August 18th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] >> The following is a presentation of TCNN. [music] >> [music] >> The Tom O'Brien show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. >> Let's go to Ben in San Jose. Ben, what's going on, brother? >> Hey, Tom. How you doing, man? >> I'm doing great, man. Yourself? >> I just wanted to thank you and your team and everything. I've been using your [music] technique with the 10-minute charts, watching the Vix, and uh just making a fortune here on the futures. >> Isn't it interesting? That's awesome, man. >> It's wonderful. Thanks, Tom. I appreciate it. >> Have a great one. Have a safe one. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. >> [music] >> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TCNN. We got a risk-off day with yields persisting higher. We got selling in tech stocks leading the way in the red, and we got an S&P right now approaching session lows down about 52 points or about 7/10% trading at 7717. Enough sevens in there for you? Nasdaq 100, as I said, tech stocks, chips, memory, semis trading lower today. The Nasdaq 100 off 1.7% or 512 points, 29,583. You got a Dow down just 2/10% off 110 points, 53,434. And a Russell off by 1.2% 3,028. We jump over to crude. So, crude's part of the issue here. Okay? We hit a high of 8507 early in the session, came back tested that level at about 11:30. We've backed off a bit, but crude up by 45 pennies trading at 8420 right now. I mentioned yields. You jump over the 10-year. Now, we've recoiled a bit, but we're still at 4.71, folks. 4.71 on the 10-year. We're up by three ticks at 108.17. The 30-year right now recoiling a bit as well. That was the highest yield we've seen in 19 years. You hit a 107 handle. And right now, let's see if I can pull it up. We'll pull up the yield curve. Let's see. There we go. And we're talking about a 30-year right now. Sitting at 5.29. So, we're at 5.31. I think we're a little bit higher. Let's see what we got to on the highest there. As yields persistent persisting. And how high did we get? Let's see what we hit this morning. Yeah, you were all the way up on the 30-year to 5.337. 5.34, essentially. And we move almost a full point, but still sitting right about 5.3. We jump over the dollar right now. Dollar trading at 99.66. Gold pulls back. Yeah, you better believe it, man. Quite a pullback. Off $62. A little bit of fear in the market today, some selling. From 44.60 down to 44.11. And, you know, with this day in the market red, folks, they're selling the equities as well. Down 2.6% or $2.36. 89.52 in that GDX. You jump around to some of those chip stocks. So, Nvidia down 2.3%, okay? But, it's the poster boys of the memory, man. How about Micron? Down 7.5%. Now, folks, Micron. Micron. Think they're still a Excuse me, a trillion-dollar company? Are they holding on to it? Barely. 1.056 trillion. I say barely as in they have 1.1 billion shares outstanding. This thing's down 76 bucks today alone. Losing what? 83 billion dollars in market capitalization where Micron trillion I was talking to a friend earlier today saying the volatility with the market capitalization of some of these chip stocks is astounding. Now, we've come a long way since we first had a trillion-dollar company. That was in 2019. Was it Apple, I believe? But we have trillion-dollar companies now that are going 10% up, 7% down. Just remarkable. Okay, SanDisk down 10% today. Now, SanDisk is not quite a trillion-dollar company, so it's not as pronounced, but you're still talking about a $235 billion company. 146 million shares outstanding. And you're down $176. So, they lose 26 billion in market cap. Right? 10%. There you go. Quite a number on these chip stocks. Take a look at the heat map and there's your red, right? AMD, Intel off 7.3%, Marvell off 9% right now, Western Digital off 7.3. You know, you look elsewhere on this chart though, right? That's why the Dow down listed 100 points. Look at the consumer staples, okay? You have a rotation here. Healthcare, Lilly up by 3.2%. AbbVie up 3%, Johnson & Johnson up 3.1% right now. Mickey D's up 1 and a quarter percent, Netflix up 3.4. But yeah, not in the chip sector. Seagate, another one down almost 10%. Jump over the SMH's this afternoon. How's that for a pullback, man? Down 4.5% off 27 bucks. All right. And we jump around to the headlines. Tech stocks slide as the 30-year nears that 2-year, excuse me, 2-decade high. And yeah, we've bounced since there and there your indices. All right. And crude gets a little bit of a pop, but we got the 30-year near 5.3%. We got a 10-year right now. Okay? Little on the 30-year. You got a 10-year right now sitting at 4.71, folks. Okay? That's a problem. We jump over to some of the home builders right now. Yeah, Toll Brothers down another 2%. Okay, KB down almost 2% right now. You jump over to the Lennar shares down 1%. That thing rips lower. Now, what you had pre-market is you had Home Depot numbers and they