August 20th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

The following is a presentation of TFN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. This is awesome. Uh coming to Levu. We're going over to Paris. What's happening? >> Hey Tom, it's Adam from Paris. How you sir? >> I'm doing great. Adam, yourself? >> That's good. Long time no talk. I appreciate everything you've done for me and my family over the years. So >> we appreciate you growing problem with us. >> Yeah. Yeah, sir. I've done gold reports and all the softwares and all your books and a generational Thank you. >> Thank you so much. Appreciate it. >> Yes, sir. Now, Tom O'Brien. >> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN Thursday afternoon. We got about an hour left to go in the trading day and we got markets pulling back. Treasury Secretary says they're going to buy even more debt back, but equities sliding today. You got tough Walmart numbers coming out, driving this market lower right at 7 a.m., folks. There you were on the S&Ps. Trade lower, bounce into the open, but the acceleration right now from about 1230. We're lower, excuse me, by 7/10% in an S&P off by 54 points at 7675. NASDAQ 100 off a similar 7/10% right now, off 223 points, 29,287. the Dow getting brought down. When you got Walmart down, Walmart's down dramatically, folks. We'll jump over after the indices. You got the Dow off 1.2%. So much for 54,000. We're below 53 and you got a 52,000 handle. 52,893 for the Dow and the Russell as yields persist. The Russell negative by 41 points off 1.4% under 3,000. 29.98. Now crude's a problem out here. You got crude up $2.37. We hit 87.69. We had so many headlines, right? The war is on the backdrop right now. But nonetheless, crude 8671 right now. We jump over to yields. Okay. And we got a 10-year right now. Pretty remarkable, folks, when you look at this was the intervention. You give it all up and then some. The 10ear approaching 4.7% just like that. So much for the 10 year with the intervention. Now the 30-year, okay, a little bit lower in yield than where we were yesterday, but the 30-year right now well off of the highs. You traded down from 1109 to 10831, right? Remarkable. Now, you know, the headlines are that, yeah, we're talking about more intervention. Okay, already the intervention was yesterday. Well, we're going to need some more of it cuz yields gave it up just that quickly. Nonetheless, yields right now rising a bit. You got a dollar rises a bit on that, but we're right at the lows of yesterday. Almost 98.90 for the dollar. Gold right now. Yeah. Continuing the run up by another 36 bucks. They said more intervention. We'll take that. Gold bulls. Gold bulls will take that. You know it as gold almost hits 4600. You jump over the equities up another 2.2% right now. How about silver up 3.5%. 6816. You take a look at that GDX folks on a weekly. How about this? Right. And we got the end of today and we have tomorrow. You're already at 108 million. That's basically right where we did last week and you're coming into 144. I think coming into that's what we did on that first acceleration, but it's going to be a big week. You're right back to the highs of April. And the only thing hanging out there now was that acceleration from February to the highs of March. GDX approaching 100. And we hit a high of 100.33 today. Quite a number. Bitcoin. We haven't talked Bitcoin in a while, but you got to talk about it today. Look at this acceleration. Bitcoin. 72,645. How's that for an acceleration for you? And this is the dollar as well, folks. Pay attention to it. Okay. The dollar's trash, right? Gold is great. Bitcoin priced in US dollars is great. Okay? You're telling me, you know, this is real? what we have going on here and the fact that they're piling on again today. You better believe it, folks. Bitcoin up by 6% 72,000 645 making a run just like gold. Okay, assets priced in US dollars, they're going up, folks. Assets priced in US dollars are going up because the dollar is taking it on the chin right now. All right, we jump over the headlines and yeah, the Treasury Secretary signaling that they have a big D toolkit to bring down yields and he flags a bigger debt buyback potential. Now, they said at least 4 billion, right? By at least double was the number yesterday, okay, to ensure orderly trading in a thin summer market. Folks, this is not a problem with late August trading, okay? It is a much bigger problem than that. The fact that even Bloomberg puts that in there. Where did they just quote that thing? Was that in their announcement, the Treasur Treasury Secretary? So, let's see. We're announcing probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week, an increased focus on fiscal consolidation is what he says. We're going to fiscally consolidate everything to do away