Video summary
The video begins with an update from Larry Pesto regarding the market conditions for TFNN on August 28th, where he apologizes for missing the live trading session between 9 AM and 12 PM ET. He explains that a previous video already outlined the expected events, but emphasizes the current reality involving the Federal Reserve Chairman's comments on interest rates. Despite initial disbelief from the market about an immediate rate hike, the situation has shifted significantly, pushing prices down to near recent lows. This movement is framed as a critical weekly close, which historically does not typically signal a bullish pattern, suggesting that the downward trend is likely to continue rather than reverse immediately.
A key focus of the analysis is the formation of a three-drive bearish pattern around the 106 level, indicating sustained selling pressure. While Treasury bonds have not yet officially made new lows, they are approaching them very closely and are expected to break through by the end of the day or early next week. The speaker notes that short-term Treasury notes are declining more sharply than longer-term instruments, reflecting a broader market reaction to the interest rate environment. He highlights that large institutional investors, often referred to as "the big boys," are clearly aware of this trend and are likely driving the momentum downward, reinforcing the bearish outlook that has been discussed for some time.
The transcript concludes with an observation that markets opened strongly but subsequently stalled at expected levels, which will be further analyzed in upcoming segments to see how these numbers hold up throughout the day. The speaker reiterates that while no one can predict the future with certainty, the current trajectory suggests prices may drop even faster than anticipated before potentially finding a bottom. Ultimately, the message is one of caution for investors to watch for strong openings followed by stagnation, as the prevailing sentiment remains bearish in anticipation of further declines in bond yields and related assets.
Read the full video transcript
[music]
TFN
Headline news [music] update.
Hey folks, Larry Pesto for TFN and I
want to apologize. I was not able to do
the live trading today between 9 and 12
cuz I just couldn't do it. I sent out a
video that pretty much explained what
was going to happen. We'll go through
that. But here's the real thing that's
going on, folks. Uh chairman, our uh
Federal Reserve boy, [laughter]
man, when you have when our Federal
Reserve chairman comes out and talks
about higher interest rates, people uh
didn't didn't believe that he would
raise rates today, and I'm sure he
didn't. But you can see where we are
now. We're almost ready to take out the
lows. So, this is a weekly close, folks.
Then this is not a bullish pattern. It
hasn't been. We have a three drive
pattern that is forming down here at
about 106. The bonds have not made the
new low yet, but they're very they're
going to be very very close by the end
of the day and certainly early next
week. What you have to focus on this is
the weekly, but you have to f now you
don't have to focus, but the boy the big
boys with big money, okay? They see
this.
And believe me, they I know they see it
because it's I've seen on the internet
enough, but this we've been talking
about this quite some time. Now, we
believe that it's going to go down and
just take that out and maybe make a
really good bottom now. That's what we
don't know. And remember, no one knows
what's going to happen next, but we've
been bearish these for a long time, and
they're starting to go down even faster.
I'll take a quick look here at the
Treasury bonds and you'll see it was
doing pretty much the same thing today.
If I can get them up here in time and
get the daily up. They haven't made new
lows, but they're getting close. Oh,
they're not even that close, actually.
They're Oh, shut the front door. Let's
get this out of the way. There they are.
They're they're actually uh two points
away. So, you can see the notes, which
is the short-term paper is going down.
the others are uh you know not going so
much. All right, but what we we we said
in the video, but watch for these
markets to have a really strong opening
and they stopped pretty much where they
should have. So, when we get back, we're
going to go through some of these and
take a look at them and see how these
numbers held up so far today. Okay, so I
I hope that helps. So, bear with me here
and I waiting for the music to come on
and uh hold on here. There it is. We'll
be right back, folks.
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