August 27th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

The following is a presentation of TFN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. Hey Robin, how you doing man? >> Yeah, it's good and thank you for taking my call. I wanted to let you know that I've been a subscriber for a couple years, just different members of your team and I really enjoy it. But really the reason I'm calling is to express my sincerest gratitude for you providing that information yesterday on the small business grants. I'm a small business owner, primary bread winner for my family, and if I can get that money, it's going to really mean a lot to my family. So, that's awesome. Thank you for uh taking the time to do that. >> No. Well, listen, man. We appreciate you growling and prowling with us. Now, Tom O'Brien. >> Good Friday afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN. Thanks for joining me for the final hour of the trading week. And we got markets right now retracing from the acceleration higher. Mr. War, he spoke and the market thinks that yeah, they may actually bring it when you're talking about the potential hikes that are coming down the line. Yields higher on a short-term basis. Right now, we have the 2-year pushing higher to the tune of almost 12 basis points on the 2-year. Right now, we got a market that pulls back from that first acceleration. Now, Mr. Walsh was talking at about 10:00. Okay, he wraps up at like what 10:45, something like that. You got an acceleration all the way up until 11:30 and then the market gave it up. We trade south technology stocks trading a little bit lower driven by Nvidia of all equities. But right now you have an S&P down by 3/10%. We take a look at the volume and we got some volume today folks. All right, we got a whole hour left to go. We got a weekly finish in terms of volume and right now we're at 1.23 million versus 1.27 yesterday. You jump over to the ETF structure on the SPY, no volume there. on this pullback. Look at that. Right. Nice acceleration higher with volume of 35 million yesterday. You're backing off with only 25 million. NASDAQ 100 down by 8/10% trading at 220 points in the red 29,476. You jump over right now to the cues. And look at the volume as well. Now, you'll get some volume in the final hour, but it's not going to be a huge day, which is remarkable when you look at the action, two-way action in this market. Higher and lower. You got a Dow right now barely in the red by 39 points at 53,582 and the Russell getting clobbered higher yield not kind to the Russell. Okay, Russell now 1.3% off 38 points at 29.80. Now there's no denying folks. The move is to lower price and higher yield today. That's for sure. Now we'll see if it carries through in terms of after today. But right now you take a look at this yield curve. Okay, especially on the shorter end, more Fed dependent, right? But even on the longer end, the 10-year up by five basis points, 4.72. Your 2-year up nearly 12 basis point, up 11. The oneear is up 12 basis points to 4.14. Quite a number. 4.35 on the 2-year, excuse me, the 5year up by eight basis points to 4.48. So, the chairman spoke and the market listened and that's your 10ear to 10729. You jump over to the 2-year right now. That's a big move on the 2-year, folks. Down by seven ticks to 10224. Yeah. How's that for you? And that was the last Fed meeting right here. Right. So, you get it all back today. All that credibility. We'll see if it carries through. Dollar catches a bid on higher yield. We're right back to where we were before the Treasury announced that they're going to be buying back our longerdated securities. So going to be interesting to see how that seesaw battle rages on in gold with quite a pullback off by 3.3% right now the GDX and yeah that's quite an engulfing okay down by 4% down $420. You know the other side of this folks I'm talking about this thing was up 50% in the span of five weeks. Okay, now the market's responding here, but even a 382 brings you back to almost 90. And that's just the move you did over 5 weeks. Okay, so longer term, I still think, you know, the Treasury is going to be suppressing longerterm yields even with this move, right? Cuz this move is on the shorter term end, which should carry through to the longer term end, right? If we get inflation under control now, that will help with yields on the longer term as well, cuz that's what the longer term part of the curve is a worry about right now, that we're getting inflation. We have runaway debt, which is inflationary as well. And if the Fed can't get it under control, longerterm yields are going up. Well, today short-term yields are really reacting long-term as well. We'll see where we go. All right, some equities with action today. Marvel Technologies down 10.4%. 