were good numbers, folks. Comp sales beat the number they were looking for. You came into the opening bell up by about $7. And they sold this thing off for right on the open. Okay, so having trouble with any type of conviction when you're talking about home repairs, housing. Lowe's is up by 7/10% today. They had decent numbers. Home Depot did. They reiterated their guidance. They beat on comp sales. They beat on the top and the bottom line. Take a look at this thing on a weekly. Let's back it up a little further. There's your five-year weekly. So, we have some nice strength right where we are. You got a nice acceleration from the lows of 300 in May. That was an earning cycle ago. Right, you accelerate higher on volume. You back down on lighter volume. But, we need that confirmation of the breakout. And ideally, right, you get a breakout, you'd break above the high here, which is 350.50 and do it with some volume. Now, it's only Tuesday. You're going to get some volume this week. Cuz look at we've already done 10.2. I mean, on earnings day, you're going to do a big number. Right? Look at the two days. We're doing some big numbers right now. So, Home Depot trying to find a bid up by 4/10% but boy, they really gave it up on the open. All right, we jump over to Meta shares. And yeah, it's like a perfect for them. Tech stocks pulling back and they're on trial. Now, some of the numbers they got it thrown around in terms of 1.4 trillion. I don't know how I see necessarily that one playing out, okay? Calling it, you know, the cigarette maker moment type deal. And I'd be careful pulling it that same way. And believe me, these things are so toxic for young people especially, right? I mean, our whole generation in terms of speaking of mine. We all know we were so lucky that we didn't have to go through adolescence with the added pressure of social media. It's hard enough, folks. We all remember it, right? And then you add in the algorithms and and how they reinforce, etc., whatever it is. And so yeah, they have an issue there. But the other side of that is is that there's ways that you could do that in a healthy manner, and that's not the the case with cigarettes, you know, in the same degree. So, we all got a choice to let our kids do what we we want, even as hard as it is up to 18. So, we'll see where that ends up. But hey, they're bringing it to them, and they better believe there's a little bit of a tail risk on Meta. And Meta off by 4.2% today. S&P's off by 52. We're coming back with Basil Chapman, folks. Off >> If you [music] spend any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there're equally as many stories of these so-called Forex [music] professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. This is what sets Teddy Kexstad, [music] the Tiger Forex Report, off the riffraff. Every Monday, former Chicago Mercantile Exchange [music] member and author Teddy Kexstad releases his Tiger Forex Report newsletter, where he dives into the complex world of Forex [music] and takes time to actually teach you his methods that have made him so successful in the fast-paced [music] and rewarding world of Forex trading. Furthermore, all subscribers receive access to archive live streams of Teddy's, where he provides university-level education to help you in Forex trading. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money-back guarantee. So, what are you [music] waiting for? Forex awaits. >> The reality is that navigating financial [music] markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. [music] Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. [music] At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. >> [music] >> That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool [music] for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFNN [music] newsletters cover every aspect of the markets, so you can analyze the market before you trade. [music] Try any of our great newsletters risk-free [music] with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front [music] page of tfnn.com. TFNN, [music] educating investors. >> Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At [music] TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text, [music] either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger [music] TV live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced [music] trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. [music] From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you [music] make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFN's YouTube channel [music] and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. >> [music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P right now, negative by 51 points. And to talk about some of the market action, folks, we're going to jump over to our man, Basil Chapman. If you head on over to the front page of TFNN, folks, you'll see Basil's outstanding daily newsletter, The Opening Call. You can