August 24th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation [music] of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. >> Let's go to my man All in Homo Sasa. What's going on, brother? >> Isn't it wonderful? I went ahead and invested in your uh tiger dollars and I went ahead and got the gold report for a year and and also your morning your your call letter and stuff like that [music] and I got over 50% return in one day, not counting uh everything else, but I just want to thank you. Tom's not perfect, but he tells you how to put your stops in and keeps your losses small. You can take your small losses, but then all of a sudden you'll be like Dave Ruth and you'll hit a home run. I mean, a big home run. Yeah. >> And put the money in your pocket. >> Okay, brother. You're awesome, man. Thank you. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] >> Good Monday afternoon everybody. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN. Thanks for joining me for the final hour of the trading day. And we got a mixed market right now with tech stocks, memory stocks, Nvidia trading lower ahead of their earnings on Wednesday. And we got an S&P right now down by 16 points trading at 7674. That's a decline of about 210%. You see a little bit of a sell-off on the opening bell this morning. Tech stocks as I mentioned with the NA with Nvidia with memory stocks. The NASDAQ 100 off by about 810% right now up 233 points 29,150 for the Dow is a rotation out of memory out of Nvidia into some DAO equities and you take a look at the heat map right check out the consumer staples Costco up 2.2% Walmart 2.2% 2%. Okay, financials, Visa, Mastercard each up nearly 3%, JP Morgan up 1 and a4% and you got Google up a percent, Microsoft up 9/10, Apple up 710, and Amazon up 1.2%. But as I mentioned, it's the memory stocks. Micron, a trillion dollar company, down might I think they were down seven, 8% almost at the lows of the session, off 5.4% 4% and SanDisk a $219 billion company down 6% was down 10%. So those equities and then we jump over to Nvidia shares you got Nvidia now the report over the weekend they're hiking their prices okay by the tune of like 15%. Let's see if I can pull it up again. I was talking about it this morning and yeah, it's memory chips that they're going to pass on that cost to the big spenders. But nonetheless, down by 2.5% right now for Nvidia. We you jump over to rates. The 10ear up by six ticks right now. Rates in focus. All right, the Treasury in focus. And we got the 10ear at 4.7% right now. We jump over the dollar. We're back above 99 barely, but 9902 and even with a little dollar strength. Gold up by $15. We were as high as 4738 right now. You get the GDX slightly in the green to 103. We jump over to silver down by 1.4% to 6855. Platinum down by 4/10% 1888. And we jump over to copper right now positive by a penny. We hit about 664 this amount for co morning for copper and a VIX at 1580. We have an elevated VIX with a market and an S&P down by about 18 points. The VIX still sitting at a relatively affordable 1580. Talk about it. All right, we jump over to Nvidia. So Nvidia earnings Wednesday. We take a look at this thing. Okay, we were just trading at a high of 227 last week. 22792 to be exact. You have alltime highs of 236 out here. Yeah, we haven't had a real meaningful bid with any volume in some time here in Nvidia. I mean, nothing sticks out on this chart. The other side of that is we got a potential A to B, C to D that would bring Nvidia shares up to 290, folks. And that sounds crazy, but you hit 200, you back off, okay? Okay. And now we've just been building some strength here at that 200 high. That's been an area of support, right? You break above that area in April. Found myself looking at this potential trade this week. Now, really 200 would be the buy, right? That's where you've had support here. Okay? That's where you had a breakaway. But look at how you trade lower with 705 million end of July. You get that huge acceleration on less volume of 641. And then you top out on 500. And last week a little lighter volume on the trade lower. So if you could pull back into 200 this week on some light volume ahead of Wednesday earnings, we're down by about 550 right now. That would bring you right back to the October highs. Speaking of the October highs, take a look at gold. So gold, it's a nice setup, folks. Check out this is the gold contract. Okay. And look at the volume last week. 860,000 contracts, folks. That's the most since the lows of March on that gold contract and you jump over the equities GDX, right? Same thing. Okay. You actually did more volume than the initial thrust higher at the beginning of August last week. The initial August 3rd, 145 million, we'll call it, and you did 151 last week. In terms of the highs, you have 174 million at the highs. Going to be tough to get over that one with volume, but strong moving gold in the middle and the equities. That's how you like to see it, folks. Silver, pronounced volume as well, but silver's got a long way to go. I don't know if you're going to see silver immediately back at those highs. That was a little bit of an irrational high, folks. much more so than the runup gold had. But nonetheless, you