August 20th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps off by 57. Taking a quick look at the heat map and yeah, we got a lot of red out there. A few pockets of green. Micron in there. You got some of the Visa, Mastercard, but pretty the memory stocks yet again a little bit higher, but Walmart, Consumer Staples, Costco off by 3% as well. Right now, folks, as we do each and every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time, we're going to talk to Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. You can check Tim out at his website, folks. orphanoracle.com. You see it right there. And right at TFN, folks, if you head over to the services tab, he's got two great webinars. The secret science of market tops and how to identify those market tops, as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. And folks, we talk about these ratios all the time. Tim Hord, we've had some action the last couple days in this market since we last spoke. Good afternoon. Yeah, good good afternoon. Um, we're going to skip around a little bit. We're going to just cover the S&Ps kind of quick and the gold. We're going to look at the gold market here. >> The actions. That's what I was talking. That was what I was referring to, right, man? That gold market. But please, let's start with the S&P. Go for it, please. >> All right. It's Anyhow, this is I did this earlier today. The trend came in at 5.6. It's still around 16 right now, but still around still below 17. So, it's not showing any bearish signs, at least not yet. And if you notice over the last uh several months, you know, as the SPs went up, uh so did the um spy VIX ratio. So it's not showing a bearish divergence yet. Um so this be a bearish divergence would be if the S&P is making higher highs and the the S&P fix ratio making lower highs. So far that's not happening. Um here's kind of a shortcut. There's a gap right here, which this is uh uh August uh 4th, so I don't know, a couple of weeks ago, whatever. And we had 69 million shares there. And we're running around 40 million shares, maybe a little less right now. We'll probably hit close to 40 million shares uh today or thereabouts, but probably not 70 close to 70 million. So, you know, if you test the gap on 10% ladder volume, that gap's going to hold. And right below that gap is the previous highs of June and July. And all that comes in around 755 to 760 on the SPY. And to get through uh there's another thing here. You had a science strength right through that those previous highs. That's the reason I put this green. So you had a a a sign strength through the previous highs. If you go back down to test previous highs, it should be in a lighter volume. And that lighter volume is going to be uh probably around 40 million shares. When you broke through those highs, you had around 70 million shares give or take. So most likely uh this previous lows. We're almost touching it right now, but you know, maybe tomorrow. >> Um so that's the kind of the downside. So I don't think we're busting down here at all. My opinion, the next rally is going to tell the whole story. Uh if we have to we have to see another sign of strength off this low. If we don't get then uh something else could be happening. >> Okay. >> Um any that's that. So we got let's get to u the gold market here. Um >> all right. >> Uh we we'll start with we'll start with this one. This is momentum chart of u I showed this last time 6 day average of the up down volume. Uh 50-day average of the up down volume and u 79 day average up down volume. All three of those turned up and normally when they turn up especially when they get above zero uh that's says the next impulse wave has started. So according to this chart and this chart goes back to you know late or mid 2017 and it works pretty well. >> Uh so we got another we got an uptrend. Obviously if anybody's watching GDX the volumes is really coming in here. But we do have a sign of strength off this low off the last low of July that you have to have that sign of strength. If the market just pops up on average or below average volume is going to come back down again. We don't have that here. So we definitely got impulse wave going. But look, we're going to look at some bigger uh things going on here. We actually talked about this I don't know several months ago and or even a couple of weeks ago. And I think this is a this is put it this way a 12 day 12-ear cycle seemed to work pretty well for this chart. And now the middle chart is the XAU the NDX. So it's a gold stocks against the uh NASDAQ stocks. And what's what's important about this is this this big this big RSI jump right there. The same thing we had back in 2002 thereabouts is initiation of an uptrend. And you have to have that initiation or that sign of strength off the first low. If you don't have it, then it's meaningless. You have to have that RSI get way above 70 or thereabouts. And that's in the books. That's initiation uptrend. In other words, things have changed from what was happening the previous 12 years. This is a new 12-ear cycle started in 2024 and he got initiation of an uptrend. In general, this RSI of this ratio should stay between 50 to 70 for the next uh 10 years. Same thing happened back in in here. So, what that says is gold stocks in general are going to outperform the NASDAQ stocks or QQQ for the next 10 years if this 12 12 year cycle works out. So, we'll go back up again, which we're in the process going