August 13th, Tim Ord Interview on the Tom O'Brien Show - 2026

[music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P looking to close at a record price up 7/10% Nasdaq up 1 and 1/4% right now. And right now, folks, as we do each and every Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Eastern time, we're going to talk to Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. You can check out Tim's website at ord-oracle.com. You see him right there. And right in front page of TFNN, folks, you hit the services tab, you'll see two great webinars. The secret signs of market tops, how to identify market tops, as well as six secret ratios every trader should know. The Vix is an important part of some of those ratios, and we got quite a Vix today. Tim Ord, good afternoon. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Uh, you know, this market kind of surprised, you know, that we're in the weakest quarter of the year, and this market's not really showing any signs of weakness. Um, the first Uh, the bottom window here is the Vix. A- Actually, uh, this coming in somewhere around 15, or actually it looks like about 14. I can't quite tell. But anything below 17 is it's usually a kind of I got a trending market. Uh, for some reason it's you can't see it there. But uh, I got I got a green area, I got a yellow area, and I got a pink area. Okay, the green area is when the uh, weekly S This is a weekly chart both on the uh, SPX and uh, the SPX Vix ratio. Anyhow, the the top window here is this window here is the uh, weekly uh, SPX, and when below it is the weekly SPX Vix ratio. The green areas are when times when both the Vix is above the uh, Bollinger Bollinger band the weekly Bollinger band and the S&P's are above the mid uh, the mid Bollinger band. The yellow area is when the SPX is above the mid Bollinger band, and the SPX is below the Bollinger Band, so that's like a warning sign. Um So, yeah, we're back to green here, and we got a little yellow right here. Uh the yellow turns into to pink when both of them fall below the mid Bollinger Band. Well, back in uh it looks like about a month earlier, the SPX VIX ratio fell below mid Bollinger Band. It did back here, but the SP stayed above mid Bollinger Band. So, it went from yellow to green, and went back to yellow when both of them are below the mid Bollinger Band, that's the pink area. That's when declining markets you got. So, that happened there. >> [snorts] >> You got another yellow area here, the Bollinger Band or the SPX was above the mid Bollinger Band, uh but the yellow area, the SPX fell below the Bollinger Band. And so, then you get that in pink area when both of that's uh below the mid Bollinger Band, and that's when the declines happen. Right now, uh you got the uh weekly SPX above the mid Bollinger Band, and you got the SPX VIX ratio above the mid Bollinger Band. So, trend's up. Normally, uh the SPX VIX ratio will fall below mid Bollinger Band to give you a warning sign. Will that turn into a sell signal? It will turn into a sell signal when the SPX falls below the mid Bollinger Band. Okay. So, right now uh there's neither one. Uh this is the daily SPY. Uh you had a sign of strength right here above the previous highs. These are previous highs here, the June July highs. >> [snorts] >> And you went above them, and uh you had a sign of strength, and you kind of went sideways for a days. Now, we're going higher. And uh the ratio more or less uh this is a daily SPX VIX ratio down here. More or less, you're still hitting new highs here. >> Yeah. >> Uh so, uh haven't seen any signs of a of a of a top. And I Here's another indicator that works pretty well. Uh, the top window is the RSI uh, 14. And I I put areas of This chart goes back to looks like about late 2020. So, it's quite a few years. I marked the areas in pink the times when the uh, uh, RSI 14 fails to get above uh, 60. Which is that line right here. >> So, um, so, you can see here you topped out around 60. That was a top. You topped out around 60 there. Uh, right around 60 there. Another 60 right here. Well, we're at 67.89. I think we're a little bit higher than that right now. I rounded it off, called it 68. So, we're kind of way above uh, above a danger area on RSI. >> Okay. >> So, trend's up. So, >> Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I don't And the VIX So, the VIX is is Let me ask you the The VIX Is it pretty important the VIX overall because of those ratios that that you look at, Tim? I mean, they can drive a lot of the action in terms of the SPY VIX and how it leads it. We have a VIX at 14.69 right now. >> Yeah. >> And it's only been lower, like, you know, going back to last year, like, a few days around Christmas, Tim. Like like I'm talking about like Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas when you hit 13.38, which is a pretty remarkable statement the last year that that's the only thing that has less of a you know, a lower VIX a VIX. >> Yeah. Yeah, there's just you know, sometimes the VIX will give you Looking at this chart again, you know, the VIX uh, this was uh, 2024. You know, it got dangerous here, but nothing happened to the market. Market just kept staying above the mid Bollinger Band. But, you know, the VIX is not even close to giving a warning. You know, we're hitting a new uh on the S&P 500 ratio and weekly time frame, we're hitting higher highs right here. The ratio is >> Yeah. >> uh keeps going up. >> Pretty impressive. Yeah. >> Yeah, so the VIX usually gives a warning and and there's not even a