with that 40 trillion in debt, folks. And hey, you know, we got two choices. You either pay a higher yield or you buy back our own debt with our own dollar that devalues the currency, keeps yields lower. And the reason why you're able to keep the yield lower is cuz you're using a dollar in in in the same vein. Pretty remarkable. So, what happens? Yeah, you're keeping that lower and the dollar is going to be taking it on the chin as has been the case. Now, the 30-year pull back a bit. asked how much more the Treasury is willing to do. We have a big toolkit, so we'll see. And part of it is signaling here to show that we believe that yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals. Well, the dollar is talking and squawking, folks. As that debt hits 40 trillion, quite a number. And energy price is persistent, which is a problem as well. S&P is off by 55. We're coming back taking a look at Walmart, folks. 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Welcome back, folks. and some great comments in the YouTube Tigers Dan talking about 4 billion's nothing when they issue 58 billion of the three-year bonds quarterly auction and I agree right these numbers are nothing you know they're saying at least right he's trying to sound and part of this is is sounding as strong as they can because yields will drop on the longer term if the market thinks that they are hellbent on coming into that market and buying everything in sight. Right? So, I'm going to buy at least 4 billion. Okay? But the writing on the wall is that there's a lot of time left for this administration and this is the beginning of a shift here. I think as in this is now what we're going to be doing. Okay? And guess what? It's a big number when you talk about our debt load. Okay? this Treasury Secretary man, he was giving it to Yellen, right? That Yellen wasn't pushing more of our debt into the longer part of the curve, right? He was talking about the risks inherent of suppressing longerterm yields to uh artificially splurge the economy for politics, right? He was doing all that for Yellen. And now here he is arguing that, and guess what? We got limited options, folks, with 40 trillion in debt. Okay? We're either going to keep it on the super short end of the curve and that has huge potential risks as well. Okay? Or we're going to push it out to the longer end. But if we're pushing out to the longer end, nobody's buying it at the yield we want. So therefore, our only option is we use our own dollars to supply artificial demand to prop up the price, decrease the yield for our own debt. Right? We're manipulating the price markets of our own debt using our fiat currency. Okay? And I'm not going to be out there saying we got to go back on the gold standard, but you better understand the risks of manipulating the yields by using our own fiat currency to prop up the price people are willing to pay. Because if we let that market sort itself out, it would drop and people aren't willing to pay the price, which would mean that we'd have to issue that debt at a yield we're not comfortable with. And I think this is the beginning of a real march, okay, for them to try and make an impact on rates. And they can do it, folks. Okay, the Treasury can do it. And like I was talking about this morning, right? Don't think that this dollar does not have some room to the downside, folks. You take a look at the dollar on a longer term chart, you take CO out of here, okay? And this dollar is really just at the strongest level we've been in in about 25 24 years, 23 years, right? Most of the dollar action was well below there. So, can we survive at that time? Yes, we sure can. Okay? And you better believe that we can. When the last time that we had the 30-year, folks, right at this rate, oh man, the debt situation was a lot different. The debt situation was a lot different. Okay, in the same way we've had this recency bias that rates are so low. Oh my goodness, rates are so high now. That's not the case. Okay, we have huge recency bias cuz for the last 20 years, 18 years since 2008, the financial crisis, right? Rates have been at a remarkably low level, capped off by the run during COVID to basically zero. We had great economic times, folks, when the interest rate on our yield was much higher, but we had a lot less debt. So that's the problem. Okay. Rates where they are right now with the debt level we have, the issuances that we have to push out, we have a real risk if we just go on the short end of the curve. Real risk in terms of staying so short on our debt. And with that in mind, it's almost like tongue and cheek. Remember this day, folks, okay? August 20th, 2026. The budget deficit has peaked, everybody. The Treasury Secretary is telling the world that the budget deficit under this president has peaked. I hope so. I