August 18th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] Welcome back, folks. We got markets in the red. S&P is down by about 6/10%. NASDAQ 100 off 1.7%. Right now, folks, as we do each and every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time, we're going to talk to our man Tim Ord, author of the Ordor Oracle. You can reach Tim at his website, orordheoracle.com. You see him right there. And don't forget, if you head on over to TFN, folks, right under the services tab, you'll see two great webinar archives. the secret science of market tops and how to identify them as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. The VIX is in there, folks. We've had some VIX action uh recently as well. Tim Ward, good afternoon. Yeah, good afternoon. Actually, um we're talking about the VIX. Uh we kind of showed this last week. I don't think there's any danger in the market here other than a mild consolidation. But the bottom window is the VIX. Next higher window is the weekly uh actually the weekly VIX on the bottom window. Next one higher is the SPX Vix ratio which we talk a lot about. Then uh top window is the uh S&P and in a nutshell usually when you you're below uh we're when I did this graph we're at 1589. Usually anything below 17 uh is usually you got a trending market and that's the reason why I put this kind of here. So, we're not, you know, if we're up around, you know, 19 20 21, it would be a different story. But, >> uh, we got a low VIX here. And if you notice, uh, since the rally that started back in, you know, I think it was March where that low was, the VIX in general, uh, made has made higher highs. Um, normally when the uh VIX is it's not infallible, but uh if you start having a VIX go down, if you look back at the uh oh, late 200 uh 25, you have the SP going up here and actually you got the VIX actually going down here, the SPX VIX ratio. And that's the reason why I put it yellow. You got the uh S&P holding up pretty strongly with the VIX going down. And that's not happening here. Now, true, the last couple of days has been down. Where'd my thing go? Here. And the VIX has dropped a little bit along with the S&Ps, but there's no bearish divergence here. So, you know, look at a smaller window here. Here's the U SP. This is today's trading there. Um, he did have volume kind of going down, which I did see uh with the market kind of going up. So, you got a little probably wedge pattern. Um, can it go down to this line here? You know, it's a possibility, but I think that's the worst case scenario. Uh, the VIX in general didn't even give a a bearish divergence at this minor pull back we had the last three days. Kind of just stayed up. Um, here's another indicator that I don't think we're going far. Um, this is momentum indicator. Uh, the top windows, the RSI, it gets up around 80. uh it's usually never the last high you got that much momentum to the upside normally at minimum you go back and and test that high and on the test of that high when you hit 80 if it fails to get uh if it fails to get above 60 is when trouble can happen in the market and uh we did get up to 80 right at it anyhow back I don't know what April probably May June somewhere in that time frame and the market kind of went sideways we broke out again we did hit 67. Um so I I I think we got a mild consolidation but you know these times when you failed to get above 60 that was a top back in uh 2021. Uh this was uh the top we had last year early last year to get above uh then this pullback we had beginning of the year. You can see the RSI you know had trouble getting through 60. So, I think we got 67. So, I don't think this is a top of of an inconsequence other than maybe a test of a previous high. Uh, here's another indicator I'm kind of working on. It seems to work pretty well. Uh, this is the SPIX. This is weekly again. This is the the SPX to bond ratio. So, it's tilt, which is the bond ratio. And if you notice back here, uh, this is probably 2025. and the S&Ps were making higher highs. This ratio, the equity to bond market was making lower highs. Uh kind of going up in here. That's fine. Here the ratio broke below the mid Ballinger band and that would have been a good place to short to market. >> Uh recently >> Yeah. So the Ballinger bands really are kind of important here. We're a long ways from the Ballinger band, not even close to it, but the S&P ratio in general was making higher highs. Now, we're down a little bit, but we did make a higher high yesterday in the or last or this week. And last week, we made a higher high. And if you notice last two weeks, we kind of gone sideways on the S&P. And if right now, we're below last. So, this is a weekly two weeks ago, below the last two weeks high where the ratio is still above the last two weeks high, which is two weeks ago. This is high right here. It's the high I'm talking about. So you're below the high here now. You're still higher here. So that's a positive divergence. So you got another indicator >> on a weekly time frame. You can actually see it better over here. I guess this is two weeks ago. If you notice we're there, you know, today's trading were below the previous high. So if this ratio turns out to be a leading indicator, um even though we may have a minor pullback here, this pullback, I don't think it's going to go far. So I'm thinking uh turn around here is you know I don't know this week today's what Tuesday um you know turn around Tuesday that's today you know I don't see any trend uh trend right now suggesting today's the low and volume is going to be a little bit higher than yes or yesterday's volume so we may have a little bit more follow through but I don't think uh we're going to at max I I think we're where's my deal But you know, we we'll basically test the previous highs which is at the 7,600 range. So that's the max downside and we may not reach that. So um we got another minute here. You want to go to the gold market? >> Sure. Talk