got silver at 68 and you're probably making a run to, you know, 85 as in you were at 85. Let's see. You may reached a high of 8267 in December and we were up at that price level all the way through May. So that's a more realistic 82 $85 where you topped out before you had kind of that blowoff top to 121 in silver. All right, we check out some of the memory stocks. So Micron Yeah, you know, we had some nice quality volume all the way up to a,000, right? You got the sell in from 1255, but we haven't had one of those huge signs of strength on buying since then. But you did have some nice volume all the way to a,000. Traded off a bit since then. Jump over to SanDisk. Yeah, look at how the volume dropped off in SanDisk on that run higher. The last real sign of strength here May 4th and you trade all the way to the bottom of that bar and then some. The low was 12:05 back then. We hit a,000. Situational awareness gets lic liquidated. Yeah, we get some volume at these lows. Sandis down 6.4. We take a look at it on daily. Well, that's a nice sign of strength. I'm coming in to test that sign of strength. We got a low out there at 1331. And that's the daily from August 13th. Got Amazon up by 1.3%. SpaceX shares under pressure again almost right at that IPO price of 135. Down by a buck 72. And Tesla 3.7%. Look at that one. On the flip side, how about Disney catching a run? Look at this run on Disney, man. their recent earnings in August. You push higher by 2.2% right now. It's been an underperformer for some time, but this looks like you're making a run now. 120 120 is the area. And it's done this before many times over the last few years and then some, right? Look at this on Disney. But boy, folks, you start breaking above 120, 150 and 200 is out there for Disney. And look at this monthly we got going on on Disney. See if we get the volume. S&P is off by 15. We'll come back with Steve Rhodess, folks, author of Mastering Probability, talking some equities. We'll be right back. If [music] you spend any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories of these [music] so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without [music] actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. 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TFN airs live financial content streamed live on tfn.com and tfn's YouTube channel [music] with Tiger TV live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. [music] Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on [music] the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different [music] shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's [music] YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. [music] Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P negative by 16 right now. NASDAQ tech stocks under pressure. And right now, folks, to talk about this market action, we're going to jump over to our man Steve Rhodess. Remember folks, you can check out Steve's outstanding program, The Trader Edge, 11:00 a.m. live every day right here on Tiger TV. And if you head on over to the front page of TFN, right under the newsletter tab, you'll see Mastering Probability, Steve's daily trading newsletter. Folks, you get updates in the morning, an update in the afternoon, you got weekends as well. It's $149 a month. It comes with a 30-day money back guarantee. And this is a great time to try a lot of newsletters, folks, because we have quite a market right now going. Steve Rhodess, good afternoon. >> Hi, Tommy. How are you today? >> I'm doing great, man. How's your Monday going? >> It's going good. Can you believe it's August 23rd, 24th? >> It's amazing, man. You know, Tommy started kindergarten uh almost two weeks ago now, Steve. So, that was like where I was like, whoa, what is going on, man? This is And now, right? And now we're I know time is flying, man. For sure. Hey, >> totally. Totally. And what we're we're we're flying into the month of September. And that's why I brought that up because I have shown you I've Yeah, I've shown this chart before. Uh this is a chart provided to us by the folks at SeaX. They're really great company at being able to put together the seasonal data in just one click to be able to pull up these charts and really, really cool tools. So, this happens to be the 98-year uh seasonal cycle for the S&P 500. The red uh vertical line is where we're at today. So you can see that historically we're approaching the time period which is the first week in September when we typically see some type of high in the market that might move lower into October. The very bottom right hand portion of the screen Tommy shows month by month over 98 years and what their average performance has been. So we can see just how tough the uh month of September is. We can also see that Mondays are typically downer Mondays, right? You know, you take Monday off if you if you will. So, >> it's like we come back the summer, which is a big weekend, you know, same deal or the weekend. Yeah. Now, go ahead. Yeah. It's pretty cool. >> No, no, no. So, so I wanted to be able to So, we've shown this chart here and so I started thinking about it. I I just never want to mislead anyone. So, I decided to look under the covers. When I looked