August 11th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] >> The following is a presentation of TCNN. >> [music] >> The Tom O'Brien show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. >> Let's go to Eddie in Boca Raton. Hey Eddie, what's going on? >> Hey Tom, how are you man? >> I'm doing great [music] man, yourself? >> Good, good. It is a treasure to have TCNN every hour during the trading [music] day to be there to help you, to guide you, and even give you some peace of mind or like that somebody else is there with you while [music] you're while you're trading this crazy market these are up or down. >> Well, listen we appreciate you growling and prowling with us out here cuz we wouldn't be out here folks if we didn't have all you guys, gals, tigers and tigresses as clients and you know, the market [music] teaches you every single day man. >> Now, Tom O'Brien. >> Hi folks, Basil Chapman here. I'm the author of the opening call and daily newsletter and I do the show at 10:00 to 11:00 every market day called the Tiger Technicians Hour. We're looking at the Dow just 3:00 an hour less than an hour to go. I'm sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tom O'Brien show down 200 at 53,776 and I said to subscribe to my subscribers because we all long we went long over a week ago and taking profits on the way up and still kept the core position, but mostly I said I do not want to see a Dow that slides below the 53,800 level today because that'll show that we've used up four sessions since the all-time high of 54,744 on the 5th of August. And you know, you got to be careful here because you don't really want to go into that gap. So, this is going to be an important moment. Look, the 914 is still really strong. That's a big positive. The MACD, this is the green and blue line green and red line, very strong. The red is strengthening this little gray line in between. That's pullback. I'm showing you this on the daily chart. This is the weekly, this is the monthly. So, look at this. You've got the stochastic which is over 80% but now slipped to 76%. That's the red and green lines. And this blue uh M-shape pattern right here is on balance volume. So, it it's pulling back a little bit. So, that just says, "Hey, be a little careful." But look at the weekly chart, all the technicals are very strong. It's a vague C. It's just still going to chop way methodology. D's where other things can happen. Your objective is to get to at least a D. So, this should still go to a leg D. If all of this week by Friday uh Friday afternoon at 4:00, the Dow has not gone above 54,744. 33. If it goes to .33, this still remains a leg C. If it goes above, that continues as a leg C. If it's one penny below, in other words, .32 instead of .33, that makes a peak C all the way to Friday. Um we've got a leg B in the monthly chart which says we should still go to a higher peak C and a higher peak D. All right. With that that out of the way, we'll do this really quickly with the S&P. Look at the S&P right now having a high-level consolidation in this rectangle formation. The level to watch is 70 I think it's just under 7,700. It is 70 uh 7,698.15. A close under that says, "Oops, you've got that H pattern dreaded H pattern. Be careful. I think it's So far, it looks like it wants to hold. All the technicals are really Look at this. Flat stochastic at 88%. I mean, that's what you look for in a buy mode, and that's what it is. So, we've got this leg. See if it goes one penny above 77.93. So, 77.93.68, it goes 0.69, you've got yourself an extension of leg C in the weekly chart. However, this has already gone to a leg D in the monthly chart. It's a little ahead of the game based on the Chappie Wave methodology. Let's go to the QQQ this is a technique that I developed a long time ago. I got the webinars on this that subscribers can always go to anytime they want. This is called the Chappie Wave inside track reap pattern zone. It's like either It's just a trend line, and then I do a little tiny trend line channel below it, and this is becomes really important. And this particular point, it just hasn't got the strength yet to go into the 730s. It's at 717.34. You can see the same thing in the SMH's. Uh it's pulled back. Oh, I didn't do that trend line. Now I can do it because we've got one from that high all-time high of 671.83 in the semiconductors. I'm going to make it as conservative as possible. Go right there. Look. There's your trend line. You have this beautiful arch formation. Wow, talk about an arch formation. Let me just show you this. I showed this to um to the den earlier in the day. Um No, just about an hour or so ago. Look at this beautiful There's your peak D in the in the uh 10-minute E-mini peak D. Sideways pattern at a high and very resistive. If you break below the channel support, you're going to go much lower. Well, we went from that 7790s down to a low of 77 I think it was 77.38, and now you're trying to bounce off that. But look at this. there's another chap we've taken. These are techniques you can learn to become a subscriber, you can get all my webinars. Look at this, left side, right side, price symmetry. >> [clears throat] >> I chose that peak G right there. And look at this, the