August 4th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. Let's go to uh Ben in San Jose. Ben, what's going on, brother? >> Hey, Tom. How you doing, man? >> I'm doing great, man. Yourself? >> I just wanted to thank you and your team and everything. I've been using your technique with the 10-minute charts, watching the VIX, and uh just making a fortune [music] here on the futures. >> Isn't it interesting? That's awesome, man. >> It's wonderful. Thanks, Tom. I appreciate. >> Okay, man. Have a great one. Have a safe one. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. >> Hi folks. Basel Chapen sitting here with Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show and my show is usually at 10:00 to 11. I couldn't actually do this morning show, but I'm back here for this to sit in for Tommy. And my service here is the opening call day newsletter. Let's go through the numbers. The Dow is up 1,052. Almost like a green almost a Morabosa candle where there's no wick. Big green or big red. No wick. This is a morabosa on the way down. There's one. Yesterday was almost one and today is probably going to be one or close to being one. [clears throat] It's in leg. Now, one of the reasons why I said to subscribers, we're going to go long. we're going to add to our three times long position in the Dow was because I had this this channel that's coming down and if it broke that there was a really good chance that not only would we go towards the previous high which was the peak C and I kept saying the champ wave we're always expecting D's hasn't got a D yet that there's a chance that we want to be long so we've been long for a couple of days and here we are very nice with a leg D in the daily chart and a leg in the weekly shot and leg B in the monthly. When I get to do my little interview with um who was doing the interview for myself, I'll explain what I'm looking at the chance of different different aspects of the shadow wave methodology at this leg D. But let's just go on right now. So the S&P alltime high alltime record high. Can you believe it was looking very poorly just what a week ago? Less than a week ago. Look at this. It was down there at the 7,300 level. Here it is at 70 7751 in a leg D. We did peak ABC. What's missing is the D. Wow. What a D that is without taking the low, the starting point at 7237.25 back in June. And here we are seeing the weekly. Remember we still have to go to D. So this is a very good sign. But we're already at a D in the monthly chart. I'll talk about that as well. And I also do that in my show, the tiger technicians. Now 10 to 11 a.m. Eastern time every weekday. Let's go. Every market day I should say. QQ. Look at this. [clears throat] Looking very ugly when it retested the 661.14. There's a technique that I use the left side right side price time match big arch formation. Um and it went down to this right side. It was a little offkilter but it still did the same thing that it normally does. And then what happened is the 9 moving average is still pink even though it's gone from 6 661.14 to today's high so far of where am I right there at 724.98. We're actually 725. We're actually at the high right now as we speak. This is the Invesco QQQ uh small C. These are sorry this is the 100 NDX 100. And let's go back to the u the daily chart here. So this is daily chart leg gray leg A, but it's a peak B in the weekly chart and a peak C in the month. Remember, we're still expecting these to come because that's the obligation when a buy signal goes to a buy mode. Let's go to the IWM. This is the Russell Small caps. Russell 2000 within an eyelink from 302.72 July the 1st alltime high. See this? See this channel? See the way it became an arch formation. second arch, third arch, and then it became I haven't drawn it in, but because it broke that channel resistance yesterday, I should have drawn in. I just didn't have time to say there's there's a cup formation. How high we go above that high on the left side is going to be very important. At 302.73, it makes leg D in the weekly chart. Only a leg C is shares Russell 2000 monthly chart. Here's the big thing. SMH's >> [clears throat] >> 671.83 22nd of June whoosh down to 503.85 just five sessions ago and here it is at 578. Now one of the things we're looking at this weekly chart that is a serious pullback. There's a lot of work we to be done. They were way overbought. They're digesting gains even with this big gain. Do you want to go to gold right now? Gold is trading up 40 49 at 4 4,140. You see sideways trading range and what I often do is I put a rectangle within a rectangle and the rule of thumb in the travel week methodology is a is a long sideways rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patience you think. As it's going to the upper border, oh breakout, no comes right back down as it goes to the lower border. You think, oh, breakdown. Nope. Turns around just bounces within that. And look at the weekly chart. gold just there's nothing here that says to me there's a signal that because the 9 period moving average is still very weak both in all of all the the daily and the weekly ch time frames but look at this the MACD's been rising that should give you the sense the the green line should give you a sense of price it's failed so either it has something that takes it to 4250 within the next week or it's just going to continue sideways silver is a little bit Silver [clears throat] having a nice session today, getting closer to a breakout. It's up 2.03 at 59.89. It's still in the rectangle formation and the weekly still looks terrible, but it's it's improving. High grade copper, great move today. High grade copper is um within it's at 6.3 uh 6.63. 