Video summary
The daily market recap begins with significant pressure across major indices following the Jackson Hole symposium and rising yields, which have extended losses from Friday into the current trading session. The ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.75%, driving crude oil prices higher while causing the dollar to retreat slightly despite the interest rate environment. Gold is under substantial pressure, having pulled back $47 from its recent lows, though it remains up 12% overall since those lows. In contrast, the semiconductor sector, represented by GDX, has shown remarkable resilience, rallying nearly 40% from its starting point and currently outperforming gold as yields spike and market volatility increases.
Tech stocks are holding up relatively well despite the broader sell-off, with the Nasdaq 100 down only a quarter of a percent while Amazon faces specific headwinds that have dragged its shares down nearly 3%. The primary driver of this volatility is a newly broken story regarding an FTC investigation into Amazon's advertising practices, which claims the company misled advertisers about pricing mechanisms. This legal development adds a layer of uncertainty to Amazon's stock, especially given the company's history of planned share sales by Jeff Bezos, creating a complex narrative where earnings acceleration coincides with potential regulatory scrutiny and billions in potential fines from similar cases involving Facebook.
The broader economic backdrop is heavily influenced by surging mortgage rates, which have risen significantly since March, impacting affordability for homebuyers. With the thirty-year mortgage rate now at 6.87%, up from nearly 6% when the current cycle began, a typical buyer could see their monthly payment increase by almost 10% on a $450,000 home, a stark reminder of how sensitive housing costs are to interest rate fluctuations. This economic pressure is compounded by the upcoming release of August nonfarm payrolls data, which will be a critical focal point for investors as they navigate the end of summer and approach Labor Day. The market is currently reacting to these macroeconomic shifts with caution, showing high volume on downward moves in yields but struggling to find support as the dollar continues to face headwinds despite higher rates.
Read the full video transcript
O'Brien
>> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien
coming to you live from TFN and thanks
for joining me kicking off the final
hour of the trading day and we got
markets under pressure right now
extending some of the losses we had on
Friday following Jackson Hole and yeah,
we got yields continuing higher. Now
part of the backdrop here is you got
crude pushing higher up $2.25.
So crude is higher yields right now the
10-year off another seven. We'll call it
six ticks lower at 107 22. How about
4.75%
on the 10-year.
Higher yields persisting the dollar
right now.
Dollar actually backs off. So 99 42 even
as yields persist. That's been a trend
recently and gold lower but off of the
lows gold off $47 off 1% at 44 82 and
the GDX only off a buck though. Check
out the GDX, right? You're holding at 98
24 in the GDX.
We started this rally at about 70.
Meanwhile, you got the gold contract at
44 82
and this rally started at about 4,000.
So you have gold up 12%
from the lows that we made this little
consolidation area, all right? With
diverging right at the beginning but
talking about gold pulling back and you
got a GDX
that is up
$28. So 40% from 70. Right? Even if you
call it 75. So GDX holding up leading
right now in that market but gold under
pressure when you got yields higher and
yields are part of the story right now
but we got a market
with an S&P off by about half a percent
right now. We just bounced from an area
of support of 76 80 but you're off by
half a percent at 76 87 right now.
Tech stocks holding up relatively well
even with Amazon. We'll talk about it
down nearly 3%. Nasdaq 100 down a
quarter percent off 71 points 29,419.
The Dow under pressure.
See that escalation this morning? The
the off 6/10%
off 338 points 53,246
and you got the Russell right now as
yields are spiking again off 9/10% off
26 points at 2952.
And yeah, Amazon. So, the FTC, as I was
just talking about in the top of the
hour update there. Now, quite the
acceleration on Friday. This market is
something, right? $10 up, $10 down one
day, one day.
Even a company like Amazon not immune to
the volatility and that's after
You remember this day when we found out
Bezos was selling?
Now, it was part of a planned sell,
right? But, they can always
do away with that plan, right? They can
always change that plan if they want to.
So, it's it's like an option that costs
you nothing that you can rewrite at any
time that they have planned sales. You
get a nice acceleration on the earnings.
Bezos moves out some shares as part of
that planned sale and here we are in the
same month with the FTC
launching an investigation.
Oh, forget me. Come on, where are we?
The story just jumped away from me.
Oh, shame on me.
Uh, yes, but the FTC it's going to be
right here.
There it is.
FTC suit claiming it misled advertisers
on pricing. They make a lot of money on
advertising, folks. This could be a big
one, okay? We'll find out the details.
This just broke at 2:00.
A group of states is also said to join
the potential lawsuit. Now,
Facebook just paid what? 16 billion?
That Amazon admits had been misleading
advertising clients.
And yeah, they may get billions of
dollars cuz they're taking in so much
money. The ads, sometimes known as
sponsored listings, appear at the top.
Amazon said investigators misrepresented
how
its advertising auctions work and
presented no evidence of harm to
shoppers.
You know,
and they're they're going to push back,
of course, but
it's just a little black box, right? You
know, Google ads, all this stuff, and
yes, they got algorithms, they have all
that, but if you've ever done any
advertising on that, folks, oh man, it's
so difficult to find out what they're
actually charging you for, you know, how
the
the efficiency works of everything. And
hey,
so nonetheless, you got Amazon shares
down 2.9%
and boy,
you know, the way this thing is moving
right now, folks,
wouldn't be surprised if we give up this
acceleration back to like 240. You know,
you're on a
exceptional channel right now.
Okay, look at this beautiful channel on
Amazon from the lows
at the start of 2023. You talk about
nearly 4 years to the upside, but 240 is
hanging out there, man, and you are
trading with some volume now.
On a monthly, you're not going to have
the volume.
Yeah, on weekly, you're pulling back on
light volume as well. We'll see if that
changes this week. We're coming in
you know, Labor Day, end of summer,
though, as we trail off. Now, the one
thing that's going to keep you here this
week, though, folks, is we got nonfarm
payrolls on Friday for the month of
August, and it's an important one.
You know, look at this on a daily. Now,
this is very short term, but
look at the way you're ripping lower.
Now, this news just broke in the last
hour. So, if this had been a story that
the market was digesting all day, you
might get more volume, but that FTC
story just breaking in the last hour
Amazon with 25 million shares on the
pullback today and you did almost 50
million on the acceleration on Friday.
And yeah, look at this tenure man.
Watch out below. So we're at 10720.
Start of the war at 114.
And yeah, highest since June 2025.
Right now folks the mortgage rate is
6.87%.
You know what it was when the war began?
5.99.
And to put that in context
buying a $450,000 home putting 20% down
on it you talking about 90 grand down.
A $207 more you're paying 2363 as
opposed to paying 2156.
And yeah, that's if you can qualify.
Pretty remarkable just since March,
right?
That's a That's a
almost a 10% increase in your monthly
payment.
And imagine that's your 10% increase in
your monthly payment for 30 years.
Pretty remarkable.
Not remarkable when you look at this
chart though.
And there it is. Look at the volume we
got last week.
Right?
Yeah, the tenure trades down with force.
You jump over the 30 year right now
down another 21 ticks.
And you actually had some action on
Friday in Jackson Hole.
Look at that. So you actually bounced a
bit.
We're giving it back on no volume
whatsoever today.
But yield higher
dollar. Even with yield higher though
dollar backs off a bit. Dollar
struggling at 99.42.
S&P's off 32 points. We're coming back
with Steve Rhoads, folks. We're talking
some markets. Always a great segment. Be
right back.