August 12th Trade What You See with Larry Pesavento on TFNN - 2026
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
Larry Pesavento begins his market analysis by applying technical patterns from Gardley's "222" book alongside specific Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential trading opportunities across various asset classes. He focuses on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, noting a possible ABCD correction pattern where a break below key support near 3,800 could trigger further downside moves toward 3,330. In commodities, gold appears to be rolling over after reaching recent highs, while grain markets like wheat and soybeans reacted positively to bullish reports; Pesavento admits he missed some initial gains in wheat but emphasizes the importance of adhering to specific retracement levels rather than second-guessing trades once entered. He observes similar structural patterns across global indices such as the DAX and Japanese market, which is currently trading at a 61% retracement level, alongside semiconductor indexes and individual stocks including IBM, Apple, Intel, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, and Caterpillar.
The discussion extends to currency markets where Pesavento reviews positions on the dollar index, euro, yen, and pound, highlighting significant volatility in the Japanese yen while advising caution against double-short strategies on correlated pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD due to potential market shifts. Crude oil remains technically bullish but shows signs of slowing momentum with lower tops forming as a possibility. To provide context for these levels, Pesavento explains the mathematical basis behind them using square roots; starting with 382 yields approximately 1.618, the Golden Ratio, and taking its root again results in roughly 0.786, figures frequently utilized by Wall Street traders. He also touches upon planetary alignments, specifically Venus retrograde and Uranus during a solar eclipse on this important energy day, suggesting that certain celestial periods align with Fibonacci ratios like 0.618 of a year, which may influence market behavior alongside traditional technical analysis.
Beyond pure chart reading, the video includes promotional segments for TFN's educational resources designed to help traders navigate these complex conditions. Viewers are introduced to Tommy O'Brien's "Rocket Equities and Options Report" for fundamental and technical setups, Larry Pesavento's own "Fibonacci 24/7" newsletter which offers daily charts and commentary with a money-back guarantee, and Steve Rhodes' award-winning "Mastering Probability" newsletter that includes free webinar access. Additionally, TFN promotes its Discord community called "Tiger Zen," available to subscribers for an annual fee of one dollar, fostering a collaborative environment for traders. The speaker invites viewers to join live trading sessions between 9 AM and noon Eastern Time, where he executes four or five trades daily based on his six years of experience that has yielded mostly winning results with occasional losses, concluding the session by reiterating the invitation for future participation.
In conclusion, Pesavento stresses that markets are currently transitioning from broad bullishness to a phase of selective strength, requiring traders to remain vigilant at key Fibonacci levels and support zones identified across global indices and individual stocks. He notes that while new highs in the DAX and NYSE indices remain within their established trading ranges, specific setups like an island reversal pattern on the Dow Jones if it gaps down could signal significant directional changes. Gold is analyzed as having retraced roughly 50% from a prior move but failing to reach the critical 38.2 level before hitting December contract highs around 45.2, illustrating the nuanced nature of current market dynamics. Ultimately, his strategy revolves around identifying ABCD patterns at these pivotal Fibonacci levels while acknowledging that waiting for confirmation is often better than chasing moves without clear structural support or resistance alignment.
Read the full video transcript
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The following is a presentation of TFN.
Trade what you see
with Larry Pesventto.
Call now toll-free at 1877-927-6648
or internationally at 727-8737618.
Now, Larry Pesimento.
Okay, folks. This is a picture of the
Dow Jones 4hour chart going back after
the high we made back here on the 5th of
August. And of course today we have the
big astral stuff that's been going on.
Yesterday uh we went excuse me on the
yeah the 11th we went and made an ABCD
A B CD right there. This is right out of
Gardley's book. This is his 222 pattern.
I named it 222
because uh the uh two full pages of that
book 500 and some pages. It took him two
pages to describe that what he thought
was the best way to trade. In other
words, don't try to pick a top like
Larry Pimeno does. It's actually
mentioned in that book. Of course, it
was written for 7 years before I was
born. Anyway, anyway, this is the we
look for an ABCD against the trend. And
he said that'll be the thing to look
for. And that's what we do. This is what
that 222 is all about. Okay. Now, you
can see we've been sitting in this range
here today of about 100 about 200 points
up and down. And uh the key is there's
your 382. If we go below this level
right here, this is going to signal.