6.70 was the previous high way back in January. So, we'll see. You look how many times and it's even got [clears throat] the number of bars on the left could equal the number of bars to the right in August if it's able to break into the 680 or 7 area. That'll be amazing. All right, let's get back to our our bonds. Look at this bonds having a rally today. So, the yields are coming down just a little bit. The TBT, which is what we've been following. Look at this TBT. Oh, TBT. Yep, I got it. Uh, do I hear the music? I think I hear the music. Doesn't matter. Let me just finish this up here. PBT. Yeah, I made that peak F. It's in the 38. It's pulled back a little bit. Just a little bit. And the weekly chart is still in a PC C, a leg C. And it's in the rectangle formation. I've been saying for months, don't worry about the yields. They are stuck in a range. When they really break decisively with yields going into the fours into the 40 area, 4% that's going to be serious. Almost got there. Didn't get there. So, we'll be watching this for Bitcoin. Nothing to see here. Sideways action. So far, it's up to 470 at 64 555. What about Amazon? I was asked, could I look at Amazon? Yeah, Amazon fantastic move has within days. It goes from the 220s to the 280s. Now, it's pulled back. It's the 277 down six. And this, I'm calling this for now just a peak E potential, but it's only a leg C in the weekly. It should still go to D. Monthly charge is already at D. Now within the context of everything we're looking at, had a question about SPX, SB uh CX SpaceX. So we we had some trains before. It actually went all the way to 225.65 and it plummeted down to yesterday's low of 104.83. I said 133 will be the first target. The downside if it takes that out, watch the 100 level. Well, we almost got there. Now it's starting to rally. I'll talk about this when I get back or maybe the very end of the show. In the meantime, we will have I'm sure we're going to have our guest tomorrow. I'll be back in a moment. The Dow right now, if I could just find it. The Dow is up a th00andu. There it is. >> If you spend any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across [music] many folks who push forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories of [music] these so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. [music] This is what sets Teddy Kekstacks the Tiger Forex report off the riff raft. Every Monday, former Chicago [music] Merkantile Exchange member and author Teddy Kekstat releases his Tiger Forex report newsletter where he dives into the complex world of Forex and takes time to actually [music] teach you his methods that have made him so successful in the fast-paced and rewarding world of Forex trading. Furthermore, all subscribers receive access to archive live streams of Teddy's where he provides university [music] level education to help you in Forex trading. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money back guarantee. [music] So, what are you waiting for? Forex awaits. >> [music] >> The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets [music] can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this [music] chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFN, we understand [music] that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers [music] their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. [music] TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets [music] so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any [music] of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. [music] Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious [music] text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV [music] live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host [music] is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From [music] the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the [music] right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you [music] were born to be. TFN, educating investors. Hi folks, we're back. I'm just going to check with my engineer. I want to make absolutely sure that we have Tim just uh yes is Tim there. I'm not sure Tim is here. Let me just double check with my engineer. Did I just type in the wrong place? Yes, I did. Um [clears throat] are we getting Tim? Well, as soon as we get Tim Tim, I want you just to shout, "Hi, I'm here." Um, in the meantime, let me just go through a couple of things here. Uh, I I typed into the den by mistake uh into the into my engineers uh slot right there instead of the 10 uh to answer a question that I had about AN. Yes, it is an instant restart. That give me the right chart. There you go. One, two, three. Right there. Click. So, look. Here's this chart of AN. This is biotech. Here we go. A GN. This is in the this a genus inc. And right the there I had already typed in. You asked me and I