warning sign here. And momentum usually peaks out before the market peaks out. Well, momentum really staying strong, which is you know, another way to measure our momentum is the RSI. You know, we're not going to go over 70. >> Yeah. >> So, that's not usually an area where uh tops occur. So, how high is high? I don't know. I had one point where this uh you know, let me get back uh let's see uh this one. This you know, I I thought this this sideways range here uh you know, the trading range on on a bigger time frame you know, you can maybe see it here better. This trading range right here was the halfway point of the next move up. >> Okay. >> So, if you take the bottom of here and you measure to there and you add it up, it comes up around 860. So, you know, maybe that's going to be true. I don't know. >> Yeah. >> You don't want to be short cuz uh there's several different indicators according to the VIX and according to the RSI, uh this market wants to go higher. And also, if you notice yeah, yesterday we had a trend close of 1.28. So, we're actually rallying and the market is showing a little bit of panic on the rally. So, that's also a good sign. So, >> Yeah. >> uh you know, um >> What do you What do you think about the volume? And And I agree with everything you're saying, but you know, in this How do you step in front of a market this strong with nobody paying No, there's no sellers here, man, at all. Um what do you think about the volume? I was looking cuz yeah, you you pointed it out the great strength it had on kind of the run at the beginning of July on the beginning of this run that we had. >> Yep. >> And we've dropped off a little bit since then. Today looks to be a little light, you know, you see what what we've done since we've been up there, right? We're going to break it on lighter volume today. On a daily basis, we got a spy doing 24 million right now. And that's that's What do you think about that? Any any Let's see what happens. >> it's not ideal, you know, it's you have to have a group of indicators kind of giving the same signal. We got one that's not good, which is volume. >> Tell you what, we'll come right back, folks. We'll finish this thought and we're getting right to gold as well. We'll come back with Tim Ord. >> [music] >> Welcome back, folks. We got an S&P likely closing if we're where we are right now in 18 minutes at a record price, up about 7/10%. We're talking with Tim Ord, author of the Ord Oracle. Tim, if you could just finish that thought when you were talking about volume, how you look at something like that and because I would agree that man, the the the the signs in this market right now for bullish. But how do you look at something like that? >> Well, yeah, you got to look at a lot of different type indicators when you get I don't know, my opinion, when you get two or three or maybe even four that favor you and you get one or two that not, you go with the majority. And volume, ideally, is kind of one of my mainstays, the things I look at. And I don't like volume hitting a new high, but it can hit a new high on lighter volume for a spell before it reacts. So, maybe maybe we're heading for some sort of a high, but it's not >> Yeah, we'll see what it's not today. Um no, all right, so it's not today, I know. >> And the VIX will probably give us some signs and it's not giving us any signs today. It's now at 1463, quite a VIX, man. Let's move on to metals, please. >> All right, so this is a momentum chart. Uh the bottom window is the GD This is a daily chart, I think. Yeah, it's cumulative daily. Um this is a cumulative up down volume this window right here. And this And the bottom window is advanced decline. And uh so So it measures uh there's like 61 stocks in the ETF of GDX. And it measures of those 61 stocks, it measures all that advanced decline of those 61 stocks. And up and they all up down volume for all 61 stocks. So it's a cumulative about 61 stocks it's measuring uh what's going on. So it's a good indicator to This is kind of a momentum indicator. It's not designed to catch uh the tops or bottoms cuz uh the green area is when both these indicators, this one here and this one here, above the mid Bollinger band. When it gets below the mid Bollinger band, which it did here, and it did here, is when it it's a sell signal. So you can see that, you know, the top was here, didn't give a great sell signal. But we're back to green again. We we we're we're on both indicators, we're above the mid Bollinger band on both of Uh and I think the I didn't put a weekly chart up, but I think the weekly flipped uh bullish, too. So you'll have uh some sort of uh consolidations along the way. But the chart, momentum-wise, has flipped up. So we're starting to rally that may last a while. Here's uh we showed this chart last time. Uh the bottom window is the uh GDX up down volume with a 70-day 79-day average. So this is not cumulative. This is a moving average. So it gives you a different picture than a cumulative one. So the next one up is the 50-day average of the up down volume. And then the top one is 62-day average. If you're all If you notice, they're all turned up. And normally when they turned up, they went down on is So when you get down on uh the 62-day down around minus 50 15, that's usually exhaustion to the downside. On the 50-day average, uh it gets down around 20. On a 70-day average, it gets down around 10. Okay. So, all three of them hit their exhaustion move to the downside. So, on a 50-day >> Man, from 120 almost to 70, right? It's a