It's the first time we've broken a 382
uh in a very long time. This would set
up the potential of this being an ABCD
pattern down into right there. That
would take you down to 3330. So, the key
level here is well, we know it's 3,800.
There's the there's the main level. The
low today was uh 383023.
And from that level, you can see we were
able to rally back a little bit. There
was a low in here this morning and there
you can see it automatically popped up
with a you can see we're looking at a
382 right now uh on the Dow Jones and
there's a smaller ABCD pattern that's
also there.
That's very short term. Okay, folks. All
right, let's move on. Okay, let's let's
talk about the gold market here, folks.
Here's our gold for today.
Now, if you remember on the daily
charts, let's just go back here on the
daily charts. We were looking at the big
number up here. You see that little red
line right there? That came in at 4510.
The high today was 452.
That was within $8 of the exact number.
That was a 50% retracement off of that
high right there as that's what that
was. So, and we've had a pretty good run
almost exactly like this one. And now
we're starting to move lower. As we look
at this on a smaller time scale, you'll
see it had a little three drive to a top
pattern right here. See that three drive
to a top pattern? Then you came back
this and that and this and that. And
then finally it started to roll over.
Now when it started to roll over, you
started to see there's your first case
of lower bottoms. Okay? And what does it
do? It rallies up. There's your high
right here. If you would to mark that
off, put it right there. You'd see your
382 would have come in right here at uh
86. And here's where it is now heading
lower. As we were watching it with the
AI today because I had nothing else to
do because there was nothing going on in
the grain markets. Uh that's tongue and
cheek, folks. And you can see it's
starting to move down a little bit. But
this could be the major top in gold for
quite some time now. Let's stop and
think a little bit.
Okay, now we've got a a higher high in
gold. We got a higher high in the DAX.
We had a higher high in the New York
Stock Exchange index. We had a higher
high in silver, a recovery high and a
whole bunch of other stuff recovery
highs. And maybe this is a big cycle
that uh that the stars are trying to
talk to us about that. I don't know. Uh
just it just seems very unusual that
we're looking at stuff like this. All
right, here's the NASDAQ. As we look at
the NASDAQ here this morning, it's also
held up relatively well.
It took out the previous day's high,
which is a good thing. You can see it
took out the previous day's high, then
it sold off a little bit. It's now
banking off. Here was the the ABCD here
yesterday. So, today's action, boom,
straight up. Now, let's look at this
real closely. Okay, folks. We'll just
put the 8 minute up and see if we can
find anything that would have told us
that this thing was really ready to
roar. Well, here's the opening right
here. There is the opening. Now, what do
you think that is off of that spot right
there? Let's just take a little gamble
and think it may be 382. We'll just mark
it off and see if it is. Well, shut the
front door and raise a rant. There's
your low of the day right there, right
after the open. There's the boom up and
there's where we've been going ever
since.
pay attention to these folks because
when they don't work all the time, but
when they do work, like anything else,
they're a lot of fun to do. Okay, we got
I'm going to spend a little bit of time
on the grains because it's been
unbelievable in the grain markets today.
We want to look at the stop and pee over
here also. Oh, we got to cover the
bonds, too, because we uh there was your
382 retracement in the bonds last night.
It gave it a pretty good runup uh right
after the report. It didn't even it
didn't even make an ABCD. All it did is
you can see it made a uh 78% retracement
of this move right here. Right there.
Just spot on. Okay. And it was probably
exactly 61 off of the the whole move
down. There they are. There was your
reason why you had so much resistance up
in here. Now you've come down. But
remember now we've had a pretty big run
up. So we want to watch for a 382
pullback. And I think we're right about
there right now. There's your high. Hold
on one second because it looks like
bonds have got a chance to ch change. Uh
we've come down a little below. Well, we
went to the 50%. The diff the difference
here is only six pips. So, it's not a
big deal. So, it's still got a chance to
move to the upside a little bit here uh
in the bond market. All right. Now that
we've covered the gold market, now let's
talk about the wheat. Yesterday, we were
doing this show and here's where we
were. Let's get the hourly chart up cuz
that's what we were basing this on. This
is the report. Report came out here,
folks. I I want to show it to you in
just a second here. It's a Watts report
about U. Okay, there's what we were
looking at. Now, we knew that report was
coming out. There was our number. We
were buying it at 28. And uh I said,
well, remember this was after the market
closed. Okay, this was there's where it
closed right here. Closed at 30. So, it
closed in the direction that we thought
it was going to go. But I said, look,
we'll wait till the report. But we
talked about it because look, the report
wasn't for 4 hours. Look what happened
during that time. Just straight up. It
gave away $3,000
in wheat just because I wanted to wait.