4%. Yeah, light on guidance and you're almost at session lows right now. But Nvidia, how about it, man? So, they take it, they giveth and they take it away, right? Look at this, man. Nvidia's got nearly 25 billion shares outstanding, folks. That's a 275 billion market cap loss today for no good reason, right? because you got a higher yield market, okay? And the market pulls back and Nvidia's driving it. Now, on the flip side of that, look at the strength of Microsoft up by 1.9% right now. Amazon shares up 3.6%. You talk about it, man. Google up 2% right now and Meta up 1%. So, you jump over the heat map and it's the chip stocks, right? It's not the hypers spenders. They're carrying this market right now. Think about if Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon weren't all in the green. Everything would be getting smoked. That's the only thing saving the S&P right now, down nearly just 21 points. Yeah, there's Marvel down 11%. Jump over the NASDAQ 100. Yeah, the Russell. Okay, the Russell has a lot of equities that are much shorter in their duration of their yield. So, they're much more yield sensitive, right? And you know, you you get the Googles and the Microsofts of the world, they'll go out 40 years with their debt. Okay? So, they don't care what happens on a short-term basis. But smaller companies, they can't do that. They can't borrow um a debt structure with a 40-year expiration, right? Lifespan. No, they have a much shorter lifespan. So, they become more yield reactive. And on days like today where you're getting spike and higher yield, look at the pullback we got across the board right now. The Russell down by 30, excuse me, 38 points leading the way down. Let's take a look at the Russell. So, look at this. You're almost coming into a one to one. And that's from the lows of CO. It's about time the Russell catches up. Look at that. Take a look at the weekly on this thing. Yeah, volume's been late since this week of June 8th. You pushed to a high of 2974 right there and we're at 29.80 right now. You jump over to Apple up 1.6%. So you get Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta all in the green. And yeah, they're hiking subscription prices for Apple TV and Apple 1 in the US. Now, a small sliver of the business they do, but Apple TV, it's going to be $15 from $13. Huge percentage hikes, right? We wonder how percent, you know, nobody hikes their prices 5%. Man, that's a 15.4% price hike. How's that for you? And Apple 1 goes up $2 as well. And I do subscribe to that right now. I like some of the stuff on there, but they also have some some stuff that doesn't deliver. I like F1. Those numbers on F1 are down. I don't know if it's worth $15 a month. $180 a year. I don't know about that. S&Ps are by excuse me, down by 21. We'll come back. Take a look at some metals. Take a look at gold, folks. >> Researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey. 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And it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. Welcome back, folks. as we jump over the CME swaps and yeah quite a little reversal. So you we bring these up occasionally. Okay. And yesterday or should say this morning, right? The odds at their next meeting, this is September 16th. Yesterday there was a 35% chance of a hike. Today there's a 58% chance of a hike. Now doesn't mean the market's going to be right. You go out to let's go to October 1st, the next meeting after September, October 28th, that number shifts higher as well. Only now a 30% chance they don't hike by the October meeting. That number was as high as 50%. A day ago. The disclaimer is look at where it was a month ago. So good luck figuring out where we're going to be October 28th, right? when look at the swings we get. So we're swinging today. Okay, we're swinging today. I find it very difficult to imagine we're going to get this level of hikes. Okay, and then you go out to December and you have one to two hikes priced in 40% and 40% 38.7 39.6. They're lofty numbers. Lofty numbers. It's a lot of hikes priced in in this market right now. Now, you look at those hikes priced in, right? And you say, "Okay, are we going to rise from here in yields? Are we going to go down from here in yields?" If we're going to rise from here, keep in mind that already there's two to three hikes priced in, excuse me, one to two hikes are priced in by December. All right, let's go over to PayPal. So, they're not going to get purchased as in Yeah, the deal falls apart. And so, where do we trade back to now? Probably $45. You got all that strength from when this deal broke. $46 is the number. And I'd probably be a little bit more patient if I was trying to get in this equity. Yeah. And who was it that a consortium led by payments rival Stripe and private equity firm Advent International had abandoned plans to acquire PayPal. Take a look at the market cap right now. $46 billion market cap. Look at all the names, right? Venmo, of course, the big one in there. Yeah, that's a tough one. I'd say we're going back to where we broke out. 45 bucks. We'll see how you trade into that area on PayPal. Interesting to think about what's going to happen with Tesla and SpaceX. I imagine they're going to combine at some point. He's going to be able to control both companies and do a deal in the same way that he did a deal with XAI and SpaceX combining, right? SpaceX becomes