August 25th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. >> Let's go to Eddie and [music] Boarton. Hey Eddie, what's going on? >> Hey Tom, how are you man? >> I'm doing great man. Yourself? >> Good, good. It is a treasure to have TFN [music] every hour during the trading day to be there to help you to guide you and even to give [music] you some peace of mind or like that somebody else is there with you while you're while you're trading this crazy market either up [music] or down. >> Well, listen, we appreciate you growling problem with us out here cuz we wouldn't be out here folks if we didn't have all you guys gals tigers and tigers as his clients and you know the market teaches you every single day man. Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] Hi folks, Basel Shamp for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show on this Tuesday, August the 25th. Just about to wrap up the month. Got another couple of sessions to go. Let's get to the nitty-g gritties. The Dow's up 143 at 53,560. Uh the top width was made uh at 54,744 on the 5th of August at that peak D. peak. Do you remember the fourth highest peak in the Chaffen wave? That's where other things can happen. We've had a slide from 54,700s to the 52,700s. Uh that was a very quick 2,000 points. Now, there's a bit of a bounce. I think this bounce is likely to fail, but at some point we will get that leg D in the weekly chart for an all-time high. And it's only a monthly chart. Remember CH wave always expect a buy signal upgraded to a buy mode to go to at least four higher peaks. Well, the monthly chart is in a buy mode and it's only in leg B. But wait a minute, the S&P monthly chart is already in a leg D. So, you have to now look at the technicals. Well, the technicals, the 914 is very strong. I had a one uh uh 1.61 expansion going to the 7815 level where the high was 7816.70. Um I still think this is a leg D, but it's going to go higher. Not only that, the weekly chart has made a peak C. So, it should still go to a higher high for that leg D. Now, the weekly chart, the daily chart, I everything about this says that's probably a peak effort at 7816.70 around about the what was it 13th uh 13th of August [clears throat] and that is starting to stall. That will impact the weekly charts very soon. But in the meantime, we've got the QQQ with a different chart. Look, this is a arch over the daily chart of the S&P. Look at the um severe pullback you've got in the QQQ, which made an all-time high. And look at this. This is an alltime high in the 3rd of June at 748.65 PG pulls back and it creates this in this is a technique I developed a long time ago. It's where instead of just a trend line, I have an actual channel, a little mini channel. And then mini channel says every time the price goes into that area, is there going to be another pullback? If it's declining, it's now a resistance area. If it was ascending, it would be a propellant or a trampoline type push to the upside. This is a pullback. So the QQQ's are really taking a bit of a beating. They're being the high was early the very beginning of June. This is now almost the beginning of September. And we haven't broken this even longer term downtrend uh little mini channel inside track repellent zone. But the tules the 914 is still good in the weekly chart. Hey, look at this. This is the IWM, the Russell 2000. Russell 2000 hit a high of 305.18. I've got there's no other way right now that I can count it. Um other than as a peak B that says we should have a pullback. Um and there should be higher highs to come. It's a leg D, a peak D already in the weekly chart. Only a leg C in the monthly. So there even the Russells 2000 small caps IWM should go to higher highs in 2026. Wait a minute. The SMHS that's really important. Semis lead us up. Semis lead us down. They've been leading us down for a while since the high that was made [clears throat] that was at the 671.83 level on the 22nd of June. A peak D, right? Pakd other things can happen. push which pulled back straight down to 503.63. Had a good rally, stalled at about just under 600 at a peak E. And now it's arching over. This is the pattern that I talk about very often. It's the H pattern. Let me see if I can just get this to arch over right here. E, I don't think I'm going. Yes, I can. There it is. Okay. So, that's a pattern that I talk about very often in my um in my shows, the 10 o'clock Tiger Technicians Hour. It's where I look at three major patterns. Straight up, straight down, that's one. Cup formation or V-shaped formation, that's two. Arch formation, inverted or pyramid formation, that's three. Or a mix of one and two or one and three. Here's one and three. Arches over and starts to fail. I'm watching this very closely. 914 is weak. The MACD is weak. Stoic very weak at 27%. Onbalance volume is weak. So, [cough and clears throat] sneeze coming. Sneeze gone. We've got ourselves a little potential H pattern in the weekly chart at a peak B, but it's only a peak C in the monthly chart. So, VANC semiconductor should have a bit of a breather. Uh, Nvidia has its earnings this week. I don't care what it does. Uh, this is a is weakness and it's going to take a little while, another maybe couple of weeks before we really start getting back to the higher level in the 650s, but I think we will make an all-time high above 671.83. uh at least coming up uh in the next um couple of weeks. Okay, [snorts] let's go to the um next thing that I want to look at here is gold. Gold is up uh 19 at 4717 longlegged dogee candle right there. Leg D. Uh look look at this measured move that I have from the 4876 