August 19th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. >> Let's go to my man George in Newport Richie. George, what's going on, brother? >> Hello, Tom. Good afternoon. How are you? >> I'm doing great. Yourself? >> Yeah, great. I've been following you for the last 2 years, listening to [music] your show. >> Well, thank you very much. I appreciate it. >> All the hard work you've done for us over the years. Well, I really appreciate you calling and saying hi. >> My pleasure, Tom. Welcome to your show. >> Thank you, man. Have a great one, a safe one. Appreciate it, man. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] >> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN. Thanks for joining me for the final hour of the trading day. And we got a bunch of news stories, folks, coming at you. And it kicks off with the Treasury. Yeah, they're going to be buying back more of our long-term debt. That accelerates things this morning. And there's your acceleration on the S&Ps when we get that announcement at 8:30 this morning. Now, what's remarkable is, okay, the 10ear is pretty much right where we were when we kicked off the day. But you got an S&P right now positive by 3/10%. We were as high, making a run for those all-time highs at 7764. You give up some of those gains. We're currently trading at 7736. And yeah, that little volatility there at 2:00, the market digesting the Fed minutes, okay, as Fed officials seeing the need for rake hikes if inflation does not cool. Now, they're going to get some more data, right? They get August data before the September meeting. Uh, nonetheless, NASDAQ 100, you give up those early gains, right? Tech stocks under a bit of pressure today. You're down by 40 points or about 1/10enth percent right where we were coming into that 830 announcement from the Treasury. 29,545. You got a Dow up 117 points or 210% 53,519 and the Russell sometimes those small caps a little bit more yield sensitive right they're up by 12 points or 4/10% trading at 338 and as I mentioned you get over to yields so we're positive by 7 ticks okay but we were already in the green coming into that announcement really the tenure has not moved that much at all which is surprising we're at 4.65% 65%. Now the market had already eased a bit. Okay. In terms of coming off, we're at 10809 yesterday, right? Pushing almost 4.75 on the 10ear. You came into that announcement already higher by 14 ticks and we just drift up a bit to 108.25 4.65 on the 10-year. The 30-year likes that news though. It sure does. Yeah. And you get over to the yield curve, folks. So the year the 30-year is up a full point in 10 ticks. You're at 10931. You're basically trading right at 110 right now. Okay. And you take a look at the yield curve and yeah, you know, not a tremendous amount of movement, you know, on the except when you go to that very top end. They had a 20-year auction today. So you got nine basis points of movements on the 20-year, nine basis on the 30-year. The 10-year was already moving. the tenure had already moved five basis points coming into that announcement, right? All the yields had moved a little bit. So, you do get a reaction, but boy folks, where the reaction is most pronounced is the dollar. Okay? Now, been trying to put this one together fully in terms of this was the last Fed meeting. Okay? And the last Fed meeting, the dollar just starts trading lower, man. It cannot find a bid since then. >> [snorts] >> And so what may be happening here, right, is the market's saying, "Okay, here's what they're going to do now, right? That we're going to repurchase our own debt to keep yields artificially low, but who's going to want to hold our dollars if we're using our own dollars to buy our own debt to artificially keep the rates low?" Okay? And you know, it's undeniable, right? Yields haven't moved from that announcement, folks. And we got the dollar pulling back extremely. And hey, one of the one of the easiest ways, okay, it's one of the risks out there running a debt like we're running right now. That debt has to get paid off. We have debt service numbers. The easiest way to pay off that debt is through a weakened dollar. Now, inflation does it, right? A weaker currency does it because you're paying it back in the same way. And hey, we'll see where we go from there. But yeah, that's the headline. And you better believe that's giving gold a bid, man. Because if they're just going to start using the dollar to buy our own debt back to artificially try and keep down those longerterm yields doubling the guy and what's absolutely remarkable is that they just came out with the repurchase plan 2 weeks ago. So they could have done it then they could have done it the next time but no they said we got to do it right now man yields are a problem and gold says we'll take that. Thank you very much. We will take that with gold up by 3.2% up 141 bucks 4562. How about that acceleration, folks? And the equities, yeah, you better believe it. Up by 8.6% right now for the GDX. You got silver up 3.7% 6639 right now. You jump over to platinum up by 5.3% 1826. Quite a run for platinum up $92 right now.