number of bars on the left equal the number of bars on the right when it suddenly broke down. And uh look at the nine uh nine-period moving average turned negative right there. It's still negative. The MACD turned negative. It's still negative. The stochastic is flat at 12%. So there's still strength is lacking right now in the S&P for the final uh 45 minutes. All right, let's just get back to our story over here. The story is that um the SMHs, which always lead markets up and down in the big picture, have stalled since uh end of June. [clears throat] And it's giving us a clue that there is some kind of deterioration, but the rotation through the different sectors is remarkable. Uh I was uh telling subscribers in my uh video that I always do, a weekly video, I said, "Just look at this. You've got in the medical field, you've got Boston in medical instruments." Look at this, Boston Scientific. Look at that beautiful uh cup formation in a leg D. It was horrible from the 109 high of September of 2025 down to the 42 lows. And now look at it, it's at 51. Look at this, M MDT. Medtronic. Look at that. So there there are areas that are working very well. And within it, we've got gold. Let's look at gold, the GC. We'll have to monitor in a little while. Um just above the the 200-period moving average. It hasn't been there since it broke down in June. When it was up in the 4500s, but it slumped down to a double bottom of 3955, retested at 3963 successively. Lowercase H goes to lowercase M, and then it turns around. Now, the 9 period moving average is very The 9 period moving average is over the 14. That's very good. The MACD is very strong. Stochastic flat at 88%. That's lovely. And on balance volume is only now starting to climb. There isn't even recognition now that the gold market is starting to move very well. Look at silver right now. Silver, not quite the same. Oops, where did it go to? Let me just refresh. There it is. Silver right at the 200 period moving average. Just stalling a little bit, but the technicals are still very good. And the weekly chart needs quite a bit of work though. It's not quite as The gold weekly chart is a little bit stronger looking. Let's go to um high grade copper. High grade copper right now is at 6.62, just unchanged. Weekly is taking a little bit of a breather. And we want to just show you bonds as we go to the break. Bonds are going towards the upper end. And yes, gold brothers are stalled, but you know, you've got other areas like Home Depot has done very well. Look at this. Home Depot has gone to a late ease, maybe making some kind of a double top. Yeah, we'll be back in a moment. This is Russell 2000. Coming up on the Jim Cramer show. Dow is down 197. S&P is down 27. I'll be right back. >> anytime online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories of [music] these so-called forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off his firing traders without actually teaching the ins and outs of the forex market. This is what sets Teddy Kexxted's [music] The Tiger Forex Report off the riffraff. Every Monday, former Chicago Mercantile Exchange member and author Teddy Kexxted releases his Tiger Forex Report newsletter, where he dives into the complex world of forex [music] and takes time to actually teach you his methods that have made him so successful in the fast-paced [music] and rewarding world of Forex trading. Furthermore, all subscribers receive access to archive live streams of Teddy's where he provides university-level [music] education to help you in Forex trading. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money-back [music] guarantee. So, what are you waiting for? Forex awaits. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets [music] can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for [music] creating winning trades. At TFN, we understand [music] that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on [music] the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger [music] TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com [music] or on TFN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFN, educating investors. >> [music] >> I know it's your back. I'm just going to try to find this right now because this is usually where Tommy interviews me. Um and I think what I want you to do is do some a couple of things live just to show you the type of thing that I do and what I give to my subscribers. >> [clears throat] >> So I'm going to go out of that. I'm going to go into this and I'll just do what Tommy usually does, which is So he doesn't do He doesn't do that. He does it this right here and he goes to Come on. Give me the chart. There it is. Uh and he goes to this chart right here and he says, "Uh Basil Chapman coming up, uh the uh author of the Opening Call Daily Newsletter." So let me go tfnn.com and here we go. So um There we go. I did a webinar What is it? Tuesday a week ago? I think so. It's time fly. No, it must have been two Tuesdays ago. And that webinar was for opening call subscribers to uh July 28th. Um I discussed what technicals That is, technical tools to look for and what stocks and ETFs will benefit in this second half of 2026. In other words, the third quarter. And