August 25th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] >> Hello folks, we're back. I'm Basil Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. Uh this is the Tommy O'Brien Show and as always free sitting on a Tuesday, who do we have? We have the author of The Secret Science of Market Tops, Tim Ord, and The Six Secret Ratios Every Trader Should Know. These are uh these are videos, these are webinars that were done by Tim. Hi Tim, how are you? >> Good. How you doing? How you doing? >> I'm doing well, thank you. >> So um well, let's skip beginning here. So um this is um me right here. Uh I'll do this real quick. Um yeah, okay. My website is www.ord-oracle.com. My uh email is Tim at at ord-oracle.com and I'm also on uh Twitter. Uh if you want to I post every once in a while. But anyway, that's how you get a hold of me. So let's look at the market. Um >> Great. >> Uh this is the uh this is a weekly SPX top window and the bottom window is the weekly VIX. And it's been staying uh well, it actually we're lower right now. We're like 15 and a half. But anything below 17 uh is usually bullish for the market. I probably should have uh but anyhow, we're at 16 below 17. So the VIX is not showing any signs of of uh placing a top not right now of any consequence. We do have support. Uh this is the SPX around 7,600, which is basically the previous highs of uh June and July. And we're getting close to that. Um we're just a common consolidation phase. Uh the daily part here kind of the this one back here is the weekly. Also, I want to talk about the uh weekly SPX ratio. I'm kind of going all over the place here, but in general, when the SPX VIX ratio is above the mid Bollinger band, and also the SPX is above the mid Bollinger band on the weekly time frame, the trend is up. And that's reason why I put this in the green area. These are all the green areas when uh both of them are above their mid Bollinger band. The yellow area is when the SPX is above the mid Bollinger band, but the SPX VIX ratio is below. So, that's kind of a warning sign. And sometimes uh market still can move higher as long as the SPX stays above the mid Bollinger band, the trend is up. But a lot of times, the SPX VIX ratio leads the SPX. So, here you can see it is below the Bollinger band. And when the SPX falls below the mid Bollinger band, it's a sell signal. That's the pink areas. So, we got a sell uh like in there. >> Right. So, you're talking about this thing. You you're not showing any pink at all, right? >> Yeah, there's nothing so far even on the weekly time frame. There's uh So, I'm not seeing any danger at the moment. Uh here's another This is the daily. We had a sign SOS is a sign of strength through the previous highs. And that's what you have to have through the previous highs. The previous highs are the June and the July tops there. And you have to have a sign of strength through those highs. We did get And that day when it jumped above the highs, we had 60 uh 69 M. It stands for 69 million shares. And so, you also got a gap right there. And that's reason why I put the gap there. So, the gap's around This is the SPY around 70 755 760 area. And we haven't touched that gap yet. A lot of times you get close. We're kind of in there last 4 days. And I bet we test the gap this week. And And uh you test the gap on 10% or lighter volume, that gap will hold as support. If you test that gap on 69 million shares or more, uh the gap will fail and you and you could possibly start reversal. Well, over the last uh couple of weeks, we've been hanging more or less around the 40 million shares. So, if that volume remains consistent, and we go down test that gap uh They anything less than actually 62 million shares, 62 million is 10% less than 69 million shares. So, if you test the gap on 62 million shares or less, that most likely that gap's going to hold and you start next rally up. That's probably what's going to happen. I bet this gap gets tested this week. But again, as long as there's 62 million shares or less, that gap will hold as support. So, that's probably going to happen. Uh from there, I I think, you know, we after the gap is tested that it is tested this week, then how high is high? I don't know, but I bet we break at least this high. So, we'll have to wait and see, but so far remain remains bullish. Here's another reason why uh I think uh the previous highs, now there's this high back here, which is around looks like about 7,800 area, uh is at least going to be tested if not exceeded. The reason why is cuz the RSI on the last run up, this run up up up the last run up we had at the last high, the RSI hit 67. Uh ideally, the higher the better, but it would have been trouble if it only peaked out around 60. These are the times they hit 60. And for those times, you go back down here and that's what