high that was made uh that the high that was made right here. That was uh on the 12th of May. Uh we went all the way to this double bottom of 3955 and 3963. Arch formation goes to a lowercase M shape and then it turns around and it forms this beautiful cup formation. We have been along from way back um in the uh in the gold and silver positions. the gold we've been along the PHYS from $20 back in November of 2024. Took lots of profits, kept a core position, and look at the the way it's held. PHYS. Look at this. PHYS. Slightly different. Oh, did I Oh, I typed it in the wrong thing. Let me just do this. Messed up. Doesn't matter. I'll fix it up. P YS. Doing seven things at once. Look at that. left side, right side target is the 7th of May which is at 36 08 and we've already got to this peak D because there's no new high so far today and I suspect that we will get there over the next couple of days. However, what's really important is that the Bitcoin when we got this buy signal just about a week and a half ago because it was breaking that resistance level. When you have a rectangle, long rectangle that is forming at the bottom of a trading range, that's way important. If it's at the top, that's usually a big negative at the bottom. If it does break out, it can break out very sharp. You're only a leg see at 81,350 high today. uh our Bitcoin has really done very nicely um about 15% higher from our entry point but I think that this is that rotation we've been talking about that's going into other areas and the semiconductors and some of the taxs are very weak and that's what we're looking at for the next couple of I even say maybe 3 to 6 weeks I'll be back in a moment trap sitting for Tommy and Brian this is the Tom O'Brien shows up 117 S&P's up 16 I'll be right If you spend [music] any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. 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Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice [music] can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At [music] TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very [music] own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. [music] TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try [music] any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. Just visit [music] the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 [music] p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the [music] market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight [music] different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become [music] the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. [music] So, we were just talking about that H pattern. Well, look at this. Here's the E- mini. The 10 minute went to a PG early this morning at about 6:00. It made one H pattern that failed, then another one that failed. And now it's making the pattern that I call the lowerase H goes to a lowerase M. If it takes out the left side low, this will be the low of about 767 that by the end of the day, we could have a quite a weak close. Anyway, let's get back to our story here. This is usually when Tommy interviews me. You can go to the front page of TFN and check it out. my opening call daily newsletter. I have webinars just tons of webinars on this. And let me let me just show you something else. So um I like the pattern where you look at the bar symmetry. So the bar symmetry can either be where it comes down exactly where the number of bars on the left come down to the number of bars on the right that goes right back to that level either up or down. Uh but sometimes it doesn't work out to the exact number of bars. you have to use uh I say artistic license but I have a very specific way of doing that. So I just wanted to show you something here. This is um Agnico Eagle Mines. Besides the fact that we've had a gold and silver positions for a very long time and we added to this just the other day um because I thought that if gold and silver are breaking out then you wanted the very best because they move so powerfully. Yes, you get beautiful winners. I mean if the small c I mean our core mining uh silver stock has gone 50% from from the low that it just made but that the real issue is that you want to have power and the power said that ago eagle AEM is the symbol uh it's trading at 224.34 up 6.45 today almost 3%. The 22 first of all the target that I had was this level right here 200.64 64 that was on the high of 11th of May and it came down and I couldn't use the low because that low it looks so imbalanced. I had to find different candles which which is what I do and which is what I teach. So the first level of 200.64 it went to the PD it pulled back one bar and then it went all the way right through. So we were we got long um we were fortunate we got long at 180 back on the 13th um the 13th of August. Can you believe this? What 10 10 days is not even 10 sessions. This was 78 sessions. Anyway, so look what happened. It went powerfully through the 224.35 high. That was the high of um the 17th of April. I thought I don't know if we're going to get there. Well, we got there today. We just hit 224.34, one penny below that. But look, the price time that I use plus the champion wave dash green inside wedge target repellent line. Look how it went to the very day today. Look how it hit it just two days ago, then yesterday, and today it's just broken above it. And that's that that's the time price match that I love to do. So that that one worked. We had the same sort of thing. So that's uh what about 25% gain I think in just a very just less than two weeks. But look