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August 31st The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

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On August 31st, the Tom O'Brien Show reported that financial markets faced significant pressure following the Jackson Hole symposium, characterized by rising yields and increasing crude oil prices. The ten-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.75% while the dollar retreated slightly, and major indices experienced declines as the S&P 500 dropped about half a percent after bouncing off support levels, the Dow fell roughly 0.6%, and the NASDAQ 100 slipped by a quarter percent. Gold pulled back from recent lows to approximately $4,482, though the GDX miner ETF remained resilient despite a slight decline in its index value. Individual stocks showed mixed performance, with Amazon shares falling nearly 3% due to new Federal Trade Commission allegations regarding misleading advertising practices that could lead to substantial fines, while companies like Salesforce and CrowdStrike demonstrated strength amidst heavy selling volume for McDonald's and light trading activity for IBM and Netflix. Market analysts highlighted several concerning trends and risks, particularly as Steve Rhodes noted that September is historically the worst-performing month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He pointed out a worrying pattern where the Dow reached all-time highs simultaneously across multiple currencies such as the euro and yen, suggesting a potential major market top supported by topping patterns on daily and monthly charts. Technical analysis indicated that a bearish shooting star candle was expected if prices failed to rise within 36 minutes, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming non-farm payrolls data release for August scheduled for Friday before the Labor Day weekend. Furthermore, rising mortgage rates had climbed to nearly 6.87%, significantly increasing monthly payments for prospective homebuyers, while the Federal Reserve was viewed as a two-to-one favorite to hike interest rates at its September 16th meeting, with probabilities suggesting multiple hikes could occur by year-end. In a major development regarding corporate strategy and investment, Nvidia announced a $3.5 billion investment in MediaTek, a Taiwanese chipmaker, marking its largest direct investment outside the United States. This deal involves convertible bonds that will convert into shares and is part of a broader $3.9 billion convertible bond sale by MediaTek that also attracted investors like Apple. The announcement reflected Nvidia's strategy of leveraging its equity to invest in other businesses, resulting in a 1.4% rise in Nvidia shares, although Google fell 2% and Amazon dropped further before the FTC news emerged. While crude oil prices increased slightly and gold saw a minor lift after its earlier pullback, the GDX index declined by 1.3%, illustrating the complex interplay between sector-specific news and broader market sentiment as the show concluded with an encouraging sign-off for listeners to enjoy their time.
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[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Let's go to Mike in Southern California. Hey Mike, what's going on? >> Hey Tom, nice to talk to you again. And I have to start out and first tell you I love this trading room. [music] This thing is great. This app, it works great. And uh getting all your information, you're like instantly there. No delay, nothing. >> I know. I listen I appreciate you growling problem with us. >> Your channel is in my pocket all day long. It's wonderful. [laughter] >> Thank you, man. Thank you. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] >> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN. Thanks for joining me kicking off the final hour of the trading day. And we got markets under pressure right now. Extending some of the losses we had on Friday following Jackson Hole. And yeah, we got yields continuing higher. Now, part of the backdrop here is you got crude pushing higher up $2.25. So, crude is higher. Yields right now. The 10-year off another seven, we'll call it six ticks lower at 10722. How about 4.75% on the 10-year higher yields persisting. The dollar right now, dollar actually backs off. So, 9942 even as yields persist. That's been a trend recently. And gold lower but off of the lows. gold off $47 off 1% at 44.82 and the GDX only off a buck though. Check out the GDX, right? You're holding at 98.24 on the GDX. We started this rally at about 70. Meanwhile, you got the gold contract at 44.82 and this rally started at about 4,000. So, you have gold up 12%. From the lows that we made, this little consolidation area. All right, we're diverging right at the beginning. But talking about gold pulling back and you got a GDX that is up $28. So 40% from 70, right? Even if you call it 75. So GDX holding up leading right now in that market. But gold under pressure when you get yields higher and yields are part of the story right now. But we got a market with an S&P off by about half a percent right now. We just bounced from an area of support of 76.80, but you're off by half a percent at 76.8. 