August-17th Steve Rhodes on The Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

Welcome back, folks. S&Ps right now almost at the lows of the session, down about 30 points or 410%. We got a NASDAQ slightly in the red. And right now, folks, as we do each and every Monday at 3:15, we're going to jump over and talk to our man Steve Rhodess. You can check out Steve's outstanding daily program, folks. The Trader Edge, live 11:00 a.m. Eastern time on Tiger TV every trading day right here with TFN and his daily trading newsletter, folks. Mastering probability right at TFN under the newsletter tab. You can sign up. It's $149 a month, folks. It comes with a 30-day money back guarantee. You get full access to the month. It comes with some great webinars in there. It comes with that 30-day money back guarantee, so you get to experience the whole month with nothing to risk. Check it out, folks. We got quite a market right now. Steve Rhodess, good afternoon. >> Hi, Tommy. How are you today? >> I'm doing great, man. How's uh how's the beautiful east coast of Florida doing? >> It's hot. >> It is definitely hot, baby. Toasty. It is very [laughter] hot. I know. >> My AC, all of our AC's, man. I had an AC guy out to one place, Steve, last week, and I had an AC guy to another place uh today. And uh so those as I walk through my neighborhood, all I see are air conditioning trucks. Literally, there's not. And folks, if you you know, you're only supposed to run the air conditioning 20 degrees under what it's the outside temperature. I get this, you know, and that's almost impossible when you're pushing 104 degrees in. I exaggerate, but it's hot. >> That's true. That's true. That's true. >> So, hey, what do you think about this market, man? A little bit of a pullback today, but I say little, man. We are right near all-time highs. What do you think, Steve? Please. >> Well, I tell you what I what I what I decided to do today was I'm I'm starting where I left off and and I may not have enough time for the full segment. Um uh but we we'll figure that out from from you know we'll figure that out. But where I left off, the last thing that I did during the last um uh during the last couple of minutes of the segment was I had punched up the QQEW. That's what I've got on my screen right now. >> So everybody should be looking that QQEW is the equal weighted ETF for the NASDAQ 100 or for the Q's. And I have maintained for years and years that the equated ETFs are the ones that really point the true direction. Now, I hadn't opened up the uh the equated ETFs last week. I don't know why I didn't, but I didn't. What I realized when I opened it up this morning, if we take a look at the daily time frame chart, that's on the lefth hand side. This green candle, that was Thursday. It negated a TD9 count top. It's at all-time highs. It's above profile resistance at 163. It's above its green oscillator and change line for its daily time frame, for its weekly time frame. And the weekly's got no uh topping pattern. The weekly negated ATD9 count topped last week. and the monthly chart, we're at all-time highs. There's no topping signals whatsoever. So, when I saw this chart and I maintain that uh belief that the equated ETFs are the ones that point the true direction, well, then I said, "Okay, now I know what I'm going to do for the next couple of hours and hopefully be able to get some of this done before I uh sit sit with you for a few minutes." So, what I'm going to do here, >> I heard you talking about in the dent just so saying I that uh look at that equal weight accuse major breakout. I was pulling it up towards the end of your program. So, I love it, man. Go for it. Yeah. >> Yeah. And actually, what I want to show folks here, um, I meant to do this, too. It's just, let me show what I'm looking at here. So, the right hand side is the Q's. You can see that the Q's formed a TD9 count top back on June the 3 and we're at new alltime highs. If you go all the way over in the I mean, we're off the new alltime highs. We made it, you know, a couple days ago in the QQEW. So, now let me show you what my study >> with the equal weighted, right? Much higher talking about. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And that's an it's an important message because it tells you that underneath the surface things are very strong. Yeah. Maybe you got light volume, but it's summertime, all that kind of stuff. Okay. But on equal weighted, this is telling us that things are very strong underneath the surface. That's not what you typically would see in a market that uh people are expecting some type of decline. So, what I did was the equated ETF began April 25th, 2006. So that's my beginning date that I have to be able to test the study. And the study is said the first the first portion of the study was um basically if the QQEW is at new all-time highs, you know, and the Q is not, what happens? Because that's the situation that we have now. So there were 70 since since April 25th of 2006, there have been 76 events where the QEW was making a new all-time high, but the Q's were not. In 76 of those 76 instances, >> the Q's made a