am internally hopeful that they get the debt. But if I was a wagering man, folks, okay? I would not be wagering that somehow this government has gotten our debt under control and the deficit has peaked and we're going to start going down. That doesn't mean that we're not going to have a deficit. I just don't even believe it's peaked. The trajectories for everything are dire. Okay. So he's out here talking about that steep tariffs. Okay. The Treasury Secretary Trump Russell VA right director of awesome management budget. Several government leaders working on fiscal consolidation measures. Several hundreds of billions of dollars could be saved through these efforts. Folks, I'll believe it when I see it. Okay? And there is nothing magic about the 40 trillion number. We can grow our way out of that. Okay, that is for sure. This is not like an impossible thing. But um to say something so bold, folks. Okay, we're going to be laser focused. I believe that. Okay, but there are no details whatsoever. Okay, and he somehow is going to talk about, you know, all of that stuff. And Frank, my man, I love you. He does not control spending. Congress does. But the president and Congress passed a big beautiful bill that's going to add trillions to the debt. So the president and Republicans uh they're not getting it done, folks, when it comes to the deficit and the debt. Okay? It's not even close. Democrats aren't either. And the market's talking and squawking, man. And the Treasury Secretary is making decisions that he has to make. Okay? He's got two tough choices, man. You know, he didn't start this. Okay. The Treasury Secretary, right? Not even close. But we got some difficult decisions. When you're at $40 trillion, you're at a war with Iran. You know, crude's approaching $90 a barrel and our deficit shows no signs of slowing down. And so the Treasury Secretary is making tough decisions. They're going to buy back some of our longerterm debt cuz those yields are becoming a problem. And you got a dollar that's saying, "Man, I'm not even close. I'm not stepping in front of this train. Not even close, man." And that's a good thing for gold, though, folks. It's a good thing for assets. Okay? make sure you're protected in those assets because we now have an administration that you know and listen this this is you know Yellen did it too okay right she did she didn't push it off now then Treasury Secretary Bessant he was out there criticizing her he's in there doing it now right same thing they're not letting the market assign what the yield would actually be to our long-term debt they're not allowing that because it's a problem man right it is a problem if you let the markets assign the actual yield to loan us money when both fiscal parties have no fiscal responsibility whatsoever, folks. None. Okay? Not even close. It's the the disingenuous truths about the big beautiful bill. Tax credits are great. Bring it on. Okay? But that is not fiscal responsibility. It's not. I I the the debate that somehow rapid multi-trillion dollar tax cuts that are not paid for, that's not fiscal responsibility. You can argue that it causes growth and all of that stuff, but the reality is already it's not bringing about the growth that would be necessary to pay for those tax cuts when they hit the debt. Pretty crazy. All right, Walmart. Talk about crazy, man. Walmart down $11.23 down by 10%. You're at 10306. Okay, and that's after a missed their last earnings, too. So, what's coming down the line the next time around? Walmart jumping over to their numbers. That's all I want to show you, but not really. But yeah, comp sales up 2.6%, the slowest in over 6 years. Now, pharmacy was a big problem here, but check this out, folks. And you combine that with retail sales, the economy may have some problems. All right, if Walmart's having problems right now, but pharmacy was a big deal there. So, we'll see. And then I heard I was driving around this afternoon. You know, I talk about how fortunate I was, folks. My dad worked his butt off for his kids. Him and my mom sent me to Noble and Greeno, okay, in Denim. And I'm listening to the Bloomberg update. They're talking about Harvard Feeder School in 1866, the JFK. So JFK attended it for middle school, folks. And these prep schools, $35 million. The whole buildout's going to be another pretty remarkable. I'll finish this one. We're coming back with Tim Ward, folks. Talking some equities and talking some medals. Always a great segment. We'll come back with Tim more. >> Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. 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Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFN airs live financial content streamed live on TFN.com and TFN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 400 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. >> This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions, daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS distributors inc. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps off by 57. Taking a quick look at the heat map. And yeah, we got a lot of red out there. A few pockets of green, Micron in there. You got some of the Visa, Mastercard, but pretty the memory stocks yet again a little bit higher. But Walmart, consumer staples, Costco off by 3% as well. Right now, folks, as we do each and every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time, we're going to talk to Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. You can check Tim out at his website, folks. ordenoracle.com. You see it right there. And right at TFN, folks, if you head over to the services tab, he's got two great webinars. the secret science of market tops and how to identify those market tops as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. And folks, we talk about these ratios all the time. Tim Hord, we've had some action the last couple days in this market since we last spoke. Good afternoon. >> Yeah, good good afternoon. Um, we're going to skip around a little bit. We're going to just cover the S&Ps kind of quick and the gold uh we're going to look at the gold market here. >> The actions that's what I was talking that was what I was referring to, right, man? That gold market. But please, let's start with the S&P. Go for it, please. All right. It's Anyhow, this is I did this earlier today. The trend came in at 5.6. It's still around 16 right now, but still around still below 17. So, it's not showing any bearish signs, at least not yet. And if you notice over the last uh several months, you know, as the SPs went up, uh so did the um spy VIX ratio. So, it's not showing a bearish divergence yet. Um, so this be a bearish divergence would be if the S&P is making higher highs and the the S&P fix ratio making lower highs. So far that's not happening. Um, here's kind of a shortcut. There's a gap right here, which this is uh uh August uh 4th, so I don't know, a couple of weeks ago, whatever. And we had 69 million shares there. and we're running around 40 million shares, maybe a little less right now. We'll probably hit close to 40 million shares uh today or thereabouts, but probably not 70 close to 70 million. So, you know, if you test the gap on 10% ladder volume, that gap's going to hold. And right below that gap is the previous highs of June and July. And all that comes in around 755 to 760 on the SPY. and to get through uh there's another thing here. You had a science strength right through that those previous highs. That's the reason I put this green. So, you had a a a sign of strength through the previous highs. If you go back down to test previous highs, it should be in a lighter volume. And that lighter volume is going to be uh probably around 40 million shares. When you broke through those highs, you had around 70 million shares give or take. So most likely uh this previous lows we're almost touching it right now but you know maybe tomorrow. >> Um so that's the kind of the downside. So I don't think we're busting down here at all. My opinion the next rally is going to tell the whole story. Um if we have to we have to see another sign of strength off this low. If we don't get then uh something else could be happening. >> Okay. >> Um and that's that. So we got let's get to u the gold market here. Uh all right. Uh we'll we'll start with we'll start with this one. This is momentum chart of u I showed this last time 62 day average of the up down volume. Uh 50-day average of the up down volume and u 79 day average up down volume. All three of those turned up and normally when they turn up especially when they get above zero uh that says the next impulse wave has started. So according to this chart and this chart goes back to you know late or mid 2017 and it works pretty well. Uh so we got another we got an uptrend. Obviously if anybody's watching GDX the volumes is really coming in here. So we do have a sign of strength off this low off the last low of July that you have to have that sign of strength. If the market just pops up on average or below average volume is going to come back down again. We don't have that here. So, we definitely got an impulse wave going, but look, let's we're going to look at some bigger uh things going on here. We actually talked about this, I don't know, several months ago, and even a couple of weeks ago, and I think this is a this is, put it this way, a 12-ear cycle seemed to work pretty well for this chart. Anyhow, the middle chart is the XAU, the NDX. So, that's the gold stocks against the uh NASDAQ stocks. And what's what's important about this is this this big this big RSI jump right there. Same thing