Video summary
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved a historic and shocking victory in the recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia, regions historically part of East Germany where the party is particularly strong. In Saxony alone, the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, nearly doubling their support since 2021 and capturing 39 out of 83 seats, which brought them just three short of an absolute majority. This result represents their strongest performance in any German state election to date, effectively solidifying their position as the largest political party in the country. In stark contrast, the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had led Saxony for 24 years, saw its vote share plummet to 17.2% and lost 15 seats, highlighting a dramatic shift in the political landscape that leaves the traditional establishment struggling to maintain relevance.
The rise of the AfD is deeply rooted in specific historical contexts and evolving party ideologies that have shifted from economic skepticism to strong nationalist themes. Founded in 2013 amidst European financial crises where Germany felt burdened by bailouts for Southern Europe, the party initially focused on opposing EU overreach. However, following the massive migration crisis of 2015, the party pivoted to emphasize border control, national identity, and social cohesion. This evolution has created a distinct divide between the more liberal Western wing and the radical, ethno-nationalist Eastern wing, yet these factions have united around core issues like strict asylum rules, deportation policies, and a cultural definition of German identity that prioritizes heritage and skin color over assimilation. Consequently, the AfD has positioned itself as the only major party willing to address what its supporters perceive as the existential threats posed by mass migration and Islamic radicalism, arguing that mainstream parties are evading these realities.
Beyond migration, the AfD's electoral success is driven by two other critical failures of the German establishment: energy policy and economic stagnation. The speaker argues that the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the rapid transition to green energy have left Germany with dangerously high energy costs, crippling its industrial base and making it uncompetitive globally. Furthermore, the country suffers from a "mixed economy" characterized by heavy regulation, powerful labor unions sitting on corporate boards, and a lack of innovation, particularly in emerging technologies like electric vehicles. The AfD capitalizes on the angst caused by these economic struggles, especially in the aging population of East Germany where old factories are closing and unemployment is rising. While the party mixes these legitimate economic concerns with controversial stances such as pro-Russian policies and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, it offers a narrative that acknowledges these problems even if its proposed solutions are viewed as incompatible or extreme by critics.
Looking ahead, the political future of Germany faces significant uncertainty as the AfD's momentum grows despite a "firewall" erected by other parties who refuse to form coalitions with them. Currently, the AfD holds enough seats in Saxony to govern but lacks the support of any other party, creating a precarious situation where they cannot easily implement their agenda without cooperation. The speaker notes that while the German government monitors the party due to its extremist elements, this approach may be counterproductive given the persecution of right-wing extremists compared to left-wing ones. As the AfD continues to win votes across East Germany and potentially even in Berlin, the traditional political spectrum finds itself unable to offer constructive alternatives on migration, energy, or the economy. The speaker concludes that unless new voices emerge to address these pressing issues with viable solutions, the rise of ethno-nationalist populism will likely continue, potentially leading to a political realignment that could have profound and unpredictable consequences for Germany's future.
Read the full video transcript
What wasn't really surprising but still
shocking to many people. The AFD, the
the right-wing political party
alternative for Germany in um in Germany
won
um won an election in um Saxony and
Halt. Now Saxony and Halt is a region of
Germany that used to be part of eastern
Germany. It's part of the eastern part
of the country where the AFD, the
alternative for Germany is particularly
popular. But these numbers were pretty
astounding. I mean, alternative for
Germany, we won 43.8% of the vote,
more than twice. It doubled. It's
showing from 2021.
It received 39 of 83 seats. It's a very
close to a majority, three short of a
majority.
the CDU which was the governing uh
political party of Germany and was the
governing political party at Saxony
fell to 17.2%.
And 15 seats
after it has led the state for 24 years.
This is the strongest state result that
the FD has received uh in any election
in any election in Germany. Um and uh it
basically solidifies AFD is probably
right now the largest political party in
Germany in Germany.
So I thought we'd spend a little time on
you know maybe thinking or or talking
about the history of AFD and who they
are and what they are.
So it was founded in 2013 and think
about what 2013 the year 2013 was. I
think it's important
2013 saw the EU
come out you know so first come out of
the great recession of 2008 which
devastated Europe which was incredibly
destructive uh it saw a deep recession
but whereas the United States starting
in 2009 kind of came out of it and even
though growth was slow coming out of it
it still came out of that recession and
growth continued throughout the 2000s.
In Europe,
the great financial crisis was
immediately followed by
the Greek financial crisis and the
southern Europe financial crisis where
Greek Greece
uh basically was bankrupt and required a
a massive bailout from the EU. A
complete change in the way the European
Central Bank worked in order to help
bail out Greece. And where Germany and
northern Europe was generally viewed as
having to subsidize, bail out, southern
European countries, southern European
countries that have been irresponsible
for decades, borrowing money uh and and
and growing uh growing state employment
and uh and and pension plans and and
state enterprises and killing their
private enterprises.
