Ambassador’s Armchair Discussion | Manila Strategy Forum 2026

also you sufficiently read question us I uh happy to have had the good fortune of serving here in the United States Vietnam back 1960s. So I remember well 1967 when AIA uh came over ticket in our office in the blue section the embassy of Saigon which was only five countries at that time and eventually evolved to to the size it it has now and and the The mission and the role of ASEAN was not entirely clear. It was actually sort of an AEN like creation but it left quite a bit to the imagination and quite to the possibility of future evolution which I think was turned out to be a wise idea. The next time I remember being quite deeply involved with Austria, founded in ' 67, fast forward uh slightly more than a decade when both people were streaming refugees were streaming out of the Indochina into the South China Sea as refuge uh along the uh coast uh of Thailand. in Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines [clears throat] and other places and by that time we have found in our minds at least one very important role for ASA and we we really consulted with them very closely and coordinated our refugee also towards seeing the China refugees during that time. So I think that is maybe a first really concrete example of uh the kind of use to which an institution like a stem uh could be made and of course it has evolved substantially since that time but I remember when I took over my job as Richard Hbert's athlete of Southeast Asia the uh like the 1979 was 1980 in your east station of the state department. I said, "Well, do you have to be playing vice for it?" And two words, follow Assam. And uh that was the vice he get the lead in terms of uh what kind of policies to apply towards the healing issue, the wicked issue in the Chinese refugees. It turned out to be very wise advice indeed and a very important period I'd say in the history of uh our relations not only our relations relations of many countries with the uh countries of Southeast Asia. So um fast forward present um perhaps call on each of our analysts to make comments and then we could have brief general discussion turn to questions from for the Marxism conference and then first to our first panelist Minister Nicholas K of the Australian embassy here in Manila Australia's relations with the Philippines have undergone a significant expansion. The relationship was moved beyond its traditional emphasis on development and education to a more consequential combination that's a value judging of course more consequential combination defense maritime security investment energy and technology among others. The expansion of ties has led to a number of bilateral agreements and to multilateral cooperation with like countries. Uh let me invite Minister K to comment on relations with the Philippines as well as on Australia's priorities more broadly in the region. Over to you. >> Thank you. Thank you very much. >> Thank you very much. Um you're right that the relationship has over over a good years in in 2023. be we upgraded it bilateral to a strategic partnership and and direct I think on the on the uh sort of security and defense star you've seen some real real gains uh the defense relationship has a very long time underpinned a very good secure relationship with the the practicalities Our defense ministers agreed to be with a new defense cooperation agreement by the end of this year and you guys are very well advanced on that and all we're trying to do with that is to sort of excuse me that if we could just have uh silence while we have the uh panel going on because it has to distract us when we hear people continues. >> Oh, thank you. Uh the so the the the new DCA we are looking at trying to uh enunciate the the legal of corporation that we're doing speaking of our new ambition and then passing the ways that we take that I think that would be quite significant. of course uh exercising and and and the the complexity of that exercise is also is also expanding increasing um Australia conducts its largest largest embassy exercise in Philippines exercise alone that was that was last year that was the largest and be even larger next year in 2027 the Philippines conducts its largest uh uh strength exercises in Australia uh by exercise and and others there. We're of course working together on the panel around things like exercise alum as as the complexity and the and the different roles that we're all playing together. Uh I think we do pretty well. Um beyond defense, I think we are seeing more more collaboration inside of infrastructure. We signed an MOU a couple of years ago. We had our ambassador to cyber and critical infrastructure here uh a couple uh last month and and that's an evolving conversation that I think we're all having together including around AI and and the yeah and the and the need for us all to understand that better and speaking more power corporation is longstanding of course we we've worked for a very long time uh including some Philippines together but Even there I think there's there's that strong base of whole of that history of collaboration whilst we also talk threats like like noism you know you saw a horrific school shooting in the throwing so there's discussions about how they're managing that the rise of social media and so on maritime is is is a has has