Burry's Flutter Stocks is a BUY! + Burry's Bets & Shorts

Good day fellow investors. I get these emails from Michael Burry. He's very active and I think also you enjoy looking at what he's doing. There are always some interesting information there, learning opportunities. Last time we did this update, we'll go also through the stocks. 44,000 views. I thank you all for that view. Michael Burry says warnings, crashes, buying a lot, going short, but something here on the email list I have to send an invoice to Interactive Brokers for your clicks on checking those and that will come back to analyzing also Michael Burry stock, which is Flutter Entertainment. That is now competing with Interactive Brokers. I am marketing Interactive Brokers because I'm using it. I find it simple, easy. Also from the feedback from my research platform, a lot of investors like it globally, smooth working, big markets, cheap commissions, good interest on US dollars if you have. And to support the channel, please check it in the link in the description below. See whether such an international broker might be fit for you to build that value investment pillar, perhaps away from the US, which is something we'll discuss in a following video. But let's go back to Burry buying the mortgage banks there, Mercado Libre, Lulu, Fiserv, Zoetis, the pharma stock. I'm not doing pharma, so don't expect much on that. Short the semiconductor index, Oracle, Nabors. We also have Nvidia, Palantir, Tesla, the shorts there. Largest positions, Adobe, JD, then the animal pharma company, Flutter, which we will focus here. Fiserv reported earnings, still in transition, so still to develop. Mercado Libre saying it will be nice at 1,300. Of course, Flutter is a buy, especially Michael Burry buy, and a lot of you have commented to discuss. So, we'll focus on this in this video. Here we start with the competitive scalchi, things like that. Whenever I listen to a podcast, there is a discussion on that, but you can also use it as informational purposes. You don't have to bet on that. I'm certainly not recommending. But, let's discuss Flutter that is a bet on government intervention lowering the challengers, taxing them, burdens, regulations, things like that. That should push the dominating company there higher. Very interesting situation, but before that, it's not a Michael Burry video without a crash discussion. He says that we are now in the 1% of 145 years of returns to earnings are distorted by stock-based compensation. You can see here, I always discuss this. The dividend yield is at historical lows. This is the dividend yield that brought the 10% stock market returns. Now, the market has completely changed. Price and yield don't matter anymore. It's just momentum going higher. Everything looks fine on the surface. That's obvious market reaching all-time highs, but earnings are not that good. Stock-based compensation takes a lot from them. That's not reported in Wall Street earnings. Circular investing, all that growth in earnings circular from open AI and tropic hyperscalers giving the money to get them back money back. Fake earnings. So, when this bubble turns, it's going to get ugly. And the very interesting situation is that only 1.92% of time has the market been 20% below peak in the last 15 years. That's something that has never happened in history. Their investment bots, the leverage, the stability, all that is just creating a big bubble that when it breaks, Michael Burry predicts a 1987-type crash. The signs are starting to get here, perhaps situational awareness, going from 400 million to 45 billion and then in a week from 45 billion to 10 billion saved by Citadel. And now investing again because there is simply so much trading capital, gambling capital out there. But okay, near the top, possible type fall, and that's why he's short Oracle, semiconductors, Palantir, Micron, NIBIUS, Caterpillar, things like that. He says that we are in a huge bubble, automatic buying that turns into automatic selling when that bubble bursts. We discussed already tragic accounting, credit deteriorating. We discussed just the hyperscalers, why I'm not buying Google, Microsoft, Amazon. I discussed more the depreciation of the investments over the long term and how that will weigh on net income. Michael Burry discusses stock-based compensation, accounting, things like that. So there is a whole house of cards going on. Looks great on the surface. The market is not thinking. The market is at all-time highs. Might continue, and that's something we discussed often. 3 years ago, 8,000 easily possible. We are close to there. 2 years ago, 2030, 10,000. I should maybe make this 15,000 all else equal if this continues. What's driving the market? This was at the beginning of this year going down or push it to 8,300 in 2026. This is the mechanics of the market. It's looks like we will be there. However, there are also people people that are bigger crash fans that Burry like Spitznagel first 8,000 2026-2027 and then an 80% crash in real terms. I'll put all the links to the videos I mentioned in the description below alongside the Interactive Brokers link, of course. It's hard to predict when will the market crash. Michael Burry is short, but he clearly states shorting is not for everyone and he's ready to cut losses as soon as the positions move against him. For now, he's doing well on all positions short except for Nvidia. Let's go to the stocks. Mercado Libre good as we already mentioned shorting things like we discussed Oracle in a video recently. Interesting bet on AI, but if those things turns out as Burry is predicting, it will look even uglier. You have the stock prices he's buying. So, I think we are close there to everything. We have some of these in the quadrant that we are following. So, we'll update more on them when we come to the end of month quadrant update. Adobe as a bet, JD for example that we discussed. He had quite a show. I don't know whether he has it again. He hasn't discussed this Hong Kong situation for a while. Maybe we'll get an update soon. Let's go to Flutter Entertainment. More than 60% crash over the last year. What's going on? Well, there are challenges. The market is expected to almost triple according to Flutter. For 368 billion, nine is now it's 111 billion. Forecasts some there