August 10th The Tom O'Brien Show on TFNN - 2026

[music] The following is a presentation of TFN. [music] The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1877-927-6648 internationally at 727-8737618. >> Let's go to [music] Al in Tampa. Hey Al, what's going on? >> Oh, it's a beautiful thing. I mean, if your listeners [music] don't get the gold report, they're uh they're missing out. I mean, you with your gold [music] report, you just print in money. I love it. >> You're my best ad out there, Al. Let's go to uh Jeff in New Jersey. Hey Jeff, what's going on? >> Great. Uh hey, listen. I was calling to thank you. Uh a few weeks ago, you were prompting on your show to fill out that uh $10,000 uh grant. >> Yes. >> So, I filled it out and um just a couple days ago, I found $1,000 in my [music] business checking account. >> That's awesome, man. That's awesome. Yeah. >> And I owe it to you because if it wasn't for your prompting, I I would have just assumed, you know, no way I would have gotten anything. So, I I wanted to thank you. [music] No, we appreciate you growling and problem with us here. Now, Tom O'Brien. [music] >> Good afternoon, folks. Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFN Monday afternoon, final hour of the trading day, and we got markets flat to slightly in the red. And how about a VIX? We kick it off 1533 as a market right near all-time highs. You have an S&P right now flat on the session. We make all-time highs last Wednesday and we're bumping up against that area this morning. You were as high as 7798. We back off a bit. S&P is flat to the tick as I come to you trading at 7779. NASDAQ 100 under a little pressure today. You got Nvidia down by 2%. They're teaming up with Wall Street for $500 billion. How about that? We'll talk about that one. Nonetheless, NASDAQ off by 52 points. That's a loss of 210% right now in the red 29,782. The Dow off a quarter percent off 137 points 54,15 and the Russell off by about half a percent off 16 points at 3,25. Now the backdrop of some of the market action right now is crude. Okay. And the headline we kick it off with stocks churn as a Hermuse standoff spurs rally in oil. And yeah, there's a little standoff, folks. We're just above 82. We're trading right now up $3.56 up 4.55% 8172 a barrel for light sweet crude now higher crude prices as is the case occasionally pretty remarkable how far we've moved since the jobs number of Friday we give it all back and then some you have a 10-year right now negative by almost 10 ticks 10811 we're above 4.7 folks just like that we're above 4.7 the dollar catches a bid 998 82, but gold as well. Okay, the run's not stopping just yet. Gold up another almost 1%. 44 4250. 4440. How's that for a number, man? 44450. Gold on quite a run. The equities were lower this morning. You're up a bit, holding on to the gains of last week. Now, the equities were outperforming the metal last week. The metal catching up a bit right now. How about silver? Up nearly 4% to 66 bucks right now on silver. You check out some of the equities. Heckler up another 4%. Silver equities. First, Majestic up 3% right now. Yeah, Harmony up 1.1%. Bareric had their numbers and yeah, not living up to expectations down by almost 7%. Pneumont up 3.2% in equities. Now, as I mentioned, Nvidia. So, now this, you know, you look at this heat map. All right, Nvidia's lower. Apple's off by almost 2%. You got Intel, they're raising $15 billion. Okay, so it's not just the story I'm going to tell you with the 500 billion. So Nvidia's lower, some of the chip stocks, right? AMD off by almost 2%. And then you have some of the software. Okay, you got Adobe In it, Palunteer, Autodesk, all in the green today. That's your NASDAQ 100. You jump over the heat map for the S&Ps. Energy obviously and you got crude prices higher. Exxon up 4.3%. Chevron similar. Yeah, Lily in the green as well and some of those memory stocks, SanDisk up by 3% right now. But yes, Nvidia. So Nvidia is down 2.1% right now. And check this story, man. Video game style numbers. I say folks, we're approaching trillion dollar funding packages, right? Trillion dollars, man. A million's now a billion. And the billion's going to become a trillion. This could get announced today. Now, this news breaking in the middle of the day. A group of US investment giants are nearing a partnership with Nvidia. I can't wait to see how this partnership is structured. Like, who's on the hook, right? Nvidia is going to be on the hook. That seems to be the circulatory deal on a $500 billion in funding for the buildout of AI. Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Brookfield, KKR, and they don't really say, you know, it's a partnership. We'll find out nonetheless. You know, if the money Hey, we we'll find out. You're talking about $500 billion, man. And yeah, that was the news right there. Okay, that's actually not good news, right? Which is remarkable that you have the Nvidia rip lower on that news. All right, wait a second. We're we're funding what seems a little circulatory. We'll find out. All right, let's take a look at the volume in these markets right now. You jump over the S&P, we take a look at the futures. I mean, it's going to be tough to compete with some of the run we had list last week even. But we're at about 700,000 contracts right now on the S&Ps. Yeah, look at the NASDAQ. We got an hour to go, but a light day. 343,000 contracts. We jump over the ETF structure. Only doing 25 million on the S&Ps being flat right now. We jump over the Q's. Look at this. Late day Q's $18 million going into 60 million right now. jump over the metals volume. [snorts] You know, check out the the volume, folks. Okay, we had some nice volume. You look at the gold contract, it was decent volume on a weekly of 753, but how about the equities? Watch this. Look at the GDX, man. Look at that. There's your sign of strength, folks, in the equities. Okay, you break away. You take out any part of this consolidation in October. you break apart and take out, you know, months of action and you do it with volume most importantly. Most volume we've seen since going back almost four or five months in the equities GDX and you're a little bit higher today. You got gold up another 42 bucks at 4441 right now. Jump around some of those memory stocks. Micron flat right now in the session when you got SanDisk up by 3.2% right now. talked about the software stocks. Let's take a look at Yeah. Salesforce. Look at this. All right. There's your daily making a run for the highs of June 1st. Yeah, it's a decent move. See if we can get even more volume. Look at the volume we're coming into on a weekly. Almost 89 million on Salesforce. You're up by 2.5% right now. The volatility continues. Take a look at into it. Yeah, bunch of story. Look at the bounce. [snorts and clears throat] Barely a bounce. Into it up by 2.6% today. We jump around to some of the others. Microsoft shares up by 1.1%. Amazon up by 9/10% right now. Google shares in the green as well, but Apple down 1.9% still at the top of its channel at All right, folks. S&P is flat, NASDAQ down by 43. We're coming back with Steve Rhodess. We'll talk some markets. We'll be right back. [music] If you spend [music] any time online researching trading techniques on how to begin your trading journey, you've no doubt come across many folks who push Forex trading as a way to make big money quickly. Unfortunately, there are equally as many stories [music] of these so-called Forex professionals just looking to make a quick buck off aspiring traders without [music] actually teaching the ins and outs of the Forex market. 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So listen to this market folks for sure. You jump over to Cororeweave. Their numbers coming up I believe tomorrow for Coreweave might be after the bell today but this week and yeah quite a nice little pop. Some decent volume but this thing's been under pressure. Wonder if that's a dead cat bounce. But hey, if Nvidia is building out 500 billion dollar structures with entire Wall Street, that's a good thing for everybody. And and I I can't wait to see the details of who's backstopping what. You know, Wall Street's going to put up the money, Wall Street's going to like buy the chips, and then Nvidia is going to like backs stop them or something. That's usually some of the structures that get put into these deals. Can't wait to see it. All right, we jump around. What else we have on this? And yeah, I was talking about this this morning in terms of high-end hotels. JW Marriott Orlando Grand Lakes, which is also adjoining a Ritz Carlton, a thousand room JW Marriott, 2010, and a 582 room Ritz Carlton. You got an 18hole championship golf course designed by Greg Norman. You got 409 acres in a beautiful part of Orlando when you look at that your service in Disney, etc. And they get it for 1.38 billion. And they're going to This is Ryman Hospitality. Now, they already own the Gaylord Palms Orlando if you're familiar with that area. And this is a beautiful hotel, folks. I've stayed there myself. They do have quite a little lazy river that runs around. The the convention space at this hotel is staggering. Yeah. And the two hotels are a joint in terms of the JW Marriott and the Ritz. And then you got a Greg Nor. I mean, that's, you know, hey, I guess a billion dollars doesn't buy what it used to. But that's quite a substantial piece of land with, you know what, 1600 rooms. And these are not normal hotel rooms, folks. You're talking about a Ritz and a JW Marriott on the high end with a whole uh water park and literally a whole water park. They got two different slides, three different slides, I think, with a lazy river. All of