Bitcoin Likely to 4X in the Next 2 Years? | Erik Crown Breaks Down the Data

you are convinced the bare market is over. Can you point at the factors that make you so confident about that? >> Sure. Yeah. Basically, I saw all the signals that I needed to see that uh that pertain to Bitcoin having extremely high value um around that $60,000 low that we saw in July. And ultimately, it comes down to a lot of, you know, somewhat simple technical indicators and also onchain indicators like the weekly RSI getting below about 30. Mr. uh MVRV also going below about one. The PO multiple going below about spot five and the 21 weekly EMA stretching about 20 you know more than 25% from uh price that was also a big one. Uh we also saw some other things related to just the general uh sentiment like I created this apathy index over here. um that one was effectively at the lows. And another one that was really big for me um that I you know uh thought was kind of interesting was um the volume percentile uh measuring basically the volume that exchanges were doing was at some of the lowest lows that we've ever seen. And typically when those happen is after a major bare market, Bitcoin comes down and during that part there's actually a lot of volume on exchanges. People are trading a lot you know um it's very very exciting times despite it you know generally going down. However, what typically happens after that before the reversal is things get incredibly boring. You saw this in, you know, 2015. You saw this in 2017. You saw this in 2021 and 2022. You saw it recently here, too. I mean, damn, man. Bitcoin's, you know, around 60,000 bucks and trading in $100 ranges. It's crazy. and volume percentile, you know, to give a number on it was below 5 percentile, meaning that if we were to compare um the look back to it, we were seeing lower volume compared to basically 95% of the other days traded. So that typically happens when the market's very very uh apathetic, I guess, if that's a word. Um and uh and what happens around those times, reversals happen around those times. Other than that, we also saw what I thought was a pretty decent draw down from the all-time high. So, for me, it wasn't necessarily like, hey, this is absolutely the blow. I'm buying in. It was more so, hey, uh, I see really, really good value here, and I'm happy to buy in as a long-term investor because I believe, you know, based off of the data, this is going to be worth more if we fast forward 1 2 3 years out from now. I wanted to focus [music] on what you said in the latest video where you were saying that essentially if you buy Bitcoin more or less at this level so around 70,000 65,000 fast forward one year you would make a significant return. Correct. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, a lot of these things um so one of them was just simply when Bitcoin is more than 50% off of its high um which we've seen many times in the past. And if you go and just take any random day from when Bitcoin was more than 50% below its previous high and and by the way, of course, we did see that uh recently when Bitcoin was around $60,000. If you fast forward one year out from any one of those random days again when Bitcoin was below 50% of that previous high, the median return was over 116%. Which is crazy again just one year out. And if we and if we take that two years out that more than doubles I mean it gets close to triple at plus 337%. And that was a 96% probability to see that positive gain in comparison to the one uh to the one-year win rate which would have been about 87%. So, you know, just something as simple as that um is quite compelling to me. There's a lot of other things as well. You know, when I'm looking at the data over here and we're fast forwarding out even 6 months to a year, we're talking about gains, you know, well beyond 50% within 6 months. And in a year, you know, we're talking about in some cases X's uh in like X's meaning like, you know, multiples of uh of where you were at. Um so these sort of things again to me it's just like okay uh I don't need to be perfect on this low. I don't need to buy the exact low to make a [ __ ] ton of money. I just need to be, you know, within the vicinity of it. And uh and again, as a long-term holder, you know, doing things on spot, not on leverage. Uh this, I think, is the most relatable way that most people can uh you know, invest in Bitcoin and not lose their damn ass, basically. So, that was kind of the goal with that. That's why I was uh focusing a lot of my content around um you know, just presenting the you know, the straight up facts like, hey, if you're a long-term investor, there's good value here. If you're short-term trader, you know, that's a different game. But uh but hey uh so far so good. I'd say >> people are predicting that the end of the bare market sort of comes one year after the peak uh because that's what happened in uh in previous cycles. >> Yeah. I mean I I think the low is in so I don't care what that is. Um look I'm always open to things changing you know because I I always come from a trader background so I am always thinking about where am I going to be wrong because I know over some amount of time all my models will be proven incorrect. It's that's just the nature of models. They will all break. So, I've never really been beheld into like, well, Bitcoin topped on October 10th, so it must bottom on October 10th. Like, look, if I think that I see Bitcoin as good value and if I see signals of a, you know, of a low forming, which, you know, we've certainly seen, uh, I'm going to run with that and I don't really care, you know, how long it's been. Basically, I created a road map based upon all the statistics pertaining to September and then, uh, and then Q4 of this year. So, for September, um, you know, I do actually expect, uh, September to be green. And when we actually have seen September be a positive closing month, we've generally seen a very very similar sort of trajectory um both in terms of timing and in terms of returns. We do have a