87 right now. Tech stocks holding up relatively well, even with Amazon, we'll talk about it, down nearly 3%. NASDAQ 100 down a quarter% off 71 points, 29,419. The Dow under pressure. See that escalation this morning. The Dow off 6/10% off 338 points, 53,246. And you got the Russell right now as yields are spiking again off 9/10% off 26 points at 2952. And yeah, Amazon. So the FTC as I was just talking about in the top of the hour update there. Now quite the acceleration on Friday. This market is something, right? $10 up, $10 down. One day, one day. Even a company like Amazon not immune to the volatility. And that's after you remember this day when we found out Bezos was selling. Now, it was part of a planned sell, right? But they can always do away with that plan, right? They can always change that plan if they want to. So, it's it's like an option that cost you nothing that you can rewrite at any time that they have planned sales. You get a nice acceleration on the earnings. Bezos moves out some shares as part of that planned sale. And here we are in the same month with the FTC launching an investigation. Ah, forgive me. Come on. Where are we? The story just jumped away from me. Oh, shame on me. Uh, yes. But the FTC, it's going to be right here. Here it is. FTC suit claiming it misled advertisers on pricing. They make a lot of money on advertising, folks. This could be a big one. Okay, we'll find out the details. This just broke at 2:00. A group of states is also set to join the potential lawsuit. Now, Facebook just paid what 16 billion that Amazon had mis had been misleading advertising clients and yeah, they may get billions of dollars cuz they're taking in so much money. The ads, sometimes known as sponsored listings, appearance the top. Amazon said investigators misrepresented how its advertising auctions work and presented no evidence of harm to shoppers, you know, and they're they're going to push back, of course, but it's just a little black box, right? you know, Google ads, all this stuff. And yes, they got algorithms, they have all that, but if you've ever done any advertising on that, folks, oh man, it's so difficult to find out what they're actually charging you for, you know, how the the efficiency works of everything. And hey, so nonetheless, you got Amazon shares down 2.9%. And boy, you know, the way this thing is moving right now, folks, wouldn't be surprised if we give up this acceleration back to like 240. You know, you're in a exceptional channel right now. Okay, look at this beautiful channel on Amazon from the lows at the start of 20123. You talk about nearly four years to the upside, but 240 is hanging out there, man. And you are trading with some volume now on a monthly, you're not going to have the volume, man. Weekly, you're pulling back on volume as well. We'll see if that changes this week. We're coming to, you know, Labor Day, end of summer, though, as we trail off. Now, the one thing that's going to keep you here this week, though, folks, is we got non-farm payrolls on Friday for the month of August, and it's an important one. You know, look at this on a daily. Now, this is very short term, but look at the way you're ripping lower. Now, this news just broke in the last hour. So, if this had been a story that the market was digesting all day, you might get more volume. But that FTC story just breaking in the last hour. Amazon with 25 million shares on the pullback today and you did almost 50 million on the acceleration on Friday. And yeah, look at this 10 year man. Watch out below. So we're at 10720. Started the war at 114 and yeah, highest since June 2025. Right now, folks, the moral trade is 6.87%. You know what it was when the war began? 5.99. And to put that in context, buying a $450,000 home, putting 20% down on it, you're talking about 90 grand down at $27 more, you're paying 2363 as opposed to paying 2156. And yeah, that's if you can qualify. Pretty remarkable just since March, right? That's a that's a almost a 10% increase in your monthly payment. And imagine that's your 10% increase in your monthly payment for 30 years. Pretty remarkable. Not remarkable when you look at this chart though. And there it is. And look at the volume we got last week. All right. Yeah. The 10 year trades down with force. You jump over the 30-year right now. Down another 21 ticks. Now you actually had some action on Friday on Jackson Hole. Look at that. So you actually bounce a bit. We're giving it back on no volume whatsoever today. But yield tire, dollar, even with yield tire though, dollar backs off a bit. Dollar struggling at a 9942. S&Ps off 32 points. We're coming back with Steve Roads folks. We're talking some markets. Always a great segment. Be right back. [music] If you spend any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories of [music] these so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. This is what sets Teddy Kekstacks the Tiger Forex Report off the riff raff. Every Monday, [music] former Chicago Merkantile Exchange member and author Teddy Kekstat releases his Tiger Forex [music] Report newsletter where he dives into the complex world of Forex and takes time to actually teach you his methods that have made him so successful [music] in the fast-paced and rewarding world of Forex trading. 