Bitcoin’s Bottom Is In, Says Kyle Samani — But What Sends It Higher?

Hello, and welcome back to Coin Telegraph's Trade Secrets, our very own live show here at Coin Telegraph. My name is Kieran, I'm your host today, and I'm joined by Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani. Kyle, how you doing? >> Hey Kieran, pleasure to be on the show. Thanks for having me back. It's been a little bit. >> Where do you think we are in the crypto market right now? I mean, some people are starting to say that we're entering the early stages of a bull market again, and others aren't so sure that we're really out of the bear market yet. So, what's your thoughts? Where do you think we are? >> Um, I think the bottom is in. And, uh you know, again, like the the tokenization cycle does continue. Obviously, the genius act passed, and stablecoins are growing. Um, all of the structural tailwinds are are there. Um, and I think you're going to see an explosion of social trading, and just new more sophisticated ways to to trade. Um, all built on top of crypto rails. So, I don't really see that slowing down. And I'd say at this point, it's pretty clear that there's been enough accumulation happening from enough long-term believers over the last, call it, 6 months that it seems pretty unlikely that we're going to retest, you know, 60k for Bitcoin, and whatever, you know, $60 for Solana. I don't even remember what the low was for Ethereum. >> [snorts] >> Um, pretty unlikely to me we go back to those levels. >> And now, just moving on to Bitcoin as well. Obviously, we're hanging around that $80,000 mark. Um, a lot of people are still questioning whether we're going to hit 100 by the end of this year. Polymarket bets don't really think so. So, what's your thoughts around there? Do we really need something big? Like, do we need the Clarity Act to pass? Do we need the midterm elections to look more favorable for crypto? What do you think needs to happen to see a meaningful kind of pump in Bitcoin's price? >> Uh, generally, Bitcoin is probably the asset that I have the the least strong views about. Um cuz it's the largest and the most macro. Um generally I think Bitcoin will probably reclaim 100k. No view on timing. I'd say this year seems improbable, but not impossible. Beyond that, it's kind of boring. It's doing its thing. Uh I don't think the Clarity Act has any bearing on Bitcoin directly. Uh I know look at may it may the BTC price may um uh you know do well if the Clarity Act passes. Not because Clarity does anything for Bitcoin. Clarity as a matter of law doesn't affect Bitcoin really at all. >> But in terms of just general um euphoria in crypto, you know, BTC is likely to at least go up. Although sh- it should go up a lot less than the other stuff that is much more in- directly impacted by Clarity. I don't really think midterms impact Bitcoin at all either. So you know, probably the things that are going to more drive Bitcoin will be things like Bessent's commentary and like rate you know, yield curve control and those kinds of things as those kinds of actions tend to drive macro people towards the the fixed supply type of asset such as Bitcoin. Um but obviously we have no idea what what Bessent's going to do or how that's going to shake out. >> Every year exchanges get hacked, wallets get drained, and keys get stolen. NGRAVE ZERO is built to make that impossible. No USB, no Bluetooth, no Wi-Fi. Every transaction is signed offline and verified by QR code. It's the only wallet certified EAL7, the highest security rating a financial device can hold. >> [music] >> Four layers of tamper protection. Biometric access. Nothing gets in. Back up your key on graphene. Steel, >> [music] >> fireproof, built to outlast disasters. Track your portfolio in the Liquid app. Your keys never leave the device. Engrave. Own your crypto. >> What crypto assets do you think then would benefit the most in terms of potential price movements from the passing of the Clarity Act? >> Uh I mean Solana is like unequivocally the best positioned asset to benefit from the Clarity Act. Um the Clarity Act specifically has an eight-prong decentralization test um written into it. And today the only two networks that actually check those boxes are Solana and Ethereum. So Ethereum mainnet. One of those eight criteria is that you have to have an open-source um network that's permissionless with a globally distributed validator set. Um so by definition all the L2s fail. Um by definition um all the permit the new kind of corporate chains such as Tempo and Arc fail. And so basically of the chains that are relevant um the only two that that will actually pass that test today are Ethereum and Solana. Um obviously we'll see if the other chains, you know, try and get there and and obviously they can try. I think most of them are going to have pretty serious problems because they made so many architectural decisions predicated on not being an open-source globally distributed um system that it's going to be pretty pretty hard for them to move in that direction. Um so I think Solana directly and then obviously all