under the covers, I was able to My data goes back to 1970. So, we've got 56 years worth of data. And when I take a look at just simply the month of September, the results, um, what percentage of September do we close above the open of September? And what percentage of September do we close below the open of September? Because what, Tommy, when I look at this chart here, would you have expected that these would be the results of coin toss, >> right? >> I I I would not have I did not expect that. >> So now maybe that that could just be me. But when I when I when I ran the data and I said, "Wait, this is not substantially different than a coin toss, it lessened it lessened it lessened in essence the message of the the uh seasonal chart. Do you know what I mean?" >> I definitely do. That's basically, you know, there's variance, right? There's there's all stuff that goes in as in that that could just be outside of the normal variance that you're getting of a coin flip in terms of your sample size. Definitely. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. So I so I started with this and I said okay let's let's try digging a little bit further and if we look at each month separately during the last 56 years when the market once the market gets past September so take a look at the bottom here once we get past September this this is how the each month has performed so since I knew how September was performing I said let me go see how each of the other months are performing and what was really now we've always talked about the Santa Claus or I've talked about Santa Claus rally really starting in October and moving through the end of the year but when we take a look at Statistically, look at once we get past September, the chances of the October closing higher are 60%. 67% in November, 73% in December. That's that's pretty wild, right? That >> Santa Claus is real, Steve. He is real, man. It's happening. No, those are some numbers coming in just and look, we we have we have 57 years worth of data coming through um July because we're in the month of August. So, that's so folks are looking at the chart and people should take a copy. This is really important or this is I think this is very helpful data. It really opened my eyes. If we take a look at the S&P 500 after a positive September. So after a positive September, look at these percentages here. It's amazing. It's I I think it's great. Now, what happens if the S&P has a negative September? There's been 26 times where we've had a negative September, 30 times we've had a positive. That's basically our coin toss there. But even if we have a negative September, we typically have a fairly positive November, December. I'd say October, Tommy, is pretty much kind of another one of those coin tosses. You know, it's a little bit better than a coin toss. But really, the month of November and December, I think this is very helpful to all of our listener to our listener base out there. >> It It's pretty cool how it shows too in terms of there's quite a market bias to the upside, which makes sense overall too, you know, in terms of the market, man. these these are we and and right now we got some strong equities the valuations but you know the market just boy you know um when you look at those numbers over a longterm period there's a lot of value creation for sure when you look we we had talked last week about uh uh I had done the study on the equal weighted uh ETF the QEW conversation I have with the equal weighted and the and the NASDAQ 100 making all-time highs when the equal weight was leading I like that one please go ahead >> yeah so it just kind of feeds into to to a lot of this up. I went to a couple of steps further. I took a look at the S&P 500. So, I wanted to really understand September a little bit further. And so, this was one way for me to take a look at it just simply from a price standpoint because this something each of us can do uh here. And this is all based upon the S&P price right now. So, I don't know what it's going to be us uh next Tuesday. Uh but but you can, you know, you can change this. So if we take a look at September just starting off at the open the lefth hand column here is take a look at when we have Septembers that have a halfyear a half a percent uh uh increase or 38 point move during you know by the end of September. Okay so this is this is this is by the end of September here versus 1% would be 77 point move or approximately 1 and a half% about 115 point move. What's interesting here is when we take a look at a September that only gets maybe maybe one and a half%. All right. That the um the probability of of of moving higher isn't too bad, but look at how look at how much stronger it gets, Tommy. We start getting to a two or two and 1/2 or three or three and a half%. So my point is that the early percentage is 1 one and a half%. A little bit better than coin toss. But what the real meaning of this and so we got to track September almost kind of like day by day. Where are we? Are we above the open? What percentage are we above the open? cuz we start breaching into the 2 and a half and 3% which in today's trading is almost one day average range it seems like >> it really that's what I've been thinking about