August-31st Steve Rhodes on The Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

Welcome back, folks. S&P is off by 33 points right now. And right now, folks, as we do every Monday at 3:15 p.m. Eastern time, we're going to talk to our man Steve Rhodes. You can check out Steve's outstanding program, folks, every trading day right here on Tiger TV, The Trader's Edge, 11:00 a.m. till noon. Check that out. You can always search for that on TFNN. Search for it on YouTube, I mean, right there. And then if you head on over to the front page of TFNN, folks, you click on the newsletter tab and you will see our man Steve Rhodes Mastering Probability, folks. You can sign up. It's an outstanding daily newsletter. And you get updates in the morning, in the afternoon, in the weekend as well, folks. It's a comprehensive report. You get great webinars in there as well. And it comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. So, please try it out. You can't go wrong. Steve Rhodes, good afternoon. >> Hi, Tommy. How are you today? >> I'm doing great, man. How's your Monday going? >> Good, you know, and hard to believe end of summer, right? Supposedly. But for us, summer's year-round. But uh you know, the end of summer. >> You know what happens, Steve, is that when Tommy started school, my brain went haywire. And I And I said, "This is not cool." You stole That was the end of summer. And it was like August 11th. And And And I'm from the Northeast. And And these know You know, I I I always But hey, I know I had to face that reality on August 11th. So, me I Anyway, yeah. They start very early. >> Yeah, we And obviously down here we've got a lot of people from the north Northeast. And school just started this weekend. And on my my walk Yeah, my walk this morning My walk this morning you can tell there's a lot of people that are no longer, you know, in the area uh so to speak. But And And I'll tell you real real real quickly before we get into this. We had the strangest weather here this weekend. I've been in Florida for over 40 years. I can't ever recall seeing this. And what this is is from about 8:00 in the morning on, we had lightning all day Saturday, a good portion of yesterday. I mean, normally if you you know, we get some type of tropical storm or something, that's that's different. This was just normal storms and lightning. >> huh? >> Yeah, I was which is very difficult to play golf when there's lightning out there. So, we typically don't. Yeah, yeah. >> You go hide away. >> But what we would do, you know, we talked about this last last last week we were together, which is the seasonal the seasonality of September and how, you know, it really is the biggest fear of the stock market. We've got This is now the Dow chart. So, usually I show the S&P. This is the Dow. This is 129 years worth of data. We can see again September is the worst performing month. We looked at this last week and we saw that it was a little bit better than a coin toss, but when September's bad, it's usually pretty bad. And in the Dow, the case of the Dow, the red vertical line time, that's where we're at. Typically on average it it tops around the end of next week. Middle middle to end of next week. >> Right at the end of the summer. >> that, yeah. >> Right? >> Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So, um you know, I I've been I've been very bullish because of what I've seen in the charts. But even even when I see what's in the charts, I still go back and say, "Okay, what have I missed?" Well, the one thing that what would be my biggest concern in the stock market is this set of charts right here. And this shows the Dow priced in dollars, euros, yen, Australian dollars, a Swedish krona, the Great British pound, Swiss franc, Chinese yuan, and the Canadian loonie. What you'll notice is the yellow line where I've got all-time highs, they all made the same all-time high They made the made an all-time high on the exact same day. With one exception, that that was the yen. And the yen made its all-time high earlier. Those folks that have listened to my show over the years know that when we have the Dow priced in other currencies, that's at new all-time highs, it's an indication that we are not near an all-time high in terms of US dollars because the Dow doesn't top in it doesn't top first in US dollars and then tops later in in in foreign currencies, at least the euros the euro because of the studies that I've done. So, if we take a look at what I did was then said, "Okay, so what else do we have some all-time highs where we had every everything topped out at the exact same time?" So, I've got January 14th, 2000. You can see the top on both for the euro as well as US dollar the exact same day. The only difference that I had here was in in October 2007. And here there was quite a quite a difference, huge difference because the the Dow priced in euros had topped in 2001, June 5th, 2001. So, huge divergence, but the point here is that again the Dow tops in dollars first, not in other currencies. And then we give it