it. The joint venture had refinanced the resort with a $750 million commercially backed security loan. They bought it in 2018. Let's see if this says what they bought it for. No, it doesn't. Yeah. Nonetheless, high-end hotels, man. So, yeah, he had a $750 million purchase of the Four Seasons Orlando. I wonder what those included for land. Did they Did they get a Greg Norman golf course in it? Right. Did they get a Ritz Carlton on the top of it? Pretty remarkable. All right, what else we got? Yeah, how about meta? So meta comes out. You're going to see that Nvidia everywhere. Open source its most powerful AI models as they take a swipe at open AI. So this news out today and Zuckerberg puts out quite an essay. Look at that volatility though. Yeah, you know, I didn't see the next acceleration. and got off the air at 10:00 this morning and you had given up all the gains and they ran it one more time. How about that? Right. And you're right back to there. So, new family of open source models. Okay. And he wants to be able to compete with the open source models in China. 6,500 word essay. And yeah, a new AI vision. Well, he's he's on a pan plan a path to take over the world, right? But his plan includes releasing more openweight models and that's where you can basically tinker with how the model is structured yourself. Hey, we're in the early stages, but boy, the first mover for advantage, right? And yeah, for Intel and you know, they should be doing this folks. You know, these equities that are getting this remarkable run to the upside on the premise of the future of their buildout, etc. they should use as in executives should be using some of the equity in these companies like you see happening today with Intel selling 15 billion in stock after AI boosts demand. Now what's crazy here right you jump over to Intel shares. So Intel right now has about five billion shares outstanding and they are a $500 billion company. Not that long ago, right? Last year, for an entire year, from July of 24 to August of 25, this thing chopped around and the entire company was worth about hundred billion at the time. And so, yeah, when you're pushing, you know, five times the share price and you're in a competitive industry, well, you got to raise equity, man. You better believe it. Nonetheless, they push out 15 billion today. And that is one of the things that we've seen happen with some of the you're seeing it play out with Nvidia today, right? You're seeing it play out with Intel today. We've seen it play out before with Google, etc. All right, let's jump around to the banks right now. JP Morgan up by 310% right now. And our man Steve Rhodess folks unfortunately just had a few technical issues. See if we can get him back up. He was trying to do a reboot. See if we get him on. But he's trying to make it happen. But it may not happen today. Yeah. Look [snorts] at this GDX, man. Gold is strong, folks. Okay. Even when the dollar's catching a bid right now, back to where we were on Friday. And boy, cannot not not nothing I cannot believe, but it is a remarkable move when we have a jobs number like we had on Friday, right? We're losing 23,000 jobs in July. Net revisions 103,000. And the market's still saying higher yield, stronger dollar. And on top of that, we're going to hide in gold. Is this not stopping? Gold up nearly 50 bucks right now. with a GDX up by 60 pennies to 9049. Let's check in on SpaceX as I talk. Little bit of a lift. SpaceX up by more than two bucks, up a buck 50, up 1.5%, excuse me, 13518. And we're right back to the IPO price. jump over to Tesla right now up by 210%. So we get CPI number on Wednesday. Okay. And that's probably going to be a much not probably at this point it's going to be a much more important number than the jobs number. The market just goes right past the employment miss and says show me what the show me what the CPI print is before we price out all these hikes out of the market. Look at we're going to we're at 10810 right now. We got tenure above 4.7% and we have crude prices pushing 81.88 with tensions in the Middle East rising. Market handling it well though. S&P is just off by two. NASDAQ off by 42. We're coming right back folks. [music] [music] Many trading newsletters attempt to focus on a narrow set of equities or commodities. While this [music] works for some, it often times misses many opportunities that possess huge gain potential. 