That was me just being just being
conservative. That's all it was. And as
you see here, this is the report came
out. It got all the way up here after
the report. Wait till you see soybeans.
There's your low right here overnight.
Where did the wheat go to? Exactly the
382. and it also would have made another
$700. So, that's what we're watching.
Now, I want to show you some volatility
here, folks. So, bear with me. We've
only got a few minutes, but we're going
to cover it. I've got to get the uh
soybeans up. Just one second. And we'll
get Oh, that's not the one I want. I
want this one right here. Here they are.
Here's the soybeans on the 30 minute
basis. Yes, folks. That's a true number
up there. Let me get this up out of the
way. I was watching this this morning. I
said, you know, this is Look, look. Oh,
shut the front door.
Shut the front door. Let me get that out
of the way. There we go. There's where
we are. Okay, here's where we were. This
is a 30-minut chart today from last
night. You can see this was the action
today. We had a beautiful It's going to
be hard to draw this in because this is
off the charts. The report was evidently
construed as very bullish, but there was
your ABCD pattern here in the right
there. Okay, we'll be right back. Stay
tuned.
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Okay folks, after the report came out,
beans rallied 30 cents up to the 50%
retracement of that high and almost
exactly within 4 cents of the 382. And
that takes a huge number up there,
folks. Those are commercials that are
just sitting there putting their orders
in. So you can see that's a huge thing.
It went boom boom real fast. A fact is
if you looked at it on a 2-minute chart,
you might not even see it. Just there it
is. Look, there it is right there. So,
it uh it's wild times. Hey, you know, we
we made a decision yesterday. The
decision that I made and and several
people asked me about it, especially Oh,
Tommy Terrific over there in Minnesota
there with Rich Anderson. you know, he
had he said I hadn't 10 hours to trade
that thing or more because we had the
rest of the day and it closed four the
wheat it closed in his favor 4 cents and
he ended up making you know 22 cents out
of it and that's 22 cents I didn't make
because I wanted to wait till after the
report and after report there was a lot
of stuff going on but I didn't take
advantage of it just look at for well I
don't want to go into all the reason you
when you have to make a decision on
something folks once you've made the
decision move on you know God I make a
lot of bad decisions
You guys been with me for a long time
know that. But the one decision that I
don't make very badly is I don't sit
there and watch them beat the hell out
of me. Go short and stay there for six
or seven days as the market goes
straight up. No, no, no, no, no. You
won't see that. Uh this is what uh you
know, it's what keeps you alive in this
business cuz you don't know which ones
are right and which ones are wrong. Now,
this is the the soybean move. You can
see we had the move big move here on the
daily chart. It doesn't look anything.
It's really nothing. It's just more than
a 382 retracement. That's all it is
right there. You know, if you were
really bearish means, you want you could
have to shade it by a few points. Let me
see that. Well, it's four cent 2 cents.
You'd have to shade it by two cents to
get filled. But if you did, you made 30
cents. Okay? So, don't you don't want to
uh second guess yourself once you've
once you've done something. Get out of
dodge. You know, you don't have to worry
about that after that. It's all already
done. All right. Now, let's take a look
here at the corn market because the corn
market I saw was up quite a bit today,
too. Get the daily up and see how we
Yep. corn. And not only that, guess
what? Corn is still up. So, that's
telling that there's nothing wrong with
this. Well, this is the daily. Oh, let's
put up the uh hourly chart so we can see
it. But it looks like it's straight up.
And boy, it is. Look at that. This was a
really bullish report. Here's right
before the report. All right. And if
you're trading corn and you're a corn
trader, all right, you're looking at
this. Here's to this morning right
before the the report comes out. What do
you think that was, boys and girls?