up now. We'll probably find some resist resistance around 70. We may fall back down, but in general, we're going to this RSI is going to stay above 50. So, gold stocks are still in the early stages of a major bull market in my opinion, and this chart helps support that. Obviously, we'll have to see what this chart does. But say next year, for some reason, this chart falls, you know, down to close to 30 or or even 40 would put doubt in my mind that this thing's working out. It has to stay around 50. I mean, we probably will hit 48, but if it gets down below 40, I'm thinking, well, all bets are off. Uh, so, but we can't quite see it right now, but the RSI has turned back up. Uh, it's 57 right now. uh but it did hit around 50 49 has turned back up exactly where it's supposed to do and this rally I think is the early stages of beginning here's another uh chart this is the XU to uh the S&P so that's uh equity market against the SP market anyhow I drew a trend line connecting the last two highs back in 2015 and it looks like about 2020 both those years are kind of fiveyear cycles and you had to find uh support at those previous two highs and more or less you did. And now it's turned back up again. We're probably going to go straight up to uh uh uh this is kind of a 0.15. We're at um 0.53. So 0.1 that's about 300% up from here. What that says is if we go to that resistance, which I think we will, that means uh gold stocks are going to perform the SP stocks by 300%. Now, it doesn't say S&P is going to go down. It says says it does says that the gold stocks will outperform the S&P. So, okay, I hear the music. Pretty cool. And uh I don't know if you heard me any earlier in the show. I mean, I think this dollar might be in trouble, man. And that's it would line up with what you're saying if that's the case. And you know, I was looking at when you were saying the 12 year, right? Check it out. So, the dollar almost did some 12-year action. As in 2002, you're at 121. 2014, you're at 80. And then 2026, you're at 110. Maybe that's going to help me. We'll see. We're coming back with Tim, folks, talking more medals. We'll come right back. [music] >> Welcome back, folks. I was rushing that a little bit at the end, Tim, but it was pretty cool. I said, you know, it's saying, hey, I don't doesn't mean it's a cycle, but it is pretty cool that when you look at the dollar, man, you did go from 121 and then it took it almost until like 2014 where you caught a bid and then the bids every time you got a decline, you got another rally and then the first time we've had some declines. We'll see if they continue. But, um, hey, for what it's worth, man. And and the move on the dollar is is pretty stark as you see. And I don't think that's going to change, Tim. I've been harping on it all show. But, you know, we got some issues with debt, man. And they're making some difficult decisions. And the dollar is still near 100. So we're we're doing just fine, man. That's that's that's pretty pretty lofty levels for the dollar. And it's got a lot of room if you get a pullback to give gold kind of, you know, some some gasoline to the upside. And I'm adding some my own take, but pretty cool. >> Yeah. >> All right. Go for it, please. >> All right. So here here's the chart that uh what I've kind of been talking about this chart. The last high right there uh actually the bottom window is the um I think it's a monthly chart. Yeah, it's a monthly chart. This is the monthly GDXGLD ratio. When this ratio is rising in GDX, gold or gold stocks are outperforming gold. And that's what happens bull markets. In bare markets, gold outperforms gold stocks. In bull markets, gold stocks outperform gold. So, you want this ratio rising. You know, if you go back here at the last high of 2011, you notice the ratio just went straight down. It went down all the way until 2016. Then kind of getting out of those equities. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So, yeah. It's just just a big bare market and it kind of went sideways for all 13 years went sideways. Now, look what's happening now. Uh 0.24 if you is that last high. I went back and checked it. Today, we're 0.24. So, in other words, we're we're we're actually testing the previous high. If you notice on GDX here, the previous high is around 117 when I did this chart. Call it 100. Uh so we're we're down about 17% of the previous highs. And this ratio is equal to the previous highs. So again, the ratio rises when uh gold stocks are outperforming gold. And that's probably what's going to happen here. This this ratio is actually starting to break out. If you notice over um I don't know the last two years uh all of 2000 or half of 2025 and half well it's actually been a year uh uh this ratio more or less went sideways approximately around that 0.2 range and now we're hitting point we actually did hit a little bit above.24 24 today, but we're around 04 still. And so what that says is at a minimum, since we're testing previous high, that says at a minimum we'll get back to the previous high of this high. Well, if we start breaking above this high, which we're almost ready to do right now, that says this this is going to keep going. So, we're not going to stop at this high. We may just keep going. And that's what Yeah. So, that's why I'm thinking, well, where were we where are we going to go? Well, we're due for a breakout. Uh, if you notice, you know, we've been here, you know, for 13 years between 0.01 