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I think I saw that number already up to 110, unfortunately. But yeah, it is quite a crisis. Some of the pictures coming out, a 7.4% magnitude earthquake striking Colombia today. And man, what a tragic scene when you look at something like that. And yeah, you're looking at so right in the middle in between Medí and Cali. You just have a new president take order a few days ago. The quake struck at a depth of 64 miles with tremors felt as far away as Venezuela where they just had their own tragedy. O look at this man. Oh man. And yeah, you jump over this story makes my spikes go up to some bubbleicious headlines, folks. Exempting data center bonds from key securitization rules. So, data center owners, it's a little bit easier to sell assetbased securities not requiring certain disclosures and investor protections. They aren't financial assets that liquidate over time and therefore bonds tied to them aren't subject to the same rules as debt backed by car loans or mortgages, more debt sales. I mean this as we get right Nvidia and Wall Street 500 billion I mean the level of debt on the daily basis Intel pushing out 15 billion that includes risk retention a requirement that companies issuing asset back securities retain some of the debt to better align their interests with investors. No, push off all that debt. Imagine that. So, the issuing companies have to retain some of the risk usually. And no, that's not going to be the case with data centers of all the debt to not retain any risk. And you're never going to believe it, but these requirements were created after the global financial crisis. nothing like recency bias. And yeah, of course, they don't make sense for all types of deals, but I think we can all agree that things are getting a little risky when you talk about the data center buildout and the circulatory nature and the financing that's involved and just the the nature of the intertwined nature of so many companies that are all driving the same industry, the same growth, part of the same deals. And yeah, it's those ownership structures. I guess for example, data center operators that issue ABS already retain a substantial amount of risk in the deals and if they didn't, they wouldn't be able to achieve strong credit ratings. That's some partner talking. And I'd love to see where his bias li bias lies. All right, Vick's rising a bit. So that was the president's truth social there. 12:30 and that's where you saw markets drive down to session lows in terms of you know one of the talking points from Iran when you're talking about you know they wanted payment for the damages of the war and yeah I I pointed out that one that that might not fly and and the president pointed that out as well. You better believe it. Yeah. I don't think I still have it up. Do I? No, I don't have it up. But hey, the market shakes it off, man. Not very worried about the crude scenario just yet. I say just yet as in everything reaches a breaking point, but not worried. Crude's worried, but not reverberating as it has throughout the market. We're seeing it happen in yields a bit. Okay, that one's reeled, but just the market shakes off higher crude, shakes off higher yields, and shakes off a higher dollar pushing 98 9982. Silver up by 4%. Continuing the run. All right, we take a look at that heat map of the S&P other areas. Yeah, we talked about it, man. You know what's wild too is you you get news like that with Nvidia with the 500 billion with the AI buildout. I mean, shouldn't the chip stocks be a little higher, right? Broadcom, AMD, Micron barely in the red. Now, Intel's weighing on that cuz they're raising 15 billion off equity. But that whole sector, there used to be a day where Nvidia would announce a $500 billion deal with Washington to help the build out of AI and this sector would be green. And that's not happening right now. Little dicey. All right, let's jump around to some consumer staples. Walmart. I was in Sam's this weekend. Got a little Sam Sam's action. School starts this week. Had to stock up in the essentials. So, we got highs out here from February of 25 of 10530. And we got highs out here from October of 10958. And yeah, we got the 10679 in July. Now, volumewise, [snorts] you had some nice strength the week of July 27th. We had some selling last week, but that was a positive week. You got a red bar, but that was a positive week. So, two strong weeks there for Walmart with volume. Yeah, they're going to be especially helped if prices abate. You know, if we get a cool down in inflation, they're going to keep all the gains they've got when people have had to come to Walmart, shop there for price sensitivity, and then if inflation does get a hold of, you know, they're going to keep that market share. All right, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in. We got an S&P down by three coming into the closing bell. NASDAQ off by 51. Folks, have a great night. Have a safe night. Enjoy that time out there, folks. Time, our greatest commodity, and I mean it. Enjoy that time, folks. Time flies. Enjoy it. Spend it wisely. Thanks for spending your time with me. Enjoy your night, folks. We'll see you tomorrow morning, 9:00 for the morning market kickoff, folks. Have a great one, folks. Thanks, folks.