always been a priority there's bilateral relationship and I think we're seeing more um collaboration on civil maritime law. We've recently our foreigners who was here in July for the US meetings and she announced uh the doubling sing maritime operation here as well as providing $10 million drones and trainings around drones to support the Phil Coast Guard in its efforts to protect sovereignty including at the South Korean Sea. So there's there's exciting things kind of happen there uh in in the bilateral relationship. Um I think I would also mention a few other key focuses for that relationship. Climate change relations one. I know that that's something that Gary was talking about earlier. You know we are seeing um we're standing up a new body of cooperation in in the most disasterprone country in the world in the Philippines. uh there's there's work to be done there uh any technic from what will be pre and nu as well as as well as climate and then the economic piece is also coming into place in the in the bilateral relationship where [snorts] the trade investment relationship has always been good but we want it to be better. Uh we made a strategic choice to try and invest increase our investing into the Philippines and see more Australians investing here because we've recognized the strategic value of closer trade investment ties between the two uh and and the need for us to be all in in this part of the world. So all of that work is designed to uh only harness Australia security but back the Philippines is a in a challenging geostrategic environment. Um and when you ask about how flex what else Australia is to do. I would just say our our foreign minister Eddie Wong has has spoken about our priorities in a changing challenging world as focusing on relationships in our region that that help support the rules and help people with our resilience. So they're her four Rs. We had Secretary Lazarus for use earlier. Um and and and we're we're trying to do that as an activist. uh we we've spoken a little bit the first p panel session about strategic space and strategic. I think that was a really interesting conversation. I think what we'll see from Australia um as we seek to build build that for ourselves and build that in in Southeast Asia is is some really activist work. We signed a new treaty on common security in Indonesia. For example, we've we've signed new agreements with Singapore, with Malaysia, with Tino or Le and others as we seek to home build groups and build build relationships alongside two very very longstanding very mad relations of course a strategic ally the United States and a very very close part special strategic part of Japan. So that gives a bit of a bit of a a sim of where where we are and where things go in and you're trying to work. >> Thanks very much. Maybe I could just ask one point of fact here. Is there a point in time recently that day or so where this is where there was park shift in fact she relationship with the Southeast Asian countries just out of curiosity there is one that leaves >> you know like I don't want to overstate it I think ASEAN has always been a really important uh sort of priority for Australia ASEAN's first survival partner in 1964. We're the first comprehensive strategic partner of that was in 2014. Uh so and in terms of ASEAN's failure where there's always deeper including the region and we know that our future will always be tied to this part of the world. So I wouldn't say that there is um there's a particular moment at which at which I do think what I do think is more challenging strategic circumstances rapid changing of pace of change has also seen us you know draw on all the tools we have to seek to sh continue to shape every way that our interests and and the regist Thank you. Thank you for that answer. Let me uh turn now to Charge Ono. Obviously interference of Japan here about Manila. And we must preface whatever we say about Japan by noting that I think the adventual departure of it. Was that my phone? My my dear phone and um a dramatic increase in the interest of Japan uh in extending its security activities far farther beyond its borders 24 than the case. And I think it was an epic shorter of terms also shift. I remember having opportunity to observe some of that taking place and clearly have 15 years even though he's not leading sadly departed us and continues in the spirit of the policy he worked so hard to establish during the vice and his career both as a national security advisor to be crime and as prime minister himself. Um I've a major development and I and a priority for uh the US uh Philippine Society of which I'm the uh American co-chair is the strengthening uh the tri is strengthening the tribal relationship >> amongst Japan the Philippines and the United States their economic their benefits through cooperation on initiatives such as Nusan economic corridor and the strategic advantages of enhanced trilateral security [clears throat] cooperation are compelling. We would welcome your views on Tokyo's ties with the Philippines and the level of support for a strength and a strengthened trilateral relationship. you want to go. Thank you. Thank you very much amasser. And first I'd like to extend my uh deepest appreciation to the host CSIS for uh holding successfully this uh new strategy for uh for the second half >> and uh I'd like to