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Watch online at tfnn.com or [music] on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. [music] Welcome back, folks. S&P is off by 33 points right now. And right now, folks, as we do every Monday at 3:15 p.m. Eastern time, we're going to talk to our man Steve Rose. You can check out Steve's outstanding program, folks, every trading day right here on Tiger TV, The Trader Edge, 11:00 a.m. till noon. So, check that out. You can always search for that on TFN. Search for it on YouTube, I mean, right there. And then if you head on over to the front page of TFN, folks, you click on the newsletter tab and you will see our man Steve Rhodess, Mastering Probability, folks. You can sign up. It's an outstanding daily newsletter. Now, you get updates in the morning, in the afternoon, in the weekend as well, folks. It's a comprehensive report. You get great webinars in there as well, and it comes with a 30-day money back guarantee. So, please try it out. You can't go wrong. Steve Rhodess, good afternoon. >> Hi, Tommy. How are you today? >> I'm doing great, man. How's your Monday going? >> Good. You know, hard to believe end of summer, right? Supposedly for us, summer is the year round, but uh you know, the end of summer. >> You know what happened, Steve? is that when Tommy started school, my brain went haywire and I and I said, "This is not cool. You stole that was the end of summer and it was like August 11th and and I'm from the Northeast and and these nor you know I I always but hey I know I had to face that reality on August 11th. So me I Anyway, yeah, they >> Yeah, we and obviously down here we've got a lot of people from the north northeast and school just started this weekend and on my my walk that way >> Yeah. my walks this morning. My walks this morning, you can tell there's a lot of people that are no longer, you know, in the area, so to speak. But >> I tell you, real real quickly before we get into this, we had the strangest weather here this weekend. I've been in Florida for over 40 years. I can't ever recall seeing this. And what this is is from about 8:00 in the morning on, we had lightning all day Saturday, a good portion of yesterday. I mean, normally if you, you know, we get some type of tropical storm or something, that's that's different. This was just normal storms and lightning >> time. Huh. >> Yeah. Which is very difficult to play golf when there's lightning out there. So, we typically don't. Yeah. Yeah. What I thought we would do, >> you know, we talked about this last uh last uh last week we were together, which is the seasonal uh uh the seasonality of September and how, you know, it really is the biggest fear of the stock market. We've got this is now the Dow chart. So, usually I show the S&P. This is the Dow. This is 129 years worth of data. We can see again September is the worst performing month. We looked at this last week and we saw that it was a little bit better than a coin toss, but when September's bad, it's usually pretty bad. And in the Dow, in the case of the Dow, the red vertical line time, that's where we're at. Typically, on average, it it tops around the end of next week. Middle middle middle to end of next week. >> Right at the end of summer. >> Good. Yeah. Right. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. So, um, you know, I I've been I've been very, uh, bullish because of what I've seen in the charts. But even even when I see what's in the charts, I still go back and say, "Okay, what have I missed?" Well, the one thing that, uh, what would be my biggest concern in the stock market is this set of charts right here. And this shows the Dow priced in dollars, euros, yen, Australian uh uh dollars, Swedish crron to the great British pounds was Franks, Chinese Juan, and the Canadian looney. What you'll notice is the yellow line where I've got all-time highs. They all made the same all-time high. They made they made an all-time high on the exact same day with one exception that be that was the yen. And the yen made its all-time high earlier. Those folks that have listened to my show over the years know that um when we have uh uh the Dow priced in other currencies that's at new all-time highs. It's an indication that we are not near an all-time high in terms of US dollars because the Dow doesn't top uh in it doesn't top first in US dollars and then tops later in in in foreign currencies at least the euros uh the euro because of the studies that I've done. So, um, if we take a look at what I did was then said, okay, so when else do we have some all-time highs where we had, uh, every everything topped out at the exact same time. So, I've got January 14th, uh, 2000. You can see the top uh, on both for the euro as well as the US dollar the exact same day. The only difference that I had here was in in October 2007. And here there was quite a quite a difference a huge difference because the the Dow price in euros had topped in 2001 June 5th 2001. So a huge divergence but the point here is that again the Dow tops in dollars first not in other currencies. Um then we give it because of because of time zones and so forth