And basically the Germans
the at the time and still to this day
the richest country in Europe were stuck
with the bill. They were the ones paying
for all this.
So this is a time of great angst in uh
in Europe particularly in places like
Germany. Why are we paying the bill? Why
are we bailing out Greece and Spain and
Italy? Spain and Italy less directly,
although Spain pretty directly uh
through the again the European Central
Bank. But why are we bailing out all
these people? We've been responsible.
As a consequence of being responsible,
we're relatively rich. They're
irresponsible and poor and now we have
to bail them out.
So as a consequence um an economist by
the name of burn and I'm sure I'm
mispronouncing these names and other US
skeptics founded AFD as basically a
project opposed to the European Union.
its early identity combined opposition
to the US own bailouts
and they were somewhat market oriented
not not really and they had these
national conservative themes Germany
first
Petri displaced Luke in 2015 and
remember what 2015 was 2015 was the
migration crisis you got mass migration
coming out of places like Syria,
primarily Syria, where there was a civil
war, people were running for their lives
and they had got an idea that Europe was
open and not only was Europe open, they
would be welcome and they would get
warfare checks as they walked into
Germany. They would get a check and they
would get an apartment, which was
actually true.
So uh in 2015 you got mass migration
primarily
uh to Germany and to Sweden.
You know other countries that were less
hospitable to migrants were less
provided less welfare to migrants the
migrants didn't stay there like Denmark.
The migrants walked through Denmark to
get Sweden but they didn't stay in
Denmark. Denmark was not as hospitable
to the migrants as Sweden was. They went
to Sweden. When you've got robust
welfare states that are willing to
support illegal migrants, migrants who
are undocumented,
um the migrants go to those countries.
So
AFD basically changed its orientation
starting in 2015
uh to emphasize less economics
and much more issues of borders,
migration, national identity, social
cohesion, what they call social
cohesion.
And the party also developed strong
eastern and western wings. Remember
Eastern uh Eastern Europe, Eastern
Europe, Eastern Germany, Eastern Germany
was much more has been since the
unification has been generally much more
statist
than western Germany which is much more
oriented towards call it liberal ideas
around individual liberty and freedom.
Eastern Eastern Germany is much more
inculcated
with the old communist ideas. Now
there's also another pattern that
happens between east and west which is
important.
Young people in eastern Germany left.
They went to West Germany. That's where
the jobs were. That's where the tech
was. That's where the future was.
Eastern Germany was old and focused on
manufacturing. But a lot of
manufacturing pl plants in eastern
Germany
were old and unproductive. They were
they were inherited from the from from
from the communists. And while western
Germany invested a lot of money in in
Eastern Germany and tried to build up
the manufacturing base in Eastern
Germany, young ambitious people left
Eastern Germany and went to the west.
So eastern Germany is significantly
older
older the population is older than
western Germany.
So uh eastern leaders
uh people like Bjon Hok
um and uh pushed a much more radical and
still push a much more radical ethnist
and and populist line.
uh
and uh while while west were you know
more open. So for example the leader of
the uh western Germany AFD
is a lesbian whereas the eastern German
AFD is very very intolerant towards
gays.
Uh her name is Alice Weedle. weed right
but the reality is that the east and
west unite because that what's give it
gives us it this national power and
because they agree on uh the fundamental
issues which we'll get to the most
important one the most important one I
think in this election the most
important one uh in the future is
migration and nationality
um AFD stands for much tighter asylum
rules
deportation or re migration policies
and more cultural or ethnic conception
of German identity.
So, so to be German is to be white. It's
to be heritage German. It's it's not to
be, you know, immigrants are not real
Germans. Now they in their plaque they
do say you know assimilated like
assimilated Muslims who have assimilated
into German society they're okay you
know they they can stay and they're okay
they count
but ultimately to really be German
is to embrace
skin color and heritage.
So a huge issue is migration and
particularly uh the issue of Islam and
we'll come back to that in a little bit.
The second is European integration.
They resent the idea that Brussels gets
to, you know, determine Germany's fate.
They want a transfer of authority on
more and more issues back to the nation
states.
They want to replace the current
European Union with a looser
association.
Um, and they're hostile to the euro,
although they don't have plans to do
away with the euro and and move back to
a German currency.
One of the most troubling uh I mean they
have many problem troubling views, but
one of the more troubling views is the
view on Russia and Ukraine. Uh they
believe in removing all the sanctions on
Russia, renewing the purchase of Russian
gas,
fixing the pipelines.
Um and uh they oppose any support for
Ukraine.