touch upon first on the economic corridor. uh Japan sees the nuclear corridor as a part of expressing of the gic partnership among the big east Japan and the United States. Uh the government of Japan's strongly supports trilateral cooperation as a fast renovation among the three countries was to bring peace, stability and prosperity in the region. Uh the central objective is to transform the eastern economy into a world hub that it will further strengthen global supply chains, accelerate economic development and deliver major economic prosperity. Japan has supported the Philippines uh of its development through ODI for more than 60 years and has been the largest donor for more than two decades through public private partnerships facilitated by Jaika and Jay. Japan is leveraging accumulated expertise and always private capital to support the Philippines development goals under the EONIC. This approach aligns with uh closely aligns with Japan's uh co vision uh free uh vision and our shared commitment to quality infrastructure that upholds transparency, sustainability and the legal law and uh second uh with respect to the security cooperation uh is not only about security cooperation uh Japan regards the Philippines as a key regional partner towards a real reunization of the updated reunion over Pacific. As maritime democracies, our two nations are united by common values and a common interest in preserving peace, stability, free capital and prosperity. uh specifically on security cooperation. It has continued to deepen in meaningful and practical ways over the past few years. as a last nation. The entry the entry into force of RNA in September uh last year has enabled the Japan self-defense forces and the armed forces of the Philippines to work closely together with her in joint exercises humanitarian assistance is as the response. The entry into force of AXA uh just last month is also an important step by enabling the reciprocal provision of supplies and services. At the same time, we continue to advance cooperation in areas such as the information security, official security assistance, defense equipment and technology and bilateral trial exercises improving maritime cooperate kick activity. Japan also views uh coordination I would know among like-minded partners essential to realize the updated uh free and opening state uh no single country can address the region's complex challenges alone cooperation among Japan the Philippines and the United States also with other likeminded partners is valuable for the s of regional peace stability and prosperity as a iation we are promoting such as MCA, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, infrastructure and economic initiatives such as Wonk. Thank you very much. >> I guess one question I perhaps I missed it. Did you say that there was any involvement Japan in actual exercises here that I know? Uh of course uh this May uh we have set uh 14 uh uh 1,400 troops uh to Vikatan exercises and we have subsist your honor. Now let me turn to you. Miss Walker who is the deputy chief states embassy is this 2026 marks 80 years of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Philippines. Right. I I I I invite you to come in on key aspects of the relationship today and of current challenges and opportunities. Uh you arrived in Manila earlier this year and there may be some people here you have yet to meet. So uh we would welcome any personal thoughts you'd have to thank. >> Thank you ambassador. Good afternoon everyone. um thank you to CSIS for organizing this forum for the second year in a row. It is a valuable uh opportunity for all of us to discuss um issues here in the Southeast Asia region, particularly here uh related to the Philippines and our individual bilateral and the multilateral relationships as well as that of Asanag. Uh Ambassador Nagra said, "I've recently arrived in in the Philippines. Uh, I've been there a little over 3 months and what I can say is everything that that I heard about the Philippines before I arrived has been um exceeded in a very positive way. Um, yes, the United States and the Philippines are celebrating not only 80 years of our diplomatic also celebrating 75 years of the mutual defense treaty, the MDT uh between the Philippines and the United States. And then of course the United States has celebrated 250 years of our independence this year. Those anniversaries together led us to do some reflection on our various relationships as well as opportunities as as you've discussed. I think bilaterally there are the United States uh and the full points to join people um certainly in a security space security cooperation. Um you've heard my my co-panelists also mention the Bali katan exercise. That exercise has grown over the years. It started as a specifically bilateral exercise. Um has grown into a multilateral exercise with increasing participation year on year. The participation this year I think included well over 17,000 uh individuals uh that were participating like exercise um as well as the long-standing partners including the Philippines uh Australia key partners like Japan and Canada, New Zealand, the UK and a number of others. The skill and skill of the exercise has also progressed in advance as we take stock of where we are um in the world related to uh maritime security challenges, maritime domain awareness