for like the last three minutes when you're talking and these numbers we're doing every day or two man I mean we got SanDisk and Micron putting numbers up that are amaz Yeah it's pretty staggering yeah >> yeah so I I what I really think and and I don't know the answer to it none of us do because we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow and the next day the next day but we can start taking a look at each day in September and kind of keep a a uh um you know a a a a running total. Where are we at? Are we up or are we down? Right? Because the the more we start moving towards a 3 three and a half% number, boy. Then then we start talking about where Septeers are not negative. They're substantially positive out there. And that's the help that that that's that's that was the importance for me about digging under the covers and really trying to understand what September what that uh what the what the annual seasonal chart was really showing us. If I take a look at September's performance and I take a look at the January framework, this is where we're at right now, Tommy, and I'll just cut right to the chase. We're in this column here where the January low failed. What I mean is that we closed below a January low and then we reclaim that low and we are well above the January highs. This is the situation where we're in right now. And in this situation, the chances of of September finishing higher, we're 77.8%. >> Pretty wild. All right. We'll see. We'll see how it turns out. But let's keep track day by day. You know, how how is September performing? >> I was going to say [clears throat] we're going to get some appetizers with Nvidia setting the stage on Wednesday, right? And we'll see where we kick off September following those numbers. Steve, appreciate the breakdown, folks. You want to see breakdowns like that every single day in Mastering Probability. Check it out right on the front page under the newsletter tab. As I said, couple updates a day over the weekend. Great service. You get some great webinars in there as well. Steve, great stuff, man. Look forward to the program tomorrow at 11. Thanks so much. >> Thanks, Tommy. You bet. Take care. >> Have a great one, folks. We come right back. [music] >> [music] >> Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works [music] for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market [music] looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer [music] than most trading influencers have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology [music] in order to accurately call movements in a wide range of equities from semiconductors to uranium [music] to key indices and so much more. Basil is old school, taking the time to educate the trader while also giving his insights into [music] key indices, selective stocks, and more. Opening call subscribers also receive access to [music] dozens of educational live streams that can be accessed at any time for your edification. All firsttime subscribers receive a 30-day money back guarantee. So ignore the pop trading influencers and start learning time- tested technical analysis. Steve RH started his trading career as a student almost [music] 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 [music] and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year. An [music] amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodess is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge [music] with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering [music] Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading [music] day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars, [music] absolutely free, at TFN. All our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you [music] have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit tfnn.com and try [music] Mastering Probability, 30 days, risk-free today. TFN, educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's [music] YouTube channel with Tiger TV. live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for [music] free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market [music] opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert [music] hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's [music] YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. >> This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions, daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors Inc. Welcome back, folks. NASDAQ right now off 7/10% and you talk about some stories. So, first you kick it off with the economic showdown with Iran. So, you have the Treasury Secretary out here and he's got he's got he's got a lot of different moving parts. The Treasury Secretary in terms of the buybacks going on and then outlining the economic punishment against any country doing business with Iran and China is not exempt here. All right. as what a part of what he called an economic D-Day to isolate the country and end that nearly six-month war. We're launching an economic onslaught against Iran's financial connections around the globe. Economic asphixi esphyxiation of this regime. Well, I'm always hopeful, but so far this appears to be just the threat of additional secondary sanctions under