you got to give it let's say a 48 hour window uh if you will um which is what we had here in January 5th we had the Dow top. Oh, actually this was just before in yours. It was one day before. So um it's really So how this helps us uh Tommy is um we want to be paying attention to the Dow if you want I'm going to just take come off this screen here for a minute and we what we want to be paying attention to shoot is is the Dow priced in in in euros because if the Dow makes new all-time high in euros then we know that there's no new alltime there's no major top. Does that make sense? I hope I didn't screw that up too much. >> Yes. No. No. I'm following man. And I was checking out even the dollar this year. Yes, totally. And the currencies matter so much when you talk about the strength, the inherent strength really under in that index when it's going against everything, right? >> It it it does. It does. So, if we go back if we go back to these charts here, what uh what I've uh what I've also shared with with listeners is that when a major top forms, you're going to get topping patterns all three time frames, daily, weekly, and monthly. So, in this case here, I just went back to the most recent uh bare market that we had, which was January 5th, 2022. um which is in January 2022. On January 5th of 2022, we have a TD9 count top. So there's your daily top. On January 7th of 2022, we have Basel Chapman's wave number seven top. And in January of 2022, we've got Steve Rhodess's roads dimm indicator topping pattern out there. So in January of 2022, we had topping patterns for all three time frames. That's what led to that bare market. So where are we at currently? Where we at currently? And this is kind of interesting. Um unless there's some kind of major substantial change in price in the next uh 36 minutes, the monthly time frame for the Dow is going to generate a sell the DOI top. We will have a bearish shooting star candle and we have a daily uh roads midum indicator top. What we don't have for the Dow Tommy is a weekly top or I should say at least not just yet right now and we it's only Monday but right now we've got a bear sash candle from the weekly chart. If we do end up with a bearish reversal candle come Friday, we will have topping patterns for the daily, weekly, and monthly time frame. And that would add to my concern out there because now we've got tops that took place all in the same day. We've got topping patterns for the daily, weekly, and monthly chart for the Dow. And that says, okay, it's time to totally pay attention. Make sense? >> Yes, it sure does, man. And the Dow's under a little pressure today. Got down 3 330. So, we'll see. And it's it's going to be we got a jobs Friday but coming into that that you know end of the summer weekend as you said. Yeah. >> Yeah it is. And and but just as I tried to find some clarity I then go back and say okay I want some confirmation. I want a double confirmation of this. And for me that means go back and take a look at the equal weighted charts. And here this is the equated charts for the Dow. And if we take a look at the Dow in its monthly time frame Tommy there's nothing even close to a top out here. There's no top >> whatsoever. Totally. The only thing that I will say though is we can see that the equal weight for the Dow and this is true of the Dow itself has rallied for five consecutive months. That alone, so you don't have to have a top, but that alone is enough to get a one or two bar type retracement out there. Uh the last time we saw the Dow rallied, it actually rallied for seven consecutive months. So we had one month of a pullback out there. But the eagle weight maybe what this is telling us is that the September retracement isn't going to be anything substantial out there. That's the best reading that I've got right now. What I did was I've got here's the top 10 for Nvidia, the top 10 of the NDX and the top 10 of the Dow. Tomorrow during the show, I'll go through this with everyone because what I did, Tommy, is I went and said, "Let's look under the covers of the top 10 inside the Dow and how many of those have got topping patterns out there." So, I'll save that for tomorrow's show so that the listeners that are listening now can tune in or catch the archive. >> That's awesome, man. I can't wait to watch myself for sure. Folks, check it out. Mastering Probability, great information from Steve as always. Steve, always look forward to the conversation, man. Thanks so much. Good to talk to you. >> Thanks, Tommy. Take care. >> Take care, folks. Check it out right under the newsletter tab. You can sign up while we go on break real quick. You'll have mastering probability. You'll get Steve's updated at the end of the day tomorrow morning and you'll get access every day to that great insight. Great stuff. And yeah, Dow 53,258 from 45,000 right to kick off April. Quite an acceleration. We'll come right back folks. Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this [music] works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain [music] potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the [music] Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading [music] influencers have been alive. 