XAI, they're one company, then it rolls out to an IPO, which is SpaceX. Now, that Tesla's going to roll into that. And it's going to be structured in a mana manner that allows Elon's pay package in Tesla to be released. And one of the ways that happens is if Tesla gets bought out. And right now SpaceX is a $1.8 trillion company. And Tesla is only a $1.3 trillion company. Look at the volume on a weekly basis, right? Just keeps dropping. And no real emphasis. Jump over to SpaceX on the volume. We're trading at 140 right now. Let's put on the daily. What's interesting is going to be how the volume profile evolves as more unshares get unlocked. Doesn't mean that it should ramp up, but it is going to be interesting to see as those unlocking periods extend, more shares get unlocked. You're going to have volume spats, right? like we had after their last earnings, but a period of calmness for SpaceX. And then look at the last four or five days, right? Just chopping around right near the IPO price of 135. All right, we jump around to metals and yeah, we got some volume today in gold, man. Not a good sign on the short term. Okay, you take a look at the weekly. Now, here's where we're trading into. Okay, you did 1.279. We're at 924,000 right now on a weekly. Take a look at the ETF structure, the GLD. Okay, same thing, right? You're trading back into that first acceleration from March after you pull back. And in each case, you don't quite have the volume. And boy, it's a heck of a pullback, though. And Few gold bulls out here. You know, you don't want to see a change of trend here. As in, we had a nice trend. I believe this is going to be a short-term move. As in, you know, right now there's a lot of hikes priced in. You take a look at the 10-year, right? We're at the lower boundary from in terms of price. Lower price, higher yield. This is about as bad as it's gotten on the 10 year. Almost all throughout CO, right? You look at the 10 year, man. The lows at the end of 2023, we're barely below where we are right now. 30 years is a different scenario, of course. Okay. But the dollar is going to trade more so off that 10 year. Yeah, quite a reversal on a weekly basis. We'll see how we do as we bump up to the 100 area, which has been support and resistance for the dollar. We jump over to silver right now. Down $311 pennies off 4.4% for silver. Picking up some volume as well. That's your weekly. Take a look at the daily there. Look at that volume coming through. It's a big day when you get this type of move in yields moving, folks. You know, the short end of the curve, that is quite a move. Lower price, higher yield. The market's believing the chairman for right now that he's going to bring it and maybe maybe just that will do the job, right? That's kind of what he's hoping, okay? That less is more and yes, they're going to take inflation seriously. Now, we'll see if he actually has has the guts to go through with the hikes that the market's potentially pricing in if these inflation numbers persist. And, you know, their their assessment is that yeah, he may not be done fighting inflation. Okay, they may not be done. Those are some of the headlines that you'll see over the weekend. The Fed may not be done fighting inflation. Well, we'll see. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed otherwise we have work to do. You know I recall Powell at one point saying we have to get it out of everyone's head that inflation is everywhere. Think about that right? There was a time when we all didn't talk about rampant inflation. That's where the Fed wants to get to. We're not even close to that when you put it in that perspective. We'll see if that's what he really means when it comes to hikes, though, or if that's the the force he's representing. S&P's off by 18. We'll come right back, folks. Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology in order to accurately call movements in a wide range of equities from semiconductors to uranium to key indices and so much more. 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Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. Welcome back, folks. S&P is off by 20. NASDAQ 100 off by 200. We have yields higher today. We got dollar strength. You got gold pulling back right now. And as you have dollar strength, you jump over the yen. Not with the not with the administration in Japan wants to see quite the acceleration. Yen weakens, dollar strengthens. We're right back to 160. I was talking about this morning the intervention in Japan. It was a hundred billion dollars, folks. Hundred billion dollars. Their intervention in this market. We're right back to 160. Now, the Treasury Secretary defending his move talking about a disorderly yen would risk higher rates. Okay? Because the US worked with Japan to defend the yen. And the Japan's a major holder of treasuries. Okay? Okay. And this is a response to Elizabeth Warren. Disorderly yen markets can trigger forced unwinds which could destabilize global markets and ultimately raise borrowing costs for American families and businesses. So essentially this