authorities the Treasury has had since 2020. That's a former Treasury official. His threats also push risk putting the US on a collision course with China. Yeah. Which buys a bulk of that Iranian oil and has so far refused to stop. We're giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Think we're going to bring China into this. See how that goes. The key test will be whether the US follows through on threats to sanction countries that don't sever links to Iran and targets large Chinese financial and energy institutions. Yeah, we'll see if they do that. No one's above the reach of US sanctions. He did not mention China, but that was the insinuation. All right, talking about the Nvidia price hikes. So, Nvidia customers notified about AI related price hikes above 15%. Now, you got Nvidia selling off this morning. You got the memory stock selling off this morning. Nvidia's biggest customers have been told that the prices of servers containing its AI chips are going up 15%. But here's the kicker. These servers have memory chips in them. Okay. Companies who build the servers are under contract for large data center operations such as Microsoft, Google, Oracle have recently notified their customers of the forthcoming increases. So they're passing it down the chain one and one. The price hikes are going to going to go into the system shipped early next year. They're going to have the Ver Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips. And yeah, companies who build the servers under contract for large data centers have recently notified their customers of those increases. So Nvidia's processors effectiveness depends on how much DRAM they are paired with. You got Samsung, SKH Highex, and Micron account for most of the world's production of that type of chip. How Nvidia's customers react to this latest move and whether it will create an opening for its competitors will likely depend on whether they're able to secure enough memory themselves. They all need the memory and yeah so now it's going to go up by 15%. those AI data center buildouts prices going up folks more debt more equity issu issuings so that was the story right and then you got that drop the moment the markets opened Nvidia down nearly six bucks right now down 2.7% approaching the session lows bounces well off the lows but down nearly 7% right now and Micron down 5.7% %. Yeah. Seagate off by 6.2. And boy, so you talk about it, man. You know, $4 billion, folks. Don't pay attention to the number last week when they announced that they're going to have buybacks of longerdated notes and bonds because guess what? Treasury Secretary could tap near $1 trillion general slush fund. Slush fund. It's their cash file. Okay. Yeah. To fund purchases of government bonds. They've got, and I say they as in this administration, this Treasury Secretary, if he's still in there, years to make their impact here. And now they have potentially a trillion dollars that could come in. And yeah, they doubled the size of their bond buybacks last week, but it was four billion dollars, but that was the writing on the wall. They went from two billion to four billion. But guess what? Okay, they're not going to come out and go, we're going from 2 billion to 200 billion, right? But what if the number is 200 billion that they're going to throw this year? We'll find out, man. And this is using the general account, the Treasury general account, and they have about a trillion dollars in there. It's at about 950 billion currently, compared with the stated goal under the Biden administration of only 600 billion. Well, what are you doing with that extra 350 billion? Let's buy some longdated bonds, man, and push that yield down with our dollars. I sound like that to make the point, folks. Pretty remarkable, right? The size of that is completely discretionary. The goal was to set the TGA at a week ahead of cash needs. Not surprising to see this folks after last week. That was a heads up and this could last years. And you know what? That is a way. Okay. And the part that makes it more realistic to me is that you look at the long-term action of the dollar. Okay. I think 90 is the next stop. And maybe this is going to be the impetus that drives it down. There's a lot of things at play right now. We got a currency war, uh, excuse me, a trade war going on with Canada, right? The the yen has got their own deal going on. Take a look at the yen. slightly higher today, slightly weaker number as you got a little dollar strength. Yen back to 15918 right now. But why would you not if you're in this difficult situation which we are in? Okay. Now, the real worry here is that you take advantage of a dollar that's near 100 and you use those dollars to buy our debt back. suppress the yield at the expense of a dollar weakening and you think you have some room down to 90 or 80 but what if you start accelerating below that right and that is the fear that you push down your own currency and weakness but I think that's what they got going on and realistically man outside of co when the dollar was much stronger right we hit a high of 115 for most of the last 24 years, folks. 