didn't have time to do it the other day. Yesterday I think it was but I I put in the circle but you can't see the circle because the rectangle is overlaying it. So yes, there is an instant restart and that's going to E. And now you can think E/ A. It's just steadily moving its way towards 870. I hope that helps you. Meanwhile, let's get back to this. And I just want to check one more time to see. Hey, this is Tuesday, right? Oh, it's not it's not tomorrow. Yeah, it's me. It's my interview. Good grief. I'm What a day I've had. But I'm going to be right back here. So, [laughter] sorry about that. I end you. Uh this is uh Tommy that's not here interviewing me, Vel Chap with the t the opening call the daily newsletter. So I said to my subscribers the yesterday early morning we're going long back to long on our three times long the UD for the Dow because I didn't have a chance to explain everything but they know my reasoning because I've already discussed it before that it broke out of this channel and you see this channel now I can take it away. I don't like messy charts although you think that a lot of my charts are messy. I don't like messy charts. So, let me just remove and remove again. And let me just discuss what we're looking at. So, this produced a lopsided cup formation. When you get a pig C and you get a powerful move above it, um if inside you get an A and a B, if it crosses that left side C, that picks up the last the latest letter in the alphabet sequentially in the Chevway method. This becomes D. Now, let me just for a moment explain what we'd be looking at. Very often when it takes a long time to go from a PC without breaking the the initial trough that started it all here down in the 50,000 area, this is this says that that D has the potential to also become an A. Now, let me explain what it is. If within three sessions there's a pullback and then another high then I can start to think of an instant restart. That's the rule of the chap me methodology. The only time a low can become a high. What I mean by that is you can get a pullback break to a new high and this leg becomes almost the starting point for something new that becomes a brand new leg after a pullback. A peak will become E/ A, F/B, G/C, it can go all the way to a D. So this is really important because if there's a pullback in the next 2 three days, doesn't matter how high it goes, but if that pullback goes into the gap and then takes out the 53,289 uh 7th of July high, alltime high, that kind of says, oh, be very careful here. That's going to be a D and you're going to have to watch out because at peak D other things can happen. All right, just wanted to get through that. Now, another thing I I should talk about is the reason why we added to our General Electric, which we already have from 198. You can see way back here, just about where the Dow made that instant restart. Um, that was back the low that was made, right? April, I believe, right there. That was the uh Oh, no, that was the May low of that was April of 2025. Yes. Now, what we're looking at is a general election. added to it uh yesterday early morning and um it's done very well. It's up 836. And one of the reasons is you see this cup formation and you see this chap wave according to falling ax formation it makes from that peak E goes lower highs and much lower lows and all of a sudden it finds some kind of support. I mean if I can find the chart just it'll be very interesting because it'll explain this visually and I like to do visual things. So let me just show you this chart right here. So this is called There we go. I'll move it to the right. I'm just working with one computer today. I'm out of out of town. And here we go. So this is what I call now in in the annals of technical analysis. This would be getting a lot more credence if I called it the declining expanding cone formation. I find that that's a little bit too uh too wordy. It's just very nice. The falling axe. Look, here's here's the axe. Here's the lower highs and much lower lows. And then it finds some support. And all of a sudden, it makes either a V or a cup formation. Takes out that upper declining trend line. And all of a sudden, you're looking at all the left side peaks as targets. Well, there's only one, and that's at the alltime 382.97 high. Well, that 382.7 high. Look at this. Today's high is 378.885. So I have this as another technique I've developed this left side right side symmetry in the bar even though the low was there I have to move it to a particular candle and that says I can get rid of this because it's done it's done its job once it's done it job just get rid of it so that's out that falling axe right there removed right there and look what we've got we've got with by in the next two three sessions we should be testing the 38297 level Now we call these under that previous high a gray A, a gray B and a gray C. But if the stochastics already reached 80% that gray C becomes blue. Well, it hasn't. So this is I haven't changed the color right now cuz I haven't had time. But if that takes out 382.97 in this leg, I have to then consider that it's now an F continuing the pattern because we never we to take out the starting low F/ C and alternate count and that just says all right just be aware that this could turn down