sign up. Now, when you sign up for Basil's daily newsletter, folks, you get a 30-day money-back guarantee. Okay, the cost is $149 a month, but you got 30 days to try it out, you get a full refund. And when you sign up, you gain access to his many webinars, and he just did one at the end of July, folks. And there it is right there, what technicals to look for and what stocks and ETFs will benefit in this second half of the year. So, you also gain access to that webinar right there, an hour and 31 minutes, folks. Basil talking about it, check out The Opening Call, some great stuff. Basil Chapman, good afternoon. >> Hi, Tommy. How are you? >> I'm doing great, man. How's it going? >> Going well, thank you. >> So, how's the weather up in Boston right now, Basil? >> Oh, it's a beautiful day. Beautiful day. We've got to count these beautiful days cuz winter will be here very soon. >> Enjoy it, last 2 weeks of August, man, totally, right? >> Absolutely, yes. >> So, what are you looking at in this market, Basil? We got a little pullback. The Dow, I always think of you when I see the Dow, and the Dow's doing pretty well today considering the context, but please, what are you looking at? >> So, I'm always looking at a buy signal that's upgraded to a buy mode that can take whatever price you're following, whatever symbol it is, to at least four higher peaks. A is the first, B is a higher one, C is the next highest, D is the third it can even go E, F, and G, but D is the objective. Well, in the Dow we added to a long position just about a few days before the big spike to the August 5th high, which went to a peak D at 54,000 7 back and it's almost as if there wasn't aberration. So, I said to subscribers this morning, we've got a momentary caution here if just there are just too many mixed areas. There were there were real good pockets of strength before. Now, it's really selective. It's kind of in the health care. I in the webinar I spoke about what what sectors seem to be doing well and could do well. So, this is these are areas that we're going to be looking to to buy on dips. But in the meantime, so that peak D is on Well, and I thought I just mentioned that the weekly chart is at peak C. That says there should still be a D to come and the monthly chart is only on leg B. So, I'll do to my show tomorrow in the Tiger Technicians hour I'll show you look here's I don't want to do that cuz there's just so much that I need to discuss right now. The S&P's pulled back from the 7816.70 high. I had a Fibonacci extension that I had for ages. I just thought I'd put it there and just let it go and forgot about it, but it had an extension to 161.8 [clears throat] to 7815.87 and the high was 7816.70 and this is leg D in the monthly, but this the technicals are still really strong and the weekly chart in the S&P's only at peak C. So, >> Okay. I have that one on my chart, too, Basil. I do. I have it on the spy. It's quite a to the 1618. Um, but I like to see, you know, of course, the weekly and as you're talking about the daily, but pretty remarkable, man. >> Um >> It is. And that was folks, not to jump in, Basil, but it's pretty remarkable that that is the the first part of that leg that you talk about, the 1 to 1.618, comes from all the way from the COVID lows, right, to the highs of 2021. And then you do a 161% of that same move. It was such a remarkable move to think that we've done 161% of that move. Anyway, I love it. Go ahead, please. It went to 20 and 21.91. >> Yeah. >> and I went to the 4816 high, uh 4816. >> to 4800, folks, is the first leg. And then we do a 1 to 1.618 of that. Pretty remarkable, man. Yeah. >> So, on that theme, I wanted to just do a couple of things. So, just looking at it. So, these are techniques that I thought I'd discuss. So, that peak D is really important. So, uh we have gold and uh silver stocks for a long time, but look at this. We added um AEM. So, I have a rule of thumb. It's just a rule of thumb. It's not really It's not like I can put it in the dictionary or anything, but it's just something in the back of my mind that is always It's always just sitting there. Stocks that are really strong that uh that go to um a leg D um it's important that you look at the technicals at that peak D. So, you have AEM, and I just thought I'd open this up a little bit, and you can see that it's doing very nicely. It's way over the 9 14 the 9 14 9 period moving averages. Way over the 14. It's way over the 200. The MACD is still strong. Stochastic flat at 92% and the on balance volume is good. So, uh we got in We we had missed this earlier to add, but we did add it recently. So, this has done very nicely. So, talking about the uh peak D's, look at this. CD uh stock that we've had is of course mining silver. We've had it from under eight, and ran to the 27s. We took a lot of profit off, kept the core position, and now it's gone from the 3093 where to a peak D, and this is the symmetry boss symmetry from that peak that was