big event this month. We have obviously the FOMC, but the big one actually is the quad witching date where you have major expirations in equity options, in futures options and the index options and uh in futures in general. And this is like the these obviously happen four times a year and it is the biggest deal when it comes to markets. I don't really know why people don't talk about it, but these are where pretty much you see all the major reversals happen. But anyways, up until that date, we typically see Bitcoin actually have a green period. Now, I'm measuring the data between 2018 when CME futures listed to present because I believe that that is like the more modern era of Bitcoin. I think that that matters more. Just my take, you know, take it or leave it, I suppose. It's also more recent and I think that old data for Bitcoin, it gets really misconstrued with these crazy returns in both directions. Anyways, uh what we typically see there is about a 6 and a halfish uh percent return again meeting right there which would put Bitcoin actually at about 83,222 which actually would be in incredibly important. Why? Because Bitcoin would simultaneously make a new high a new weekly high above the previous swing high that we saw back in May at 82,000 or sorry it was uh 82,800. So even a short uh a short new high like that would be incredibly incredibly important for Bitcoin because anytime that we've seen the weekly trend flip where the weekly got a higher high, there's no more talk of a bare market. Yeah, you can get pullbacks. Sure, it definitely happens. You can get sharp pullbacks and get violent pullbacks, but an actual downtrend emerging from there, unlikely. Very, very unlikely, I would say. So September closing green, um what have we typically seen? Well, if Bitcoin closes September green, we'd go into the month of October, which is traditionally the best month for Bitcoin. Um, that has a median return, which is the highest med return of any month at 12 about 8%. And again, if we go off of those numbers earlier and kind of forecast a close, you know, at the end of September, somewhere a little bit above 80,000 bucks, let's say, if you apply that median return, let's just make it down to like 12%. That would put Bitcoin a little bit above 90,000 bucks, which again, uh, that's just for October. And of course, when we've seen a green Q3, which right now I think that that's extremely likely to see, uh, unless if Bitcoin literally closes September below the low of this quarter, which is uh 57750. Possible, yes, probable. I would say low probability. Um, but if we do see a green Q3, generally Q4 has has gone on to have uh some pretty nice gains. The median return there is about almost 28%. So, not only is October typically good when you get a green in September, but then the whole of Q4 has a pretty strong median return again, close to 28%. And if we apply that number again using my initial pin number of 78,000 bucks, that would put Bitcoin in low six digits again. So, I actually don't think it's that crazy for Bitcoin to see six digits uh sometime before end of year. Now, does Bitcoin finish above six digits? I don't know. Maybe just briefly above that. And again, when I'm thinking it as a trader or investor, I'm always thinking in terms of probabilities. I'm always going to choose a thing that's more likely to happen. Doesn't mean it's always going to happen, but if I have to bet, I'm going to bet on the thing that has a higher probability. And so, this would be it right here. And uh yeah, man, that's that's really what I got for you for the end of the year here. You look at this seasonality as a factor when you make these projections. there is a very limited amount of data of historical data around Bitcoin, but you still believe that the the data we have is still some somehow valuable to look at. >> Well, okay. So, this data right here is I mean, yes, it is it is somewhat uh low. You know, you got like what 15 or 16 years of Bitcoin, but let's compare that to the alternative, which is what people are using with the four-year cycle. Well, you only have three data points there. So, am I going to go off of 16 years or three data points? Uh, I mean, if you're going to if you're going to throw that back as a criticism, I just don't think it holds up because the other thing that people use is even worse [laughter] in my opinion in terms of just like general iterations, it's like, oh, you know, Bitcoin midterms or Bitcoin having it's like, okay, great. We have three data points. You know, you don't think that something new can happen? Like, come on, man. Uh, you know, there's going to be outliers here. We we don't even have enough to have a true sample size at this point. Like I said, 16 years ain't perfect, but it's it's it's multiples of that. Um, so again, it's served us. It's it's it served me well, you know, ever since I started to reference a lot of this stuff. I'm going to keep going with it. Like I said, it's not always going to be perfect, but uh as long as it's directionally correct, I'm happy. >> I was talking to Benjamin Cowan uh a couple of weeks ago. We did an interview with him and he said an interesting thing. He acknowledges the fact that uh there's not such a big reason to hold Bitcoin as it used to be because the returns are not that great anymore. Like if you look at the fiveyear time frame, the past five years in terms of annual average returns, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500. And also in total returns, that's that's exactly the same uh situation. Do you think that is there is still a reason to hold Bitcoin for the for the long term when you can just hold the S&P? >> Yeah, to be honest, I think that that's a very maybe I'm just hearing him out of context, but that sounds like a very uh immature assessment. Um the reason being is because look, Bitcoin does have better better returns than tradition marks than you'll ever see there for, you know, a major indicy like SPY or triple Q's or anything like that. But you have to time things right. You