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Steve [music] Rhodess is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's [music] award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing [music] to worry about. Visit tfnn.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days, risk-free [music] today. TFN, educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text, [music] either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger [music] TV. Live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. [music] Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls [music] and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different [music] shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and [music] become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions. Daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. [music] Welcome back, folks. S&P is off by 30 right now as we bounce a bit from that same area in terms of 7680. But guess what? Now we bump into that same area on the top side. We'll see if we bounce around yet again with the S&Ps down by 4/10% right now. And talking about yields. So you got the G20 going on in Asheville, North Carolina for the finance ministers. Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. And you have the Treasury Secretary pushing back on Drunken Miller and the opinion piece he put out recently. Okay. And the Treasury Secretary's push back. He says that the US bond market has been the best performing market since the president came in. When the reporter noted that yields have been rising around the world, he stated not in the US. They're flat since the president came in. And yeah, he wrote a op-ed piece in the journal. And the point of the one the op-ed piece the drunken miller writes in the journal is that it's a mistake. You can't buy your way out of a solveny conversation with liquidity tools. You can only postpone the conversation and raise the eventual price. They're manipulating the market to artificially decrease yields without having an actual conversation that would inherently impact the underlying yield and the fundamentals driving those yields higher as opposed to I mean imagine folks, okay, if you have an Saturday Night Live skit and they all do it, okay, this is listen and you know Bessant went after yelling incessantly because she wouldn't push any of the debt to the longer end of the curve. And if you had an SNL skit and we're like, "Hey, you know what? Uh we're in a lot of debt, folks. We got like 40 trillion in debt. And what should we do?" And you're the Treasury Secretary. And he's like, "This is my job, right? I'm the Treasury Secretary." He's like, "I got a great idea. It's really hard to get anybody to buy our debt right now at the rates we want to pay. So, we'll just buy our own debt and that will artificially raise the price and decrease the yield that we have to play. Going off a little a little sidetrack in the sarcasm, right? But that is what's at play. And there's difficult decisions that need to be made by that Treasury Secretary because yeah, we have 40 trillion in debt. We're fighting wars that aren't paid for. And there's no end in sight. And that's a problem. and and inflation is the backdrop of that. And so anyway, Treasury Secretary pushes back. You know, one of the things that drunken Miller stayed in there is that one of the ways that he's made so much money is right going after when countries try and manipulate their own currencies because the market always wins. and the Treasury Secretary is saying basically we're exceptional and we'll be fine. There are real risks to that one folks. On the short term though, it's a little bit of a battle between Treasury and the Fed. And yes, he is correct. Okay, if you go back here, the Treasury Secretary is completely correct that yields are right where they were when President Trump took office, January 2025. What he doesn't include there is that yields yields skyrocketed coming into the president taking office with the expectation that inflation was going to be an extreme problem and then you got higher price and lower yield as that did not happen right we had a definitely a little bit of volatility out here but so yes now we're just back to oh no the expectation when the president did come into office that yes, we do have higher yields, we do have inflation, and we do have a debt problem. And yeah, pretty remarkable at that war, you're talking about 5.99% was the mortgage. And now folks, yeah, now we're pushing 6.86. And as I mentioned, you're talking about a number, someone buying a $450,000 home. You put down 90 90 grand. You take out a mortgage at 6.87. 