very sharply but if it's very strong and it's C it's going to continue higher. What do you want? You want the stochastic at 80%. Look at the blue onbalance volume and the daily is great. The MACD turned back up again. And that was great from that low that was made in the 330s. And now you've got the relative strength, the little gray line there. Great nine bit moving average back to green again. All of this is very positive. I'm anticipating a legacy chart and that will continue what I'm considering really a gray C in the uh no blue sea in the GE Aerospace aircraft engines, electric equipment, appliances in the monthly chart. And look at all the technicals how strong they are. 88% in the stochcastic. So that that's the type of thing that we've been doing [clears throat] now. And also there was a question on one of our positions that we've had for a very long time. We've had good trading positions since then, but I didn't feel that this was ready today to move. This is Robin Hood. I I'll explain tomorrow my show in the Tiger Technicians Hour. But wait a minute. Look at this. Um there's one that we once had and had great profits. All of a sudden you're seeing the low caps. Now look, this is $10.64. This is EU, Uranium Energy Corporation. That is a great looking chart. Now, it wasn't looking that at that point, but now it's made a W or two U-shaped patterns, breaking to the upside and above all the recent um resistance levels. But the weekly chart needs a lot of work. So, this is the type of thing I'm looking for my subscribers. And I had a webinar based on what we'd be looking at in the second in the third quarter of the year. And we were expecting higher highs in the general indices and we were looking at what small caps can really participate very nicely. So we're trying to find segments in in the low caps and we'll be back in a moment hopefully this time with Tim Ward. I'll be back. Basing you for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show. I'll be right back. It ties up over a,000 points. [music] Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge [music] gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire [music] market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers [music] have been alive. 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And it's not just dry, tedious text, [music] either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger [music] TV. live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for free. [music] Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger [music] TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel [music] and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. >> This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions, daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS distributors inc. [music] Hi folks, we're back. Basel Chapen singing for Tommy O'Brien and the Tom O'Brien Show. Right. This time, Tuesdays and Thursdays, we have our wonderful guest Tim Odd from the Oracle and Tim. I've been listening to Tim from the in the on Tom O'Brien show. Gosh, from last century. I thought I throw that in. That was in the 1900s, 1990s. So, uh um I'm really thrilled to have Tim on today. When the S&P is making the alltime high, he said it was a good possibility of making. That's what he's anticipating. Tim, how are you and congratulations? >> Yeah. Uh, any I want to tell you where you can find me. This is uh uh my website's www.orhyenoracle.com. It's right there. And if you want to email me, my email is this timorhyorcle.com. And I also have a um Twitter account. I update that every once in a while. uh like pretty much on gold. But anyhow, that's how to find me. So, let's kind of get going on the S&Ps. >> Sure. >> We uh we showed this chart many times before over the last couple of weeks. The bottom window is the equity put call ratio reading with a 21-day average. Next higher window is a 10-day average of the equity put call ratio readings. Next higher is a 5day equity putall ratio reading. So, it's a sentiment indicator. when all three of them uh get into bullish territory which is a reading above 0 65 uh or 065 or higher and uh all of them did and the market was kind of just uh you can't quite see it here but it just went down a little bit for a week or so and these ratios stayed high and I was looking for the trend to really start to read bullish levels and it never did and this in the past all these lines here are times when the 21-day, 10day, and the 5day uh equity book call ratio readings all reach bullish uh bullish readings. So, it has a high probability of working and it worked this time. Uh so, it pretty much a little bit early, but it uh it was a bullish uh you know, everybody was buying puts on it decline. So, and they got uh whacked. So, we're bullish because of that. And here's another trend following indicator. Uh, this window here, which is this window right here, is the weekly S&P VIX ratio. And the next one higher is the S&P. This chart goes back to, I don't know, close to 3 years. And I got a bunch of different uh lines in there, but the green lines or the green shaded area when both the weekly S&P VIX ratio is above the mid Ballinger band and the SPX or yeah the S&P is above Ballinger band. So both of them are above