about this for the TL the TLT cuz it is pretty remarkable how resilient the equity markets are right now at a time when the TLT has been dropping in price cuz yields are going up, right? So that top part, you know, you know, when I see that, it's like, man, if it's that strong when we have the the TLT going down in price, which will help out the S&P 500x TLT ratio, right? Then boy, it's it's it's an underlying strength that that you know, and yields, they can't keep rising like this for, and I say that as in it's just been a heck of a run. So maybe if yields calm down a bit, you get you get the follow through there because um does that not does it worry you, but it's it's a pretty lofty yield number we're dealing with, man. The 10 years at 47, right? And all the headlines about the 30-year, does that give you any any not pause, but how do you do you think about that or do you just look at those ratios of how the market's performing to how bonds are performing? >> Yeah, I don't try, you know, I try to interpret it. I really don't try to I try to keep the opinions away from the market, you know, my own opinions. So, you know, in this scenario, I'm surprised Mark, you know, I feel kind of bearish here, but I'm not getting any indicators to confirm that bearishness. So, I'm staying long. That's how it >> So, pretty cool. Yeah. Hey, listen. And and like you said, the VIX, you know, it's elevated, but we're under 16. So, nothing no more no real yet. >> We're coming back talking medals, folks. We'll be back with Tim. Stay tuned. [music] >> Welcome back, folks. S&P is off 50, NASDAQ 100 off 510 right now. We're talking with Tim Ward, author of the Oracle. You can check out his website, folks. Orphanoracle.com. And as I always say, many of these ratios we talk about two great webinars at tfn.com right under that services tab. Check those out as well. All right, Tim, we getting into metals. I see the GDX up there. >> Metals. >> All right, this is this I'm kind of becoming more of a momentum uh I like panic in the market and I like momentum. It seem those two indicators pretty much cover what the market will do. I'll put it that way. >> Sure. >> And anyhow, the bottom window uh is the is a 71day or no 79 day average of the up down volume. Next uh which is uh the bottom window here. Next window is the uh 50-day average of the up down volume. That's for GDX. And next one is 62day average of the up down volume. Now, I looked at the advance decline for GDX, but the up down volume seems to work better. So, that's the one I'm kind of concentrate on. And so far, it's done a really pretty good job of of of defining where the lows are. And anyhow, um, and all three of them have kind of a different oversold levels. The 79 day average, anything below 10 is bullish. The 50-day average is minus 20. And I think this one here is a 15 minus 15 is when it's oversold. So all the blue lines here when all three of them reached their oversold levels. And uh it comes pretty close. You know, this has been bullish since basically mid July. And if you go back and look, July 17th was the bottom and it kind of just stayed there for a little bit, but the downside was nothing. And that's pretty much so this gets down but you can get make a a minor lower low but when these two all these three different type moving average of the up down volume reach their oversold levels that means the decline is over. It may flip sideways a little bit but in general uh the decline's over and to determine when the rally starts is when all when three of these or all three of these indicators turn up. Obviously the 62day one is really turning up strong here. So >> yeah, >> according to this chart, you seen the bottom. Now the uptrend has begun because this thing doesn't go up and down. Once it gets oversold, that's it. If you look over the back, I mean it you you see some consolidations, but you don't go back down and test the lows again. So uh we started an uptrend. Um most of these uptrends last uh you know at least 6 months, you know, sometimes even longer, a year. Uh this one started in January 2025. You know, the top came in at uh what March of uh 2026. So that was over a year rally. Uh it went down for 6 months or thereabouts and now we turned back up again. But a minimum we should rally for the next 6 months which takes us into February. A lot of times there's seasonality periods around March for gold. So we may rally into March. I don't know. So, we'll we'll see how it works out. Actually, it could be an anniversary date cuz it was a March high. So, I think March of next year could be u something to watch. I guess I'll put it that way. >> And that would be nice after that run to 5600 as in, you know, giving it a year to breathe possibly cuz that was just such a stratospheric run. I mean, I just put it back on three threeyear weekly. You go from 1,800 to 5600. If it takes us a year to get back there, that's that's a pretty sweet deal all things considered in terms of heck of a run. Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, here's u, here's kind of a different I use a lot of different approaches. Uh, this is a downs sloping wedge. Reason why because the market went down and hit new lows. It got kind of messy in here, but the volume just totally went out of out of whack. You need to for the market to continue lower, you need an increase in volume. And it didn't happen here. If you know I was here these volume bars down at the lows were just nothing compared to what it was a year. Yeah. So the whole thing was a falling wedge. Yeah. Falling wedge. You have to have a sign of So I drew I drew the pattern you know to connect the highs, connect the lows and it goes out and it's an apex and you have to have a sign of strength breaking that downtrend line. And there it was. So you had a strength. Now we're kind of consolidating. You got support around 85 here which is actually 80 to 85. I don't know if we'll get in that range or not. Uh we may