can't just blindly hold it. Bitcoin goes through cycles, you know, as do they as well, but Bitcoin, of course, being a little bit more of an immature asset. It has these big draw downs followed by a big upside as well. So, if you're not going to be able to time those things or if you can't even just moderately get things somewhat right, uh then yes, you know, it's it will factually speaking, it will not have as good returns if you're literally just buying and holding at the worst time and comparing that versus SPY. Yeah, absolutely. But, uh but yeah, you know, the gains are absolutely there. I mean, [ __ ] I don't see SPY going up uh, you know, 2x in a year for, you know, for example. U, but again, if you're not going to time that, if you're not going to trade around those positions, then absolutely, yes, you know, he would be right. >> Yeah, exactly. I'm not talking about traders, I guess. I'm more talking about long-term holders. So, if you look at the, I don't know, 10, 20 years time frame, do you think there is still a reason why you should hold Bitcoin versus the S&P 500? >> Yeah, for me, yes. Uh, I do think so. The simple reason is just, you know, a lot of the uh Bitcoin, I guess, um fanboy stuff in the sense that, you know, you got some that's outside of the system in a way and uh for me, I think that that's worth an allocation. Now, is it going to be the best thing of all time? No. Of course, you don't want to be all into anything, of course. But I do think that it has its own unique views and and its own unique propositions, you know, in terms of value. So, that's why I like to hold it. I think it's a very very nice asset, you know, just for the matter of fact that it's, you know, 247 liquid, which is uh something that you just don't really find anywhere else. And um look, for me, like I I happen to believe that Bitcoin will probably be much higher in uh five or or especially 10 years from now. But hey, that's just me. >> Okay. But when you mention the fact that it's liquid 24/7, I'm sure you are aware that a lot of traditional assets probably will be also available 24/7 now that everything is going to be tokenized. So that's also another another part of the Bitcoin thing that is not will not be exclusive to Bitcoin. Correct. >> Sure. Yeah. I mean that that goes away as I guess one of the value propositions that makes it somewhat unique. But again at the end of the day man I think um you know you still have a lot of the factors of you got 21 million fixed supply stuff like this. Um you know that just makes it a different asset altogether. So, for me, it's I think that everyone has to have some sort of an allocation if you're going to be holding a very long-term portfolio. Um, that needs to be appropriated towards kind of like a hedge, if you will. I I don't really like using that word, but we'll just use it for this conversation. So, some like gold, silver, Bitcoin commodities effectively. And I I just think Bitcoin is still the more interesting commodity of these simply because I think new people who are growing up right now, new people are growing up, you you know, the younger generations, they grew up with the internet. I'm sure you're probably about my age as well. And you know, we kind of grew up when the internet was just coming out and we kind of got to see both worlds. Um, but I think these, you know, the younger generations, they look at Bitcoin as like, oh yeah, of course that thing exists. Of course it's legit, you know, and for me it's it's even better that it's all online. It's all digital because, you know, these people grew up in a digital world. And I think that that is actually appealing to them um in a way that uh maybe, you know, us and perhaps older people might not uh resonate with. Talking about your personal decisions, um I know that you have been a trader since you were very young because your father was also a trader. You recently published a video where you were mentioning that. You also mentioned the fact that according to a certain study about 97% of people trading uh eventually end up losing money and only essentially very [snorts] very very little amount succeed. Assuming that of course you are among those who succeeded. Um have you ever made this exercise uh this in have you ever made this exercise according to which you just look at the the amount of success that you that you had being a trader and sort of compare it to how much money would you would have made by just dollar cost averaging into let's say the S&P 500 or another index and see whether you made more money by trading. Have you ever made sort of >> Yeah, absolutely. Um, so I I actually have done exactly that. And the issue with doing that particular study is that you can't like lump some things. You need to earn the money first and then put it in. Um, so the way that I look at trading, the way they look at investing is completely different things. Trading, if you can do it, is great for income generation in the same way that you do just, you know, like a regular, you know, a regular job for example or whatever to generate, you know, your monthly income, for example. But investing I think is more so it's it's almost required at this point you know given our economic system um it's a debt based system obviously and inflation is a feature not a bug and ultimately you have to invest long-term in order to either keep place with inflation or if you're good you will beat inflation. >> When you introduce yourself to people you tend to say more than you are a YouTuber than that you are a trader investor. [laughter] Why [clears throat] why is that the case? Uh I think the average person who's not involved in the space because we are, you know, we very uh often forget that we're in our own little echo chamber and bubbles. The average person, you know, the normies, if you will. Uh being saying that you're a YouTuber is a lot more relatable than being a trader. Most people who I tell that to when I did tell people, they be like, "Oh, so you like gamble or something like that or you know, they just don't really understand it." And honestly, people, you know, they're not really that interested in what the hell you do anyway. they're just passing time, you know, with the conversation. So, it's a lot easier to say, "Ah, I make dumb videos on the internet." And, uh, then they stop asking about it and then, you know, I can move on with my life. Basically, that's what it comes down to. >> I wanted to hear your opinion about altcoins in this present moment in time because you were saying that it's not worth to hold any altcoin for a long period of time. Can you explain a little bit what you mean by that? I think in general if you're going to be holding any particular altcoin, you have to recognize the history of these things. 