the mid Ballinger band which is bullish. If you get one below the mid Ballinger band in this case uh this was the S&P VX ratio below the Ballinger band but the S&P stayed above the Ballinger band. So it was a warning sign but the market could continue higher. Uh got back to green here. The pink area is when both of them get below the mid Ballinger band. Uh normally the SPX ratio leads the the charge. I guess you might say it fell below the mid Ballinger band looks like a couple of weeks before the S&P did. So that worked out pretty well. So you got a decline uh green area. Here's a another area. Nothing happened. Green area again. And now you got a pink area here back at the um looked like a February March high. You got both them below again. The S&P led the way like a week or two before the SPS fell below the Ballinger band. And right now uh we got uh green. You got the S&P above the mid- ballinger band and you got the um S&P fixed ratio above the Ballinger band. So right now uh it's uh everything's fine, I guess you might say. So there's uh uh here's another uh so you know trend falling is bullish. You you got you got both the VIX or the S&P VIX ratio above bid Ballinger band. You got the S&P Ballinger band. Until that changes, the uptrend's intact. Here's kind of another uh trend. There's a lot to do with momentum in the market. Uh uh momentum starts failing before the top comes in. And uh what you want to see off of a bottom and we uh we did have that which which is the top window. Where's my uh Yeah, the top window up here is the 14 period uh RSI, just regular RSI. You like to see it give up up around 80. And it did hit 80 back in May of May 14, 78.69. Close enough. And that's initiation of an uptrend. And all these lines show when the last time that happened. A lot of times you're coming off lows. You're uh and we we had that coming in in May. So um the uptrend will continue until the RSI starts not getting above starts peeking out about 60. Uh this is the hour of 14. And if you notice right here, this pink area, even though the market was still kind of going up, the RSI really failed at 60, >> right? >> And back back here and uh the uh this is a tariff for I guess you might tariff thing back in 2025. Uh it got above 80, but you know, RSI barely got above 60 there. Same back in u the 2022 tops. the RSI uh stopped up around uh 60. Right now we're around 65 when I made this chart about, you know, a couple hours ago. So, chances are we're breaking out here and this is not probably a top cuz the RSI is above around 65. It may hit 70, which is a good sign. So, momentum wise, we got momentum going with it. And usually we got a weaker, you know, this period we're in right now seasonally wise is one of the weakest periods of the year. For some reason, we're getting a lot of strength. But let's look on the short-term basis. See what see what we got. This is a daily chart of of the spy. Uh if you notice, we went sideways June, July, and uh we hit a low in July there, but we went sideways. If you did a Fibonacci relationship from the last low, which was March, up to that sideways pattern, the market did not even retrace uh 38.2% retracement. It it maybe retraced 25%. So, so um that's good. I'll I'll bring that up a little bit later. But what's really important now is look what the volume's doing here. this volume uh if you go back you know we're way higher than over the last uh several weeks this is a sign of strength volume you want the volume to increase as the market rallies and you want to be higher than the previous uh trading days and that's exactly what we have here I uh yesterday's report I said we jumped above these highs back here in look was like a mid July with a sign of strength so that became report. Well, today we're breaking above the previous highs going back to June and this is volume is not done yet, but volume most likely will be at least close to yesterday's high. So, chances are this is going to be support now around I don't know 757 area. Uh so that's maximum downside. So, we may go up, we may pull back and test it, but we'll probably hold above the 750s high or higher as we go forward. So a big breakout sign of strength a lot of stuff is positive here. So even equity put call rat reading still remain bullish. So um are we due for a break here or we keep going? >> Oh you're asking me I thought you break of the of the trend but no keep going please. >> Okay. Uh so there's no u no break. >> There we are. Okay. I thought we just had another minute but we're there. Hey Tim, are we going to be back? We want to hear everything that you can tell us today. So folks, speaking to Tim Odd, author of the Oracle, we have your usual Tuesday, Thursday interview [screaming] with him. This is Bowser Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. I'm the author of the opening call the daily the 10:00 to 11:00 show with Tiger Technicians Hour. We'll be right back with Tim after this break. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse [music] ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. For up-to-date pricing and performance, go to direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and [music] should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. The reality is that navigating financial [music] markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having [music] the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFN, [music] we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts [music] offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's [music] markets. TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the [music] market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front [music] page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. TFN has launched [music] the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tigers Day available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added [music] costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm O'Brien. [music] Hi folks, we're back. We're on with Tim Mo. Our usual interview on the Tuesday or Thursday. Tim, could you please continue? I think you want to go to gold. Is that right? >> Yeah. Just one more question or one more. This uh or S&P here, the sideways pattern that's been going on since June, like I said, is the half could be the halfway point, the next move up. If you do the math on that, that comes up around 850 uh on U. Not very good there. 850 on the spy. So, I just want to point that out. >> Fantastic. [clears throat] Because I have an extension, an extension, a fib extension going to uh that would be 161 going to 7,816. So, yours is quite a lot higher than that. Oh, that'll be fantastic. >> Yeah. Let's see see how that works out. But anyhow, let's go on to gold. Gold. Um uh uh this is the um uh it's actually uh it's a it's the um Sprout physical gold trust. So basically you buy the trust if it's a discount it's bullish if it's a uh zero uh or if it gets up around zero it's usually a top but we're coming anything below 2.25 negative point discount of 2.25 or lower we're at 2.43 43 right now is usually a bullish sign and that's all these lines in here and we've been bullish signs for about a month or so uh couple of months and so even though gold's pulled back here uh previous times we had that long of a a discount came back in 2022 which was a major bottom back then >> so is this a major bottom could be uh let's look on some other charts uh July uh which was you know last week uh closed above the previous low of June which is there on um in other words went below a previous low and closed above the previous low on lighter volume. Volume has to drop up at least 10% to have the bullish shakeout or to have this bullish setup and we did do that um this chart uh yeah this August 4th. So anyway, we did close above the previous low. So what what it says, you got you got to have a sign of weakness through the previous low for that decline to continue. If you go through a previous low on 10% or lighter volume and close above the previous low, that's a bullish reversal. That's what's happening now. And what that says is if you can't take out the previous low, it'll attempt to take out the previous high. Well, the previous high is basically this high back in uh March, which is up around that 117 area. So according to this setup, we should get back to the March high and maybe more. Don't know, but that'd be the minimum upside target on a shorter term basis here. Um the monthly chart. So we're on a buy signal. This is the uh where's my thing at? Uh this is a weekly chart uh of GDX. And we had a a break. We broke below this previous low right here against this low. And if you can tell, it did so in lighter volume. Volume was significantly lighter and and it closed above it. Nothing happened. Then the the week after, which is about a month ago, you went below that previous low again. If you can kind of tell these two candles right here, this one and this one, this volume's a little bit higher. That suggests you may go back and test this low which is the low low of July. It was uh 70 right around that 70 level and you >> want3. Yeah. >> Yeah. So that low could be tested and and the week after you went above that previous high. If you notice volume was a little bit lacking. Well to go above previous high the volume should expand. So, what I'm saying is there's a chance, I don't know if it'll happen or not, but the monthly chart will remain on a bicycle, but there's a chance we could test last month's low. [clears throat] That may happen, may not. I'm staying long because the bigger trend is up. So, this is just a short-term uh possible scenario that may or may not happen. The monthly charts rule the weekly charts. The weekly charts rule the daily charts. So once a monthly gives a buy signal, you kind, you know, do you want to take the and chance the weekly may may form? Don't know, but I'd stay with the monthly chart. Here are some other charts that suggest we're just done to the downside. The bottom window is the 79day average of the up down volume for GDX. Uh the next window higher is a 50-day average of the up down volume and the next higher is the 62-day average. All three of those moving averages are exhaustion to the downside. And this chart goes back to 2017. So, it works pretty well. Uh you can't quite see it back here cuz uh the volatility wasn't that much compared to here recently, but it does a really good job picking out close to the lows. And um we're at that. We've been sitting there for about 3 weeks now. I've been