Video summary
The market recap for August 25th highlights a mixed performance across major indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 143 points to close at 53,560 after reaching a peak of 54,744 earlier in the month. This recent high represents Peak D within the Chapman wave structure, marking the fourth highest point in that specific cycle. Following this peak, the market experienced a rapid decline of approximately 2,000 points before attempting a bounce; however, analysts suggest this rebound is likely to fail temporarily. Despite the short-term volatility, the monthly chart for the S&P remains in a buy mode within Leg B, while the weekly chart has already completed Peak C and is expected to push toward a higher high in the upcoming Leg D phase, indicating that the broader trend still favors upward movement despite current corrections.
Significant divergence is emerging between different sectors, particularly in technology and small-cap stocks. The QQQ, which recently hit an all-time high in early June, has suffered a severe pullback and remains trapped within a long-term downtrend channel, failing to break out of its resistance zone. Similarly, the Russell 2000 index (IWM) has reached a peak that signals a necessary pullback before potentially forming higher highs later in 2026. In contrast, semiconductor stocks have been leading the market downward since their high on June 22nd, exhibiting a classic "H pattern" where price action stalls after a rally and begins to arch over. Technical indicators for this sector, including the MACD and Stochastic oscillator, are showing weakness, suggesting that a correction is underway that could last several weeks before prices return to higher levels in the mid-600s.
Gold has emerged as a standout performer, surging 19 points to reach 4717 on a long-legged candlestick pattern indicative of continued strength in Leg D. The precious metal's chart displays a beautiful cup formation following an arch and M-shape structure, with analysts maintaining core positions while taking profits on physical gold holdings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has responded positively to a buy signal generated by breaking a key resistance level, climbing about 15% from recent entry points. This rotation into alternative assets coincides with the observed weakness in semiconductors and other tech sectors, suggesting a potential shift in market focus over the next three to six weeks as investors react to earnings reports like Nvidia's and navigate the current technical corrections.
Read the full video transcript
Hi folks, Basel Shamp for Tommy O'Brien.
This is the Tom O'Brien show on this
Tuesday, August the 25th. Just about to
wrap up the month. Got another couple of
sessions to go. Well, let's get to the
nitty-g gritties. The Dow's up 143 at
53,560.
Uh the top was made uh at 54,744
on the 5th of August at that peak D.
Peak D, remember the fourth highest peak
in the Chapman wave. That's where other
things can happen. We've had a slide
from 54,700s
to the 52,700s.
Uh that was a very quick 2,000 points.
Now, there's a bit of a bounce. I think
this bounce is likely to fail, but at
some point we will get that leg D in the
weekly chart for an all-time high. And
it's only a monthly chart. Remember CH
wave always expect a buy signal upgraded
to a buy mode to go to at least four
higher peaks. Well, the monthly chart is
in a buy mode and it's only in leg B.
But wait a minute, the S&P monthly chart
is already in a leg D. So, you have to
now look at the technicals. Well, the
technicals, the 914 is very strong. I
had a one uh uh 1.61 expansion going to
the 7815 level where the high was
7816.70.
Um I still think this is a leg, but it's
going to go higher. Not only that, the
weekly chart has made a peak C. So it
should still go to a higher high for
that leg D. Now the weekly chart, the
daily chart I say is that's probably a
peak effort 7816.70
around about the what was it 13th uh
13th of August and that is starting to
stall. That will impact the weekly
charts very soon. But in the meantime,
we've got the QQQ with a different
chart. Look, this is arch over the daily
chart of the S&P. Look at the um severe
pullback you've got in the QQQ, which
made an all-time high. And look at this.
This is an all-time high in the 3rd of
June at 748.65
PG pulls back and it creates this in
this is a technique I developed a long
time ago. It's where instead of just a
trend line, I have an actual channel, a
little mini channel. And then mini
channel says every time the price goes
into that area, is there going to be
another pullback? If it's declining,
it's now a resistance area. If it was
ascending, it would be a propellant or a
trampoline type push to the upside. This
is a pullback. So the QQQ's are really
taking a bit of a beating. They've been
the high was early the very beginning of
June. This is now almost the beginning
of September. And we haven't broken this
even longer term downtrend uh little
mini channel inside track repellent
zone. But the tacticals the 914 is still
good in the weekly chart. Hey, look at
this. This is the IWM, the Russell 2000.