of the the kind of core Solana primitives um are also very likely to benefit in in a pretty profound way. >> Do you think there's a possibility we see another Solana-based altcoin season then as well? >> I mean it seems impossible that it won't eventually happen. I mean I think we already kind of had one over the last couple months. Um I know Robinhood has changed and getting a lot of press, but I mean I think there's been a lot of runners on Solana, too. So um yes, I mean human greed and market market cyclicality guarantees it will happen again. >> Yeah, and just on Solana as well. Obviously, Solana's had periods of outperformance with Ethereum as well. So, what do you think over the next cycle now? Do you think that Solana's got a decent chance of repeating that and outperforming Ethereum in the coming years? >> Yeah, I do. I mean, look, quite frankly, today no one really uses Ethereum. I mean, there there's some usage but like it's just a a a fraction of Solana's usage in terms of real people every day clicking buttons and doing things. You know, Ethereum still leads on two basically metrics, stable coins issued and then um stable coins borrowed against ETH as collateral. Beyond those two metrics, ETH is, you know, in third, fourth, fifth, sixth place on on basically every other metric you can look at. Um and I don't really see a path to that changing. So, um yeah, not been optimistic of Ethereum in a long time. Continue to be bearish. It's a $400 billion to $300 billion asset that has questionable value accrual, if any, um and is growing or not growing at all. Um and it's very obvious that the core team is pretty checked out and not really trying to win. So, like I I don't know why you want to own this thing at $300 billion. There's plenty of other better things you can own at at much more reasonable prices. >> Do you see the the flip of Solana and Ethereum a possibility? >> Yes, unequivocally. >> And when when what timeline and I guess what needs to happen for for that? Is it just continued usage on Solana and and like you said, delayed and reduced interest on Ethereum? Or what do you think needs to be the catalyst for that switch to happen? >> Yeah, I I think I think probably over over this market cycle, I think you'll see a lot of OG Ethereum people Yeah. Like like companies built around Ethereum. I don't look I don't think they're going to like formally trash Ethereum. That that's probably unnecessary, but you'll basically see them give up on it. I think this includes things like for example, the default network that Coinbase has for withdrawing stable coins or any of the other major exchanges. The default network that the market makers use for settling trades. Um there's all you know the default thing that the custodians like that go to Anchorage and these other guys. What what do they kind of try to nudge customers towards? I suspect over the next market cycle, you'll see kind of the you know the default for all of those kinds of companies for the last you know five, six, seven years has been Ethereum. I think they all they all know the writing's on the wall and I think they'll all kind of like switch their default over to um you know to Solana because it's just like it is the most functional network for for all of them and it's just easier for all of them to consolidate their operations around Solana to the to the best of their the you know to the extent that they can. >> And like I remember talking to uh I think it's the president of the Coinbase asset management around what was third place in the eyes of institutions and it was like the obvious Bitcoin and Ethereum at that point around a year ago and then maybe third was Solana mixed with XRP. I mean, what's your what's your thoughts when you hear that? >> I mean, I don't really think there's any institutions buying XRP. XRP is clearly a retail coin. Um lots of retail people like it, talk about it, trade it. Good for them. I don't think there's any sophisticated capital in the world that is actively buying XRP at I think what it's a trading at 150 billion FDV or something like that these days. I I don't think there's any sophisticated money in the world buying that. >> Um I'd love to hear your thoughts around hyper liquid as well because every crypto executive has been talking around that over the last couple of months and um, you know, we've seen recent new all-time highs there as well. Arthur Hayes said that there's not really much more upside at the moment for Hype and he's looking at other opportunities. So, um, yeah, first of all, what is your thoughts on Hyperliquid? >> Look, I've been publicly pretty negative on Hyperliquid. Not really I've never really commented on the token price. Uh, and I generally don't tend to comment on token prices, especially for things I don't own, which I don't own any Hype. Look, what I'll say about Hype is the asset seems to be priced to perfection. The thing is trading at 80 billion FDV. Um, I think it's 20 billion or thereabouts of circulating. So, it's not something like that. I forget the exact ratios. You have a huge amount of private wealth