happened. That's where the tops perform. Momentum momentum usually lags at the end as a rally matures, momentum starts to weaken and the RSI measures a way or identifies a way how much that weakness is performing I guess you might say. And the last RSI 67 is still decent momentum to the upside, but if we break a new high or if we break a new high on the S&P's and we fail to get above 60 on the RSI, will be the time to worry and I think that's a good chance the next rally could do that. >> So you are talking >> see how that works out. >> Can I just check you talked about the 779.37 high of the 13th all time high? >> So what do you >> So when you're referring to the 780 level you're talking about that's that would be the breakout if it went above that and you then you're talking about the volume. >> Uh so yeah, I think we're we're going to we're going to break above the previous high of 780 hundred on the SPY. That's what I'm saying. So what's your question again? >> No, that that was you just answered it. Thank you. >> Okay, I do think we're going to test that high if not break it and the next high in my opinion if the RSI does not get above RSI 14 does not get above 60 are the times you'll have to worry. But if we do get above 60 close to 70 or somewhere in that vicinity, then that rally is going to continue. So the next rally have to have at least some sort of a upside momentum either through the RSI or through volume. So I do think we're heading for consolidation though it's just because September seasonality wise is not usually a good time. So we'll see how that works out, but I'm still long. Uh we break new highs and volume kind of decreases and RSI fails to reach above 60 then I'm probably going to turn bearish, but we'll have to see if that happens or not. But I'm not bearish now. I do think new highs is is going to be seen? So >> Right. >> Uh actually we're going to hear some music here in about 2 seconds. >> Right. >> Uh so I guess we're going to have a break here, but maybe not. Well, >> Uh yeah, yeah, the clock says yeah, I think why just why don't you go until the music? >> Right. Uh Very uh >> There's the music. You got a lot of it. Thank you. As long as Basil Chapman here sitting here for Tommy O'Brien on the Tommy O'Brien show. We're having our usual 3:30 afternoon Tuesday afternoon uh interview with Tim author of the old article. Tim, would you like to continue? Are you going to go to the GDX or you want to continue with the S&P? >> No, I I think unless we got questions on the SPX that we can go to the gold market. >> Okay, good. >> All right. All right. Uh this this is momentum indicator the bottom window. This window down here is a GDX up down volume with the 50-day average. So GDX has around 62 stocks in it or 61. Forgot which one it was, but they got a bunch of stocks and majors. The up volume of all those stocks and actually down volume all those stocks and and I did a 50-day average of it. So in general when this indicator is above zero, you got an uptrend and that's all the blue area here. And when it's down below uh zero, it's in a downtrend and that's all the pink area here. Uh this is GDX uh This is GDX right here. So uh that's the top window. So you can see the blue area you gone up and you go down. We've been down in that pink area for a while and it flipped to blue here I don't know a week or so ago and we're in the blue area again. So we got an uptrend. And this indicator I kind of took the longer term view of it just so it won't be so whippy. so when these indicators flip to a buy signal, at least they're a multi-month buy signal and sometimes even longer. Uh they're very Sometimes they're they're months, sometimes you get a short one, but you I want to look at the bigger trend cuz the trend's where you make all your money. And also uh you want to have this indicator off the low. Okay, you hit a low here and you want this indicator to hit above plus 20. And I I that's one indicator here. Uh another I didn't I didn't put this one down, but this did hit 20 and it hit it again in the early 2025 and again in early in 2024. Um the reason why that's the initiation of an uptrend. And when you get them, you get you get a rally that's usually This one lasted about a year. You got initiation of an uptrend even though we had that a back back here. Forget that was news oriented, but anyhow, in general the GDX rallied for about a year. And last time we had uh that indicator, you know, you got you got we had initiation uptrend about there. So from here to here was about a year. And so you want this indicator We're at plus 6.47 right now. You want this indicator to continue higher to hit 20. If it does hit 20, then this rally could last into August of next year. That's what I'm hoping for. Uh so we'll see if that happens or not. But if you get a real strong