we had back in 2002 thereabouts is initiation of an uptrend. And you have to have that initiation or that sign of strength off the first low. If you don't have it, then it's meaningless. You have to have that RSI get way above 70 or thereabouts. And that's in the books. That's initiation uptrend. In other words, things have changed from what was happening the previous 12 years. This is a new 12-ear cycle started in 2024. And you got initiation of an uptrend. In general, this RSI of this ratio should stay between 50 to 70 for the next uh 10 years. Same thing happened back in in here. So what that says is gold stocks in general are going to outperform the NASDAQ stocks or QQQ for the next 10 years if this 12 12 year cycle works out. So we'll go back up again which are in the process going up now. We'll probably find some resistance around 70. We may fall back down but in general we're going to this RSI is going to stay above 50. So gold socks are still in the early stages of a major bull market in my opinion and this chart helps support that. Obviously we'll have to see what this chart does. But say next year for some reason this chart falls, you know, down to close to 30 or or even 40 would put doubt in my mind that this thing's working out. It has to stay around 50. I mean, we probably will hit 48, but if it gets down below 40, I'm thinking, well, all bets are off. Uh so but we we can't quite see it right now but the RSI has turned back up. Uh it's 57 right now. Uh but it did hit around 50 49 has turned back up exactly where it's supposed to do. And this rally I think is the early stages of beginning here. Here's another uh chart. This is the XU to uh the S&P. So that's equity market against the SP market. Anyhow, I drew a trend line connecting it the last two highs back in 2015 and it looks like about 2020. Both those years were kind of fiveyear cycles and you had to find uh support at those previous two highs and more or less you did. And now it's turned back up again. We're probably going to go straight up to uh uh uh this is kind of a 0.15. We're at um 0.53. So 0.1 that's about 300% up from here. What that says is if we go to that resistance, which I think we will that means uh gold stocks rocker form the SP stocks by 300%. Now it doesn't say SPX is going to go down. It says says it does says that the gold stocks will outperform the S&P. So okay, I hear the music. >> Pretty cool. And uh I don't know if you heard me any earlier in the show. I mean, I think this dollar might be in trouble, man. And that's it would line up with what you're saying if that's the case. And you know, I was looking at when you were saying the 12 year, right? Check it out. So, the dollar almost did some 12-year action. As in 2002, you're at 121. 2014, you're at 80, and then 2026, you're at 110. Maybe that's going to help me. We'll see. We're coming back with Tim, folks, talking more metals. We'll come right back. Potential trading setups in the stock market. Then, Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger Stand available to all Tigers and Tigrises for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm O'Brien. >> Welcome back, folks. I was rushing that a little bit at the end, Tim. But it was pretty cool. I said, you know, I saying, hey, I don't doesn't mean it's a cycle, but it is pretty cool that when you look at the dollar, man, you did go from 121 and then it took it almost until like 2014 where you caught a bid and then the bids, every time you got a decline, you got another rally and then the first time we've had some declines. We'll see if they continue. But, um, hey, for what it's worth, man. And and the move on the dollar is is pretty stark as you see. And I don't think that's going to change, Tim. I've been harping on it all show, but you know, we got some issues with debt, man. and they're making some difficult decisions and the dollar is still near 100. So, we're we're doing just fine, man. That's that's that's pretty pretty lofty levels for the dollar and it's got a lot of room if you get a pullback to give gold kind of, you know, some some gasoline to the upside. And I'm adding some my own take, but pretty cool. >> Yeah. All right. Go for it, please. >> All right. So, here here's the chart that uh what I kind of been talking about this chart. The last high right there uh actually the bottom window is the um I think it's a monthly chart. Yeah, it's a monthly chart. This is a monthly GDXGLD ratio. When this ratio is rising in GDX gold or gold stocks are outperforming gold and that's what happens bull markets in bare markets gold outperforms gold stocks. In bull markets, gold stocks outperform gold. So you want this ratio rising. You know, if you go back here at the last high of 2011, you notice the ratio just went straight down. It went down all the way until 2016 and kind of getting out of those equities. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So, yeah, it's just just a big bare market and it kind of went sideways for all 13 years. Went sideways. Now, look what's happening now. Uh 0.24 if you is that last high. I went back and checked it. Today, we're 0.24. Now, in other words, we're we're we're actually testing the previous high. If you notice on GDX here, the previous high is around 117 when I did this chart. Call it 100. Uh so we're we're down about 17% of the previous highs. And this ratio is equal to the previous highs. So again, the ratio rises when u gold stocks are outperforming gold. And that's probably what's going to happen here. This this ratio is actually starting to break out. If you notice over um I don't know the last two years uh all of 2000 or half of 2025 and half well it's actually been a year uh uh this ratio more or less went sideways approximately around that 0.2 range and now we're hitting point we actually did hit a little bit above.24 24 today, but we're around 0.04 still. And so what that says is at a minimum, since we're testing previous high, that says at a minimum we'll get back to the previous high of this high. Well, if we start breaking above this high, which we're almost ready to do right now, that says this this is going to keep going. So, we're not going to stop at this high. We may just keep going. And that's what Yeah. So, that's why I'm thinking, well, where were we where are we going to go? Well, we're due for a breakout. Uh, if you notice, you know, we've been here, you know, for 13 years between 0.01 to 0.2 or 0.1 to 0.2 or give or take. And so, is it going to stay there for another 13 years? No, it's going to do something other than go sideways here. So, I'm thinking the breakout starting right now. And so, if we go to 2 to 0 4, that means GDX will double. So call it 100 where we are right now. That means it goes to 200. So that's what we're probably looking at. Now here's So when's all this going to happen? Well, here's a cycle. Uh this is a cycle goes this goes back to 2001. Uh one's a 16ear cycle and the other one's a see uh one's an 8year cycle and the other the big one's uh the big blue one. Where's my thing at here? Okay. The big blue one uh is the 16-ear cycle. That's this one right here. And the smaller one is the 8-year cycle. And it works pretty well. You know, it picked out, you know, that low was a low in 2001. Remember that one? Uh had another low in 2016, pretty much right on target. Uh had a high in 2000. Picked that one out pretty well. Uh had a low in 2024, pretty much pretty close on the 4-year. So yeah, you go up to the half cycle here and that half cycle September of 2027. So I think that's probably where the next high is going to go. Um, and so I'm saying this chart here, I bet we there's a good chance if this thing goes to 2 or goes to 04, which would mean if gold doesn't move, this this GDX would go to double where it is right now, which is basically 100, would go to 200. So that's what So I'm thinking September of next year, if this chart gets to 04, GDX will be at 200. So that's what I'm kind of thinking >> pretty cool. I was just and I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you know I think we're at the beginning here and I was just looking at Tim when this breakout kind of started just August 3rd. Um you know not started but this really ramped up. You gold at 4,70 there folks and now we're at 45.82. So gold's up like 500 bucks Tim right from 472 that's like 12%. And meanwhile, over that time, folks, you've had the GDX, just what Tim's talking about, goes from 73 to 100, Tim, it's up 37% in the last 7 days. So the GDX up 37% since things started accelerating, and you have gold up 12%. Pretty cool, man. Yeah. Yeah. So, these ratios are going to work out. So, I'm thinking there's there's a lot to be made here. You know, I guess you strike uh as as you go along, too. These indicators may change a little bit. They may get stronger, they may get weaker, but the point is right now that this is this this indicator right here is matching its previous highs and appears to be breaking out of the highs of 2016 and 2020. And so the only next upside resistance is point4. So things things are going to get probably pretty wild here what's going to go forward. But uh >> let me let me ask you we had a question in the YouTube tigers den and I know I'm sure there's some of our tigers and tigers and the question is he says uh tell Tim incredible GDX call but do you do you see a short and maybe they need mean like a short-term pullback. Is that what you mean a short yet pullback in the GDX soon? Probably just saying what I just said. You just went up like 40% in two weeks, right? Do you see a short-term pullback? Yeah. I mean I'm not Go ahead. That