Video summary
The market opened with a mixed sentiment as investors reacted to recent developments in the technology sector, particularly ahead of Nvidia's earnings report scheduled for Wednesday. While tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple showed resilience or slight gains, memory stocks faced significant pressure, with Micron dropping nearly 8% and SanDisk falling by over 6%. This sell-off extended to Nvidia shares, which declined by 2.5% despite the company's recent price hike on memory chips, as traders adjusted positions following a morning rotation out of high-flying tech names into Dow equities like Costco, Walmart, and major financial institutions such as Visa and Mastercard.
Commodities and broader market indicators presented a complex picture with elevated volatility. The VIX index remained at 15.80, reflecting investor caution even though the S&P 500 only dipped slightly from its recent highs. Gold performed well, climbing by $15 to reach levels near $4,738, supported by substantial trading volume that was the highest since March lows. In contrast, silver struggled to regain its previous irrational highs, trading lower despite showing some strength, while platinum and copper also experienced minor declines or stagnation. The dollar index hovered just above 99, indicating a fragile balance between currency strength and market uncertainty.
Looking ahead, technical analysis suggests potential opportunities in specific sectors if key support levels hold. For Nvidia, the $200 level is identified as a critical area of support where buyers have historically stepped in; a successful rebound from this zone could propel shares back to October highs before the upcoming earnings event. Similarly, gold and the semiconductor sector ETF (GDX) are showing strong momentum with significant volume, suggesting that sustained buying interest could push these assets toward new peaks. Conversely, Disney is noted for breaking above its $120 resistance level, hinting at a potential long-term run toward higher targets like $150 or even $200, while companies like Tesla and SpaceX continue to face downward pressure following their respective recent performances.
Read the full video transcript
Good Monday afternoon everybody. Tommy
O'Brien coming to you live from TFN.
Thanks for joining me for the final hour
of the trading day. And we got a mixed
market right now with tech stocks,
memory stocks, Nvidia trading lower
ahead of their earnings on Wednesday and
we got an S&P right now down by 16
points trading at 7674. That's a decline
of about 210%. You see a little bit of a
sell-off on the opening bell this
morning. tech stocks as I mentioned with
the NA with Nvidia
with memory stocks NASDAQ 100 off by
about 8/10% right now off 233 points
29,150 for the Dow is a rotation out of
memory out of Nvidia into some Dow
equities and you take a look at the heat
map right check out the consumer staples
Costco up 2.2% Walmart 2.2% 2%. Okay,
financials, Visa, Mastercard each up
nearly 3%, JP Morgan up 1 and a4% and
you got Google up a percent, Microsoft
up 9/10, Apple up 710, and Amazon up
1.2%.
But as I mentioned, it's the memory
stocks. Micron, a trillion dollar
company, down might I think they were
down seven 8% almost at the lows of the
session, off 5.4% 4% and SanDisk a $219
billion company down 6% was down 10%. So
those equities and then we jump over to
Nvidia shares. You got Nvidia
now the report over the weekend they're
hiking their prices okay by the tune of
like 15%.
Let me see if I can pull it up again. I
was talking about it this morning
and yeah,
it's memory chips that they're going to
pass on that cost to the big spenders.
But nonetheless, down by 2.5% right now
for Nvidia. We you jump over to rates.
The 10ear up by six ticks right now.
Rates in focus. All right, the Treasury
in focus and we got the 10ear at 4.7%
right now. We jump over the dollar.
We're back above 99 barely, but 9902 and
even with a little dollar strength. Gold
up by $15. We were as high as 4738 right
now. You get the GDX slightly in the
green to 103. We jump over to silver
down by 1.4% to 6855 platinum down by
4/10% 18.88 and we jump over to copper
right now positive by a penny. We hit
about 664 this amount for co morning for
copper and a VIX at 1580. We have an
elevated VIX
with a market and an S&P down by about
18 points. The VIX still sitting at a
relatively affordable 1580. Talk about
it. All right, we jump over to Nvidia.
So Nvidia earnings Wednesday.
We take a look at this thing. Okay, we
were just trading at a high of 227 last
week. 22792 to be exact. You have
alltime highs of 236 out here.
Yeah, we haven't had a real meaningful
bid with any volume in some time here in
Nvidia.
I mean, nothing sticks out on this
chart. The other side of that is we got
a potential A to B, C to D that would
bring Nvidia shares up to 290, folks.
And that sounds crazy, but you hit 200,
you back off, okay? Okay. And now we've
just been building some strength here at
that 200 high. That's been an area of
support, right? You break above that
area in April. Found myself looking at
this per potential trade this week. Now,
really 200 would be the buy, right?
That's where you've had support here.
Okay? That's where you had a breakaway.
But look at how you trade lower with 705
million end of July. You get that huge
acceleration on less volume of 641.
And then you top out on 500. And last
week though, lighter volume on the trade
lower. So if you could pull back into
200 this week on some light volume ahead
of Wednesday earnings, we're down by
about 550 right now. That would bring
you right back to the October highs.
Speaking of the October highs, take a
look at gold.
So gold, it's a nice setup, folks. Check
out this is the gold contract. Okay? And
look at the volume last week. 860,000
contracts, folks. That's the most since
the lows of March on that gold contract
and you jump over the equities GDX,
right? Same thing. Okay. You actually
did more volume than the initial thrust
higher at the beginning of August last
week. The initial August 3rd, 145
million, we'll call it, and you did 151
last week.
In terms of the highs, you have 174
million at the highs. Going to be tough
to get over that one with volume, but
strong moving gold in the middle and the
equities. That's how you like to see it,
folks.
Silver
pronounced volume as well, but silver's
got a long way to go. I don't know if
you're going to see silver immediately
back at those highs. That was a little
bit of an irrational high, folks. much
more so than the runup gold had. But
nonetheless, you got silver at 68 and
you're probably making a run to, you
know, 85 as in you were at 85. See, you
may reached a high 8267 in December and
we were up at that price level all the
way through May. So that's a more
realistic 82 $85 where you topped out
before you had kind of that blowoff top
to 121 in silver. All right, we check
out some of the memory stocks. So Micron
Yeah,
you know, we had some nice quality
volume all the way up to a,000, right?
You got the sell in from 1255, but we
haven't had one of those huge signs of
strength on buying since then, but you
did have some nice volume all the way to
a,000. Traailed off a bit since then.
Jump over to SanDisk.
Yeah, look at how the volume dropped off
in Sandis on that run higher. [snorts]
The last real sign of strength here May
4th and you trade all the way to the
bottom of that bar and then some. The
low was 12:05 back then. We hit a
th00and
situational awareness gets lic
liquidated.
Yeah, we get some volume with these
lows.
Sandis down 6.4. We take a look at it on
daily.
Well, that's a nice sign of strength.
I'm coming in to test that sign of
strength. We got a low out there at
1331. And that's the daily from August
13th.
Got Amazon up by 1.3%. SpaceX shares
under pressure again. Almost right at
that IPO price of 135, down by a buck
72.
And Tesla off 3.7%. Look at that one. On
the flip side, how about Disney catching
a run? Look at this run on Disney, man.
Their recent earnings in August. you
push higher by 2.2% right now.
It's been an underperformer for some
time, but this looks like you're making
a run now. 120 120 is the area. And it's
done this before many times over the
last few years and then some, right?
Look at this on Disney. But boy, folks,
you start breaking above 120.
150 and 200 is out there for Disney. And
look at this monthly we got going on on
Disney.
See if we get the volume. S&P is off by
15. We come back with Steve Rhodess,
folks. Author of Mastering Probability,
talking some equities.