that's locked up. Um, and so the market cap is is just by definition inflated just for that reason and that reason alone. And the way that most people talk about Hyperliquid is they they seem to imply, "Well, Hyperliquid is one forever and there's there's no there's no alternatives." I think that's a very silly thing to believe. I suspect over the next 12 months as the market realizes, "Hey, you know, there are competitive alternative alternatives um, that are either that are competitive and in some cases better than Hyperliquid, I expect to be um, uh, uh, the what's called the the the invin- sense of invincibility around the asset is likely to fade. Um, Ethereum was once invincible, Solana was once invincible, um, Hyperliquid today feels invincible. Uh, and I'm pretty confident that feeling will evaporate over the coming months. >> There's a bit more energy in the crypto market now, obviously after the recent bounce in Bitcoin. So, what's your I guess best risk reward bets right now in the crypto market that you're looking at? >> You know, some of my other large positions, I'm obviously very famous for this ball. I continue to own a huge Solana position. Uh I think Solana is going to be very well positioned to compete across spot and perps over the coming months and years. They already dominate spot today and I think they have a path to being very competitive in perps in the fairly near future. But let me touch on some of that like longer tail stuff that's a little more interesting. Probably there's two names that that come to mind. Uh the first is Helium net and the second is Camino. >> Mhm. >> Um I actually if you go to my website kylesamanii.com, um I published the I posted a couple months ago about Helium net. Um and I gave a presentation at the All In uh liquidity event um earlier this year. That presentation is is linked from my my blog post. Helium net today is the uh it's a a deep in play which is I know is a very slept on sector. Uh and Helium net is the uh today provides a mechanism where any device that needs to have centimeter level ac- GPS accuracy, Helium net has built a global network that supports that function. Um GPS satellites in the sky can only get you down to about 2 m of accuracy uh in the optimistic case. Uh and Helium net um there's a lot of devices that need centimeter level accuracy. Think robotic lawn mowers, drones, tractors, um all kinds of all kinds of uh smart AI robot type stuff of that nature. Today Helium net is the largest network in the world by a factor of I think three or four X um covering providing what's called real-time kinematics so that uh networks with that these devices can um localize themselves um to 1 cm precision. Helium net's been growing about three X per year for the last three years. I think it's going to grow three X again this year. Um and so they're just in a phenomenal position. It's a natural monopoly type of business much like a telecom network. Uh and the team is just executing all around. So I'm super excited about Helium net, very slept on, very under the radar, um but very exciting. Um you know, the other sleeper hit I'll throw out there is Kamino. Um, Kamino is uh the largest borrow and protocol on Solana today by a pretty wide margin. It's also the oldest. It's formally verified. It's super safe. Uh you know, I can confidently say I'm one of the largest users in the world of Kamino across their full range of products. I'm also uh one of the largest, if not the largest, holder of KMNO in the world other than maybe some of the employees. Um, so I have a really big position there. Um, cuz the Kamino team understands that like liquidity and borrow lend and RWAs are going to be the primary growth drivers of crypto in the in the years to come. And they have built all of the product and infrastructure in place to absolutely dominate in that product space. Uh so I'm super excited about everything Kamino's doing. And again, I I've accumulated a lot of Jito and a lot of KMNO over the last few months. >> Amazing. And you know, you mentioned AI as well. There's a lot of debate over whether any of those AI tokens are going to make a comeback that we saw um just a couple of years ago. I mean, do you think that they're all dead or do you think that there's still uh there's still a chance for some of those OG AI tokens to come back? >> I look in crypto, obviously random tokens move for any reason or no reason at all. Uh I think that's quite unlikely to change. What I can tell you is that uh I don't own any of them. So, I don't think I need to provide further comment. >> And just you mentioned social trading as well, which has obviously exploded uh recently. Can you give any advice for a retail investor that might be looking at that right now? Is that something you'd advise against or how would you approach that if they are if they wanted to jump right in? >> Um, uh look in general, social I'm not a a active user of FOMO or pump or any of the other products in that sector. My advice to people would be to tread cautiously. There's a lot of unrealized P&Ls that will never be realized. And also you