rally off of a low, you know, you get a mediocre rally then it usually is it's a mediocre rally all the way through. If you get a really a surge of strength off the low, then those rallies are going to last a lot longer. So I'm hoping this rally continues. There's evidence that may happen and here's reason why. Uh this is uh this is keep bringing this indicator up, but the bottom window is the uh, monthly GDX GLD ratio. And here's the monthly GDX. This chart goes back to 2006. And it's up to the current time frame. And it's been this GDX GLD ratio. In other words, when this ratio is rising, then GDX is outperforming GLD. GLD is ETF for gold. GDX is the ETF for gold stocks. So, what that says is gold stocks are outperforming gold. That's what happens in uptrends. If you notice here, in general, the market moved higher for 3-4 years in the uptrends there, then the market uh, and this ratio went down for a number of years, and so it did the the ratio. Ratio's kind of gone sideways for 13 years, even though the S&P has rallied the GDX has rallied. This ratio, I think, is breaking out right now. And if this ratio breaks out right now, the next upside resistance is this high back here, which is around four or 0.4. We're at 0.25 right now. And I I think it's breaking out. The reason why I'm thinking it's breaking out because of this chart. This is the uh, this is the the daily GDX, and this is the daily or this is daily GDX GLD ratio. So, it's not a monthly now, it's a daily. And this is the daily GDX. If you notice GDX has not hit above its uh, March high. We're coming in around 100 or so, 100 105 looks like. The high was around 117. So, we're making at the moment, we're still lower than the previous high. But look what's happening here. This high came uh, I don't have that number. But anyhow, right now, we're at the 25, and the previous high was uh, I don't know, 23 and 1/2, 20 say 23. So, GDXGLD ratio is making higher highs where where GDX so far or GDXGLD ratio is making higher highs and GDX so far has not, but GDXGLD ratio leads GDX. So, if GDX making higher highs, this that suggests this rally is going to continue at a minimum to test its previous highs and possibly break break above those highs cuz GDX ratio leads. So, what that means to back on this one, so at least we're going to get back to the previous highs and if this ratio keeps going higher, then we're going to keep going higher. There. >> [clears throat] >> So, I'm thinking in general this ratio is breaking out now. We are going to go to .4. What that means to GDX it What that means if if GDXGLD ratio goes to .4, that means without gold moving at all at current levels, GDX would need to go to double. In other words, it need to go to 208. So, that's what's in store of it I think what's happening here over the the next year or so. I think GDX from the current price is going to double over there I don't know, maybe a year, maybe 2 years, don't know. Think it could be just a year. So, I don't think we'll hit a probably a previous high around 17. We may consolidate a little bit, but that's not the final high. We're going to keep going higher. So, there's there's a big opportunity of um of a rally on GDX is going to double from current levels. So, um things may change, but what's that mean? Here's I keep using this comparisons. Uh the bottom window Oh my. Uh let me get my tool again. It dropped off. I don't know why it drops off. But, the bottom window here is the NDX. The next window higher is the XAU to NDX. So, it's a monthly chart. So, when this ratio is rising, that means gold stocks is outperforming NDX. >> Right. >> And what what I'm thinking is going to happen here, this is probably similar with to the year 2000. 2000, gold stocks outperformed Nasdaq uh from 2000 to 2011, I think it was. So, it did it for about 10 11 years, 12 years. They got a cycle here. And the RSI of that ratio stayed above uh in general stayed above 50 for those 10 12 years. If you notice right now, that RSI has just turned back up. So, it did find support at 50. So, I'm thinking this RSI is just going to stay between, I don't know, 50 to 60 range, 50 to 70 range. Over the next several years, that means gold stocks is going to outperform the Nasdaq stocks. It's going to be similar to 2000, probably 2011. So, if you're a long-term investor, you'd probably be better off with gold stocks. >> I I think you got a little cough coming there, but I do appreciate it. >> Yeah, sorry. >> I understand. It's great analysis. I think we [crying] all appreciate it. And thank you. We'll be back here on Thursday. Tomorrow from the Ord Article, great information. Thank you, sir. Have a great couple of days. >> All right, thank you. >> Thank you. Folks, we'll be back. Basil Chapman Technical Analyst hosts the [music] 10:00. Tonight, I'm sitting in for Tony