We'll mark that there to there. And
there it is. Uh 382 is right there. You
buy it at 40. That's 750 simoleons
without even taking any risk at all.
That's a big move, folks. Big move. So
that's what we're watching here so far
today. The corn is moving very good.
That means the grain markets are in in
in uh demand. Part of this, folks, is
caused because the uh the uh the
fighting between Ukraine, the the
Ukrainians and the Russians, the
Ukrainians hit the ports in in Crimea, I
guess, and that destroyed the way of
getting the grain out of there, mostly
wheat. And uh so that's why that's part
of it. Mol grains go up because
everybody needs it and they start to buy
it. So anyway, that's what we're
watching here. uh in the grain market.
So that's primarily Let's get back to
what really counts here, folks, which is
going to be the stock market, cuz this
is either I'm either going to be really
right or slightly wrong. That's good.
There's no way I'm going to Well, first
of all, we got a big lead in the darn
thing. But, uh, let's look at this where
we stand right now. So, we can look at
this. Get this out of the way. We'll
worry about that tomorrow. Worry about
bonds tomorrow. Don't have to worry
about that. Let's get take a look at the
YM because that's what everybody's
watching. Okay, there's that YM that
we're looking at right now, folks. That
pattern that I showed you. Let's get
that hourly pattern back up here on the
That's is That's right out of Guardley's
book. That's as bearish as get. Now, you
see we've taken that out a little bit.
We rallied up and down. Haven't taken
out, but we're as soon as we start down.
There's no reason for any of these
people to think that there's anything
wrong, folks. You made new highs. We're
going to cover that. We're going to do
that right now. Th This is what I'm
looking at here. As soon as we start
moving down, we should get down to this
level. But let's go look around the
world because these are world markets
now. There's the 382 and the
Philadelphia semiconductor index is an
ABCD setting right there. Okay, as you
can see, it's up 3.3% today. All right,
we take a look at the DAX. You can see
that, excuse me, this New York deposit
index, it made a higher high. It's in
the lower part of the range right now.
If we look at the uh German DAX, which
is uh right here, it made a slightly
higher high and is now down on the day.
And it's down quite a bit on the day.
Actually, if you looked at this on the 1
hour, you well, you can't see it because
the thing is not very expanded.
Sorry about that. All right, get that
back up to the dailies here so we can
make sure what we're looking at here.
This the Japanese market sitting exactly
at the 61% retracement as we speak right
now. There it is. That's a 61%
retracement of the high right back in
here. Uh also if we look at the we've
already looked at the the uh the
semiconductor index whereas uh there's
Korea Cosby hasn't even made a 382 as of
yet. So and the money just keeps pouring
in to artificial intelligence folks like
there is no uh tomorrow. the
we are still looking lower in the
cryptocurrencies too. So those are the
ones that we're paying uh close
attention to. Hold on, let me uh
get back to the show. We have a a couple
of questions on stocks that we've been
watching. Remember yesterday we were
selling IBM short. If you remember, we
had that same pattern in IBM that we had
in the Dow Jones that we're looking at
right now. So we're going to take a look
at IBM. I haven't looked at it, but
let's see what it is. Let's see where we
are. Okay. Well, there it is right
there. There was a sell right there.
There was Let's just get this up
together. See what's happening here.
There's where it is right there. And now
you're down a couple 67 points. But that
started the right way. There's the same
pattern. A BCD 382. That's what he said
to look for. You know, find a market
that's uh, you know, making
retracements.
Lower tops, lower bottoms. There's ABCD
right there. You can see it. Bada bing,
bada boom. Does it work all the time?
Nope. But it works some of the time. And
that's the key to looking at it. There's
a lot of tricks to it, folks. The only
way you learn those tricks is to look at
them and look at them yourself and teach
yourself or have somebody like me try to
teach you, but most people are just too
dogone lazy to learn. All right, let's
get up here and we want to cover. We
have another one that we were watching,
which was Apple. If you remember, we
were short the Apple and we'll get this
up here. Oh, I think Intel Intel's first
trying to sell Intel. Uh, well, Intel
was down. Okay. And now it's back up
trying to get there. Now, looking at
Intel, let's look at it cuz we we had
them. We haven't hit that number yet.
