains low between the two nations, and recent Israeli strikes have complicated any hope for immediate peace talks or long-term diplomatic breakthroughs. A significant point of contention regarding this mechanism is Israel's concern over Turkish influence in Syria, specifically the fear that Turkish forces or weapons could be positioned near its border. Syrian officials firmly reject these fears, emphasizing that Syria shares a 1,000-kilometer border with Turkey and views Ankara as a strategic ally essential for its national security and economic recovery. Over the past fourteen years, Turkey has hosted more than five million Syrian refugees and provided critical support for rebuilding Syria's economy and military infrastructure after the Assad regime bombed various towns and cities. Consequently, Syria's foreign policy is driven by its own national interests rather than Israeli anxieties, and the country maintains that it has no intention of using its territory as a base to threaten neighbors or engage in war with Israel. The interviewee highlights a shift in Syrian doctrine under President Bashar al-Assad, which prioritizes avoiding conflict with all neighbors and resolving issues through diplomacy even with traditional adversaries like Hezbollah. This new approach aims to position Syria as an economic center in the region rather than a battlefield, a stance that explicitly welcomes Israeli participation in this peaceful framework. However, the speaker argues that instead of reaching out to offer help or negotiate directly, Israeli leaders have opted for military strikes, which undermines the potential for trust-building. The Syrian position remains clear: they are ready to address security concerns directly through negotiation to ensure both sovereignty and safety, a stance that is supported by their own officials and even advised upon by Turkey itself. Ultimately, the viability of this new deconfliction mechanism depends on whether Israel can overcome its hesitation and engage with the Syrian government as proposed. While Syria insists that its relationship with Turkey is non-negotiable and essential for its survival, it remains open to including Israel in a broader diplomatic effort to stabilize the border region. The hope expressed by Syrian representatives is that if both sides sit down at the negotiation table, they can create a functional system to de-escalate tensions and protect lives on both sides of the border. Without this mutual willingness to cooperate, the mechanism risks remaining just another report without tangible impact on the ground, leaving the potential for future peace talks dependent on overcoming deep-seated mistrust and differing strategic calculations.
Read the full video transcript
Well, after a high-level meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shehbani and Israeli Mossad chief Roman Goldman, Syria and Israel have reportedly agreed to establish a joint Syrian-Turkish-Israeli security deconfliction mechanism. The mechanism will operate under American-Jordanian supervision and was agreed upon while al-Shehbani was in the Jordanian capital of Amman. US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, who heavily criticized the Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase, he was also participated in that meeting. Well, for more we're joined now by Omar al-Mukdad, a Syrian journalist and filmmaker. Omar, I know this is still reports right now, but let's talk about this mechanism. Syria, Turkey, and Israel, what would it actually change on the ground? >> Thanks for having me on. In fact, everything depends on Israeli acceptance of such mechanism because Syria has offered uh multiple time in in the past offered Israel uh that to stick with 1974 agreement or at least a renewed version and uh that Syria would abide uh by and called Israel the same thing. But the Israeli leaders at this point they they were shying away from such an agreement because the trust still not there between the two countries. Unfortunately, the uh the the Israeli attack is also has put at risk any future uh talk about peace or whatever that might result from such an agreement because what Syria really wanted from this agreement is to keep Israel away from Syria's business and to allow some time uh so a trust can be built between two countries so that we might move to the next step and start talking about long-lasting peace between the two countries. But unfortunately, the Israeli leaders, it seems to me that they have their own um calculations when it comes to Syria, and they they've been shying away from uh such a move for a long time now, for 2 years. >> Well, there's a lot of concerns. You say trust on both sides. Right now, Israel's concern is this Turkish influence. So, when it comes to any sort of a deconfliction mechanism, can Syria actually promise that Turkish forces or weapons will not be positioned near Israel or pose a threat? >> Well, first of all, let's put it this way. Syria and Turkey share a border front, a 1,000-km border front, and Turkey represent a strategic ally for Syria's strategic depth. It's our land gate to Europe, and Syria can't shy away from having the best relationship available with Turkey. Turkey has been backing Syria, uh Syria revolution, for 14 years. It's provided uh Syrian uh refugees with a safe haven, hosted more than 5 million Syrians over the last 14 years, when Assad regime was bombing Syrian towns and cities. So, yes, and also it has an economic significance for Syria. It's helping uh Syria rebuild itself and rebuild its army, its economy, and everything. So, yes, Syria foreign policy is determined by uh Syria's national interest, not by Israeli fears. And regarding uh Israel, Syria has said said multiple times, from the President Bashar al-Assad to the foreign minister, said multiple times, allow the negotiation diplomacy on, let's sit down on the negotiation table, address your security concerns, and we are more than happy to address it and to put it under test. That's for Syria's official position toward Israel. But, this ex- rhetoric exchange between Turkey and Israel, Syria has nothing to do with it. And Syria has not interested to go into war with Israel, is not interested to make its land and territory as a base for anyone from anywhere to go and impose a threat to its neighbors. That's the official position of Syria, and Syria has been saying that for the last 2 years. And unfortunately, it seems to me that the Israeli leaders are still have something else to say in this regard. But, for Syria, as I say that keep saying can't shy away from that relationship with Turkey. Turkey is a strategic ally for Syria. This relationship will remain in place. It has nothing to do with Israel. If Israel has any security concern at this point, all they have to do sit down with the Syrian delegations, address these concerns directly, work a mechanism to de-escalate to work on both sides of the border, so Syria's sovereignty will be protected and Israeli safety and security will be ensured. Nobody has a problem with that. Not the Syrian officials, not me, not even the even the Turks never interfere actually with Syria and say, "Hey, don't go away and don't sign an agreement with Israel." Actually, Turkey is the one who's been advising the Syrian officials to have the best relationship with Israel and to eliminate that that uh >> What do you mean by that that Turkey was the one advising Syria to have these good relationships with Israel? What more can you share? >> It's It's simply that Syria uh is in a situation right now that can't uh and it won't be able to go into war with anybody. Not now, not in the future. I said this before on i 24 News that I keep saying this. The new Syrian doctrine right now is zero uh problems with our neighbors. We don't want problems. We don't want wars. Uh try to allow diplomacy always to tackle any of the issue even with people who's known to be your enemy. Even Hezbollah by the way, we tried through diplomacy to push it away from the Syrian border, not just by war. So, this is the the new Syrian doctor. Syria wants to rebuild itself. It's not interested to go into war. Would want to be an economic center in the region. That's the doctrine that Ahmad al-Shara came with. And by the way, Israel are welcome to be part of that. But unfortunately, the Israeli leader instead of reaching out to the Syrian government and offering help, they decided to send their fighter jets to start attacking Syria. And this is the problem. >> We'll have to wait and see what does come from this reported new deconfliction mechanism then. Omar al-Mulki, great to have you with us and and hear your insight on this. Appreciate it. >> Thank you.