made back in June. I thought I'd go through a couple of others here. Look, talking about peak D, look, can I >> For Basil, can I just say just say so for investors out there that have quarterly, right? You see a formation like that, you're bumping up against the D point, and you're at like the top of that cup formation. Are you are you if you're in that equity, are you you holding a core position? You're a little worried that we finished kind of that symmetrical formation there and we pull back? >> It's a daily chart. This is a daily chart. On the weekly chart, you can see it's starting to improve a lot. If that nine-period moving average next week it can cross positive, that's going to be a big deal for Core Mining. So, yes, it's a good point. I just wanted to show you some others which I share. Yes, Harmony just made a peak D today because there's a lower high. What other ones did I want to show you? Um ASA is one that I always follow, South African gold gold stocks they have. There's your peak D. It's way under the previous one. So, it's kind of mixed, but I just wanted to show you the the the power of this A B C going to a D, and what you have to do there. At the same time, look at the SMH's, semiconductors, and I've been talking about this for ages since those round number highs that we saw and they're very sharp moves down. Look, this went to a peak D, popped up once yesterday to an E and look how sharp this pullback and it's way any any stock that goes to a D under a previous high has to hold that very strongly to add to that position to add to the gains of that position because that's where it becomes most vulnerable. So, that was a very good point you made earlier on. So, this is a peak E way under the 671.83 high. And you remember we spoke about Micron made a round number all-time high 112.55 on 00 on the 25th of June. Plunged to 84 804 round number, then bounced, then came back, went to 789. And yet it is a 9939. I think they deserve a well-earned rest, and I think they're going to get there. Then I just wanted to show you the >> at I can't help but look at the monthly there that has a PE right on Micron. >> Correct. Yeah, I didn't want to bring that up because the month is still young. >> [laughter] >> Okay. Okay. I'm with you. Yeah. >> This is the month the weekly chart. So, this is TBT. This is the This is yields. Ultra short even 20-year T-Bond ETF. Just spiked today, pulled back a little bit from the high. In the daily chart, it did this one this this symmetry pattern in the VL cup shape formation in the uh >> Look at that, man. >> it. It's gone to a D in the weekly, but if you look at the monthly, the monthly says, and I'll do this in my show tomorrow, it's really just more of a sideways move. What I really wanted to show you is look at this. Heating oil. Nobody seems to be talking about heating oil. Heating oil is at a high. I mean, that's Who would have thought, right? We haven't even gotten to winter and heating oil's up. So, I thought I'd bring that up. And then the other other aspect that I thought was quite important, just to put into the perspective of what I look at and what is what I find very important, is I've been talking about the XLF. That's the financial S&P financial spider fund. And I mentioned how these two were diverging and how I expected the XLF would catch Well, look at this. Here's the monthly chart of the spy and the XLF. We'll see what next next month has, but so far, they are in unison, and that's really important. >> And maybe that goes with higher yields. Those financials catch up, right? That might go right with it. Basil, thanks so much, man. Folks, check it out. Right on the front page, the opening call, you gain access to those webinars as well. We look forward to the show tomorrow, Basil. >> Thank you very much, Tommy. >> Thank you. We'll come right back, folks. >> Maurice, while this works [music] for some, it oftentimes misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. [music] But, how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening [music] call newsletter. Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman Wave Trading Methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading [music] influencers have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology in order to accurately [music] call movements in a wide range of equities, from semiconductors to uranium to key indices and so [music] much more. Basil is old school, taking the time to educate the trader while also giving his insights into [music] key indices, selective stocks, and more. Opening Call subscribers also receive access to dozens [music] of educational live streams that can be accessed at any time for your edification. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money-back guarantee. So, ignore the pop trading influencers and start learning time-tested technical analysis. >> Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost [music] 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year Award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing [music] at number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge [music] every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading [music] day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day [music] money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. [music] Visit probability 30 days risk free today. TNN educating investors. >> Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious [music] text, either. TNN airs live financial content streamed live on tnn.com and TNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8:30 a.m. to 4:00 [music] p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their [music] take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight [music] different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tnn.com or on TNN's YouTube channel and become [music] the investor you were born to be. TNN educating investors. >> This portion of the Tom O'Brien show is brought to you by Direxion Daily Leveraged and Inverse ETFs. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direxion.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the prospectus available at direxion.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. >> [music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got markets in the red. S&P's down by about 6/10%. NASDAQ 100 off 1.7% right now folks as we do each and every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time. We're going to talk to our man Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. You can reach Tim at his website ord-oracle.com. You see him right there. And don't forget if you head on over to TFN folks right under the services tab, you'll see two great webinar archives, the secret science of market tops and how to identify them as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. The Vix is in there folks. We've had some Vix action recently as well. Tim Ord, good afternoon. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Actually we're talking about the Vix. We kind of showed this last week. I don't think there's any danger in the market here other than a mild consolidation, but the bottom window is the Vix. Next higher window is the weekly actually the weekly Vix on the bottom window. Next one higher is the S&P 500 ratio which we talk a lot about and top window is the S&P 500 and in a nutshell usually when you're you're below where 50 when I did this graph where at 1589 usually anything below 17 is usually where you got a trending market. And that's the reason why I put this kind of here so we're not you know, if we're up around you know, 19 20 21 that would be a different story, but we got a low Vix here and if you notice since the rally that started back in you know, I think it was March where that low was Vix in general may has made higher highs. Normally when the Vix is is not infallible, but if you start having a Vix go down if you look back at the late 2000 uh 2005 you have the S&P going up here and you actually you the VIX actually going down here the SPX VIX ratio. That's the reason why I put it yellow. You got the SPX holding up pretty strongly with the VIX going down and that's not happening here. Now true, the last couple of days have been down. Where'd my thing go here? And the VIX has dropped a little bit along with the S&P's, but there's no bearish divergence here. So, you know, look at a smaller window here. Here is the SPX. This is today's trading there. You did have volume kind of going down, which I did see with the market kind of going up. So, you got a little probably wedge pattern. Um can it go down to this line here? Yeah, it's a possibility, but I think that's the worst-case scenario. The VIX in general didn't even give a a bearish divergence at this minor pull back we had the last 3 days. It kind of just stayed up. Um here's another indicator that I don't think we're going far. This is a momentum indicator. The top window is the RSI. It gets up around 80. Uh it's usually near the last high. You got that much momentum to the upside. Normally you have minimum you go back and and test that high. And on the test of that high when you hit 80, if it fails to get if it fails to get above 60 is when trouble can happen in the market. And we did get up to 80 right at it anyhow back I don't know what April probably May, June somewhere in that time frame and the market kind of went sideways. We broke out again. We did hit 67. Um so I I think we got a mild consolidation, but you know, these times when you fail to get above 60, that was the top back in 2021. Uh this was uh Um the top we had last year early last year, It to get above, uh then this pullback we had beginning of the year, you can see the RSI you know, had trouble getting through 60. So, I don't think we got 67. So, I don't think this is a top of of any consequence other than maybe a test of a previous high. Uh here's another