it was a a great detail what technicals to look for. Uh I went through almost everything I wanted to do and I discussed stocks and we've been since then we've been Well, before then and since then we've been trying to play with putting in orders to get whatever it is based on those criteria. And let me just show you something. I'll do this live. So, I was just looking at Home Depot. I drew this in up to there the other day. And it went to 358.85 on the 5th of June. >> [clears throat] >> But that was only in the chart wave methodology. You look at your starting point. Every peak gets counted from that even if there's a pullback. So, this is an A, that's an A, that becomes a B, that becomes a C, and then it stalls, and then it goes A and [clears throat] a B, gray A, gray B because it's under the previous C, and you're always anticipating a peak D. That's what you do in a buy signal to buy mode because all the technicals were very strong. Well, what happened is it failed, it did this H pattern, the dreaded H pattern, and for three sessions it did not break above, it didn't close above this trough right here that was on the 8th of July, and it went even lower to this doji, tiny doji candle right here, 320. 3.05. So, the technical tools that I have, and I use some of these, not all of them, is that I go for I try to look for bars symmetry. In other words, the number of bars that go from a from a peak or a trough to the what I consider to the potential midpoint, um can it equal the same number of bars exactly the same level, 358.85. So, we've got these bars that go down, and then all of a sudden you start to make higher highs and higher lows. And the object is below that peak C. You got it from this low here because you haven't got to a D. Once you go to a D, go to a D is changed. It isn't, it's still a C. This is still a buy mode in progress. You had that starting point right there. So, the peak A, that's a B, that's a C, that's a D three days ago, and today you went to Lake E. Lake E went to, remember 358.85 was the high of the 5th of June. Today's high is 358.36. I would say 51 cents away from that that previous high. What a nice technique, and this is the technique that I also look at. From the the the the um trough before the one that makes the low that starts the the the bicycle to buy mode, I like to draw in it's called channel wave inside wedge dash green target resistance line. Look how it kept being resisted right there. Well, today was the day that it went to the high that was made at 358.85 in the in the time lapse, and it missed it so few days, yeah. But I don't think it'll do it. But it missed it. I mean, how is it that, huh? And look, the MACD is good, stochastic is flat at 89%. So, these are still positive. This is I just wanted to show you some of the techniques. So, we have other techniques, for instance, let me just move this away here. Right here. So, uh looking at all of these we do these left side right side price time matches. We can have some order. Let me just show you something here in the gold contract. It's the same thing, left side right side price time match, but it got there much earlier to the left side high. We actually have the PHYS PHYS, which is the physical gold, and look at this, hasn't gotten It's broken above that left side high that was made around about the 22nd of June uh in the 32s, but 34.09 is really the target, and that target it comes in uh in another on the 13th, from the 13th to the 14th. Uh we'll see if that's going to even happen. It still has to make a peak see and then go there. But if you see the GDX, which is the gold miners, is a slightly different pattern. We've had these gaps. It's gone to high highs. It what's the target in the Chem Week methodology? A buy signal gets upgraded to a buy mode. What do you look for? A D. Where did it get to today? A D. So this is going to be important. How does it handle it? What does it do next? So within the context of all these different patterns, um you you have a guideline and that's what I try to show uh for subscribers all the time when I do my updates, etc. Um so let me just show you something else that we've done. So in in the CDE, which we still have a core position, we've got it from below eight and it went all the way to the 27s and then it pulled back. We took nice profits. So we had had a little misfortune the other day because I said I like it very much. We wanted to get it and it was right there and then the next day it pulled back, took us out, and then it did everything I was looking for. So this is coal mining CDE, but we've still got our core position. That was just a trading position I wanted to add. So look at this. It's having a nice day today. It's up 13 cents at 18.27. It's got the same left side, right side price time match and it says if everything works according to plan, um the next level of resistance is this dash green uh target resistance line 18.83. I don't know if it'll do it tomorrow because gold itself is just starting to pull back a little bit. Gold is up. It's still up eight um and we'll see what happens. So these are techniques that I use all the time uh and I think it it's really been of great benefit to us. Uh another thing that I wanted to mention is