$1826. Copper not quite participating. Copper flat at 648 right now. All right, some of the other stories. How about Mona? MRNA. Look at this run, baby. Up 150%. Okay. And yeah, you pull this one over, Merk's getting a lift, too, cuz it has to do with Air Kuda as well. But yeah, you're talking about now what I was talking about this this morning as well. is it as they put it here it's the first positive final stage trial for any mRNA based cancer therapy and what it did was it met its main goal as the vaccine combined with Kruda which is from Merc prevented melanoma returning after it was surgically removed more than just using Kruda alone right and it also slowed the spread to new areas of the body so you know the promise of auture there and yeah 150% to the upside. They always say the example everyone always uses right when you say you know if you go short your your losses are unlimited right I mean that company could always come out tomorrow and they have the the cure for cancer ma does not have the cure for cancer folks okay but it is remarkable when you type you know the exuberance and just to put things in context though yeah quite a run up in 2021 they pull back and that's quite a move up 150% on some positive results for their melanoma Okay. vaccine combined with Kruda which is from Merc and Merc gets to lift on that news too cuz they're going to use patent they're going to lose patent protection on that at some point and yeah now they can combine it with potentially that vaccine. Now, the thing about that vaccine, folks, is that this is an individualized vaccine, okay? As in they literally take a biopsy or use, right, what your tumor is actually like and then they have to develop that vaccine personalized. It's a personalized shot, okay, that they then take. It takes 6 weeks. This trial was,00 patients, okay? Okay. And that vaccine was given every 3 weeks or as many as nine doses. But so they have a long way to go before this comes out to the public. When you think about you have to actually biopsy those, you know, how does this happen in terms of a large scale, but pretty encouraging results and the markets reacting today. Merc up 13%, Maderna up 150%. How's that one for you? We jump over to Nvidia shares. There's some volatility on the open for you. Nvidia trading right now flat. We jump around to some of the memory stocks. Yeah, these things, man. How's that for volatility on you, man? 70 bucks on the 50 bucks on the open, right? Madna, excuse me, Maderna. Micron down by 1% right now. You jump over to SanDisk. SanDisk right now, there's some volatility down by 3.8% right now. All right, folks. Stay tuned. We got an S&P up by 23. We got yields easing a bit and we got gold pushing higher in a big way. And when we come back, folks, we're going to be talking with Sean Edwards from Direction, vice president, institutional ETF strategist. We're going to be talking some ETFs, folks. Always a great segment with Sean. Come on back. >> Researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey. You've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories of [music] these so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. This is what sets Teddy Kekstacks [music] the Tiger Forex Report off the riff raff. Every Monday, former Chicago Merkantile [music] Exchange member and author Teddy Kekstat releases his Tiger Forex Report newsletter where he dives into the complex world of Forex and [music] takes time to actually teach you his methods that have made him so successful in the fast-paced and rewarding world of Forex trading. Furthermore, all subscribers receive access to archived live streams of Teddy's where he provides university level education to help you in Forex trading. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money [music] back guarantee. So, what are you waiting for? Forex awaits. The reality is that navigating financial markets [music] can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the [music] latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating [music] winning trades. At TFN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. [music] That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take [music] on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger [music] TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFN.com or [music] on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. [music] Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P right now up by 22 points. NASDAQ down by 33. And right now, folks, we're going to talk to Shawn Edwards. Sean is with Direction. He's institutional. He's a vice president, folks. Excuse me, institutional ETF strategist. We talk to Sean about once a month and we talk about ETFs. And folks, if you want to find out more about directions, great products. You can head on over to the front page of TFN, TFN. You see those great direction banners over there. And yeah, we're going to talk about some of those ETFs right now. Sean Edwards, good afternoon. Welcome back to TFN. >> Hey, good afternoon, Tommy. Uh and thanks again uh for having me. Another exciting day to talk uh some volatility that we're seeing in the markets and uh ways to take advantage using our ETFs. >> You know, it's pretty cool, Sean. The yields in focus today, but we just got Fed minutes, of course. Um but I wanted to kick it off if we could with with some of the energy. You know, crude of course handling things pretty well all things considered. We're at $84.36 right now for a barrel. But I I wanted to talk about crude because man, we got, you know, we're 6 months almost into the the