new all-time high later subsequent. Okay, that's important. Now, on average, it was about two and a half days. >> Um, the average, you know, the average time between 2 and a half to 11 basic trading days. Where we're at right now, today's day number 49. >> All right, so just kind of throw that out there. But within within 10 trading days, 60 of the 76 resolved themselves 80 that was 80% of the time. 81% in 20 uh 88% in 30. Uh but there has never been a bare market and we'll use the bare market Tommy as a 20% decline. So we'll just use that as a you know which is pretty common out there. Yep. >> There's never been a bare market that started when the QQ was at an all-time high and the Q's were not. >> Okay. >> So even though I may not have enough information to fill up our entire segment here, I'm not done by the way. Um that's important for everybody that's that's out there. Now whether they want to use my information or not, this is this is factually correct. And people can go back and do their own studies as well. This took me several hours to do this, >> right? Can't can't argue with statistics, man. Not to jump in, but I agree. I love it totally. >> It's just stats. It's spreadsheets and then just kind of create, you know, this. So, this is the major top evidence. So, I went back to the Q's. Again, I can only go back to 2005 to really test this out. Um, but here are the major tops. And in these major tops, I show when the Q's made their top, when the QQ made its top. Now, this is really important because before because what we have here is you can see that um the the QQ is making its top before the Q's or it's making on the same day, but it's never made it later. >> Yeah, >> let me restate that. The Q the Q's, okay, have when the QQ makes an all-time high, the QQW, the equal weighted, the Q's eventually catch up. they have always where we are right now which is which is what you just showed us basically on that chart if it plays out right >> that that is correct so I I went even you know I mean that this is this is really important information I believe for everybody in the audience >> that's listening in because there are a lot of folks and I get the emails all the time about the market's going to crash this that and the other thing and I try to respond to those as best as I can this is the most I was amazed when I saw that first when I saw that the chart this morning you know as we're going into the noon time when the when the show was closing and I had to go back and say, "Okay, I really need to go run the study. Make sure that you know what I'm sharing with the audience is accurate. I don't want to misstate anything. I don't want to mislead anyone out there, but this is the statist the statistical data, you know, and here, by the way, here's here's the spies. Here's on the lefth hand side, you got the spy and you got the equal weighted. They're pretty similar. All right, so if you got the Dow diamonds, they're pretty similar and they all topped on the same day. Made the all-time highs in August 5th. So, it's typically how it works. There were nine other completed um incidents where there was more. So because we're at 50 days, today is day number 50. I went back and tested 40 days. Uh and if we take a look at so there were instances where we've gone beyond 40 days out here. And in every one of those instances we in 2024 was 66 days. Um that in every one of these instances, Tommy, the Q's have caught up to the QQW and made a new alltime high. >> Look at that. You're gonna you're gonna have me remembering this one, Steve, for sure. And history doesn't repeat, folks. But what does it say? It rhymes, right? It definitely rhymes, man. As in totally. That's pretty cool. >> I I mean, is this time different? Hey, look, you know, we got a war going on as you're talking. We got all kinds of stuff. So, you know, but this includes even the flash crash. >> I thought even the flash crash, I might >> That's a lot of data, man. That is a lot of data in there. You're not You're not even going back to like 2020 where CO could have distorted thing. You're going back, man, for sure. >> Yeah. As far as far as far as I possibly can. So what we what we can say is since 2005 when the QQEW makes new all-time high, the Q's have always followed and have never gotten into a bare market. And so I think that's an important statistic for folks to understand. >> Hey, maybe Microsoft, right? Maybe Meta, maybe some of those biggest equities that have been trailing, maybe they're going to pick it up. You know, we'll see. But it's pretty remarkable some rotation in this market. And you see it, I mean, whether it's Microsoft, right, Meta, um Apple's on a little bit of a pullback even, you know, right? So there's some room there for those Steve, great information, man. Appreciate the break statistics. Folks, you want it every day. Sign up for Mastering Probability. You get a 30-day money back guarantee. You can be in there right now by the time we're off of this commercial break checking it out. Steve, thanks so much, man. Look forward to the show tomorrow. Thanks, Tommy. >> Thank you, folks. Come right back.