After Ukrainian counteroffensive near Liman, the situation for Russia was becoming critical
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Recent reports from ZWAR correspondent Anatoli Radov highlight a critical deterioration in the situation for Russian troops around Lyman and Ivanovka in northern Donbass. Despite recent claims by Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the capture of Spytahor, ground realities suggest that Russian units are facing severe operational difficulties while leadership remains unresponsive to the crisis on the front lines. Radov has directly addressed the Russian command structure, urging them to intervene before the situation becomes untenable, emphasizing that if the leadership does not act, the soldiers on the ground will be left to fend for themselves against overwhelming pressure.
The strategic significance of this breakthrough is underscored by analysis from AENT researcher Clement Mullen, who notes that Ukraine's Third Army Corps successfully severed the Russian salient north of Lyman after four months of intense counteroffensive operations. This maneuver not only liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory but also represents one of Ukraine's most pivotal victories of 2026, effectively halting and pushing back the Russian offensive in the region. The operation's importance extends beyond mere territorial gain, as it neutralizes a key springboard that Russia had been using to exert pressure on Lyman and potentially advance toward Isium and Slavansk, thereby altering the operational balance in favor of Ukrainian forces.
The geography of the battlefield plays a crucial role in the current stalemate and defensive capabilities, with the sector's dynamics heavily influenced by a series of rivers and natural barriers that have proven difficult for Russian forces to overcome. The Chrysaya River Valley remains under Russian control, while Ukraine maintains commanding positions east of the Zerabets River, allowing them to fire upon enemy troops from the heights; capturing the eastern bank of this river required enormous losses for Russia, particularly in the Turney region. Further west, the small Nitrius River serves as an additional defensive line that Russian forces can only cross in small groups, while the formidable natural obstacles of the Oscll and Severerski denets rivers present nearly insurmountable challenges to any further Russian advances.
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ZWAR correspondent Anatoli Radov wrote
on his telegram channel about the dire
situation for Russian troops in the area
of Lyman and Ivanovka, northern Donbass.
His messages appeared against the
backdrop of recent statements by
Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry
of Defense about the alleged capture of
Spyatagor. According to Radov, Russian
units in this area are experiencing
serious problems and judging by his
posts, those at the top are not
responding to the situation. Radov later
addressed the Russian leadership
directly using the name Uncle Va as an
obvious reference to Putin. Radov also
called on other major pro-war
ctographers and Z channels to raise the
issue. Gentlemen up there, Ivanovka is
currently being defended by 254 until
the thaw. Maybe we should take a look
and maybe help. Or don't you [ __ ]
understand what's wrong there, Uncle Va?
What are they telling you there? It's
getting pretty bad here. Pay attention,
Uncle Va, if you don't give a [ __ ] then
the guys here don't give a [ __ ] Raise
it up, Rybar, and more. It's bad on the
Lyman. Radov wrote, "These reports are
important in the context of recent
events in the Lyman sector." AENT
researcher Clement Mullen previously
wrote that Ukraine's third army corps
managed to cut off the Russian salient
north of Lyman. He assessed this as one
of Ukraine's most important victories of
2026. After 4 [music] months of
counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed
forces in the Lyman sector, the
Ukrainian Third Army Corps managed to
cut off the Russian salient north of
Lyman and liberate over 200 km of
territory. He estimates this to be one
of Ukraine's most important victories of
2026, potentially pushing back the
Russian offensive in northern Donbass.
Oent researcher Clement Mullen reports
that this area was of great operational
importance to Russia. This salient
served as a springboard for pressure on
Lyman and potentially could have opened
the way for Russian troops to Isium and
Slavansk. After four months of the Lyman
counteroffensive, the Ukrainian Third
Army Corps managed to cut off the
Russian salient north of Lyman and
liberate more than 200 square kilometers
of territory. Mullen wrote, according to
him, the significance of the operation
is due not only to the size of the
liberated territory, but also to its
geography. Heavy fighting had already
taken place in this area in May 2022,
September 2022, and May 2025. At that
time, after two years of heavy losses,
Russia managed to capture several key
Ukrainian positions. Mullen explains
that the defense and offensive in this
sector depend on several rivers. The
first is the Chrysaya River Valley from
Spattovo to Crema, which remained under
Russian control. To the west lies the
Zerabetz River. For a long time, Ukraine
controlled positions several kilometers
east of it and could fire on Russian
troops from the commanding heights
across the river. It took enormous
losses for Russia to take control of the
eastern bank of the Zerabats, especially
in the Turney region. But reaching the
western bank was extremely difficult.
Crossing the river in open terrain was
only possible via several dams. [music]
Beyond Zerabets lies a highland that
Russia captured last year. Mullen calls
this area strategically important.
Further west lies the small Nitrius
River, the next line of Ukrainian
defense, which Russian forces could only
cross in small groups. The last major
natural barriers are the Oscll and
Severerski denets which are extremely
difficult to cross.
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