that's the question of the YouTube. Well, if this if this ratio keeps going as it is, I don't see it. So, that ratio would probably uh show some weakness on a shirt. I see if I got a chart. No, I don't. Um, anyhow, this ratio works pretty well. If if you notice here, uh, you were making higher highs back in this time frame. The ratio is going right through the forward telling you that was high. We got the opposite thing. We're we're making higher highs here and the GDX did not even get above its previous high. So, do you chase the market? I did. I actually bought some yesterday. Uh, uh, so it is what it is, you know. Pull back. I don't know. Um, maybe. >> We bought another gold day. We bought another gold equity on Monday in the same deal. We already had four in there and we bought one more cuz it's like, yeah, this is I still think we got room, man. In the same way. And, you know, I'll throw in my It's, you know, I think we both say, you know, the trend right now I think is really positive, folks. And so be careful, you know, trying to short. And yeah, we're going to get some pullbacks. Like I get it. That's human nature to say, man, we just went up 40%. But when you're trying to find those pullbacks in a strong market, that can get dicey, folks. And right now, all this all of it, man. You add in the dollar, and that's just I think it's a real nice setup for the points you make, Tim. And and yeah, we got a nice setup here, man. We'll go forward as as we push forward on this. You know, things may change a little bit, but as it sits right now, everything looks really rosy. I always had that. Yeah, it's a real good setup. So, I wouldn't think about being short. I just think matter of fact, there was a record short interest about a month ago on GDX. That's always not always, but pretty cool, man. And then we get the explosion and now we're using dollars to buy back our longerterm debt. And the market's saying, I don't want those dollars. I'll take some gold. Right there. Totally. That's it. And Bitcoin today, too, which is remarkable. But hey, gold. Tim, thanks so much for the education, the analysis. We look forward to talking to you on Tuesday, man. Have a great weekend. We appreciate it. >> All right. Thanks a lot. >> Thanks so much. We'll come right back, folks. >> Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. 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You got tech stocks down by 7/10%. Dow taking on the chin. Some weak Walmart numbers down 1.2% 2% and the Russell as yields persist down 1.3%. You jump over to crude 8661 up 2.6% right now for crude as yeah tensions persist. You got the Treasury Secretary out there giving war updates and yeah he's a cabinet secretary. I'm sure he's privileged to some top level information, but he's talking about basically that we're going to hurt him so hard economically that that you don't even have to worry about. But he's trying to calm the markets, folks, right? He's saying that there's not going to be flare-ups. And now we're going to get a press conference Monday, right? Yeah. He'll hold a press conference Monday to talk about exactly what we're going to do. It's going to be full of details as to why we're not going to have to have any more. There won't be largecale kinetic restart of the war. We'll get all those details, folks, on Monday. I I can't say it with a straight face because unfortunately the details have been light. It's very hard to believe that this is going to end any type of flare-ups in the war. And yeah, we've always been bringing it for, you know, with sanctions and that should be the case and it will be the case, I'm sure. But the fact that that's going to calm what's going on over there, that's another that's another step entirely. And look at this market finishing at lows right now on the S&P 763. Walmart shares down by 9%, 10397. And yeah, you got gold up by almost 1%. And how about the GDX? How about those numbers, right? GDX up by 37% since August 3rd, folks, from that day right there from 73 to 100. Gold's only up 12% since then. And yeah, as I was talking about, I rushed through that article. These prep schools, I was so fortunate, folks, to go to this school, Noble and Green of Massachusetts. It is remarkable what they're doing though, all of them. So, this project is going to be 68.5 million. They just completed, this is an article from earlier this year in April where they just reopened the schoolhouse after 10 months of construction and they're going back to the bond market for 35 million. The school's going to pay for the remainder and at 70 million. So fortunate to go there, folks. Folks, thanks for tuning in, spending your time with me. Time, the one thing we can never get back. Use it wisely. Spend it wisely. Have a great night, folks. We'll see you tomorrow. Thanks folks.