I've got a mix in our portfolios because I'm trying to get other areas that are really starting to work. For instance, uranium U R N M. Look at this. It's just come out of this huge downtrend line, made a little H pattern, and then it closed above that, and now it's just starting to show some support. So there are areas that may be beginning to show the kind of level that is interesting because look at the MACD, how strong it is. Look at the stochastic flat at 90% but the price I would have seen I'd like to have seen more appreciation but so far that's that's still acting very well. So I thought I'd just show you uh some of the techniques that I use. Uh there's uh another another one that I should discuss is General Electric. Um so General Electric has had a very nice rally. It went to that high over there. We've had it from 196 from yeah, from 1 198. And we've had it. We've taken nice profits, still kept a core position. Uh but then what happened was we wanted to do add. So we added just the other day 362. >> [clears throat] >> And that's going to be tested but it had very nice gains. We took nice shorter term gains with it. It did a left side, right side price time time action look right there and then it pulled back. So these are techniques that we use and um hopefully you'll be interested. You've got to put the page of T F N, check it out. It's my opening called Daily News Letter and I'll be back with Tim Moore. I'm really intrigued to hear what Tim Moore says uh this week because certainly we've had a nice rally in gold. We were looking at that breakout and it's happened. I'll be back in a moment. Basil Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien. Tommy O'Brien [music] show Tim Moore coming up. >> Many trading [music] newsletters a to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. But, how is an independent trader supposed to scan the entire market [music] looking for these hidden opportunities? One simple answer, the opening call newsletter. >> [music] >> Basil Chapman, developer of the Chapman Wave Trading Methodology, has been trading the markets for longer than most trading influencers [music] have been alive. And over that time, he has honed his methodology in order to accurately call movements in a wide range of equities, [music] from semiconductors to uranium to key indices and so much more. [music] Basil is old school, taking the time to educate the trader while also giving his insights into [music] key indices, selective stocks, and more. Opening Call subscribers also receive access to dozens of educational live streams >> [music] >> that can be accessed at any time for your edification. All first-time subscribers receive a 30-day money-back guarantee. 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This is the Tom O'Brien show. It is uh 3:30 about Yep, 3:30 on a Tuesday. And who do we have as our guest? We have Tim Ord. Uh this is www.ord-oracle.com. Tim, how are you? >> Yeah, good. Uh give my I'd like give my email address. It's tim@ ord-oracle.com. You can also find me at Twitter at uh ord-oracle.com. So, anyhow, that's how to get a hold of me. So, you want to take a look at the market? Great, love to. Well, let's go. All right. All right. This is the uh This is the daily kind of a short-term view, but it kind of gives a good picture. Uh the bottom window is the SPX VIX ratio. And I talked about this ratio a lot. Uh it's not infallible, but it does work pretty well. Last high in 2026 or well, early this year. Uh S&P's were kind of making higher highs, not much, but the ratio was just falling through the floor. Uh we're again now making higher highs over the last uh This is a weekly chart. Uh over the last several weeks. Uh even though we we trended sideways for a good couple of months, we finally broke out last week to the upside. And the ratio went with it with it. So, it made a higher high. Uh so, on a short-term or on a weekly time frame, that's bullish. And we got support now at the previous highs, which is around 7,600. Uh it may get there. Uh actually, I think it will. Um Let's look for another chart. Here's kind of uh the same chart going back. What I like about this chart uh kind of broke it down. Where's my um The green areas here uh and here and here and here and here are times when both the the weekly SPX VIX ratio and the SP SPX are above the mid Bollinger band. When both of them are usually you got quite a bit of information that the uptrend will continue. When you got one of the yellow parts are times when the SPs are above the mid Bollinger band but the VIX is not and that's kind of a warning sign. Sometimes a lot of times when you get the yellow warning sign it turns into a red zone where both the SPX and the SPX VIX ratio fall below the Bollinger band and that's what downtrends occur. So this red area here with the downtrend, this is a downtrend. Right now we don't have any of those. We got the S the weekly SPX VIX ratio above the mid Bollinger band and the SPX. So at the moment trend looks pretty good and normally you want the the VIX to stay below 16. When I made the chart it was 15 53 15.37. So that's usually a good sign so short term it looks okay. Uh here's kind of a short this is the daily chart. Um we did hit a