or may not but we did have a sign of strength that went from looks like about 72 73 to >> I don't know call it 90 I don't know roundoff numbers 73. >> It's a textbook case right as that's how you want to see it man for sure you know no doubt about it as in breaking out from that whole area. Definitely. >> Yeah. So you had a sign of strength. So maybe so this pattern is confirmed. Uh so how high is high? Well, a minimum should get back to the previous high and it may go uh longer. But here's here's an indicator. Uh we can go back to this in a minute, but I want to talk about this a little bit. Uh we talked about it before. You know, this is a big indicator. It's a monthly uh it's a monthly GDX. Goes back a long time. Looks like about 2006. And um it's kind of a leading indicator. If you notice here, you know the bottom window is the monthly GDXG ratio. And a lot of times that leads the market. If you notice here that uh this market was going up. This is GDX on monthly time. And this indicator is going right through the floor. Yeah. Same happened at the 2011 high. It kind of sideways up. This indicator is going right through the floor. We built a base on this indicator from about 2014 to where we are right now. And if you notice, we went fromund roundoff numbers 120 to to 70. So, uh, that I forgot that retracement that was around 40 well it's a 38.2% retracement cuz there it is right there. So, it did almost a 40% retracement. This did like a 17% retracement. Okay. >> The money was going down. this indicator held strong. Uh if you notice, it really hadn't changed over the since mid last year to current mid 2025 to mid 2026. For about a year, this indicator stayed around two. So, we're not backing away from the high. The high on this indicator is approximate, give or take, just round off numbers, call it two. And we're not backing away from this high. In my opinion, we're probably eating through this high and we're going to go up break out of this sideways trading range. I've said this before and I think we're going to go back up to this this range up in here uh which is four or four. We're at 02 give or take right now. So that would mean um what I'm saying is at a minimum we get back to the previous highs which is around call it 120. Uh we'll have to see what happens there. But if this indicator is above this high right here and say we're up here somewhere, say we're at uh I don't know 0.25, you know, 26 somewhere in there and we're breaking above this high, that means GDX will break above this high. You get what I'm talking about? >> Yes. Or do you want me to go back and explain that again? >> No. No. GDX. >> Yeah. And the ratio too in terms of the equities versus the metal accelerating as we get and and folks that just doesn't mean that the GDX may double. That just means it's going to double versus the GLD. And so you're saying that, you know, you you're you're likely and and I don't want to put words, but you're likely to get a GLD appreciation as well and then the GDX may be taken off from there. Is is that what you're would that make sense, Tim, on what you're saying? >> Yeah. What I'm saying is, so, so I'm I'm watching this this rally. Uh, I'm getting too many things going here. >> I tell you what, for one more and we'll finish this thought. >> All right. >> All right. We're going to come back and finish this thought, folks. All right. Um because Yeah. No, this is And I there's so much strength right now and I just want to hear you walk through and I'm sure the listeners do too. One more time on that GDXGLD. Folks, we got an S&P negative by 51. We got a GDX pulling back a bit today. 8924 and we're coming back with Tim. Be right. [music] Welcome back, folks. S&P is negative by 53, NASDAQ 100 almost by off 530. And we're talking with Tim Ward, folks, author of the order Oracle. And I just didn't want to rush you there at the end, Tim. Um, but I understand. So, looking at the GDXGLD, it's held up so well, right? Is that what you're saying? That it's indicating that you you have a GDX that's going to appreciate. >> But then to take it one step further, if the GDX >> is appreciating, then you're talking about you're still going to rise to that level of the equities it being at 4%, which wouldn't mean it have to be double whatever the GLD is doing at that time, right? >> Well, what I'm saying is here, so so if we rally and we just go back on GDX and and match the previous highs of 117. Yeah, GDX GDXGLD ratio a lot of times leaves the market just like these last tops, you know, the uh back here, you know, when even though GDX was making, you know, testing it previous highs, the ratio is not near breaking its previous highs. >> Here I'm saying the opposite going to happen. >> GDX uh GDX uh GX GLD is going to lead the way. >> Okay. So this once say we go up to 100 on on um or say say 105 on GDX and this ratio gets up to 0.25 which is above its previous high. >> Okay. >> So now you got GDX GLD um out or making higher highs as GDX has not made higher highs. So it's leading way to the upside. So, so if we get back to the previous highs here on GDX and this ratio is up around.3, that means the previous high is not going to be resistance. It's going to keep going. >> I love it. Perfect. >> So, does that make sense? >> It sure does, man. Totally. There's a lot. And hey, there's a lot of strength. I can see, you know, there really is. And and to me, I know you don't look, you know, the dollar looks the dollar looks a little weak right now. Even with higher yields, the dollar just uh so that that may help. I know that's on an aside, but yeah. So, you know, we're going to see this chart more often going forward, and we're going to watch exactly what happens as we go forward, cuz this this will be a key indicator how high G is going to go. It's going to >> appreciate it so much, man, and we look forward to talking to you on Thursday. All right. Thanks so much. Have a great night, safe night. Thanks for being