should probably understand the apps are structurally designed for you to be the exit liquidity. Um Uh and that's a very unfortunate configuration. While I understand why that specific type of product is called a social trading product, um it is not what I'm personally excited about um because unfortunately there's a lot of structural elements of those products that lead to poor incentives and and bad outcomes for people. I think there are very pro-social um and and and effective ways to do social trading and investing and and unfortunately I don't think the current iteration is that although they are obviously popular and you know, at least for now. >> What do you think of Hunter Hunter Biden and his the launch of his meme coin laptop which is filed miserably? Did you expect that was going to happen or did you think it was going to have a similar performance to to Trump in some way? >> I definitely didn't know it was going to happen. Um not close to the Biden family, no interest in being close to the Biden family, would would prefer to kind of stay as far away as humanly possible. Hey man, have fun, do your thing, not not for me. I can tell you I will not be trading laptop token. >> I wanted to also ask you random again, we don't have to put this in it or not as well, just with Metaplanet all the controversy that's going on right now around the stock. I mean first of all, are you have you been keeping up across that as well? >> Um I can say as I'm following the news, you know, I am a board member of Forward which is another digital asset treasury company. So I probably have to say I'm going to there's not much more I can say other than yes, I'm I'm following what's going going on and continue to uh yeah, I'll say I'm following what's going on. >> I guess is there a way that investors can sometimes have misconceptions towards treasury companies and how they're operating and not exactly know the backlog. Obviously, we have just come out of bad times for Bitcoin, but is there anything you'd say that the misconceptions that people have towards treasury companies right now? >> Look, the history of crypto is that unscrupulous and in many cases bad actors are the people who were drawn to crypto. This has been true I mean, for the entirety of crypto basically. And uh obviously, despite the fact that many of crypto's most high-profile actors have turned out to be bad actors, the industry has not only survived, but has obviously grown in size, prominence, legitimacy, etc. over the last 15, 16 years. Um I think digital asset treasuries are just another version of that instantiation of that kind of same thing playing out. Um I obviously staked a lot of my own personal brand and reputation on Forward. You you know, in addition to Multicoin's investment into Forward, I personally invested $25 million into the company. And uh I haven't sold a single share. In fact, I bought a ton of Forward um shares and derivatives uh in March 31st of this year. So, I've increased my position very substantially as chairman of the board. And you know, with these things like the noise eventually weak hands eventually get washed out, bad actors eventually get washed out. And ultimately, that capital will flow to the strongest players who have the best balance sheets, the best operations, the best ethics. Uh and it's my hope that we can at Forward um win the hearts, minds, and trusts of those investors who understand the opportunity set for digital asset treasury companies and want their capital to be placed with, you know, well-to-do actors. >> Amazing. I guess just before we wrap up as well, I mean, what frustrates you the most right now within the crypto industry? >> I think the thing that frustrates me most is a lot of people especially people who've been around in crypto for a while have more or less given up on a lot of the ideals of crypto. Um and like to me like crypto is about fundamentally about permissionless finance. And having a and and and to be permissionless I think you need to be global and incredibly neutral. And unfortunately um a lot of the newer developments in crypto are explicitly eschewing those values in favor of trying to make some more money for themselves. Um and that's been very frustrating for me for me to see. Um I'm not a I'm not a purist by any means um but I do think that there is some importance to like understand the ethos of why this industry started, what got us here, and ultimately what do you want the world to be? Do you want all of finance to run on a single data center outside of Tokyo? Um is that does that even make sense? Um and uh you know, I I want global finance to be global. Um and not to be on you know, US East 1 in Virginia or or whatever. Like I want this stuff to be global and uh it's hard to do that. Um and only a handful of people are still really trying. >> Amazing. And uh just to wrap it up, Kyle, is by 2030 do you see it more likely that we see Solana reach $1,000 or go back to $20 again? >> Uh I'll take a thousand on that one over 20. >> Amazing. Thanks so much, man. I appreciate your time. >> Soren, thanks so much. >> Woo.