indicator I'm kind of working on. It seems to work pretty well. Uh this is the SPX This is weekly again. This is the SPX yield right where it was It's the SPX to bond ratio. So, it's gilt, which is bond ratio. And if you notice back here, uh this is probably 2025, the SPs were making higher highs. This ratio, the equity to bond market was making lower highs. Uh kind of going up in here, that's fine. Here the ratio broke below the mid Bollinger band, and that would have been a good place to short the market. Uh recently Yeah, so the Bollinger bands really are kind of important. You were a long ways from the Bollinger band, not even close to it. But the SPX yield ratio in general was making higher highs. Now, we're down a little bit, but we did make a higher high yesterday. And the or last or this week, and last week we made a higher high. And if you notice last 2 weeks, we've kind of gone sideways on the SPX. And if right now, we're below last So, this is a weekly 2 weeks ago, below the last 2 weeks high where the ratio is still above the last 2 weeks high, which is 2 weeks ago, this is high right here. It's the high I'm talking about. So, you're below the high here, now you're still higher here. So, that's a positive divergence. So, you got another indicator on a weekly time frame. You can actually see it better over here, I guess. This is 2 weeks ago. If you notice you're we're there. Uh this you know, today's trading we're below the previous high. So, if this ratio turns out to be a leading indicator, um even though we may have a minor pullback here, this pullback I don't think it's going to go far. So, I'm thinking uh a turnaround here is, you know, I don't know, this week. Today is what? Tuesday? Um you know, a turnaround Tuesday as today I you know, I don't see any trend to trend right now suggesting today is a low. And the volume's going to be a little bit higher than yester or yesterday's volume. So, you may have a little bit more follow-through. But I don't think uh we're going to at max I I think we're we're Where's my deal at? You know, we'll we'll basically test the previous highs, which is at 7,600 range. So, that's the max downside. And we may not quite outreach that. So, um we've got another minute here. You want to go to the gold market? >> Sure. I was just going to say that for the the TLT cuz it is pretty remarkable how resilient the equity markets are right now at a time when the TLT has been dropping in price cuz yields are going up, right? So, that top part, you know, you know, when I see that, it's like, man, if it's that strong when we have the the TLT going down in price, which will help out the SPX TLT ratio, right? Then boy, it's it's it's an underlying strength that that, you know, and yields they can't keep rising like this for and I say that as in it's just been a heck of a run. So, maybe if yields calm down a bit, you get you get the follow-through there because um does that not does it worry you, but it's it's a pretty lofty yield number we're dealing with, man. The 10-year is at 4.7, right? And all the headlines about the 30-year. Does that give you any any not pause, but how do you do you think about that or do you just look at those ratios of how the market's performing and how bonds are performing? >> Yeah, I don't trade you know, I try to interpret it. I really don't try to I try to keep opinions away from the market, you know, my own opinions. >> Sure. >> So, you know, in this scenario, I'm surprised markets, you know, I feel kind of bearish here, but I'm not getting any indicators to confirm that bearishness, so I'm staying long. That's how I'm looking >> Okay. >> at it, you know. So, >> Pretty cool. >> Yeah, hey, >> Listen, and and like you said, the VIX, you know, it's elevated, but we're under 16, so nothing no no real fear of inflation yet. Well, coming back talking metals, folks, we'll be back with Tim. Stay tuned. >> If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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Just visit [music] the front page of tfnn.com. >> This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> I'm Orion. >> Welcome back, folks. S&P's off 50, Nasdaq 100 off 510 right now. We're talking with Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. You can check out his website, folks, ord-oracle.com. And as I always say, many of these ratios we talk about. Two great webinars at tfn.com right under that services tab. Check those out as well. All right, Tim. We getting into metals? I see the GDX up >> metals. >> All right. This is This I'm kind of becoming more of a momentum I like panic in the market and I like momentum. I seem those two indicators pretty much cover what the market will do up and down. >> Sure. >> And anyhow, the bottom window uh is the is a 71-day or no, 79-day average of the up-down volume. Next which is the bottom window here. Next window is the 50-day average of the up-down volume. That's for GDX and next one in 62-day