99.999999999 repeating to infinity% of shitcoins uh typically do have a rally in their first cycle and then after that it's down always. So when I say you can't hold them for a long period of time, what I mean is that if you're holding these things for years and years and years, the data is overwhelmingly against you. Uh yes, there's every once in a while you see an Ethereum uh survive, but even Ethereum hasn't had better returns compared to Bitcoin over the past cycle or even over the past couple cycles I think. Um so ultimately I do think that there is a time and place that you can make a lot of money holding shitcoins. It can happen for sure, but at the same time, uh you have to realize that that's uh you know, it's it's a foregone conclusion that at some point, you know, you will sell if you really truly want to actually own those gains and not just uh let it be paper gains. You know, those th those things for for all that it's worth, like they just go up and then they go down only almost every damn time. >> So, in that respect, you think they are fundamentally different sort of holdings than Bitcoin? >> Yeah, absolutely. Bitcoin is a completely different thing. I mean most of these uh shitcoins they are like you can think of them like as a super speculative startup project where there's a lack of transparency to what the people are actually doing with it. I mean, you saw it back in 2018 with the ICO craze. There was people just, you know, stating that, hey, we're going to we're going to work on this problem if you give us a lot of money. And more more often than not, you know, when they when people actually track the money, none of that went to the actual project. It just went to the founders pocketbooks. And I think that's what, you know, is is is what a lot goes on in the space. Uh it's not really regulated in that way just yet. And so there's not like um these sort of fail safes, you know, guarding you. Uh just is what it is, man. Comes with the territory. A lot of these things I think are just selling hopes and dreams and they're white papers, you know, re like marketing papers, which they're not really supposed to be. So to me, it's it's a big red flag. I feel like if you're going to, you know, do speculative investments, you could trade OTC if you really want. Um or, you know, stock market's fine, too. If you really want to go into like uh private, you know, equity and investing and whatnot, you know, I think that's ultimately better. Um but hey, I'm not saying that you can't make money with them. I'm just saying you got to you got to you got to really time them right because they are shortlived typically with those uh with those euphoric phases. There is this specific narrative that came up not in latest months according to which the next alt season uh will not come in the sense that there will no there won't be like a generalized bull market for altcoins like we saw in the past and as you said 99% coins will fail but there will be a certain percentage of them that has certain characteristics which will succeed also in the long term and those characteristics are essentially being able to generate revenue. So essentially [snorts] altcoins that are connected to applications that generate real revenue and the revenue is uh flowing into the token. So the token is able to acrue value coming from from users. An example is for example hyperlquid um matt hugan from bitwise mesh and also a and unis swap as examples of that sort of model. Do you get this argument? I agree with it. I also think um I also think the sort of premise of it is a little bit misguided because that's actually what we saw in the past couple cycles too. Uh in the 2023 to 2025 cycle, we didn't see a secular bull market for shitcoins. We saw few sectors go to the mood and beyond. We saw the AI agents and just AI general sort of um related uh coins go up. That was early on in the cycle about 2023 and 2024. Then we saw the meme coins go up crazy around the end of uh 2024. And then 2025, you know, wasn't really much across the board. So, it's just a few sectors realistically there. Most of the other stuff didn't do all that much and certainly was not, you know, the place that you wanted to be. In the cycle previous to that, you know, we saw NFTTS of course and we saw a lot of layer ones, but other than those things, you know, there wasn't a humongous amount of winners. The last cycle that I really remember where any like literally everything went to the moon was 2017 and 2018. You could literally just throw a dart at the board and you were going to be up like 5 to 10x within a couple weeks, which was absolutely insane. But uh but yeah, those th those times have like that just has not been the truth for a long time. So I could definitely agree with that statement. Um it would make sense to me. You know, like I said, the market is maturing and I do think that there is value in the crypto space in general. Uh so yeah, why not give the value to the companies that actually have a real product. You know, these sort of things uh makes a lot of sense to me for sure. >> Eric, that was a great conversation. Thanks again for coming on our show and I hope to see you soon again. >> Yeah, man. It was a pleasure. Uh thank you very much and yeah, anytime. Take care. [music] >> [music]