as well as as we utilize new technologies and capabilities. Um I would say also our bilateral relationship is underpinned by longstanding peopleto people and cultural ties. uh you yourself sir are the cruer US Philippines society. There are longstanding relationships between uh Americans and Filipinos across a multitude of sectors and that has helped us expand the relationship and capitalize on new economic opportunities and on opportunities in commercial policy and trade. Uh with that I've also been introduced to the conversation that uh the United States under uh our Trump administration's national security strategy are putting a premium and a focus on increasing our trade relationships and commercial engagements. We have a new ambassador here in US ambassador here in the ambassador Lee Lipton who also recently arrived. And for those who haven't met him, you will you will find him very focused um on business and commercial engagement. And in fact, he will be uh participating tomorrow in the New Zealand economic border reform investor forum that is happening here in Manila. We are focused as as an embassy, as a mission, as a country on seeing our relationship that is very broad and cohesive uh and positive. the Philippines continue to expand. Our security relationship and cultural relationship has dominated the relationship, but we do hope to see additional opportunities in trade, in commerce, in business um become commensurate with that security relationship. Um maybe just before I turn it over, I'll just say a word on our relationship with ASEAN as well. Um unfortunately we had a fourth panelist that was supposed to join us today but he uh was unfortunately delayed. Uh but that is our US ambassador to to AIA ambassador Kevin Kim who is leading the charge there to ensure that not only to support not only our bilateral relationships with each of the ASEAN countries including the Philippines as the 20206 chair but also multilaterally and across the region to capitalize on opportunities for all of us which includes for example um ASEAN um pushing through with the implementation of the digital economy. framework agreed that was agreed last year. Um that's no small feat when you have 10 and now 11 countries agreed um to accept principles that are going to improve interconnectivity among the region improve trading prospects um include uh also support crossber activity in a way that you have not seen before. So they are quite optimistic about ACEL. You're quite optimistic about the opportunities. Um but they are also cognizant of of the challenges. >> Thank thank you very much. Um I think I'd like to just immediately go to questions from uh the participants in the conference if there are any. >> Yes. Why don't you stand up and the microphone will appear? >> Yeah. I hear you. >> Uh just question for all three. Uh we often talk about militaryness and economic competitiveness. uh should strategic resilience and anti-fragility become the measure of national strength. Yeah, it's it's a really interesting question about it taking Australia has been duty about building domestic resilience for some time. I so I do think it's a really important component of national power and understanding how we're able to kind of interact with the region. I think we'll see um some really interesting initiatives happening in the region around this. For example, uh last season on prevention uh that they released in November around the summit which was thinking about some summits preempting the work societing foreign interference for example um that that I think is quite perspective and and and is is certainly a component of the of the part relationship to the Philippines. I know that it's something that we're doing a lot more in the region as we seek to both fuel uh do our domestic fears as well as our ability to shape shield against chain bre. >> Were you suggesting that that be the unique measure or the most important measure? [snorts] >> Uh I mean I I could never see saying that word was the most important and I think that has to be the deterrence capacity of whatever measures you take to bolster the general defenses of the country the democratic countries as a region. I would have put that I think I would have listed that >> first foremost and I was wondering if Ambassador tag risk of breaking the protocol of these discussions if I could ask you a question. All you're hearing is no longer discussions in recent years that Prime Minister F and others succeeded in the Philippines is doing of Australia. So uh what do you think the reaction Is it working? >> The Southeast Asia is safer today than I was 5 years ago. As a result, we're talking about >> [snorts] >> Okay. Steady lang steady. See first of all you talk about west um Australia Australia can't focus All these Bish sees as fundamentally direct to engagement. Huh? >> Tripod tripod. extension tripod. Okay. And so I think it's a very responsive and I think the country should look out more and the reality is China's success over years has come if you will feel if you stand up you will be cautious and you won't belong as he said that shows that countries will not be alone. I think he's very powerful and the the reality is it has severely constrained China's ability to use some of its forces. I think you compare what has gotten in recent years with Sat Thomas Schaw. One