23 years, the dollar has been weaker than it's at right now. So, if that's going to alleviate some of our long-term pressure on yields that are out of whack right now with our level of debt, then yeah, maybe we're going to have to sacrifice some dollar strength in the interest of easing yields. And guess what? It's going to make our exports more attractive as well. But don't get caught holding no assets as the dollar. If you're looking for potential value stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse ETFs [music] provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. For up-to-date pricing and performance, go to direction.com. 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TFN [music] newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. [music] Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. >> [music] >> Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. TFN has launched the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years [music] with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tigers Dan available to all Tigers and Tigrises for just $1 [music] for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. [music] Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm Orion. [music] Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps off 21 points right now. And we jump around and how about to Broadcom? We got Broadcom right now down 2.4%. And Broadcom, we're talking about $2 trillion. Where are we at right now? We're all the way down to 1.7. We were a $2 trillion company. Yeah, I guess from $495 to 359 right now. your monthly. Put it back on a weekly. Look at this, man. Back to where we were trading almost a year ago. Just that quick. Broadcom trading down $8.91. And yeah, how about the credit risk of Broadcom soarses on mega AI debt financing back stops. And that's what the there's a real tail risk going on here. Okay. Okay. But Broadcoms 5.15% bonds that mature in 2031 up 14 basis points already in August. Yeah. The price of its 5-year credit default swaps climbing 28 basis points. Just pointing to the recent shift of the risk in some of the debt even on an equity like Broadcom that's a $1.7 trillion equity. Whoa. Right. in talks to raise more than 60 billion in debt from an AI chip financing deal that's expected to benefit Anthropic and other companies. Now, check this out. Now, the top of this is Oracle. They're the riskiest out here. Then you got SpaceX. Pretty remarkable, right? Oracle's more risky than SpaceX right now. And then you got Broadcom in the pink. And the point of this is that look at how Broadcom, right? really from about May of this year has dramatically accelerated above most other even talking about Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, right? They've all went up and been a little bit riskier. Meta is in the yellow here. Okay, AMD is in the green. The safest bets out there, Microsoft, that's the lowest premium. All right, this is a great chart to see if you want to see where your risk is, right? Oracle, SpaceX, Broadcom. Okay, then you got Meta, AMD, and then the safest of them all, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. But boy, quite a steep incline for Broadcom as they ratchet up the deals. And what does happen here, okay, is that these backs stops going on, they're only ever going to need to backs stop any of this financing, right, like Nvidia is, like Broadcom is, if the people that are leasing those back out, and it would just be a slowdown. So, their economic backs stop only comes due if the people buying all their stuff stop buying all their stuff. It's like the worst time you'd ever want to be using the equity side of your portfolio to backs stop a financing deal is when your business is dramatically slowing down. It's going to have like a leveraged exacerbated tail risk. Unfortunately, if that were to happen, not exactly planning for a rainy day. That's what Not exactly planning for a rainy day. And yeah, speaking of debt, Guggenheim loan drops to a new 73 cent low. How about that for a wipeout recently? It's not a wipeout, but yeah, the asset management firm ARM of Mark Walters Guggenheim Partners revenue fell 38% year-over-year in the second quarter. I mean, we'll see how the details shake out, folks, but these don't seem like innocent mistakes that could be made for a multi-billionaire insurance gentleman like himself. The first lean loan had briefly recovered after the firm clarified that the drop was largely attributable to a delay in reporting some advisory fees. The firm has engaged with our auditors and we feel that the accounting treatment was appropriate at the subsidiary known as GPI. We'll see. We'll see as he sells off the Laklers to to Kushner and Iger. We'll see. But that one's not going to stop being in the press. And boy, this is a finance show, folks. But my goodness, this uh you're going to be hearing about this one. And what is this guy doing, man? Jed York, the 49ers owner. They got his mug shot in here. This gentleman, no, they don't have his mug shot in here. They must be They must be happy that this guy paying seems like 140 bucks in a trailer park for prostitution and he's a billionaire 49ers owner. Man, what is going on with this gentleman? But you'll be hearing about that one unfortunately. And you know, keep his family in your thoughts