They don't want Ukraine in NATO. They
don't want Ukraine in the European
Union.
They are of all the right-wing parties
in Europe right now, they are the most
explicitly pro-Russia of all the uh
right-wing political parties.
on energy and climate. They're actually
quite good. They reject decarbonization
mandates. They uh support fossil fuels.
Uh they want to reverse uh the exit from
coal. And they definitely want to return
to nuclear power.
And again, this is another issue I want
to come back to in a minute. On
economics and welfare, you know, they
want to do they're very Republican.
They want to cut taxes and they want
some deregulation,
but they also
are very much in favor of social
populist benefits. They're big on the
welfare state. They're huge believers in
the welfare state. They want to expand
family supports. They want higher
pension uh uh for for retired people,
right?
and they want to limit the amount of
debt the German government can take on.
And then finally, in culture and
government, they're socially
conservative. They're anti-LGBTQ.
They're um uh you know, they they want
to they emphasize in all of their
literature the role of the
traditional family, the big law and
order, direct democracy. They want more
um what do you call it? National
referendums for decision makers. because
they want people to vote on more stuff.
So, it's a party that is very much a
mixed bag.
A lot of bad stuff, some good stuff,
but two issues
where
I think really dominate why they're
winning. two issues that really, if you
will, the establishment,
the the conventional right and uh or the
the center right and the center left of
German politics have not addressed, have
not faced up to and have not found
solutions for and therefore the German
people are turning against them. And the
two issues are migration and energy.
And I'd say the third issue
which they have no solution for that is
AFD is the mixed economy. So you've got
migration, energy, and the mixed
economy. The three things that are
turning people away from regular
politics and making it possible for this
political party. This is a a political
party on the left which is communist and
it just it's just horrific. It's just
awful. Um that is also on the rise.
Now
what is it about these issues? Well,
migration, mass migration from a civil
war of people just running for their
lives and getting welfare and not being
expected to integrate into society and
assimilate is a problem. It's always
been a problem.
particularly Islamic immigration and the
unwillingness of the authorities to
recognize the challenge of Islamic
immigration. That is you get terrorist
attack after terrorist attack after
terrorist attack and the government does
nothing and says nothing. They typically
hide the fact that the terrorist was an
immuslim. They hide the Islamic Islamist
affiliation.
Germany has not banned the Muslim
Brotherhood, has not put any curbs on
radical mosques.
So it's the
continuing tolerance
of the German elites, German
intellectuals and German political
parties towards Islamism, towards
radical Islam, towards the kind of Islam
that comes to Europe in order to turn
Europe into an Islamic state
that people are justifiably rebelling
against. They don't know what a rational
alternative would be. So they embrace
whatever the AFD is proposing because at
least the AFD is proposing something. At
least the AFD is being honest and saying
there is a problem.
The governing the major political
parties are evading the problem
completely and denying that it exists
and that there is something to be done
about it.
Now that's changing a little bit.
You know, Europe is now uh on the verge
of approving a bunch of new laws that
will make it easier to deport people to
get rid of criminals. But Europe needs
to ban the Muslim Brotherhood. It needs
to ban radical mosques. It needs to make
clear that it will not accept an
ideology that calls for using violence
in order to
bring about a revolution in Europe.
it needs to take much harsher steps
against radical Islam.
So the fact that since 9/11
Europe and the United States have been
evading
the nature of this enemy and that it's
obvious to the common people that the
enemy is there more in Europe than in
the US because the US doesn't really
face many terrorist attacks and the US
there not a lot of Muslims here. many
many more Muslims in Europe, they see it
on a day-to-day basis. They're
confronted with it on a day-to-day basis
and their politician are giving them no
guidance in terms of what to do about
it.
So, they're the one political party
saying there's an issue here. There's a
problem here and we're going to do
something about it.
And
there's no question that the German
people are responding to that. Right.
The second part of that is energy.
Energy that has consequences. For
example,
for industrialization.
You know, Germany is an industrial
country where the industry is fading
because it cannot afford to produce
stuff because of the high cost of
energy. Never mind the high cost of
employment, but the high cost of energy.
And yet again, everybody admits that it
was a mistake to shut down the nuclear
power plants. Nobody has a plan on what
to do about it. Nobody has a plan to
turn them back on. Nobody's willing to
take to to take that action.
Nobody has a plan on how to,
you know, get the coal plants going
again and and actually get Germany back
to producing electricity and driving
costs down
and again the AFD comes in whether they
you know and and and unless they're
absolutely right, you know, stop this
decarbonization that is destroying our
capacity to compete internationally. we
can't run our industries, you know,
economy is going to tatter us. You know,
we need to fix our energy policy. And
again, it's the failure, particularly
right of center political parties to do
something about it that has left an
opening for the AFD.