average of the up-down volume. Now, I looked at the advance-decline for GDX, but the up-down volume seems to work better. So, that's what I'm kind of concentrating on and so far it's done a a really pretty good job of defining where the lows are. Anyhow, uh and they all three of them kind of different oversold levels. The 79-day average anything below 10 is bullish. The 50-day average is minus 20 and I think this one here is a 15 minus 15 is when it's oversold. So, all the blue lines here when all three of them reach their oversold levels and uh comes pretty close. You know, this has been bullish since basically mid-July. And if you go back and look, July 17th was the bottom. And it kind of just stayed there for a little bit, but the downside was nothing. And that's pretty much So, this gets down, but you can get make a a minor lower low, but when these two all these three different type moving average of the up-down volume reach their oversold levels, that means the decline is over. It may flip sideways a little bit, but in general uh the decline is over. And to determine when the rally starts is when all when three of these all three of these indicators turn up. Obviously, the 62-day one is really turning up strong here. So >> Yeah. >> according to this chart, you're seeing the bottom. Now the uptrend has begun cuz this thing doesn't go up and down. Once it gets oversold, that's it. If you look over the back, I mean, it you see some consolidations, but you don't go back down and test the lows again. So, uh, we started an uptrend. Um, most of these uptrends last, uh, yeah, at least 6 months, you know, sometimes even longer, a year. Uh, this one started in January 2025. Yeah, the top came in at um, what, March of, uh, 2026. So, that was over a year rally. Uh, it went down for 6 months or thereabouts. So, now we're turned back up again. But at minimum, we should rally for the next 6 months, which takes us into February. A lot of times there's seasonality periods around March for gold. So, we may rally into March. I don't know. So, we'll we'll see how it works out. Actually, it could be an anniversary date cuz it was a March high. So, I think March of next year could be, uh, something to watch. I guess I'll put it that way. >> Okay. And that'd be nice after that run to 5600 as in, you know, given it a year to breathe possibly cuz that was just such a stratospheric run. I mean, I just put it back on three three-year weekly. You go from 1800 to 5600. If it takes us a year to get back there, that's that's a pretty sweet deal all things considered in [clears throat] terms of a heck of a run, yeah. >> Yeah, so, uh, here's uh, here's kind of a different I use a lot of different approaches. Uh, this is a down sloping wedge. Reason why? Because the market went down and hit new lows. It got kind of messy in here, but the volume just totally went out of out of whack. You need did for the market to continue lower, you need an increase in volume. And it didn't happen. Can you hear if you notice here these volume bars down at the lows were just nothing compared to what it was >> Yeah, nothing. Totally. >> year before. Yeah, so the whole thing was a falling [snorts] wedge. Yeah, falling wedge you have to have a sign it's It's like I drew I drew the pattern, you know, connect the highs, connect the lows, and it goes out in a snake apex. And you have to have a sign of strength breaking that downtrend line. And there it was. So you had a strength. Now we're kind of consolidating. You got support around 85 here, which is actually 80 85. I don't know if we'll get in that range or not. We may or may not, but we did have a sign of strength that went from looks like about 72 73 to I don't know, call it 90. I don't know, round off number, 73 to 90. >> textbook case, right? As in that's how you want to see it, man, for sure. You know, no no doubt about it as in breaking out from that whole area, definitely. >> Yeah, so you had a sign of strength. So me so this pattern is confirmed. So how high is high? What a minimum should get back to the previous high, and it may go longer, but here's here's an indicator. We can go back to this in a minute, but I want to talk about this a little bit. We talked about it before, you know, this is a big indicator. It's a monthly It's a monthly GDX. Goes back a long time. I'm looks like about 2006. And it's kind of leading indicator. If you notice here, you know, the bottom window is the monthly GDX GLD ratio. And a lot of times that leads the market. If you notice here that this market was going up, this is GDX on monthly time, and this indicator's going right through the floor. Yeah, same happened at the 2011 high. Kind of sideways up. This indicator's going right through the floor. We build a base on this indicator from about 2014 to where we are right now. And if you notice, we went from 100 round off numbers 120 to to 70. So, I forgot that retracement. That was around 40 Well, it's a 38.2% retracement