are big differences in forecasts, but the growth is expected to be there. They have all these bets. I don't know whether you are familiar with them. I am certainly not. 10 million active just on the FIFA World Cup, things like that. Doing okay, but then you're looking at the average monthly players and this is whenever you see a drop of 11%. This is a big hit for every company. Revenues not growing staggeringly, just 3%. Net loss, when you look at the net loss, it is a little bit skewed because we'll discuss that later. They made a lot of acquisitions. Nevertheless, the leverage ratio is going up, not down, which is another concern for the market. Change in CEO. They will go into savings to change the leverage ratio, but it's all a bet on their continuing to grow over time. The target is for 20 billion according to the 2024 capital market day, 20 billion in revenue. If they grow a little bit, they will likely hit it next year. They need what? 15% growth. They are not there. So, a little bit below expectations, but okay. If we look at revenues guidance, now a little bit lower. Share repurchases already complete, but this is also very important. 500 million of restructuring costs, 800 of capital expenditures. And this is the depreciation and amortization of acquired intangibles that they're required to do. And this is something that they already spent the cash or issued shares. So, this has to be given back for the free cash flow. Interest expense on the debt is growing fast, which is another issue. Unallocated corporate overhead also high. If I look a little bit at the financials, see here parabolic growth over the last 5-6 years, constantly losing money net income from that accounting perspective because they did some acquisitions, but mostly they merged and you see that in the goodwill and other intangibles that went from 4 billion to 16 billion and other intangibles from half a billion to 6 billion. So, this is plus 20 billion of intangibles that they merged with the Stars Group that they acquired things, for example, the last 5% that they acquired of the FanDuel, they paid a valuation of 31 billion, which is double the current market capitalization. And apart from issuing share, there is also this boom in long-term debt. Here they issued the shares for the merger. Now they've been stable despite the buybacks, not much result there yet. However, I'm looking a little bit at the cash flows. Okay, net income negative. We get back the amortization of goodwill and then we have positive cash flows immediately. However, I look here at the numbers, asset write-downs and restructuring costs significant, stock-based compensation significant, but still cash from operations 1.3. If you're doing buybacks, mhm, this should then also be accounted for. This also accounted for. Of course, they say it's a one-off, but there are certainly issues. You can see the acquisitions, more purchases of intangible assets, repurchase of common stocks, no dividend. The free cash flow here I I would lower it down by a little bit, 25% for the stock-based compensation and the restructuring costs. So, we have an aggressive company that has expanded through mergers and acquisitions, debt buybacks still doing, but piling the debt. They are doing 800 million on buybacks on 600 million of interest costs. All very levered, all very gambly as the business is. So, adjusted items, and the thing here is the duration is issue. If you issue shares, if you take on debt that you don't plan to pay off, you plan to hold it for eternity, you are getting a duration, long-term liability for an intangible asset that you don't know how much will work. So, this is one bet. Short-term intangibles versus long-term liabilities, short-term assets. That mismatch is one that Warren Buffett always said go away from it. However, the market is likely expected to grow. There are the cash flows. Compare the cash flows with the market cap. If these cash flows double over the next 5 years on the huge growth expected by the market, the stock will double, too. Let me know if you know the brands there. However, everything is based on high online advertising. There is no moat. All these challengers are coming. Even Interactive Brokers is coming. They, yes, are the leader there. It is very possible that they keep their place, but I think the key factor to understand here, this is not cash flows, this is not this, this is not that. This is just a bet that after the summer, regulators step into the market and make it difficult for the challengers for hitting all the checkpoints on the regulation, and that would give a boost to Flutter. That will then grow, that will then get exuberance 2x, and that's your 2x. It is a buy for a 2x, but you also have to accept the volatility as you have seen there was plenty, but perhaps we have reached the bottom because there is value in these international brands. Worst-case scenario, somebody will buy it off, there would still remain some value. Likely, let's say 10 billion if they sell everything. So, that is a margin of safety. So, your upside is 2x, 3x, and there is a margin of safety. It can look ugly. You can take that bet if you have such a portfolio. Speaking of such a portfolio with all these 3 to 7% bets, that's what Michael Burry is doing. Also being short on the other side. Largest position for me and other bet, Adobe, JD. Okay, you would not go with a big position on jd.com. Video, I'll also put that, I don't have the thumb here. Very interesting situation, and let's look how those situations evolved. Lululemon, at 19 bought Burry. 42 for PayPal, Fiserv at 48, Adobe 193, MercadoLibre 1,629. That was more than a month ago. Lululemon is up 20%, Adobe is up 34%, JD is up 29%, PayPal is up 43%. We have discussed those, we'll keep watching on those. Very interesting. I'm not going to put Flutter here in the bet quadrant because it's simply not my style, gambling company. But, I always find it very interesting to see what Michael Burry is doing. I'm a much more of a value margin of safety investors. See how it fits you. We'll keep discussing ideas. Always very interesting to learn how the market is working, the underlying components that Berry explains very well. Check my research platform for what I'm doing. Thanks for watching. And I'll see you in the next video.