thing that has been a surprise is that China has not been more coercive economically towards the Philippines. And I would argue that part of that is because the Phil case is effective in developing this web of miniaterals which creates the sense that there actually would be support. >> So I think it's very effective. I think it's something that should do. I think that as the US we have to be humble. >> The days in which we can drive this are probably gone. The ways in which it it is to our advantage are not. And so the key is not appearing to be pushing countries to do things which they think aren't in their interests, but rather to find ways to support them to do the things they believe are. >> Thank thank you for that. Thank you very much. >> Yes, of course. >> I'd just like to go back to the uh original questioner uh who was asking about the measures of resilience. And what I would say is I don't think there's a single measure, right? I think all of these things have to work together, whether it's diplomacy, information, military, or security or economics. Um, what our countries have all learned over time is the most effective strategies are those that are cohesive and work together and not siloed. And so we heard uh Secretary Lazero this morning reference uh President uh Marcos's statement that he has been saying for at least the last two years that economic security is national security. Uh military security is national security. All of these things have to work well together. from a US perspective in our relationship specifically with the Philippines um we are not asking the Philippines to choose uh but we are looking at areas where there is an intersection of interest those that are in the national interest of the United States those that are in the natural national interest of the Philippines that we can work together on that puts us both in a better position makes us safer makes us stronger and makes us more prosperous that is the goal And so in my view there is not a single metric of resilience. >> Uh can I comment? >> Uh thank you. Thank you for the question and uh as ambassador pointed out that Korean open is originated from prime minister policy and uh uh this year uh prime minister Takichi delivered a speech in Vietnam on the updated uh free and open in the Pacific and uh uh in any case uh that uh that uh update and into the elements of IT security. But in any case our cooperation is not directed to the country and today we face challenges that must be addressed by members of entrance community and this is an error that for cooperation among countries and recent development security fields reflects a growing trust and confidence between Japan and the Philippines and uh uh our commitment to maintaining strengthening the free and open international order based on the rule of law is well recognized by international community and this uh fundamental principle should be upholded by our like countries. Thank you. >> Well, I can't see very well out there that other somebody shout out over there. >> Go ahead. Yep. Uh good afternoon everyone. I am uh Alfredo Auan, >> a student in public safety administration. My question is uh you were a student. You you're a student. >> Yeah, student. >> You don't look like a student. I I am actually a retired justice of the court of appeals but I am now enrolled in the masters of public safety administration. Now considering the complexities of the world today and might is power, my question is uh how can this strategic forum be translated into actual capabilities of public safety institutions in the Philippines like the armed forces, the Philippine National Police, the Coast Guard, the local government units. I don't think I fully got the question. How can you you look like you >> you've got an answer. >> I have an answer. I don't know. Good answer. >> And thank you, sir, for for the question. I think um >> the way I would answer your question is this. I think the institutions and the entities that you mentioned whether in the Philippines or or elsewhere um the armed forces, the police, the the local government governments, um again they are all parts of a whole and so I don't think like as as much as we love the the CSIS strategy forum here in Manila, >> this is not the the body that will um execute or take the action but this is the body that maybe provides some thoughtprovoking ways to consider different ways to approach a problem that then these entities are able to within their own structures. Um what is the benefit one of the benefits I think of a forum like this is an assembled group I don't know how large this room is but probably approaching a thousand people uh of sinkers doers from all sectors, private sector, public sector, think tanks, academia, and elsewhere. Um, you have some of the greatest minds here where the value is finding those people that have something uh an expertise or an idea that you can implement in some of these institutions and capitalize on their presence here in Minnesota. Just to very quickly add I think all three I don't want to speak for everybody but Australia, United States and Japan have a record of working government agencies as we seek to kind of uh take forward some of the conversations that we're having today. For example, uh across town right now there is there are Australian experts and other experts doing your