man, that was quite a pullback for you know, it it matches up, yeah. >> Right. So, you want to catch it when all these indicators get down to the exhaustion to the downside. Yes. And that's the key. You don't want to pick your bottom. You want to wait for the exhaustion. That's the reason why I got these red lines here. This These are exhaustion moves to the downside. And but once they turn up, sometimes they build a little base. That one looked like it had a couple of week base, maybe a month base. This one kind of the same thing. It just kind of went down and kind of just made a bottom over, you know, couple of three weeks. Don't know how long. Sometimes you just spike down and turn straight back up. These build a little base and now they're finally all turning up. Well, once they turn up, that means you hit exhaustion to the downside. So, that the selling pressure's done. Whoever sold, sold. So, what's left is basically just buying pressure. And that's what's starting right now. And how long the rallies last? So, if you look, you know, this is kind of a big time frame. So, a 50-day average, you know, you got 21 day average in a month average trading days a month. So, you're looking at 50 days, you're over 2 months there. 62 days, about 3 months. 79 days is what? About close to 4 months or better, somewhere in that vicinity. So, you're looking a rally's going to be multi-week if not multi-month. And if you notice uh this rally in 2025 started lasted well into um you know, it looks like about it was uh two it wasn't quite a year, I guess, but you know, a lot of them uh are going to be multi-month. So, I think we're going to rally until next March, give or take. Uh so, that's kind of the cycle for gold. Seems like gold bottoms around July, anywhere from July to October, and usually March is kind of a high seasonality period. So, that's probably what we're going to do here. How high is high? At least Uh yeah, I did get a chart about that. So, anyhow, momentum for the up-down volume has turned up. That suggests we're in a low. Uh the pattern that forming here, this is yeah, this is the weekly chart. Uh it's a falling wedge. And we we got down in here and we got a kind of close call as bullish, you know, several weeks you know, three or four weeks ago. You know, around that 75 range, we did fall back down around 70. But anyhow, that was kind of bullish. And I thought, well, you know, we're at a low. You know, trouble is you know, pick the exact low time-wise a little bit harder. I just know price-wise we're at a low. I think we we were talking about I realized that I'm bullish, you know. I said that two or three weeks ago. Well, nothing really happened. We we did wiggle a little bit lower. But it did turn out the wedge did turn out. And you have to have a sign of strength out of this wedge. If you don't have a sign of strength, you're going to go right back into some sort of a base-building period if not another decline. So, you got to have that SOS. >> And what a sign, right? Totally. >> Yeah, right sign. And you kind of compare it to the you know, this is a weekly chart. So, you kind of compare it to the weeks before. So, you know, we're up about you know, if you look at these last I don't know, month, month and a half, you know, you're up about 30% volume. So, that's definitely a sign of strength off that low. We actually had one right here, too. And I was watching that. Normally, when you get a sign of strength inside of a pattern, you want to stay bullish. Even though it falls back, you want that volume on the fall back to be less. And that's exactly what I appeared That's the reason it got got me kind of confident that I knew this area was a low because I seen the sign of strength here and then it fell back on lighter volume. You can see the sign of strength kind of >> cool about it? I'll add my own too. Is that you took out the whole October of last year. Now that was tremendous volume of the highs, but pretty cool how you almost engulfed the highs of October of last year cuz that was an important area. And so you get the sign of strength, you take out the consolidation recently and then you blow apart that high there. That's real support, you know, that general area, that high and then that pullback there is kind of that area that gave it support. Pretty cool I thought. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah, so so anyway, we got a sign of strength this week. This is a weekly chart and this week's volume is probably not going to be high as last week's volume. So when you go start to go up, you want the the previous high the current high to be as volume-wise equal if not greater than the previous high. And you can also measure how high's this volume here compared to this high here and you're need to be equal and it was. So this is a consolidation. I think you're going to find support around 85. That's the reason I got that line right there. Nice. But but you know, we may pull back for I don't know a week or two, but ultimately we're going to head up to that high of 117 area. >> I like it. >> break it? I don't know, but I think there's a good chance >> 30% Tim in less than a month in that GDX. So yeah, maybe digest for for a bit in a healthy market, but quite a market. I agree, man. >> gold. Tim, appreciate the time. Appreciate you walking through the markets as always. Folks, check it out orat-oracle.com. We'll talk to you on Tuesday, Tim. >> All right, talk to you then. Thanks a lot. >> Talk to you then. Thanks so much. We'll be right back, folks.