move was another manipulation of the yield market, right? Because if he didn't step in, Japan was going to sell their treasuries because they needed to to support their own currency. So the Treasury Secretary says, "Don't sell our treasuries. Don't do that. We'll step in and we'll provide the money that you were going to get by selling your treasuries if you had to. And you can use that money cuz we will invest in the power of the yen to strengthen your yen against our US dollar. So it'll weaken our dollar. But that's okay cuz we're not worried about our dollar weakening versus the yen. We're worried about our yields right now. That's not quite what his letter said, folks, but it's it's it's what it means. And yeah, he probably has a point, but again, okay, he says no credit was extended to Japan. Japan owes Treasury nothing. There is therefore no risk that Japan will fail to repay a debt that does not exist. That's not the risk when you're trading currencies and trying to market manipulate a currency, right? And Amazon. How about Amazon? They they these companies are going to need all the energy they can get, folks. They're going to buy electricity from four wind farms in Sweden. Almost 200 megawatts of electricity. Once fully operational, Amazon will have nearly one gigawatts of supply in Sweden alone. Cuz these hyperscalers, it's more going to be about infrastructure and energy. So that gawatt of wind energy is 350,000 households alone. A gigawatt. So last year they were the largest corporate buyer of fossil fu fossil-free energy in Sweden. 700 such projects globally a portfolio exceeding 40 gawatt. How about it man? And boy, Nepal, these visuals, staggering, sad, and you're talking about thousands of course and just, you know, the power of mother nature, the power of water, man. And those poor families over there. It's just uh a complete wipeout. And and man, not much more you can say. Keep them in your thoughts, folks. be thankful for, you know, the beautiful life we have because, man, can be taken in a moment just like that. It's almost apocalyptic, right? I mean, the size we're so we're so tiny. We're little ants, you know? That's one wave. One wave and and it just wipes out everything cuz that wave in mother nature, we are just tiny ants on a rock floating through space, man. All right, let's take a look at this heat map. Jump over the S&P 500. What do we got moving? Yeah, pretty remarkable pullback from Nvidia. They crushed it yesterday and you're barely going to finish in the positive from where they came into those numbers. All right, yesterday you came into those numbers at about 21250. Today you're at 217 and change. Yeah, Salesforce with a nice nice continuation of their run. Some big numbers yesterday for them. That was a nice breakthrough of that area as in that was an area of support. 2024 25 you break right through it. We're challenging the highs earlier this year and it's got some tremendous volume. And you got highs out here from just last year at $369. Nice round number. Basel Chapman Crowd Strike giving back some of those gains. Put this thing on a weekly. Strong numbers yesterday from them. And yeah, that's still an awesome weekly. Look at this. Would be nice if you could take out this entire previous bar though. And the high there was 21918. Not going to do it. See the body was at 21653. Oh, so you're going to take out the entire body of that candle. But you do what you do with volume, strong numbers. Take a look at some retail Walmart. It's a tough looking weekly. Say you're probably heading back to 90 bucks. Sounds wild. You're at 10296 down from 135. All these companies under price pressures right now. Jump over to McDonald's. Look at that weekly on McDonald's. Not good. Catching a bounce today. Up by 1.7%. What do we got? Mickey D's bouncing for. Yeah, no real action. This stock taking a beating this year from 341 to 264. Well out of its channel now. Look at this channel. You know Walmart's got some affordable excuse me Walmart. McDonald's has some affordable food again. I feel like but that's probably the problem with their stock chart, right? They're forced to compete in a mean and green way on price and it's very difficult to take the amount of money they want to the bottom line. All right, gold down by 3.2% right now. We take a look at the volume and yeah, we got some volume. Well, we'll see how we set up next week, folks. You know, gold's got a lot of strength. We're still up from 4,000 to 4,500 right now. And you just had the equities trade from 70 to 100. And look at the look at the equities. We're not even pulling back with volume. So keep in mind the size of the move we had. The 382 brings you all the way back to 90. And that's possible. We've had a heck of an early run on this from 70 to 105. Folks, thanks so much for tuning in. Enjoy your time this weekend, folks. You know those think about those people in Nepal. Enjoy your time. We're so privileged every day you're alive, folks. Enjoy it. Enjoy that time out there. Have a great weekend, folks. Safe weekend. See you on Monday, folks. Thanks so much.