skirmish, the war with Iran and crude price is handling it pretty well. But for those energy traders out there, you guys have some great ETFs. Can we kick it off with maybe some energy for traders looking for some exposure to the energy sector? >> Absolutely. Uh and and as you mentioned, Tommy, the Middle East tensions are back in focus as hopes for a US Iran progress. They they are fading. The straight of Hormuz remains restricted. So it impacts a key route for roughly 20% of global oil consumption. As you mentioned, Brent cruise around 84 was around or above 90 uh dollars uh yesterday near a 3-week high. So as markets are continuing to price and prolong supply disruption as a result of the tensions around the straight of horm. So, for those traders who want to trade the volatility around energy, I'm going to list off a few different ETFs that you can look at trading to take advantage of some of those swings. As we know, higher oil can reignite inflation concerns that influence rates. So, there are quite a few trading opportunities within energy, but then also rates. Uh to start with energy, you can look at ERX and ERY. Uh that's our pair for the direction daily energy bull and bear 2x ETFs provides exposure to the energy select sector index. Again these are tactical short-term trading tools is providing that daily exposure to that index 2x daily exposure. Uh secondarily you can look at uh gush and drip. We've talked about this particular ticker symbol I feel like all year Tommy uh just because it's providing exposure. >> Right. Exactly. It's providing exposure to the S&P oil and gas and exploration and production select industry index. So that is bull and bear 2x exposure on that index. So as we are seeing these swings in the price of oil, this is where we're seeing traders uh trade in and out of gush and drip throughout the year. Now also a newer strategy that we launched uh not more than a year old. The ticker symbol there is TEXU. That's a direction daily energy top five bull 2x ETF. So you're going to get exposure to energy related companies. Some of the top companies like Kicole Phillips, Exxon, Chevron, SLB, and then Williams. So within our energy um you know suite of leverage ETFs, there's quite a few options that you can look at taking advantage of. And as I mentioned, higher oil, it does complicate the rate outlook. Uh we did see the Fed uh you know did announce that buyback of of bonds as well. So we're seeing that the Fed is looking to take action as well, but oil also impacts uh the rate outlook. So we see the 30-year Treasury yield, it reached 5.33%, so the highest since around 2007. So uh if these oil uh prices stay elevated, long duration bonds could uh remain under pressure. So for those traders that are looking to trade volatility volatility around interest rates, you can look at trading ticker symbol TMF and TMV. So that gives you exposure to the long end of the curve with the exposure being the ICE US Treasury 20 plus year bond index. So again TMF uh if you're bullish bond prices, TMV if you're bearish bond prices. So again the direction daily 20 plus year treasury bull and bare 3x ETF for the shorter end of the curve. So the seven to the 7 to 10year Treasury bull and bare uh ETFs you can look at TYO and TYD. Uh so again that's the 7 to 10year Treasury uh bond index. So quite a few tickers. I know I read off quite a few Tommy but I think they could be helpful for the traders that are listening currently. Oh, and boy, those yields, man. You know, and the headlines almost right. They don't, right? They they do write themselves as in like highest 30y year and almost 20 years was coming out there. And so the the they're going to see what they can do. And and pretty cool when you you know, you guys at direction, you bring the the three times to some of those leverage. And so check it out, folks. TMF, TMV. Pretty cool. You get some types of three times when boy, we got some volatility in yields right now, man. Uh jumping from there, Sean, going to we're in earnings, man. And I'm always talking about the single stock ETFs, but semis in in particular, but the the the big dog, man, Nvidia, they got earnings coming up. Uh you guys got some great ETFs for Nvidia, of course. But talking about semis, please talk to me and the traders. What what you guys have um in focus with the semis and Nvidia earnings coming up. >> Absolutely. Nvidia reports next week. We all know Nvidia is the bell weather when it comes to semiconductors. um AI spending remains strong but I think many uh traders investors they're they're looking to see whether or not the growth can keep pace with uh the expectations that we have as investors and traders. So we're looking to Nvidia. So for those traders that want to trade volatility around Nvidia's earnings, you can look at ticker symbol NVDU which provides 2x exposure bull exposure uh to the underlying performance of Nvidia on a daily basis. Or you can look at the inverse which is NVD which provides inverse 1x bare exposure to the performance of Nvidia common stock. So NVDU if you are bullish you want 2x exposure. NVD if you're bearish if you want to uh you know hedge your current position or if you're just simply bearish >> and it's pretty cool and not to jump in but for those investors out there folks if you got positions in Nvidia and you just want to go risk off without selling your