See, we've There's the ABCD, but the 382
is right here. It's actually doing
pretty good today. Intel's acting pretty
good. As a matter of fact, that low from
there to there, this was probably
exactly
382. There it was right there. And now
you're getting close to this level
again. So we keep that on the keep that
on the burner. Okay. Uh we had uh what
was the other one we had? Uh come on
folks. Help me out here. All right. Uh
Tesla Tesla Tesla. Let's see how Tesla's
doing, you know. And what be folks just
cuz this stuff is selling off in SpaceX
and stuff. Don't worry about those guys.
They got enough money to cover their uh
losses here. We're still looking for a
Tesla to get up into this area right
here, which is right around $349. That's
up about $13. We could easily do that.
All right, we're going to take a little
break and we'll be right back. We got to
talk some more about the foreign
currencies.
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Okay folks, as you can see here, this is
the IBM uh question was has it reached
the target? No. The answer to that is
you want to see what the 382 is and also
the last correction. So you just go over
and measure the last correction and you
put that down there and there it is the
same. That's what your next correction
would be. If short-term trading, that's
what you'd be watching for. That'd be
down here at 27. So if you sold it here
at 39 to 27, that's a $12 gain. You're
only risking $3. That's 4:1. So that's
the kind you're waiting for. So that's
your target right there. I hope that
helps. There's what we're just looking
at repetition, folks. I'm not trying to
make anything up. I gave up that many
years ago. That's what you're watching
for with IBM. All right. Now, let's take
a look at crude oil. Crude oil is still
acting bullish, folks. I don't care what
the news is going out there, but you can
see yesterday the pullback was right at
the 382. It's held there. We went up. We
didn't do much, but we haven't damaged
anything. We haven't broken that 382.
It's still acting pretty good. It's been
going up and up and up. So there's no
reason to think there's anything any
different. Okay. And that's just the 382
off of that one. The 382 off of the
whole thing will be probably right
there. Let's just double check that cuz
that's probably where it'll be. Well,
just below it. So, watch that one right
here. See, there's going to be a lot of
support here at 8050. And we're we're
holding our own in this level right
here. I haven't looked at action today.
So, let me bring up the uh AI really
quickly just to see if it's done
anything. And for some reason it's not
showing today. What is wrong? Oh, there
it is. Okay. Well, it's definitely
inverted. You can see it's instead of
going up, it's been going down. So, I
have to invert that. And just give me
one second. What that does, folks. It's
basically a vibration. That's what
that's what all these markets are. And
uh you'll see if you invert this. There
was your low. Came in right about here.
And now we're still heading to the
higher part. We didn't even have an ABCD
move to the downside. Oh, yes we did.
Pretty close. Let's double check here.
There's your AB right here. There's your
CD right there. Oh, did we make it? Oh,
got right on the money. Right on. Good
old ABCD coming through again. There's
another ABCD coming here. I mean,
they're everywhere. You just got to find
the ones. You can't go any lower than 2
minutes. Otherwise, you just can't trade
these things because the you see these
little tiny ones, you're going to go
absolutely nuts. So stick with something
like an eight minute chart. Let's just
look at this. You'll see the 8 minute is
much clearer. There's your 8 minute.
There's your It shows you the ABCD
really clear right there. Okay, there it
is right there. And that's all you And
that's probably exactly 61% off the low
right back here. What do you think?
Well, there it is right there. So can't
beat that. Now all we're doing now is
we're going sideways. This is not very
bullish, folks, because we should have
exploded out of this one, but we didn't.
We slowed down and now we're seeing a
little situation of lower top. So, that
might be an indication that we might be
getting ready to go to the downside in
the crude oil. All right, now let's move
over and get this out of the way. And we
want to talk about the currencies. We're
going to start out here with the dollar
index, which we started from the
beginning. That's where we want to be
watching. That brings it right here. We
met we had that real strong support that
landed right there. And look at it now.
If you see how it's starting to do what
we thought it was going to do, that
means that this is going up. The other
side that we're looking at where
basically when you're long the uh the uh
dollar index, you're short the the euro.
And that's the one we've been short.