to 0.2 or 0.1 to 0.2 or give or take. And so, is it going to stay there for another 13 years? No. It's going to do something other than go sideways here. So, I'm thinking the breakout starting right now. And so, if we go to 2 to 0 4, that means GDX will double. So call it 100 where we are right now. That means it goes to 200. So that's what we're probably looking at. Now here's So when's all this going to happen? Well, here's a cycle. Uh this is a cycle goes this goes back to 2001. Uh one's a 16ear cycle and the other one's a see uh one's an 8year cycle and the other the big one's uh the big blue one. Where's my thing at here? Okay. The big blue one uh is the 16-ear cycle. That's this one right here. And the smaller one is the 8-year cycle. And it works pretty well. You know, it picked out, you know, that low was low in 2001. Remember that one? Uh had another low in 2016, pretty much right on target. Uh had a high in 2000. Picked that one out pretty well. Uh had a low in 2024, pretty much pretty close on the 4-year. So yeah, you go up to the half cycle here and that half cycle September of 2027. So I think that's probably where the next high is going to go. Okay. >> Um, and so I'm saying this chart here, I bet we there's a good chance if this thing goes to 2 or goes to 04, which would mean if gold doesn't move, this this GDX would go to double where it is right now, which is basically 100 would go to 200. So that's what So I'm thinking September of next year, if this chart gets to 04, GDX will be at 200. So that's what I'm kind of thinking. >> It's pretty cool. I was just and I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you know I think we're at the beginning here and I was just looking at Tim when this breakout kind of started just August 3rd. Um you know not started but this really ramped up. You gold at 470 there folks and now we're at 45.82. So gold's up like 500 bucks Tim right from 472 that's like 12%. And meanwhile, over that time, folks, you've had the GDX, just what Tim's talking about, goes from 73 to 100, Tim, it's up 37% in the last 7 days. So the GDX up 37% since things started accelerating and you have gold up 12%. Pretty cool, man. Yeah. Yeah. So these ratios are going to work out. So I'm thinking there's there's a lot to be made here. You know, I guess you you strike uh as as you go along, too. These indicators may change a little bit. They may get stronger. It may get weaker, but the point is right now that this is this this indicator right here is matching its previous highs and appears to be breaking out of the highs of 2016 and 2020. And so the only next upside resistance is point4. So things things are going to get probably pretty wild here. What's going to go forward? But uh >> let me let me ask you we had a question in the YouTube tigers den and I know I'm sure there's some of our tigers and tigers and the question is he says uh tell Tim incredible GDX call but do you do you see a short and maybe they need mean like a short-term pullback. Is that what you mean a short yet pullback in the GDX soon? Probably just saying what I just said. You just went up like 40% in two weeks, right? Do you see a short-term pullback? Yeah. I mean I'm not Go ahead. That that's the question of the YouTube. Well, if this if this ratio keeps going as it is, I don't see it. So, that ratio would probably uh show some weakness on a shirt. I see if I got a chart now. I don't. Um, anyhow, this ratio works pretty well. If if you notice here, uh, you were making higher highs back in this time frame. The ratio was going right through the forward telling you that was high. We got the opposite thing. We're we're making higher highs here, and the GDX did not even get above it previous high. So, do you chase the market? I did. I actually bought some yesterday. Uh, uh, so it is what it is, you know. Pull back. I don't know. Um, maybe >> we bought another gold day. We bought another gold equity on Monday in the same deal. We already had four in there and we bought one more cuz it's like, yeah, this is I still think we got room, man. In the same way. And, you know, I'll throw on my it's, you know, I think we both say, you know, the trend right now I think is really positive, folks. And so be careful, you know, trying to short. And yeah, we're going to get some pullbacks. Like I get it. That's human nature to say, man, we just went up 40%. But when you're trying to find those pullbacks in a strong market, that can get dicey, folks. And right now, all the all of it, man, you add in the dollar, and that's just I think it's a real nice setup for the points you make, Tim. And and yeah, we got a nice setup here, man. We'll go forward as as we push forward on this. You know, things may change a little bit, but as it sits right now, everything looks really rosy. I always had that. Yeah, it's a real good setup. So, I wouldn't think about being short. I just think matter of fact, there was a record short interest about a month ago on GDX. Not always, but pretty cool, man. And then we get the explosion and now we're using dollars to buy back our longerterm debt. And the market's saying, "I don't want those dollars. I'll take some gold." Right there. Totally. That's it. And Bitcoin today, too, which is remarkable. But hey, gold. Tim, thanks so much for the education, the analysis. We look forward to talking to you on Tuesday, man. Have a great weekend. We appreciate it. >> All right. Thanks a lot. >> Thanks so much.