87, the highest level since June of 2025, up another 12 basis points since Thursday. Jackson Hole, baby. Mortgage prices are going up. So, check it out. EKS, I was running the numbers. So, we EKS in the D was talking about what you would need for income, right, to qualify for that $360,000 loan. Now that loan, okay, at 6.87 gives you a principle and interest payment of 2363. You got to add in taxes and insurance. Okay? So asking chat GPT over the break. You put that into a number. Let's say you're paying 5 to 600 bucks a month in property taxes, maybe. Okay. Okay, 3 to 500 a month in homeowners insurance, right? You end up with a all-in housing payment of around 3,300. Okay, 3,400 something like that a month. Right now, if you make a 100 grand a year, your monthly gross is 8333. Let's see if I can grab this and slide it over. And by making a h 100red grand a year, folks. All right, check this out. Because here's the chart. By making 100 grand a year, your housing payment is 40% of your income. Okay? Now, if you have good credit, the general consensus is, and help me out if I'm wrong, I'm not a mortgage broker, folks, but you're talking about potentially 31% 28 to 30%. Okay? Maybe up to 40% housing ratio, right? But it depends what kind of other debt you have. That's if you have no other debt. And yeah, once you get to, you know, a number where you're talking about 40%, I mean, look at, you know, [snorts] I mean, they really want you at around 40%, 30. I mean, it's just amazing that you need that type of income. I'm I'm staggering on it, but yeah, you're talking about 110 $120 grand and that's after saving 90 grand. And that's just to buy a $450,000 house. And I say just and $450,000 you can still buy decent houses in a lot of markets, maybe a little bit away from the ideal spot you want to live in for $450, but boy, in some cities, folks, Tampa, Boston, New York, Chicago, 450. It's a tough order there. 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[music] Welcome back, folks. We got the gold contract down $40 today and quite a pullback last week. Most of that on Friday and most of the volume on Friday as well, but last week you do 933,000 contracts. You take a look at the daily and yeah, last Friday, 268,000 contracts. Now, compare that to some of the selling we had in the October pullback, right, to the spike high in February. Not a comparable sell-off. That was an important sell-off. And we get non-farm payrolls for August on Friday coming into the long weekend. Okay. Kids getting out of school half a day on Friday. And yeah, it's it's no one's leaving just yet in terms of we got, you know, the Fed. The one thing Mr. Worsh did okay with Jackson Hole is that he set the stage a bit stronger that if the inflation numbers come in and they are as harsh as they've been and they give no reprieve then the conversation could shift to the potential for him to make those hikes and get inflation under control. Now are yields going to rise from here if that happens? Not necessarily because the market's already pricing in the hikes and it's gotten that viciously wrong before, folks. So, we'll find out on Friday. We get non-farm payroll numbers. That's the most important data point of the month for August. All more important because they've got a Fed meeting coming up September 16th. And right now, the market is a 2 to1 favorite that we get a hike on that September 16th meeting. You go out to October and almost a 60% probability we're higher by one hike in the next two meetings and add in a 16% chance that we actually get two hikes. Hike, hike. And then December, 9% chance we get three hikes by then over three meetings. 40% chance we get two hikes over three meetings and a 40% chance we get one hike. only an 11% chance priced into the market that the Fed is not going to hike by year end. So, they can still hike and that doesn't mean rates are going up. It's where we're going from here and that's your expectation. And right now, the market's expecting some hikes. All right, let's jump around. Mickey D has been under pressure. Pull back last week. You know, you got below this earnings week and you did so on lighter volume, but you also traded with more volume than we did over the prior two weeks. Not what you want to see. All this selling coming in and this is going to be the end of the month. I look at the last four months selling, selling, selling, selling. Slightly less volume, but in terms of context here, doing 93 million shares. That is a strong month to the downside on McDonald's. You engulf the prior month. Not quite on the volume, but it's strong volume nonetheless. Cole's up by 1% today. TJX. Yeah, speaking of breaking out of channels, man, I'd be careful on this one, folks. You got a lot of TJX. Get your spikes up, man. Okay, this is a decisive break. It's a break with volume. It's not even easing up today. Down another 1%. This thing just traded from 160 to 133. They've been a darling, but those channels are powerful, folks. Look at IBM, right? Almost touches the top of that channel after breaking lower and boom. Look at that volume. How's that volume for you now? Nothing like this month. Maybe maybe that's that's a sign that times are easing on IBM. You get a little bit of a lift, but no volume on the lift. This is going to be the lightest volume we've done since January as you catch a slight reprieve. IBM shares almost flat today. Yeah, lighter volume month for Amazon as well. Last trading day of the month here. And tomorrow we got a new Apple CEO, Mr. Turner. They jump over the heat map. We got Apple, this is the Dow, right? Apple down 1.1%. Google down 2.2%. A Amazon up 2.7%. But yeah, as Steve mentioned, he's going to go over the waitings and the Dow and a price weighted index. You better believe Goldman, man. 1,027 Goldman off by 