at this IW the I I bet. This is the eyesh. We were very fortunate. We had this from uh 39.15 way back IBIT and it went all the way to 71.82. And then I said no no I I don't like this. We're getting we're keeping a little bit and we're getting out of most of it. And eventually it came down sharply. I'll have to go to the uh Bitcoin itself, BTC. So Bitcoin, people keep saying to me, Bitcoin, how can you trust Bitcoin? I say I have no idea. All I can tell you is that um it's a viable instrument. You put your stop in and that's it. I don't care. Just you want the market is there to make money. So what happened is we did trade this rally here, but it got to a peak C. Uh where where did that go? uh Bitcoin. Yeah. So then what happened was it got there and then it sort of pulled back and then I we were out and I said, "Okay, we're going to have to wait." And then we waited and then we finally got back in. So we got back into the ibit right here. That was on the uh that was around about the 19th. I think it was about the 19th of Let me just double check. I don't want to give you the wrong time. Whoopsie. I don't want to do that. Oh, did I just mess it up as well? What is wrong with me here? Today's one of those days I can tell. Just let's put that back. There you go. Okay. So, this is I bet. So, we got long on the um on the 19th of August. So, where's the 19th 19th 19th 19th right right there. So, we got long and look how it's gone. It's gone straight up. And what's really I haven't done the left side right side price time match on this uh for some reason u my target was this left side high of the um 26th of May of 44.24. Now actually let me just do this live. Why not? So I I would have gone from here normally this is what I would I would do. I'd go from there and I'd look to the midpoint because I already we this this this had already moved on. So I would have looked there and I would have said okay let's see if I can do a left side right side price time match. So I go to that particular high then I go click and I do that. I don't know whether or not it's going to work or not. Doesn't matter. And then I say you know that looks just too far away. I'm going to make it a little bit short. So what happened is and then what I do is I go from the left side low and I have to go from the the pen ultimate trough. So, I go like this and I go to the right and I just move it up like that. So, this is the one that's a little bit different in that. Oops. Let me just change that. So, that was already going too far out. But what I would have done is based on this trend line here, I would have said this particular candle right there is the one that I would like to use. And let's see if that's going to work. And this is just a guideline. If you can't go to the exact load to get a number to say it should move in exactly 28 bars back up again whatever it is then you have to use some artistic license. So this one has gone a little bit further ahead right but in fact look what it's done um and now what I would have had to do is that I would have made that the trend line trap wave inside wedge target repellent line. So measure that. Okay. So here it is. It's broken above it. And now what I look at is I say, okay, where's the next high? Well, the next high is 4656. That little double stop there. But I always go to the lower one. I go one step at a time. Uh in my mind, I could have something else, but 4653, that's about another just less than two points. That would be my target upside target at least for this move. So it's not the issue of going up. is where's the support? 4287 is the 200 period moving average. Now, let me just show you something about 200 period moving averages. Look, we have not touched the 200 period moving average since it broke down right there. What's right there? Right there is the November the 12th of 2025 when it was in the 50 59 area. And look, every rally fella at a peak D underneath the 200 period moving average. One peak D, two peak DS, three peak D's, and this one went to D, E, and even went to F and a G. Now, that's important. So, what's really appropriate here is to say that this is the cluster area that's been tremendous resistance. So between right here 44 and 46 that's going to be the issue except for one little tiny thing. Look this is the first time we've broken above the 200 moving average. I would say that's important and the stochcastic is at 94% and the MACD is still expanding. I think that gold and Bitcoin are telling us that there's a rotation in the market and this is an area that's really become quite exciting. I'll be back in a moment sitting here with Tommy O'Brien. We'll come back with Tim Ward. I'll be back in a moment. Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. 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Basel Chapman sitting here for Tommy O'Brien. Uh, this is the Tom O'Brien show. And as always, 3:30 on a Tuesday. Who do we have? We have the author of the secret science of market tops, Tim O and the six secret ratios every trader should know. These are u these are videos. These are webinars that were done by Tim. Hi Tim. How are you? >> Good. How are you doing? How you doing? >> I'm doing well, thank you. >> So, um well, let's skip beginning here. So, uh this is u me right here. Uh I'll do this real quick. Um yeah. Okay. My website is www.ordhyphenoracle.com. My uh email is timwordhyenoracle.com and I'm also on uh Twitter uh if I post that every once in a while. But anyhow, that's how to get a hold of me. So let's look at the market. Uh [clears throat] uh this is the uh this is a weekly S&P top window and the bottom window