cuz there it is right there. So, it did almost a 40% retracement. This did like a 17% retracement. >> Okay. >> market's going down, this indicator held strong. If you notice, it really hadn't changed over the since mid last year to current mid 2025 to mid 2026. For about a year, this indicator has stayed [clears throat] around two. So, we're not backing away from the high. The high on this indicator is approximately, give or take, just round off numbers, call it two, and we're not backing away from this high. In my opinion, we're probably eating through this high, and we're going to go up, break out of this sideways trading range. I've said this before, and I think we're going to go back up to this this range up in here. Uh which is four or 0.4. We're at 0.2, give or take, right now. So, that would mean um what I'm saying is we At a minimum, we get back to the previous highs, which is around call it 120. Uh we'll have to see what happens there, but if this indicator is above this high right here, and say we're up here somewhere say we're at uh I don't know, point point 25, you know, point 26, somewhere in there, and we're breaking above this high, that means GDX will break above this high. Do you get what I'm talking about? >> Yes. >> Or do you want me to go back and explain that again? >> No, no, I get it. Yeah. >> Okay. And the ratio, too, in terms of the equities versus the metal accelerating as we get and And folks, that just doesn't mean that the GDX may double. That just means it's going to double double versus the GLD. And so you're saying that you know, you're you're you're likely and and you're and I don't want to put words, but you're likely to get a GLD appreciation as well and then the GDX maybe taken off from there. Is it Is that what you're did would that make sense to him and what you're saying? >> Yeah, what I'm saying is so so I'm I'm watching this this rally. I'm getting too many things going here is >> I tell you what, can you hang with us for one more and we'll finish this thought? >> All right. We do that. >> All right. We're going to come back and finish this thought folks, all right? Um because yeah, no, this isn't I There's so much strength right now and I just want to hear you walk through and I'm sure the listeners do too. One more time on that GDX GLD. Folks, we got an S&P negative by 51. We got a GDX pulling back a bit today, 8924 and we're coming back with Tim. 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Try any of [music] our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. >> [music] >> Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfnn.com. TFNN [music] educating investors. >> Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. >> Welcome back folks. S&P is negative by 53, Nasdaq 100 almost by a 530 and we're talking with Tim Or folks author of the Or Oracle. And I just didn't want to rush you there at the end Tim. Um, but I understand. So looking at the GDX GLD it's held up so well, right? Is that what you're saying that it's indicating that you have a GDX that's going to appreciate? But then to take it one step further if the GDX is appreciating then you're talking about you're still going to rise to that level of the equities that being a point 4% which wouldn't mean it'd have to be double whatever the GLD is doing at that time, right? >> Well, what I'm saying is here is so so if we rally and we just go back on GDX and and match the previous highs at 117 >> Okay. >> and GDX GDX GLD ratio a lot of times leads the market just like these last tops you know the uh back here you know that what even though GDX was making you know testing its previous highs the ratio is not near breaking its previous highs. >> Big time. >> Here what I'm saying is the opposite's going to happen. GDX uh GDX uh GX GLD is going to lead the way. >> Okay. >> So this once say we go up to 100 on on um or say say 105 on GDX and this ratio gets up to 0.25 which is above its previous high. >> Okay. >> So now you got GDX GLD um out are making higher highs as GDX has not made higher highs. So, it's leading the way to the upside. So, so if we get back to the previous highs here on GDX and this ratio is up around 0.3, that means the previous high is not going to be resistance. It's going to keep going. I love it. Perfect. So, is that make sense? It sure does. Totally. There's a lot of And hey, there's a lot of strength. I could see it, you know, there really is and and to me, I know you don't look, you know, the dollar looks the dollar looks a little weak right now. Even with higher yields, the dollar just uh so, that that may help then. I know that's in the side, but yeah. So, you know, we're going to see this chart more often going forward and we're going to watch exactly what happens as we go forward cuz this this will be a key indicator how high GDX is going to go. It's going to stop at 17. >> man. And we look forward to talking on Thursday, all right? Thanks so much, folks. Have a great day.