position right and taking that capital hit it's a great use in that capacity too um which is pretty cool >> absolutely thank you for that Tommy uh and then if you want broader exposure to the semiconductor sector our largest ETF which we have seen seen uh tremendous flows in and out as traders look to uh you know take advantage of the semiconductor trade is SO XL. I know many of your traders are probably trading that currently. Again, SO XL 3x bull ETF on the semiconductor index. >> Pretty cool. Those semis we're going to be writing about those for years, Sean. I mean these moves, right? >> The volatility there is amazing. Uh and then also if you're bearish, you can look at ticker symbol SO XS. That's uh inverse exposure to the NYC semiconductor index. And then again uh one of our newer launches if you want concentrated exposure to some of those hyperscalers or semiconductor names. Uh you can look at Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, AMD and Taiwan Semi. You can look at our top five semiconductor ETF. That ticker symbol there is TSXU and TSXD. And for those traders that want to trade the theme of AI, you can look at ticker symbol AIBU and AIBD. That's the direction daily AI and big data bull and bear 2x ETF. So some of the names mentioned, they're within that broad basket of stocks that give you exposure to those companies participating in artificial intelligence and big data. >> And hey, we only have one minute left, but I got to get in to Liftoff and SpaceX and Tesla as well. You guys have the bearish one now as well. I saw man you know liftoff is two times but you got the bearish so please talk to me about liftoff and LFD please. >> Sure. Really quickly I think uh many of the traders are familiar with loft. So liftoff LF 2x exposure to SpaceX. Now we recently launched inverse 2x exposure to SpaceX as well. We're going to see uh tomorrow uh 319 million additional shares becoming eligible for trading. So, additional supply creating volatility. You can trade the bull or the bear, whether you're bullish or bearish. SpaceX, we have the tools for you. Again, tactical short-term trading tools, monitor your trades daily. Uh, and as always, go to our website for more information. Again, thank you, Tommy. >> Sean, great stuff, man. Two times, folks, on the bull and the bear on SpaceX as those unlocking. Sean, appreciate it, man. Look forward to talking to you next month. Thanks so much, brother. >> No problem, Tony. Talk to you. >> Have a good one. We'll come right back, folks. Most letters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain [music] potential. But how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple [music] answer, the opening call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman wave trading methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers [music] have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology in order to [music] accurately call movements in a wide range of equities from semiconductors to uranium to [music] key indices and so much more. Basil is old school, taking the time to educate the trader while also giving his insights into key indices, selective stocks, and more. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while [music] taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you [music] make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on [music] TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating [music] investors. This portion of the Tom O'Brien Show is brought to you by Directions. Daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the perspectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. [music] Welcome back, folks. And we got S&P positive by 25, NASDAQ off by 13, and SpaceX. Yeah, you pull back sharply. And it is so remarkable how many of those shares are going to continue to be unlocked to be able to sold as you go throughout the year. It's something like 4.5 billion shares by year end, folks, are going to get unlocked for people that own private shares before the IPO that they can sell into the market. Okay? And Elon's chunk, which is like 6 or 7 billion shares, I should get the exact number. Uh that doesn't get unlocked until next June. Now, he's probably not going to sell anyway by then because that would just tank the stock in itself. But those unlockings, you better believe it. And as Sean was finishing up there, you know, pretty cool. Now, they launched Liftoff literally the day that SpaceX started trading and IPOed and then about 2 weeks ago, okay, they launched the bear and they're both 200%. So, if you're looking for a a way to short that equity or just buy it long, uh, and again, folks, okay, they're daily investment vehicles, right? Daily leveraged and inverse ETFs. And if you want to find more out about more of their products, okay, check out the education center. They have great information. It's all free. Okay, you hit the education center and the two you can just say start here. All right, but right here under getting started, understanding leveraged and inverse exchange traded funds and then volatility matters. They're great just walkthroughs that kind of just show you, okay, how these trade when you're talking about leverage, talking about two times bull, two times bare, three times bull, three times bare, right? And you see it shows you what are they using? Well, they're using