is the weekly VIX and it's been staying when I actually we're lower right now. We're like 15 and a half but anything below 17 uh is usually bullish for the market. I probably should have but anyhow we're at 16 below 17. So the VIX is not showing any signs of of at least a top not right now of any consequence. We do have support. Uh this is the S&P 500X around 7600 which is basically the previous highs of uh June and July and we're getting close to that. Um we're just kind of a consolidation phase. Uh the daily part here kind of this one back here is the weekly. Also, I want to talk about the U weekly S&P VIX ratio. I'm kind of going all over the place here, but in general, when the S&P VIX ratio is above the mid Ballinger band and also the S&P is above the mid Ballinger band on the weekly time frame, the trend is up and that's the reason why I put this in the green area. These are all the green areas when uh both of them are above the mid Ballinger band. the yellow areas when the S&P is above the mid Ballinger band but the S&P fix ratio is below. So that's kind of a warning sign and sometimes uh market still can move higher along the S&P 500x stays above the mid Ballinger band the trend is up but a lot of times the S&P VIX ratio leads the S&P. So here you can see it it's below the Ballinger band and when the S&P falls below what Ballinger bands the sell signal and that's the pink areas. So, we got a sell signal here >> right at this particular moment. So, you you're not showing any pink at all, right? >> Yeah, there's nothing so far even on the weekly time frame. There's a uh so I'm not seeing any danger at the moment. Uh here's another This is a daily. We had a SOS is a sign of strength through the previous highs. That's what you have to have through the previous highs. The previous highs are the June and the July tops there. And you have to have a science strength through those highs, which it did. And that day when it jumped above the highs, we had six uh the 69m. It stands for 69 million shares. And so you also got a gap right there. That's the reason why I put the gap there. So those gaps around this is the spy around 7 75 760 area. And we haven't touched that gap yet. A lot of times you get close. We've kind of been there the last four days. And I bet we test the gap this week. And now if you test the gap on 10% or lighter volume, that gap will hold as support. If you test that gap on 69 million shares or more, uh the gap will fail and you you could possibly start reversal. Well, over the last couple of weeks, we've been hanging more or less around the 40 million shares. So if that volume remains consistent and we go down and test that gap uh say anything less than actually 62 million shares 62 million is 10% less than 69 million shares. So if you test a gap on 62 million shares or less that most likely that gap's going to hold and you start next rally up. That's probably what's going to happen. I bet this gap gets tested this week but again as long as it's 62 million shares or less that gap will hold support. So that's probably going to happen. Uh from there I I think you know after the gap is tested I bet it is C tested this week. Then uh how high is high? I don't know but I bet we break at least this high. So we'll have to wait and see. But so far remain it remains bullish. There's another reason why uh I think uh the previous high is another this high back here which is around looks like about 7,800 area is least going to be tested if not exceeded and the reason why is cuz the RSI on the last runup this run up up the last runup we had at the last high the RSI hit 67. Uh, ideally the higher the better, but it would have been trouble if it only peaked out around 60. These are the times that you hit 60. And for those times, you go back down here and that's what happened. That's where the tops perform. Momentum momentum usually lacks at the end. As a rally matures, momentum starts to weaken and the RSI measures away or identifies away how much that weakness is performing, I guess you might say. And the last RSI 67 is still decent momentum to the upside. But if we break a new high, if we break a new high on the S&Ps and we fail to get above 60 on the RSI will be the time to worry. And I think that's a good chance the next rally could do that. So you >> So we'll see how that works out. >> Can I just check? You're talking about the 779.37 high of the 13th alltime high. >> So >> So when you're referring to the 780 level, you're talking about that's that would be the breakout if it went above that and then you're talking about the volume. Uh, so yeah, I think we're we're going to we're going to break above the previous high of 7,800 on the spy. That's what I'm saying. So, what's your question again? >> No, that that was you're just off. Thank you. >> Okay. Uh, I do think we're going to test that high, if not break it, and the next high, my opinion, if the RSI does not get above RSI 14 does not get above 60 are the times you'll have to worry. But if we do get above 60 close to 70 or somewhere in that vicinity, then that rally is going to continue. So the next rally have to have at least some sort of a upside momentum either through the RSI or through volume. So I I do think we're heading for consolidation though. It's just because September seasonality wise is not usually a good time. So we'll see how that works out. But I'm still long. uh we break new highs and volume kind of decreases and RSI fails to reach above 60, then I'm probably turn bearish. But we'll have to see if that happens or not. But I'm not bearish now. I do think new highs is going to be