sea training for example. Uh we we with me we a diverse range of members of the Philippine bureaucracy whether it's from the the coast guard to the the um president's office and beyond. uh you know over time you we're currently running our 10th version of that training that discussion for example and that that's involved 850 uh Philippine officials o over the course over the course of the the training. So it is it's an ongoing conversation about bringing in these ideas I think into into the ways we work individually and the ways we work together. >> Thank you. And uh I'd like to point out a quick uh thanks that uh Japan has long been supporting uh Philippine Coast Guard uh and Japan has provided lots of coach ships and also uh sent uh uh coast guard official [snorts] to PCG uh to train and also we have uh received the number of uh uh cadets uh through uh to our academy coast guard academy in Japan and uh also uh with respect to the security assistance I'd like to introduce that uh uh Japan has introduced OSA official security assistance program and Japan has recognized the Philippines as a key service partner uh Philippine was the first recipient of this OSA in 2023 three and for the past three years, Japan has uh uh provided uh uh or agreed to provide it uh uh to provide coastal uh coastal surveillance radar system uh or like maritime domain uh domain awareness and co surveillance capabilities etc. So that actually we have uh transformed uh our word uh our commitment uh our words into action. Thank you very much. Any other question? Did you see something out there? Yes. Okay. Back there. >> Right. Hi, thank you very much. W and Bernard from Contact. No, I'm just going to point this one out, sir, that recently the UN adopted a new map making Africa and the other epitorial countries through to its size and the countries nearer to the poles actually relatively smaller. than the map we are used to. You wanted to pick your brain s. How do you think will this affect the security discussion centering on small states and emerging economies aware that perception shapes reality? What would mean in practical perspectives? Thank you very much. So, if somebody who actually could hear and understand the question try to answer it, I'd be grateful. But I' I'd have to have it completely repeated and nobody look I I guess as a son of a geographer I better start. Um I'll just say um I I think it's a really interesting point that you're making about relative size and relative weight and how we >> how we come at security challenges and how we come at our our own understandings. I mean I think we've seen CSIS is a tremendous example. There's been a lot of work done over the last 10 years about trying to understand comparative power of you know the law institute in Australia aspie as well as big Australian thinking they do they do some really good work about understanding the various natures of power which goes to your earlier question including how do we think about the weight that these countries have in the international system and as the system is changing quite significantly including in New York I do think those dynamics are getting more and more, you know, more and more interesting. And I think we are all working to to ensure that our interests remain at before and that we we're we're finding collaboration where perhaps collaboration wasn't an option before uh in in in lots of places. That's >> I think one message that comes across from this discussion is uh the fact that uh there are these issues that we're dealing with and the situation in this part of the world and the steps that are taken in order to uh deal with them and then there's how we talk about them and uh so I think a number of the comments that have been made in during the course of our discussion have been well you got to be careful about how you talk about this and I I couldn't agree more um but it it it presents a challenge sometimes when you're in a >> in a public forum >> take away from that survey is that uh failability for the United States um particularly here in the Philippines is quite high um at upwards at 80% uh and across the region it is nearly as high but maybe a little bit less and I think a lot of that depends on the time the survey taken it in terms of what is on people's minds um I think as one of the earlier panelists this morning mentioned and it might have been announc uh that said you know some of the conceptual policy issues uh we can talk about all they want like your average citizen thinks first and foremost about their live wits and their hockey and so depending on the time that the surveys are taken that can also influence there of the economic shocks that have occurred or other uh issues that that pass favorability. I would say from the point of view of the United we are encouraged by the survey results that we see across the board. Uh yes, of course there there were flows. Uh but we feel her comfortable that uh at least our relationship with the Philippines are quite favorable and we'll do everything we can to ensure that our uh partnership and bilateral relationship continues to um push towards. So please join me in our threeable panels representing Australia, United States. Nice. Thank you very much for our distinguishing panelists. We'll go on break now and we'll resume our nice panel up at 8 p.m. is see It hurt.