Okay. Along with the dollar index on the
the Japanese, which we're going to cover
in just a minute also. In fact, we're
going to do that just about right now
because it has been all over the map
today. Just a second here. And you can
see we we really had some big swings
here in the uh Japanese yen here today.
I really thought, oh gee whiz, this is
going to be one that's going to go
crazy. Well, this the 13. Let's do the
hourly chart so we can see it all
together. There was a big move and then
we I had the pullback. It didn't even
make a 382 here this morning, folks. So
that told me, uh-oh, that's it. Now
there's where I think we're going to go.
And that's why our stop on this is at
106
1608. If we get there, we get above
that, then that's where I'm going to
say, uncle, and we will book a $4,000
profit and leave a nice uh $4,000 on the
table. Instead of making eight, we'll
make four. But uh there was the ABCD to
the downside and green got to the best
of me folks and I thought this was going
to be the big one. It doesn't look like
it's going to be at as of today, but
it's got to get above here. Might give
us another chance, but right now it's
not doing what we thought it did. Big
swings in here, folks. That's a lot for
the currency. Okay, now let's get over
to the euro and we'll look at that
because that's the easy thing to trade.
Get the euro up and that'll be coming in
right about there. And we'll bring up
the 60 minute. You can see where we are.
There was the high yesterday and the
day. There we go. We had a big move up.
Remember we we were watching that very
closely. That was that ABCD move right
here. Okay, that's the one we were
watching on the on this uh dollar index.
There it was right up in here. And there
was your high today. came right in at
the 61% retracement and now we're
starting to move lower. Just move that
over like this. You'll see it just very
clearly.
There's your high. There's your 61%
retracement. And now we're starting to
move lower as we expected. So, in the
long-term view of the Euro, let's get
the weekly up for just a second here.
We've held this for quite a while. You
can see the rally back has been 50%.
Okay, that's why we're still basically
bearish. Now, it's hit this 382 1 2 3 4
5 6 weeks ago and held. So, it
if it can back off and get above here,
folks, you don't want to be short. But
the fact that we stayed there for 6
weeks, and that's the same thing with
the dollar index. The dollar index has
moved up. But boy, if the dollar index
fails below that number we were just
looking at, that's not good. So that's
why when those things happen, uh, they
move the markets. They move everything
because this is real money from all over
the world, folks. That's this is what 60
50 53% of the dollar index is in the
euro. So that's why you want to watch
it. It's a great thing to trade. Look at
it in day. Just take a 4 minute today if
you want to give it. There is the
4-minute action today. And it's a lot
because there's a report out. Okay, just
bring it back to the previous day. Okay,
there's what you're looking at this
morning. The market takes off and goes
up in here. All right. Now, if you
believe in what we talk about, you have
a big straight up move. Watch for the
first 32 retracement. And there would
there would have been well, it's 50%,
but there it is right there. Your risk
here was uh what 10 pips. And look at
this. It's made a lot of money. And as
you can see, as it goes down, it all it
does is make 382 retracements all the
rest of the day. There's your one right
here. There should be another one right
there.
And it misses it by a tick. And then
this one will probably get it right on
the money. And it still goes down. You
see it rallies 1 2 3 down. 1 2 3 4 down.
Doesn't rally any more than three pips
or three three uh
16 20 minutes and then back down again.
It's in a very strong trending market.
That's where it gets you moving in the
right direction on some of these things.
I hope that helps. I'm going to be
sending out an invitation for Friday's
uh live trading, folks. It'll be come
out today. So, if you see something
coming in the mail from me about uh the
it won't be spam. Uh so, hopefully we
got all that taken care of and we'll
find out if it's going to work. But, you
will get something today on our group
that we're going to have on Friday,
which is live trading from 9 until 12 on
Friday.
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Okay, here's the British pound, folks.
We've been bearish in this. We covered
it here after 10 days down. We put it
back here at the 78% level right here
the other day. you know, our stock was
above here, so you're back to break even
on this. I know some of you short both
the pound and the euro, which is
well, cuz they're different. I guess
it's okay. But you're not supposed to
double up. In other words, if you have a
position in one, you're basically going
against the US dollar. But if you trade
them separately, I guess it's okay.