new high on the last high on the on the SPX VIX ratio. Uh we've kind of been just flipping sideways here but we got support around on this one the 75 50 7 or 757 is support on the SPY is the daily SPY. So as long as we hold above that area I think the uptrend will continue but we did have a sign of strength here. That's the reason why that's the SOS. You want a sign of strength through the previous highs and that's pretty much what happened. That's the reason why that area is green. So, kind of looks good. Um only worrisome sign here uh this is I I marked the times and uh I don't know what I don't know what kind of color that is. Gray, I guess you might say. Uh when when the uh 21-day average of the Arms Index gets below uh point or 1.0 or 1 point or just 1, I guess you might say. And it can stay that way for a while, you know, as as market was going up in 2000 uh 26. Uh yeah, 20 25 high, it stayed you know, the ratio stayed below 1. That's kind of a warning sign. And the same thing happened going into uh the the top we had in in, you know, January, February area. That was kind of a warning sign. We had one recently back in June. It got below 1. And we kind of flipped sideways. Um it didn't really a top, but it did flip sideways and we're hitting it again. Uh so, that's kind of a warning sign. You know, it will anything develop, that could be, you know, weeks away because you know, here we we we traded below 1 for a you know, a couple three months and the market still held up for another couple of months. Uh same back uh same back here we So, it kind of tells me the upside may be limited here, is what I'm thinking. You know, ti- I don't see a top of any consequence cuz the VIX is not getting any signs. But, the Arms Index, you need around 1.2 or higher on a daily basis. That shows panic. When panic's out of the market, usually you don't have a lot of strength through the upside. And that's what this chart is saying. You got a 21-day average of uh below 1 or 0.96 right now. And panic's good for the market. If market goes down, you don't see any panic, the market will continue down until you do see panic. And here we got kind of lethargic reading close to one, so we really don't have panic to drive this market higher on a short-term basis. Um so So I'm bullish, yeah, but seem like some of the energy out of market is gone, so um not Now, I don't know. Uh at one point I thought this sideways pattern that we had June and July was a halfway point of the next move up, and that gave a target up around 860 or something like some great number to the upside. >> Great, yeah. >> Yeah, but with it That's that one at one point I thought, then I started looking at the trend. Well, the if the trend was up around, you know, 1.1 or 1.2 on a 21-day basis, I think we'd have the energy to get there. But with the trend down below one, I don't think we have the energy to get there, so Yeah, I'm still bullish. I'm still long. Um it's okay. Uh but not seeing panic here, so that's why I kind of worries me. There's some stuff on the put-call ratio readings, too, that are not ideal. But at the moment, uh the VIX is not showing any really signs here of bearishness. Uh so we got uh support >> [snorts and cough] >> Excuse me. at 76 or 76.7. Uh so maybe we go down here, then get some panic, and then we start going up. I don't know. >> Well, there is a CPI there's a inflation report tomorrow morning early. So when we get back, I had some questions uh in the den. Um one was the GLD. Um do you Where do you say was it No, so the GDX It'll be in your conversation, I'm sure, but do you think it'll retest the recent lows? Do you think this is uh how significant is it? But I'm sure you'll get to it in the next segment. So folks, let me just say Tom from Oracle will be back for the next segment. We're all waiting to hear what he says about gold. Basil Chapman is sitting in for Tommy O'Brien on the Tommy O'Brien show. We'll be back in a few minutes. We want to talk about gold. We'll be right back. >> If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfnn.com. TFNN, educating investors. For traders who crave risk, Direxion's Daily Leveraged and Inverse ETFs provide opportunities to magnify short-term perspectives with up to three times a daily leverage. Utilize bull and bear funds for both sides of the trade and trade through rapidly changing markets. These are highly leveraged ETFs with daily resetting designed for short-term trading, not long-term investing. Whether you're a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. For up-to-date pricing and performance, go to direction.com. Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage [music] and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index or security for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the prospectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. ALPS Distributors, Inc. >> The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic [music] and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFN we understand [music] that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool [music] for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters cover [music] every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any [music] of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. [music] Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of tfnn.com. TFN [music] educating investors. >> TFN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord. TFN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tigresses for just $1 [music] for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign [music] up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. >> Tom O'Brien. >> [snorts] [music] >> I'm folks Basil Chapman. This is the uh Tom O'Brien show and we've got Tim Ord on the line down 130 140 and the S&P is down 20. Let's go Tim. We wanted to look at He's going to be talking about the GDX. >> Yeah, we're going to do that. This is a premium for a gold trust. So it it it actually buys physical gold and anything below 2.25 is bullish even though the market's rallied here with anything below minus 2.25. We're at minus 2.27 still bullish. So sentiment-wise gold gold GDX is bullish. Um here's a question you probably you know we had a Oh, anyhow, this is a monthly chart. Uh March you had volume. Not sure what that volume is. Doesn't really matter, but you can see here broke this was the June June trading. It broke the March low. You can see the volume's a lot lighter. Volume compared to here to here is a lot lighter. So that's a false breakout to the downside. July you broke the June low and you can see volume is even lighter. So it's kind of exhausted to downside, but you need a close above the June low to get the buy signal. And it did on July sometime. I forgot what the lows were, but the July close was above the the June low and that triggered a buy signal. Then from there you have to have a sign of strength. Now this is a this is a monthly chart. The monthly GDX obviously we're August 11th, so we're about a third over uh month-wise. So if you add three times here of the volume say volume is equal for the last 11 days will be equal over the next 20 days. Whatever volume should be at least higher than the volume here on June. So what I'm what I'm saying is we are having a sign of strength. Volume is actually decent. The month is only a third over. So most likely volume will be probably up around 500 million, maybe 600 million this month. That's all you need. And so, are you getting for Are you going to have a retest? Are we kind of come back down and do a retest? I'd say no. You're not. You're going to Look, if you have a sign of strength off the bottom, you very seldom come back down and do a test. So, uh, and also, before the month's over, this month right here is is testing the June high right now. And so, as long as volume is high as as June high, I don't know what that volume is. Looks like close to a little less than 600. I bet we reach it. Uh, you're not going to come back. This is this whole pattern is a a falling wedge. Uh, you can't really see it on the monthly, but this was a falling wedge to the downside. Normally, falling wedges, they go up to the previous high at a minimum, uh, and test that high. So, in general, I think we're just heading higher, back up to the, um, it'd be the March high. And we'll consolidate, but we won't pull back much. We're not going to go back down and test the July low. That low is in. We did see some gaps on the gap up. Um, so, my my call is, in general, we just keep moving higher. There'll be a consolidations, but let's see if I got a daily chart here. Um, nope, I don't. Uh, but anyhow, so, to answer that question, are we going to down fill the gaps? Um, probably not. Not this time around. After we hit the previous highs up around 117, uh, we could flip in a trading range. We'll have to wait and determine that once we get there, but I think, in general, we'll hit the the, um, March high. I don't know. Uh, normally these falling wedges when they break out uh to the upside they go fairly fast and that's what this one's doing. So, my guess will will be up to the March high, you know, in the next month or two. Probably before the year's out. So, and will the March high be the top? I don't I don't know. Um Here's a something I'm watching real carefully. The bottom window is a GDXDLE ratio and it pretty much leads the GDX. If you notice here GDX is going higher this ratio is going down. Okay, got some bearish divergences here. The ratio is kind of making higher highs, not much, more or less higher highs, but kind of went sideways. This ratio went right through the floor. Uh, here GDX went from 117 down to 70 and in a big hurry and this ratio went sideways. So, I'm thinking this ratio we've gone in this trading range since I don't know, 2013, 2014. I put down 13 years, you could say 12, but anyhow, you gone sideways in this ratio for close to 13 years. It's due for a breakout. Normally previous times you get these type readings and they go anywhere from four to 10 years. This one's 13 years. So, the ratio really was was bullish, it just went sideways here. So, I'm thinking this ratio is going to keep breaking out of this trading range and going up to the next resistance. Well, this next resistance is here. Which is four. The ratio's you know, around two right now. And if the ratio goes to four, that's without gold moving, GDX would double from