a mix of derivatives and equities. Okay? And on the bare side, they're using straight at derivatives is how they're doing it. And then what's cool though is it shows you how your exposure varies and it shows you how your long-term returns are impacted depending on how the market moves. Okay? Talking about if you have a trending market, right? What's your what's your return going to be versus three times the return? If you have a choppy market, what's it going to be like? There's your trending market. All right. And yeah, you can see, so in this example, right, you have an index that goes up 35%. You buy the three times bull, but guess what, folks? On a longer term basis, now this ETF got held from April until December, eight months, right? But sometimes it works on your side, sometimes it doesn't. If you're bullish and you get a momentum market that just keeps going up, a three times return ETF is almost like adding leverage, right, the entire way up. And so if you just keep going up, you're just adding leverage. So actually in that example, you get 157% return by holding the three times. Now, it can go the other way, okay? But they're great educational pieces, folks. Check it out. And yeah, SpaceX and congrats to the team at Direction. They got great products, folks. They get these things out so quickly now. And pretty cool that there's an easy way to short some of these highly volatile vehicles. And buyer beware though, folks, okay? Put some stops in because SpaceX alone is trading with tremendous volatility. And you add in a double, right? You got liftoff, you're trading two times, you're down almost 6% right now. Pretty cool. All right, we jump back to yields. There we go. I'm catching a little bit of this action we got from this morning. So, let's talk about the Fed minutes cuz maybe that's a continuation of what we going on at 2:00 talking about some Fed minutes. Let me find that right one. Oh, that's not it. Forgive me. [snorts] Had too many good. There we go. Look at all the headlines we got up here. Trump is talking with technology leaders. Open AAI is going to be a public company in 2027. I think we all kind of know that. So, Fed minutes, yeah, rate hikes, they may be needed. Come on, Bloomberg. If the inflation continues, okay, and they're going to get more data. With regard to the outlook for monetary policy, participants reiterated that their interpretations of incoming information will be a key component of their deliberations. Well, surprise, surprise. Most participants anticipated that inflation would step down over the rest of the year. But many, so you got most and then you got many, right? They love those those terms. They they choose those words very particularly. But many participants noted the possibility that inflation might be more persistently elevated. And yeah, the Fed's so-called counting words, right? The term many is used to describe a group that's nearly half of all of them, including officials who don't vote, though. We know we we want to know what the voting members say. So, yeah, you get those Fed minutes at 2:00. We got yields easing a bit, but today's all about the dollar, folks. That's that's my take. You know, we got a weak dollar. You got gold catching a real acceleration, baby. And uh we got we got silver daddy memes going on in the den, folks. That's the kind of day we got going on, right? Hey, the uh spirit animals are alive and well in the gold market. Look, it's not stopping, man. Yeah, you're getting another acceleration on the Fed minutes. Hey, it's an acceleration of everything going on. You got gold up 145 bucks right now. GDX pushing back to those highs, up by 8.9% right now. We jump over to silver up 3.8%. 8%. Let's check out the silver equities. Hecka up 13.5. How's that one for you? All right. Harmony up almost 10% right now. Verse Majestic up 12%. Yeah, Endeavor up 13%. Look at these moves, man. I mean, no matter where you look in this market, folks, okay, the dollar's getting decimated. It's a it's a good day to be in gold equities. Agnico Eagle. And you know, talk about direction, folks. You know, don't forget about Nugget and Dust. Okay, there you go. And Jay Nug and JDST. The two times Bull and Let me Let me before I Is it two times? Let make sure I get it right. I think it's the two times. Yeah, Nugget and Dust. That's the gold miners index. Bullen bear two times ETF. How's that one for you, man? From 160 to 184. And then you got Jay Nug is the juniors up 17% today. Doesn't matter where you look in that market, man. Let's take a look. You got Mox Mchuan up about 10% right now. Kin Ross up about 10% right now. Yeah, Quarter Lane up 12.5. Quite a day. Hey, you know, whatever's going on in this dollar, folks. Listen to it, okay? It ain't dollar right now. That's what's happening. And and this is separate from yields, which is the fascinating part. You know, usually you'd see yields decrease and the dollar weakens on a less yield, right? Not happening today, man. As in this dollar is extremely weak and it has been really since that last Fed day. You were at 10150 and yeah, you consolidated a bit, but remember that that was July 29th, folks. We're at 10150. We've dropped almost three full points in the dollar, okay? From July 29th. And you take a look at the 10-year. Look at the 10 year. You're only 10 ticks away in the 10 year, right? On that day, you came into that day at about 10816 on the 10-year. So, the 10-year has barely budged. You know, a little bit higher price, lower yield. Meanwhile, the dollars dropped three full points during that time, folks. All right. So, that was maybe the writing on the wall. They weren't going to get the cuts. Well, if we don't get the cuts, then maybe we'll just trade a little bit lower. And they're going to use those dollars to buy our own bonds to keep the yield lower. S&P's up by 19. We're coming right back, folks. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money back guarantee. So, you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfn.com. TFN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, directions daily leveraged and inverse ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with [music] up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bare funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. 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Just visit [music] the front page of tfn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm O'Brien. [snorts] Welcome back, folks. And that's an hourly of the dollar. And yeah, you get that last acceleration at the 2:00 with those Fed minutes. And we we're right at the lows of that first acceleration. Pretty stark move. When you look at the 30 year, you definitely get a little bit of a bounce today. We're back to 110. And you know who really likes this? The Japanese making their job a little bit easier over there as the yen strengthens to 158.21. You come in yesterday at 15977. You take a look at this thing on a daily. That was the dramatic intervention right between the US and Japan. And now you get this move here. We'll see where we can hold from here. But the yen [snorts] yen strengthening. And of course it is when you got a day like this in the dollar, man. Look at that move, folks. and the dollar, you know, breaking 99. We're kind of breaking this area that we got a little consolidation in May. You got a gap out here from April. Yeah. And as I talked about, we came into that war, that war, this war over the weekend from February to March. So, we were pushing 98 already on the dollar and we're at 98.882 right now. And meanwhile, folks, we've had the 10-year go from four to 465. And the dollar's at the same price almost. It's not quite, right? It's a little bit higher, but it just shows you that higher yields are not helping the dollar right now at all. Not even close. It's not happening. And as a gold bull, folks, I think we got a great setup here. You know, you're going to have quite a one-two punch when you look at the breakaway that we got originally. That's a gold contract. Check out the GDX, though. Yeah, cuz there's your original breakaway with volume and you're going to get another big bar, man. Cuz it's only Wednesday. We got two days left. You got a bid and you're pushing now back to where we were at the highs of April. You hit 10239 and we have a high today at 9747 and you got some volume, folks. Now, we're starting to come into these three bars here, though. I guess starting I mean that that was all the way down to 7874, but we do have some volume there. We're going to want some continuation volume here. We're at about 70 million shares right now. You did 108 million last week and 144 the prior week. But this thing's making a run for the highs, folks. And yeah, the dollar's in trouble right now until it changes. That's what the charts are telling you. All right, we check in on Mon. Yeah, this thing's not stopping either. Look at this. Up 170% now. You're at 63 bucks. You're at 69. Remarkable. 169. Yeah, remarkable. All right, we talked some Fed minutes. Talked the Fed. Yeah, we talked merc but tariffs. So, yeah, last minute deal seems like it's going to get done. The US is going to have the tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and they like that. So that's going to go to 25% yet to be finalized. Not expected to apply across the board. And yeah, they paused the last minute levy basically right at the last minute last 10:30. They were supposed to go into effect at midnight. And the move under discussion would generally have the US tariff on imports of those two metals which is currently at 50%. So you got Canadian steel producers ratcheting in higher on that news and the US pulling back. Yeah, they're going to have to compete with Canadian steel now that's not getting taxed by 50%. So we'll see what the details come out but nonetheless looks like progress there and that is a good thing. [snorts] And so yeah the debt buybacks. So the the size of liquidity support buyback operations they're going to increase by at least double it says folks. Okay at least double is all it says. And for securities dated from the 10 to the 30 and the 10 gets a little bit of a bid. The 30-year is really the one that got the bid. You see a drop in yields to 5.2. And that's that's that's that's the important question. How longasting the impact will prove remains to be seen. What really gets long rates lower is a slowing economy or resolution on the Iran conflict conflict. The debt should be thrown in there as well. And that combines with the Iran conflict. You know, fighting wars, 80 billion, 200 billion, right? None of it's paid for, all that stuff. And this happened prior. Okay. [snorts] Treasury bond buybacks evoke a memory of Fed's operation twist. So this was from 2011. to pull down bond yields. Back then, even after the Fed had slashed short-term interest rates to help resuscitate the economy after the Great Recession, okay, [snorts] longerterm Treasury rates remain stubbornly elevated. Now, the economy is in far better shape, and that's the difference. Okay? The steady bond market selloff since the start of the war has pushed long-term yields the highest since 2007. And look what happened when they came in last time. This was the last time they came in. Look what happened afterwards, right? They came in and it this was the 10 year. Look at this 10 year, man. All right. Look at this tenure. 