That'd be like being long wheat and long
corn into a major report. You got to be
really careful. They're different
commodities and they have different
uses, but uh you know, you have to be
careful of the risk because you can see
the swings that we had in those grains
today is you know, basically off the
charts and uh well, that's it. Let's get
this out of the way here. So, we've
covered that one. All right, we'll get
back and we're talking about the stock
market. Let's keep watching it because
we've only got about few more minutes
looking at it right here. So, here's the
NASDAQ where we are here
early today and you can see we're just
bouncing around. Uh, not really not
really running away, not going down
either. So, there's your 382 this
morning. We rallying up, came back down
to the 61. Another ABCD. You can see
there's the ABCD right here. The one
that everybody's watching is this one,
folks. They're watching the Dow Jones
cuz you know the Dow Jones gets all the
it gets you don't see this.
You don't see the S&P all the Well, you
do see it, but not like the Dow Jones.
The Dow Jones is what everybody watches
even though it's the wrong one to watch
because it's only 30 stocks and those
are the ones that are going uh you know
going crazy, you know. So, that's a
that's a real key thing to watch. In
fact, I well, I don't know which one is
the strongest today, but all the all the
Dow's been doing after the early morning
when it was up about 200, then it came
down back to even, it's only been up 50
or 60 points all during this time here,
folks, in the last hour, just looking at
it on a short-term basis. You can see
that's all it's done. It's come here and
just done these little ABCDs of a period
of about 50 60 points. It's when we get
below here, see that little red line
down here? then that's going to tell us,
yep, this might be the one that does it.
But early this morning, all that was was
a 61% retracement of the previous high.
That's all that was right there. So,
that's that's that's what it's got fight
through in order to make it look
bullish. It might get up here, too,
folks. I'm not saying that it can't
because this is a big big big energy
day. You can go on NASA's website and
talk about it because they're saying
this is the most powerful day of the
year. when you hear him talk about that
kind of stuff. Not very often. And we've
made some new highs in some of these
things like the DAX and the New York
Stock Exchange index and probably a few
others that I'm not even following. But
that's it. The rest of them have been
diverging to the downside cuz it's I
believe a market that is definitely
making a transition from uh overall
bullish to everything to being just
bullish on certain things and not the
others. Okay, now we've covered that.
Let me see what I had to do here. Got 15
minutes to go through here and I've got
to remember what I had to say. Hold on
just a sec. Oh, stocks. Hold on. There's
three stocks that we need to watch.
First of the big ones in the Dow Jones.
Let's just look at them right now.
Here's Goldman Sachs cuz this is a
leader. It's got uh got all the money in
the world.
Let's get the daily up. Okay. So, we can
see where we are daily wise. Okay. Now
we've we're actually we were up higher
uh today. Now we moved back a little
bit. That's one of the reasons why the
Dow might be backing off a little bit.
See, we're higher earlier and now we're
backing off. There was a three drive
pattern back here on the 13th of July.
There was an ABCD move right here and it
is moving to the downside. The second
largest in the group. This got as high
as 1160, folks. Now it's at 10:30. Now
let's look at Caterpillar. Okay. Hard to
believe a construction business got
involved with uh of the databases, but
boy, they did and they did a good job.
So, here's get the daily up. This was a
I think it got to 900 if I'm not
mistaken. Woo. Where you been, Larry?
30,080. Yeah. Holy cow. Yeah. Got to,80
and here we are right now. Well, we're
having a rally today. But all that rally
is is a basic little tiny 382. And these
are this is the second largest stock in
the Dow.
Wow. And it's up. I wonder why the Dow
is uh Boy, there must be a lot of stocks
in the down in the Dow that are down
from these two to not be helping at all.
Let's look at this on the 8 minute just
to see if that is a 382 just to be safe.
That doesn't do it. Let's move it over.
Here's what we want. There's what we
want to see from the high back here.
Put that in there. Yep, there it is.
That's what today's high was was. Looks
like they're both just about an exact
382. Hasn't really done much as of yet,
but it's still up. You see, it's up
quite a bit. So, that means if this is
up 17 points, that means that some of
these Dow stocks like IBM and some of
these other really getting trashed.
That's what it looks like. So, let's get
this out of the way and this out of the
way right here.
Okay. Okay. Someone um
asked a question. Where would I buy
wheat again? All right, so let me let me
get the This is the This is the NASDAQ.