showing this chart for the last 3 weeks and we haven't really come off the lows yet. Uh but you know, we may start to I think probably this month. I thought a couple weeks ago we'd see the low and pretty much I was right. The market really didn't go down much. It just didn't go up. It kind of went sideways. Well, I think the up part is probably in my opinion is going to start this month. Uh so we're kind of exhausted to the downside and uh we're in an area of uh the monthly use giving a buy signal. Uh this momentum for the up down volume came in pretty much exhausted to the downside. And here's a momentum chart for GDX. Uh the bottom window is the u advanced decline, cumulative advanced decline. Next window higher is the cumulative up down volume and GDX in the top window. And I mark the areas in green when the cumulative advanced decline and cumulative up down volume are above the mid Ballinger band which is all this green area. And uh the pink area was when both those indicators up down volume and advanced decline are below the mid Ballinger band. And uh right now if you notice it can give a you know this is designed uh for catching the uh momentum or the trend. It's not designed to catch the the tops or the bottoms. So if you can see here, even though GDX topped there, uh, but you know, a couple weeks later, it finally got below the mid Ballinger band. So it kept you out of this market there. Then finally turned back up. It was like a couple weeks, I don't know, this whole thing was probably about, yeah, about two months there kept you out. Finally started going up. So um, will it happen this month? Uh, it could, but momentum hasn't quite [clears throat] turned up yet, but um when it does, it could be a long long-term chart. Previous times, uh, when this chart turned bullish, it was about a year and a half rally. So, if this turns up here, maybe this month, if not this month, could be next month. It could be a multi- month rally, if not longer. So, >> that's where we are. >> That's wonderful information. Thank you, Tim. I think uh our listeners are already going to get something out of that. And I must say I agree with you and I'm looking at GDX. This is the first time it's just broke to the upside a little bit, but it's 7783. I'd say anything over 82 really starts the momentum to the upside, but it's got to get there. Thank you so much, Tim. I appreciate it and we all do. And we will see you again on Thursday. >> All right. Thanks a lot. >> Thank you very much, folks. Tim and we will be back. Basel chap chapen [clears throat] staying in for Tommy O'Brien. We be right back. >> Gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire [music] market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the [music] Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers have been alive. 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[music] So, let me just show you this because this is what I I do on my show Tiger Tech's hour 10 to 11 every market day and on Friday afternoon when I do my video for subscribers just looking at everything that that we have that we own that we want to buy that we haven't bought that we'd like to buy etc. You see this long rectangle here in the five minute e- mini when you peek in the chap you go D E F or G but D is where other things can happen. Well, here we are going sideways. And normally what happens in a long rectangle at a high is it starts to break. If it takes out the trend line, lower trend line of the border, then means it's going to pull back. It'll probably have one bounce to retest just to say goodbye to everybody in that rectangle and then go lower. So, we're watching this closely. I'm looking at 7767 right now. 7750 by 5:00. We'll see what happens there. Okay. Now, as we wrap up this segment, which is the final segment, let me show you. So, gold, um, we we we have had we've got the physical gold, just the one that Tim was talking about. We took great profits all the way up. Um, but most importantly, we've held a little bit on the way down. You can see through the GDX, which is more or less the same market vectors, gold miners. This is making a little cup formation and you've popped to leg C above all this recent uh that's very different to the PHYS uh that which has just looked flat. Look at gold itself flat. So if the gold miners start to move that's going to be positive because so far I see nothing as far as a trigger to the upside is concerned in gold. Silver has moved a little bit better but we'll see what happens. So the GDX let me just do this real quickly. The GDX trading Whoops. GDX. Don't do this before the break, the final break. The GDX trading right now at 77.69. If it's able by I I'd even give it until next week if it's able to trade above 82, that would be the breakout I'm looking for on the very short term. In the meantime, this is Basel Chapen signing off and just check out my opening call. As I say, we went uh we added to our core long positions in the uh three times long Dow early yesterday morning and it's done very nicely. But this is leg D. Anything can happen with Iran in the US and you got to anticipate especially at leg D in the D. We'll be watching this very closely. Have a wonderful evening and we will all see you back. Tommy will be back tomorrow at 9:00.