And finally, there's just a mixed
economy. the fact that Germany is
suffering from the fact that it has a
heavily heavily heavily regulated
economy where there's very little
entrepreneurship there's very little
innovation
where the old industrial base is slowly
dying
because of the cost of energy but not
just also because they haven't kept up
with technology they can't compete with
the Chinese on electric cars and the
cost of labor is very high possibly
because they've given such a huge role
to labor to labor unions in running for
example many of these companies. So
labor unions sit on the boards of most
German companies.
So the mixed economy is failing in
Germany and again nobody's offering a
solution.
And add to that the growing the the
incredible growth in the welfare state
and how how are we going to fund this?
Where's the money going to come from?
And of course AFD has no solution to
that. It's not proposing a solution to
that.
But the angst
that the failure of the mixed economy is
causing the angst that the failure of
the mixed economy is causing here in the
United States has brought about the rise
of populism. The angst that the mixed
economy is causing in Germany is is
bringing about the rise of the AFD. So
migration
legitimate some legitimate not all. The
AFD is not legitimate. It's ethnosentric
nonsense about German identity. I It's
not legitimate in terms of in terms of
going after all migrants. It's it's it's
not legitimate again in terms of
focusing on on on heritage. But in terms
of seeing a real problem with Islam,
they're absolutely right.
The fact that they see a real problem
with shutting down the nuclear energy
and and and walking away from fossil
fuels, absolutely right.
And then there's the mixed economy which
just creates a mala throughout Germany
particularly in the east where again
these industry and these factories are
shutting down and people are unemployed
and people are afraid and people are old
and uh and they they they they
romanticize old communist East Germany
where their jobs were secure and they
didn't have to worry.
So, uh, you know, sadly, it takes these
legitimate concerns and mixes it in with
ethnoism.
It mixes it in with statistic policy. It
mixes it in with admiration for Putin.
And I think the support of Russia is not
just practical we need the gas. It's the
same thing that drives many on the right
in the United States admire to to be on
the Russia side. It's admiration for
Putin. He is the real representative of
Western civilization. He's fighting
against gays. He's fighting against, you
know, he's fighting for white
Christianity. Of course, Russia has more
Muslims than Germany, but we'll put that
aside. Um,
so it's it's sad that Germany is falling
for another ethnationalist
political party. Last time they did that
didn't turn out too well. I don't think
it's going to turn out the same way this
time. But I don't see anybody with a
counter, anybody standing up to them,
anybody having, you know, constructive
proposals around migration, around
energy, around the economy,
they can stop the rise of AFD or much
worse.
Now politically the AFD has a problem
right now because all of the other
political parties have basically said we
will not work with AFD. We will not sit
in a government with AFD. So for example
in Saxony they're just short of a
majority but they still need three more
seats.
None of the other political parties
would grant them support. How can they
govern? They can't govern without that
support. They could form a minority
government, but even that would need
some support on some issues from other
parties.
This idea of a firewall the German
parties are erected against AFD, it's
not clear that it can hold.
And if we go to elections again,
you know, they might do better.
So, you know, should the FD be denied
representation? They got 44% of the
vote.
They're not allowed to form a coalition
government with other political parties,
cuz other political parties, nobody will
sit with them in a in a government.
I mean, one of the things that you will
discover is that when these populist
political parties get into power, they
discover they don't know what to do and
that all their
ideas don't work in practice and cannot
be implemented and and you know
they they I I think in Europe of today
they will moderate dramatically
but you know so we will
AFD is also under constant monitoring by
the German central government because
they are, you know, extremists.
That is wrong. You know, people are
persecuted in Germany for holding
extreme ideas uh on the right, not on
the left, never on the left, but on the
right. Um because of the experience of
Nazism, but that is wrong. That is not
what freedom is about.
the party itself. It's it's hard to say
what the future of the party is going to
be. It mixes a lot of elements that are
kind of incompatible
like the they're anti- bureaucracy from
Brussels and and from the German state
and failed migration policies, but they
embrace nationalist collectivism,
you know, bigger welfare, more
bureaucracy and welfare, protectionism.
the they have the the national economic
protectionist kind of uh policies
and the you know the mall invasion about
Russia and then of course they're led by
a lesbian which the people in the east
hate the fact that she's a lesbian
that's unacceptable what exactly happens
here is very hard to tell how this all
develops is very hard to tell but it
looks like uh AFD will win probably
three different
parts of East Germany
They might even win the city of Berlin,
which would be quite astounding given
how young the city is. And the reality
is that young people attracted to a
new,
you know, they've got
not fresh ideas, but ideas that seem to
be addressing the challenges that people
face in Germany right now. Even if
they're addressing them badly, at least
they're acknowledging they exist.