seen. So, >> uh actually we're going to hear some music here in about 2 seconds, >> right? >> Uh so I guess we're going to have a break here, but maybe not. Well, I don't >> The clock says, "Yeah, I think Wait, just why don't you go until the music?" >> All right. Uh, >> there's the music. You got a lot in there. Thank you. So, Tim, we'll be back in a few minutes with Tim Ward and just very interesting trading setups in the stock market. The market equities and options report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. tfnN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse [music] ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. For up-to-date pricing and performance, go to direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of [music] leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, [music] and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. The reality is that navigating financial [music] markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest [music] market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFN, we understand that it can be [music] hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts [music] offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters [music] cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try [music] any of our great newsletters risk-f free with our 30-day money back guarantee. >> [music] >> Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. TFN has launched the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders [music] for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market [music] hours. The Tiger Stand available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join [music] our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> Tom O'Brien. >> Hi folks. Basel Chapman here sitting here for Tommy O'Brien on the Tom O'Brien show. We're having our usual 3:30 afternoon, Tuesday afternoon interview with Tim Odd, author of the OD Oracle. Tim, would you like to continue? Are you going to go to the GDX or you want to continue with the S&P? >> No, I I think unless we got questions on the S&P, we can go to the uh gold market. >> So, all [clears throat] right. Uh this this is momentum indicator. The bottom window uh this window down here is the GDX up down volume with a 50-day average. So GDX has around 62 stocks in it or 61, forgot which one it was, but I got a bunch of stocks. It measures the up volume in all those stocks and actually down volume all those stocks and and I did a 50-day average of it. So in general, when this indicator is above zero, you got an uptrend. That's all the blue area here. And when it's down below, uh zero is in the downtrend. And that's all the pink area here. Uh this is GDX. Um this is GDX right here. So, uh that's the top window. So, you can see the blue area. You gone up, you go down. We've been down in a pink area for a while and it flipped to blue here, I don't know, a week or so ago. And we're in the blue area again. So, we got an uptrend. And this indicator, I kind of took a longerterm view of it just so it won't be so whippy. So when these indicators flip to a bicycle, at least they're a multimonth bic signal and sometimes even longer. Uh they're very sometimes they're they're months, sometimes you get a short one. But I want to look at the bigger trend cuz the trend's where you make all your money. And also um uh you want to have this indicator off the low. Okay, you hit a low here. And you want this indicator to hit above plus 20. And I I uh that's one indicator here. Uh another I didn't I didn't put this one down, but this did hit 20 and it hit it again in early 2025 and again early in 2024. Um the reason why that's initiation of an uptrend and when you get them you get you get a rally that's usually this one lasted about a year you get initiation of an uptrend even though we had that batical back here forgot that was news oriented but anyhow in general the GDX rallied for about a year and last time we had uh that indicator you know you got you got we had initiation uptrend about there. So from here to here was about a year. And so you want this indicator, we're at plus 6.47 right now. You want this indicator to continue higher to hit 20. If it does hit 20, then this rally could last into August of next year. That's what I'm hoping for. Uh so we'll see if that happens or not. But if you get a real strong rally off of a low, you know, you get a mediocre rally, then usually it's a mediocre rally all the way through. If you get a really a surge of strength off the low, then those rallies are going to last a lot longer. So, I'm hoping this rally continues. There's evidence that may happen. And here's reason why. Uh this is um this is keep bringing this indicator up, but the bottom window is the uh monthly GDXG ratio. And here's the monthly GDX. This chart goes back to 2006. and it's up to the current time frame and it's been this GDX GLD ratio. In other words, when this ratio is rising, then GDX is outperforming GLD. GLD's ETF for gold. GDX is the ETF for gold stocks. So, what that says is gold stocks are outperforming gold. That's what happens in uptrends. If you notice here in general, the market moved higher for 3 4 years and the uptrends in there. in the market uh and this ratio went down for a number of years and so did the the ratio ratio's kind of gone sideways for 13 years even though the S&P has or the GDX has rallied this ratio I think is breaking out right now and if this ratio breaks out right now the next upside resistance is this high back here which is around four or four we're at 0.25 25 right now and I I think it's