here. So, GDX is around 80, that'd be 83 right now. Um Is it 83 or where are we? >> Uh, the >> About 90. We're about 90 on GDX. Uh so anyhow, this must be a different chart. But anyhow, on this ratio >> it's 87 right now. >> Oh, 87, all right. Round off numbers, call it 90. So if this ratio goes to 40 that would mean it uh GDX would go to 80. And that's without GD or without gold moving. With gold moving, it'll probably go much higher than that. But anyhow, that'd be the minimum upside target. And I think this ratio is breaking out now. Uh so So, I got to see what happens at the previous highs, but uh this looks extremely favorable. Here's another trend following uh method. Uh this is the uh the bottom window is the uh 79 moving day average of the up-down volume. This is a 50-day average and a 62-day average. If you notice, they're they're all turning up. >> Right. Great shot, actually. >> Yeah, so and actually the the the ones that turn up, the rally on these are usually about a year. You know, if you do the statistics, uh you know, from here to here was about a year, from here to here was approximately a year. This is probably more than a year. So, this market uh is probably starting a multi-year rally. So, I'm not see what I'm not sure what's going to happen at the previous highs up around or the 117 area on GDX. It could build a consolidation there, but ultimately we're going to break above that and go much higher. Um here's another indicator. This is This is probably what's going to happen over the next 10 years. This is HUI to NDX ratio. So, it it it maps the gold market to the Nasdaq market. And there's a 12-year cycle uh going. I showed this chart before. I think that cycle's just starting now. It started 2024. So, if you add uh 12 years to it, you come in in 2036. To keep this thing bullish, the RSI of this ratio has to stay above 50. That's the reason why I marked this uh green. When it's when it's below 50, it's in a uh you know, then HUI underperforms NDX. But, I think I bet for the next 12 years, I bet we stay above RSI 50. So, I think the bigger markets are going to consolidate, the equity markets and gold markets will be the place to be. That's a lot of information, but >> yeah. So, um let me just show the folks right here. You see this? This is uh you've got some webinars by Tim, Secret Science of Market Tops, uh Six Secret Ratios Every Trader Should Know. Check front page out. Thank you, Tim. It's great information, as always. Look forward to seeing you on Thursday. Have a good couple of days. >> All right, thank you. So, see you then. >> Thank you very much. >> Many trading newsletters tend to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this works [music] for some, it oftentimes misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. 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Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. >> I talked to a man about the market today for Tommy O'Brien. This is the Tommy O'Brien show and had a question about Raytheon. Basically, the statement is uh let me just get to you. Uh it says Basil RTX at what price would you sell having been long for the past 10 years. This is fantastic that you've been long for the past 10 years. You you sat through some of the big declines, but look at this. Let's just go back to 2020. That's only 6 years. Uh that was the low that was a 40.71. It goes choppy wave peak A B C D E. Sharp pullback from the So that was the low of uh March of 2020. >> [clears throat] >> Uh we actually still have a long position in the diamonds from that level. Um 106.02 on the April of 2022 pulls back, makes a low of October 2023 at uh what is that? 68.56. And this move has just continued up. Now, there could be a choppy wave instant restart over there, but in the meantime, I don't have to talk about that. You see this expanding wedge? I would say to you, first of all, let's let's talk again in another week. I I just I don't I would not like you to say after the 10 years you should get out. What you can do is you're getting a little nervous because of the incredible gain that you've had long, long term. Um maybe it pulls back a little, but you know, Raytheon's defense defense is not going away. I would say to you just take a little bit off before, you know, to make if you want to sleep better at night, just take a little bit off. That's the best I can say to you, but I would just say hold on. Let's look at it again maybe in a week or two. Just give me a yell and we'll look at it. So, let me just wrap this up cuz we're going to finalize this and you're going to be going for Tomorrow's CPI comes out at 8:30. So, what if there's inflation? So, will gold say, "Hey, inflation, we going to go quite a bit higher right now?" Well, that's going to be the thing. But, the technicals in the gold contract and the silver contract and some of the other commodity areas are actually doing quite nicely right now. You need the weekly chart to get the 9-period moving average positive in the gold contract. But, in the meantime, this is very good action even if there's a bit of a pullback. Check out my weekly call daily newsletter and my webinar from 2 weeks ago. I will see you tomorrow on my show 10:00. You guys get to you.