because that's just unfortunate as I bring it up on the show, right? But man, what are you doing? You're a billionaire owner of an NFL team. All right, I digress. Right, let's take a look at gold. catching another bid above 4700. And you know, there's so much to be said, folks. It's a textbook breakout here, okay? You got volume. You got volume in the metals. You got volume in the equities. And you got a lot of equities making a run for highs, folks. Let's jump around to some equities. I mean, look at some of these equities, right? Look at Eagle just plows higher on 21 million shares. The most volume we've had since the March lows. Yeah. N AG, is it them? No, they had a decent pop. AGI was a big run. That was a good move. AU. Yeah, that was the one. AU. Look at that pop last week, man. Making a run for the highs. Already almost there. This thing just trades from 78 up to 120 in 3 weeks. Harmony's on quite a tear. You're backing off by 2.7% today. We have some of these equities in the gold report, folks. Look at all the volume in the daily on Harmony. It was quite a week, too. Look at this weekly. All right. Now, Harmony's into the highs earlier this year already. And I say into the highs, you're into that bar. Look at the volume we did. So, you know, don't be worried if you get a little bit of a breather here, folks. As in the GDX just traded up almost 50% in the span of about a month. 50% the equities. At the same time, you got the gold contract trading from about 4,000, right? Lows out there 3963 to 4,700. We have 18% or so, right? So, the equities lead the way. You got the equities up almost 50%. GDX had a 69 handle. We're excuse me, 103 right now. Okay. Yeah. 10338. And you're doing it with volume, which is the most important element of it. You break away. You do it with volume. Last week, 151 million. you take out 145 and if they're really going to spend that kind of general fund and I say if there limited choices folks okay limited choices and you know you look at the home builders today we spike we give it back right last week on the initial thrust that was Wednesday when we first found out this story that the Treasury was going to increase their buyback backs. Okay, keep your eye on these home builders cuz they might be the next play. In the same way we're getting a nice breakout on gold, I think these ones I think I think this might be time cuz not only is the dollar going to be weakened here, but it's going to be weakened. Look at Lar up 1.7%. Okay, you got builder up 1% right now, Dr. Horton up half a percent. And KBH up 7/10%. Come right back, folks. One more segment. 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Try any of [music] our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. [music] Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfn.com. TFN, [music] educating investors. Don't forget you can listen to TFN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger TV. That's tfn.com then hit watch tiger TV. [music] Welcome back folks. So yet, you know, as I rounded out that segment there, but you know, you got home builders up today and yields haven't eased that much at all. Okay, we got the 10 here right now 4.7, but this is a fact that you got that Treasury story out there. Okay, and yes, we've eased marginally. You got the 10 year up by six ticks right now. Okay, you jump to the 30-year, we're up by 20 ticks right now in the 30-year. Looking at the yield curve right now. Pull it over. There's your 10 year at 47, your 30 year at 523. We're lower right now on the longer part of the curve and that's where they're going to be. So that's the market reacting to it, right? And if this is the beginning of a real effort from the Treasury and you know this administration wants rates lower, okay, it seems like the Treasury is on board in terms of with the president. They want them lower. This is a mechanism that he can do it. He's got a trillion dollars. The president's talked about he wants a weak dollar as well. You accomplish the same thing there. You keep our yields lower, which is necessary when we're passing big, beautiful bills with beautiful tax cuts that aren't paid for, that are adding trillions to the national debt. Okay? And that's not fiscal responsibility. And so, one way you do that is you pay down those dollars in the future with a weaker dollar. Now, that's not a problem if you own assets. It's not a problem if you own assets, folks. Okay? Because that's how it works. And and that's what's at play right now. And that's why you're seeing gold accelerate. That's why you're seeing Bitcoin accelerate. That's why you're seeing the homebuilders positive on a day like today. And so, make sure I think we're at the beginning right now. And you're going to have movements. Okay? You got the equities up almost 50% in 3 weeks. This isn't going to be a market where you don't get pullbacks. We're going to have some volatility here, but I think we got a nice setup for a beginning here. And if that dollar is really on its way to 90 and lower, watch out gold. Folks, thanks for tuning in. Have a great night. Safe night. Enjoy your time, folks. Spend it wisely. Spend it. Enjoy it. Thanks for being here. We'll see you tomorrow, folks. Have a great night. Don't.