breaking out. The reason why I'm thinking it's breaking out because of this chart. This is the uh this is a the daily GDX and this is a daily or this is daily GDX ratio. So it's not a monthly now it's a daily and this is the daily GDX. If you notice GDX has not hit above its uh March high. We're coming in around 100 or so. 10 105. Looks like that high was around 117. So, we're making at the moment we're still lower than the previous high. But look what's happening here. This high came uh I don't have that number. But anyhow, right now we're at 25 and the previous high was I don't know 23 and a half 2 say 23. So GDXGL ratio is making higher highs where where GDX so far or GDXG ratio is making higher highs and GDX so far has not but GDXGLD ratio leads GDX. So if GDX making higher highs, this that suggests this rally is going to continue at a minimum to test its previous highs and possibly break break above those highs cuz GDX ratio leads. So what that means back on this one, so at least we're going to get back to the previous highs and if this ratio keeps going higher then we're going to keep going higher. [clears throat] So I'm thinking in general this ratio is breaking out now. we are going to go to 04 what that means the GDX it is d what that means if GD if GDXG ratio goes to 04 that means without gold moving at all at current levels GDX would need to go to double in other words it need to go to 208 so that's [snorts] what's in store of I think what's happening here over the the next year or so I think GDX from the current price is going to double over there I don't know maybe year, maybe two years. Don't know. I think it could be just a year. So, I don't think we'll hit probably a previous high up around 17. We may consolidate a little bit, but that's not the final high. We're going to keep going higher. So, there there's a big opportunity of of a rally on GDX is going to double from current levels. So, um things may change, but what's that mean? Here's I keep using this comparisons. Uh the bottom window. Oh my [snorts] uh let me get my tool again. It dropped off. I don't know why it drops off, but the bottom window here is the NDX. Next window higher is the XAU to NDX. So it's a monthly chart. So when this ratio is rising, that means gold stocks is outperforming NDX. And what what I'm thinking is going to happen here, this is probably similar, but two the year 2000 2000 gold stocks outperformed the NASDAQ uh from 2000 to 2011 I think it was. So it did for about 10 11 years 12 years. I got a cycle here and the RSI of that ratio stayed above uh in general stayed above 50 for those 10 12 years. If you notice right now that RSI has just turned back up. So, it did find support at 50. So, I'm thinking this RSI is just going to stay between, I don't know, 50 to 60 range, 50 to 70 range over the next several years. That means gold stocks outperform the NASDAQ stocks. It's going to be similar to 2000, probably 2011. So, if you're a long-term investor, you probably be better off with gold stocks. [music] [snorts] I I think you got a little cough coming there, but I do appreciate you said it's great analysis and I think we all appreciate it and thank you. We'll be back here on Thursday. Tim O from the Oracle. Great information. Thank you Tim. Have a great couple of days. >> All right. Thank you. >> Thank you folks. We'll be back. Basel and technicians our host at 10:00 today. I'm sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. I'll be back. Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. [music] But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers have been alive. 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I discussed I on a Friday afternoon, I usually spend an hour, hour and a half after the market closes to go through everything we were looking at during the week, the positions we have, what we want, what looks good. Uh, sometimes we I don't actually put the position on, but subscribers know that if I was liking it, that's something that they could look at. So, I I spent some time this past uh that was on Wednesday. I did it because they're going to be away this past weekend. So, I did my weekend overview on Wednesday and I discussed the ARK, the ARC Innovation ETF. So, um this is Kathy Wood. It's her ARC Innovation Funds and this one here, the ETF ARK is trading up 2.47 at 86.39. So, I had mentioned, so this is now going back to last week. So, we've had one, two, three, four, it was Wednesday. Said, "Here we are." So, we were right here and I was looking at this and I said, "I I've had it on my newsletter as in my watch column that we've been looking at. Look how well it's done. 68.89. We once had this did very well. I haven't been in for ages." And look at the left side high that was made back in July, beginning of July at about 84. That was the target using this particular low right here. So I had that coming in for I think it was Friday, Monday. Yeah, for Friday and we actually when we surpassed it, we went to a legac pull back and I anticipated there should be a D and here we've got our D. But this is very interesting because look the MACD is good, the retro strength is good, the stochcastic's good. I wanted to just mention that there's a rotation going on and that rotation now is taking in are the innovation area uh is holding very very nicely and some of the semiconductors are really had had a problem because this is a rotational market. We're looking at under the radar areas and I think that that's starting to work. So keep that in mind. You can still be in the market. You don't have to be afraid. There are areas to look at. Come on.