Russell 2000 hit a high of 305.18.
I've got there's no other way right now
that I can count it other than as a peak
be that says we should have a pullback.
Um there should be higher highs to come.
It's a leg D, a peak D already in the
weekly chart only a leg C in the
monthly. So there even the Russells 2000
small caps IWM should go to higher highs
in 2026. Wait a minute. The SMHS that's
really important. Semis lead us up.
Semis lead us down. They've been leading
us down for a while since the high that
was made that was at the 671.83
level on the 22nd of June. A peak D,
right? PD other things can happen. push,
which pulled back straight down to
503.63.
Had a good rally, stalled at about just
under 600 at a peak E. And now it's
arching over. This is the pattern that I
talk about very often. It's the H
pattern. Let me see if I can just get
this to arch over right here. E, I don't
think I'm going. Yes, I can. There it
is. Okay. So, that's a pattern that I
talk about very often in my um
in my shows, the 10 o'clock Tiger
Technicians Hour. It's where I look at
three major patterns. Straight up,
straight down, that's one. Cup formation
or V-shaped formation, that's two. Arch
formation, inverted or pyramid
formation, that's three. Or a mix of one
and two or one and three. Here's one and
three. Arches over
and starts to fail. I'm watching this
very closely. 914 is weak. The MACD is
weak. Stoic very weak at 27%. Onbalance
volume is weak. So,
sneeze coming. Sneeze gone.
We've got ourselves a little potential H
pattern in the weekly chart at a peak B,
but it's only a peak C in the monthly
chart. So, VANC semiconductor should
have a bit of a a breather. Uh Nvidia
has its earnings this week. I don't care
what it does. Uh this is a is weakness
and it's going to take a little while,
another maybe couple of weeks before we
really start getting back to the higher
level in the 650s, but I think we will
make an all-time high above 671.83.
uh at least coming up uh in the next um
couple of weeks. Okay, let's go to the
um next thing that I want to look at
here is gold. Gold is up uh 19 at 4717
longlegged dogee candle right there. Leg
D. Uh look look at this measured move
that I have from the four 4876 high that
was made uh that the high that was made
right here. That was uh on the 12th of
May. Uh we went all the way to this
double bottom of 3955 and 3963.
Arch formation goes to a lowercase M
shape and then it turns around and it
forms this beautiful cup formation. We
have been along from way back um in the
uh in the gold and silver positions. the
gold we've been along the PHYS from $20
back in November of 2024. Took lots of
profits, kept a core position, and look
at the the way it's held. PHYS. Look at
this. PHYS. Slightly different. Oh, did
I? Oh, I typed it in the wrong thing.
Let me just do this. Messed up. Doesn't
matter. I'll fix it up. P YS. Doing
seven things at once. Look at that. left
side right side target is the 7th of May
which is at 36
08 and we've already got to this peak D
because there's no new high so far today
and I suspect that we will get there
over the next couple of days however
what's really important is that the
Bitcoin when we got this buy signal just
about a week and a half ago because it
was breaking that resistance level when
you have a rectangle long rectangle that
is forming forming at the bottom of a
trading range. That's way important. If
it's at the top, that's usually a big
negative at the bottom. If it does break
out, it can break out very sharp. You're
only a leg see at 81,350
high today. Uh our Bitcoin has already
done very nicely. Um about 15% higher
from our entry point. But I think that
this is that rotation we've been talking
about that's going into other areas and
the semiconductors and some of the taxs
are very weak and that's what we're
looking at for the next couple of I even
say maybe 3 to 6 weeks. I'll be back in
a moment. Bowser trap is sitting for
Tommy and Brian. This is the Tom O'Brien
show. Dow's up 117. S&P is up 16. I'll
be right back.
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