2.1. Look at that 10 year 66%. It's amazing we didn't push out more paper at that time, right? And yeah, you can't exactly push it out because you push it out, that's going to change the yield, etc. But you can see the last time they did this, folks. What happened immediately afterwards? These are yearly notches. Okay, so they were in there looks like from September of 2011 to November of 2012 almost. And right when they stopped, the 10 year went from 176 up to 3%. And yeah, things got volatile and then CO hit. Okay, but hey, we'll see where they go. It did the trick, at least temporarily. Well, if all you're worried about is temporary help, then you're all set. It's a soft form of financial repression, as they put it. I mean, pretty remarkable. We're buying back more of our own debt at a time when our deficits are just run a muck. And I think that's what you're seeing play out in the dollar today. They're saying, "Oh, oh, you guys are going to use the dollar to increase the amount of buybacks on the longer term debt. That's going to artificially bring down that yield. How are you going to do that? You're going to print dollars." Well, we're not going to buy those dollars at the same rate if you're just going to print off dollars to decrease the yield. All right, let's jump around to some of those chip stocks. You got Nvidia. Yeah, pulling back yet again coming into that closing bell right now. Nvidia off by 7/10% right now. Micron shares off by 1%. We jump over to Target. So Target had some good numbers today. You know, I was talking about early on the morning program saying, boy, they're decent numbers, man. If Target can't get a bid on this one, and yeah, they did get a bid right on the opening bell. Always interesting where sometimes the market's just not, you know, true supply and demand, folks, on the opening bell. We see it all the time. So Target up by 5% on some good numbers. Walmart shares down by 6/10% but Target's been on a run, man. Little bit under the radar. At least my radar. Look at this straight line move, man. It's almost a year. You're on a 9month run, doubling in price from 8344 to 1593 and we're now above this rip lower from November 24. Pretty remarkable. You go from 160 to 83 and you get it back in less than a year. Target up by 5%. market trading a little bit lower coming into the opening bell. S&P is up by just 11 right now. We got a NASDAQ 100 off by 87. One more segment, folks, coming right back. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to dfnn.com, then hit watch tiger TV. That's tfn.com and hit watch tiger TV. [music] Welcome back folks. We take a look at the heat map. You're talking about chip stocks yet again. How about some of the man? Dell off 7.3. SanDisk off 4%. Seagate off nearly 8%. Western Digital off 7% right now. Lamb off 6%. We got Industrial slightly in the red and a Caterpillar. They're basically an AI company with batteries. GE off 5% right now. Consumer staples, you got Target higher, Walmart, Costco in the red. Some of the consumer products, Coke up 1.8, Pepsi as well, Proctor and Gamble in the green, and Apple and Amazon higher. Let's jump to Tesla up 3.3% right now. There you go. Maybe they're selling SpaceX shares and buying Tesla shares, right? Tesla by 3.7% right now and SpaceX down by 3% right now. We keep our eye on yields. The market's selling off coming into it right now. We'll see if the S&P is holding on to gains. We're down. We're just positive by eight points right now. Look at this. Not sure if we just got some headlines. Let's check out crude. It's always one of the first prices you can go. The headlines right now mostly dealing with the dealing with the Middle East. No, no acceleration just yet in crude, but the dollar's not stopping. 9880. Quite a move on the dollar right now. But yeah, you got a little bit of a pullback to end the day with the NASDAQ right now down about 310%. NASDAQ 100. That is 29,493. We jump over the VIX. Now the VIX is saying no fear whatsoever in this market, folks. 1504 for that VIX. How about it? Nobody paying up for premium. So they double the buybacks to at least 4 billion of the longest dated 30 years. Hey, we'll see. They're trying to keep them down. Try try as they may, but dollar's not a fan of using those dollars to buy our long-term debt. And gold loves that. We'll finish with gold. We're almost finishing at tick highs with gold, folks. We're up 148 bucks, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in. spending your time with me. Couldn't do what I do every day without you tigers and tigresses out there. Appreciate it so much. Enjoy your night, folks. Spend that time wisely. Thanks so much, folks. Have a great night. We'll see you in the morning.