7/10% right now. UNH down by 610%. Yeah, Caterpillar and $800 equity in the red. Let's jump over to Salesforce. Quite a month for Salesforce. You take out the entire year and you do it with volume. Now, you're not taking out the June lows with volume. But that's strength, folks. It's strength with volume. That's your monthly. Take a look at the weekly. And yeah, they blew it away on earnings. Now, it would have been great if you could have taken out like this high with volume, but that's a good number, man. You're up by 1.3% today, continuing that run. And Crowd Strike, look at it. Up by 5.6% right now. That's your weekly. Look at that. That's a perfect engulfing, man. Look at that. Hindsight always 2020. And then that's a perfect. Let's take a look at the monthly. And yeah, you're going to trade with more volume on a monthly, but the weekly is beautiful. Nice bullish engulfing. You take out the week of a of August 17th. You do it on 67 million versus 41 million. And boy, what a buying opportunity that was right when they almost brought down the entire internet in July of 2024. when there's blood in the streets, folks. And I exaggerate, but there's a great example, man. So, Disney with a decent month, but not with volume. Look at this. 194 million. Last couple months, you traded 232 and 238 to the downside. Just can't get out of this consolidation, man. Been in this consolidation back 12 years ago. Disney down by 4/10% today. Jump over to Netflix. Yeah, very weak volume on Netflix on the monthly. Look at that. That's going to be one of the lightest volume years months. We're at about 600 million. Yeah, you're going back in over a year. Lightest volume month in over a year for the bounce on Netflix, folks. down 50% retracement of the move from the lows. Now you got some nice support at the 2021 highs here on Netflix though. You do. But we need a little bit more volume. That's a light month. August, right? August in the summer, man. And yeah, how about that folks? School's down here. August 11th. So what's going on now? They get out a month early. All right. They don't make them go to extra school. They get out a month early. But August 11th doesn't make sense going back to school on August 11th. [music] All right. Got a little bit of bid in the markets. NASDAQ 100 just made session highs. S&Ps right back. Yeah, session highs for a moment there. We got 10 minutes left to go in the trading day. Markets catching a bid. S&P is off by 22. NASDAQ 100 in the green. Come right back, folks. [music] Many trading newsletters attempt to focus [music] on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these [music] hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. 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Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. [music] At TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. [music] That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have [music] tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters cover [music] every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day moneyback guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. Don't forget you can listen to TFN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfn.com then hit watch tiger TV. That's tfn.com then hit watch tiger TV. [music] Welcome back folks. You market straight a bit higher coming into the close. Nvidia up by 1.2. 2% right now. And what's remarkable is remember Nvidia's got about 25 billion shares outstanding. So today alone we're approaching right now as you're hitting session highs adding almost $70 billion in market cap. And it puts in context when they come out with stories that they're investing $3.5 billion in MediaTek. It's quite a story of leverage when you think about the way they are leveraging the equ excuse me the equity in their business right in their stock to invest in the equity of other businesses. So yeah 3.5 billion in MediaTek it's a Taiwanese chipmaker. They're going to buy bonds convertible to shares and the transaction will be Nvidia's largest direct investment yet outside of America. Now, they got a lot of special purpose vehicles, and I don't know how that classification plays out, but nonetheless, this is talking about chips, and it's part of a $3.9 billion convertible bond sale by MediaTek. Apple and other investors also participated. Round and round we go. Nvidia shares up by 1.4% right now. Google shares though, quite the sell-off some of these big AI spenders. Google off by 2%. Amazon rip lower on the open. That was even before the FTC news came out. Look at it. Get it back. Oh, what was that? What just hit? Something hit. Look at all that volume. Could just be volume on the close, but crude up a bit. And you got gold pulling back. But hey, oh, there's a little lift on gold. GDX down by 1.3%. Folks, thanks for tuning in, spending your time with me. Couldn't appreciate it more. Time, the one thing we never get back. Go out there and spend that time per spend it wisely, folks. Enjoy it. Whatever you're doing, live in the moment. Enjoy that time. Thanks so much, folks. Have a great night. We'll see you tomorrow 9:00 for the morning market kickoff. Has a have a great one, folks. Building wealth.