We'll get this out of the way here. And
I do still have wheat here in the
program. Oh, yeah. Here it is right
here. All right. Now, we've had a big
move in wheat. And here's where we are.
Oh, look at this boy. That
have to laugh to myself, you know.
Here's where it was. and I said I didn't
want to take the chance. And of course,
right after the mark, here's where it
closed. Then right after the market
closed, it took off. And I knew that it
was going to go somewhere once it went
above the 382 of that move right there.
Okay? And then, of course, it had the
big move. But that was a decision that I
make, folks. You know, I make some of
these decisions are right, some of them
are wrong. That's what trading is all
about. That never bothers me. I'm a
little I'm a little a little more right
than I'm wrong. That's about all I'm
looking at. But I have a pretty good
idea of where some of these things are
going. So the question was, where do I
buy wheat? Again, okay, if I'm really
bullish and we made a new high up in
here, this is true of anything that
you're looking at, folks.
You look for the first 382 retracement.
Okay? Now, the pullback here was almost
exactly 382 right there. See? And if
you'd been watching that, it's within a
penny, folks, of the exact 382. So if
you're bullish watching for 382, you
could have bought it here at 47. It's
now 54. That's $350
that you have in your pocket. So your
risk would be very very small below
that. Okay? That's how you know it
doesn't make any difference what you're
in. That's what you want to be watching.
Watch that. That that number is uh where
it all starts. If you don't believe
yourself, folks, put the put your
calendar out, your calculator out, and
type in you have to have a square root
function, but hit type 382 and then hit
the square root button. Boom. Pops up
1.618 and hit the square root button
again. Boom. 786. And then you wonder
where the mathematics of the market come
from. Right from there, starts with 382.
And so that's where that's what these
guys on Wall Street, that's why they hit
these numbers. They know what they are.
They hit them all the time.
You know, that's the main thing. Okay,
let's move on here uh to a couple other
stocks that we had that the people have
asked about. Oh, Tucson semicondu Taiwan
semiconductor. Let me get that up here.
It was in the news again. Here it is
right here. See if it's doing pretty
good. Now, folks, remember this is you
can see what these things have done with
all this money that's coming in there.
And yet, these markets are down quite a
bit from where they originally were. you
know, I don't know.
I ain't got nothing else to say. Oh,
it's the end of the show. Thank good.
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>> In the world of trading, only a few
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Okay, folks. This is the pattern that
I'm watching here in the Dow. Everybody
that's bought this over the last 6 days
is now losing, folks. So, uh, if this
should I don't know if it's going to
happen or not, but if it should gap down
below this, then that would be an island
reversal. And boy, that is the most
bearish pattern you can have. Uh, so
we'll see if it's going to work or not.
And we might go back up, make a new
high. That's possible. We made a new
high in the DAX today. I don't remember.
We got to remember that cuz that's
important. There it is. Right there.
There's your DAX futures. You can see
we're right in the lower end of the
range right now. We made a new high in
the uh New York Stock Exchange index.
Also know the lower end of the range. So
this may be the high. Of course, we know
that the NASA has already said that this
is the most important energy day of the
year with that solar eclipse and all the
planetaries. They listed all seven
planets that were in the play. Norman
gave it to us the other day, but the
main one I watch is that Venus TR
Uranus, which is the Fibonacci Panel
planets. In other words, cenotic period
is exactly 618 of a year.
Okay, those are the main things. Also,
we're watching for a potential top in
this gold market, which is right up in
here. You can see we just made a 50%
retracement of that big move way back
here. And then it's also it didn't even
make a 38 50% off of that right there,
but it did not make a 382, but that's
the 50% level here. Came in at 44. Then
December contract comes in at 45 4510.
And that so far has been a high of 452.
And so we're going to find out if these
things work or not. Uh tomorrow we'll
have another good fun day. I'm going to
send out an invitation to join me for
live trading on uh between 9 and 12. Do
usually do four or five trades. Been
doing them now for 6 years. We only had
a few losing days during that time, but
we do have a few losing days and we've
had some pretty good winners. But you
will get an invitation a little later
today. And uh by anyway, live every day
in an attitude of gratitude and may God
bless.
Steve.