because of because of time zones and so forth, you got to give it let's say a 48-hour window, if you will. Um which is what we had here in January 5th, we had the Dow top. Oh, actually this was just before in euros was one day before. So, it's really So, how this helps us uh Tommy is we want to be paying attention to the Dow. If you want, I'm going to just take come off of this screen here for a minute. And we what we want to be paying attention to, shoot, is is the Dow priced in in in euros because if the Dow makes new all-time high in euros, then we know that there's no new all-time there's no major top. Does that make sense? I hope I didn't screw that up too much. >> Yes, no, no, I'm following, man. I was checking out even the dollar as you say. Yes, totally. And the currencies matter so much when you talk about the strength, the inherent strength really under in that index when it's going against everything, right? >> It it it does. It does. So, if we go back if we go back to these charts here, what what I've what I've also shared with with listeners is that when a major top forms, you're going to get topping patterns all three time frames, daily, weekly, and monthly. So, in this case here I just went back to the most recent bear market that we had, which was January 5th, 2022. Which is in January 2022. On January 5th of 2022, we have a TD9 count top. So, there's your daily top. On January 7th of 2022, we have Basil Chapman's wave number seven top. And in January 2022, we've got Steve Rogers' Roads to the Indicator topping pattern out there. So, in January 2022, we had topping patterns for all three time frames. That's what led to that bear market. So, where are we at currently? Where are we at currently? And this is kind of interesting. Um, unless there's some kind of major substantial change in price in the next, uh, 36 minutes, the monthly time frame for the Dow is going to generate a sell of the D point top. We will have a bearish shooting star candle. And we have a daily, uh, Roads to the Indicator top. What we don't have for the Dow, Tommy, is a weekly top. Or I should say at least not just yet. Right now, and we it's only Monday. But right now, we've got a bear sash candle from the weekly chart. If we do end up with a bearish reversal candle, come Friday, we will have topping patterns for the daily, weekly, and monthly time frame. And that would add to my concern out there, because now we've got tops that took place all on the same day. We've got, uh, topping patterns for the daily, weekly, and monthly chart for the Dow. And that says, "Okay, it's time to totally pay attention." Make sense? >> Yes, it sure does, man. And the Dow's under a little pressure today. Not down three 330. So, we'll see. And it's it's going to be we got a jobs Friday, but coming into that that, you know, end of the summer weekend, as you said. Yeah. >> Yeah, it is. And And but just as I try to find some clarity, I then go back and say, "Okay, I want some confirmation. I want a double confirmation of this." And for me, that means go back and take a look at the equal weighted charts. And here, this is the equal weighted charts for the Dow. And if we take a look at the Dow on its monthly time frame, Tommy, there's nothing even close to a top out here. There's no topping pattern whatsoever. >> Sorry. Yeah, totally. >> The only thing that I will say though, is we can see that the equal weight for the Dow, and this is true of the Dow itself, has rallied for five consecutive months. That alone, so you don't have to have a top, but that alone is enough to get a one or two bar type retracement out there. Uh the last time we saw the Dow rally, it actually rallied for seven consecutive months, so we had one month of a pullback out there. But the equal weight, maybe what this is telling us is that the September retracement isn't going to be anything substantial out there. That's the best reading that I've got right now. What I did was I've got here's a the top 10 for Nvidia, I've the top 10 of the NDX, and the top 10 of the Dow. Tomorrow during the show, I'll go through this with everyone, because what I did, Tommy, is I went and said, "Let's look under the covers of the top 10 inside the Dow, and how many of those have got topping patterns out there?" So, I'll save that for tomorrow's show, so that the listeners that are listening now can tune in or catch the archive. >> That's awesome, man. I can't wait to watch myself, for sure. Folks, check it out. Mastering Probability, great information from Steve, as always. Steve, always look forward to the conversation, man. Thanks so much. Good to talk to you. >> Thanks, Tommy. Take care. >> Take care. Folks, check it out. Right under the newsletter tab, you can sign up while we go on break real quick. You'll have Mastering Probability, you'll get Steve's updated at the end of the day, tomorrow morning, and you'll get access every day to that great insight. Great stuff. And yeah, Dow 53,258 from 45,000, right, to kick off April. Quite an acceleration. We'll come right back.