A Well-Adapted UK

Hello, I'm Baroness Brown, chair of the Adaptation Committee of the Climate Change Committee. Welcome to this video about the CCC's Well Adapted UK report. It's part of our independent assessment for the fourth climate change risk assessment. And our report fulfills the committee's statutory duty to advise the government on the risks that the UK is facing due to climate change, something we do under the Climate Change Act every 5 years. It's now nearly 20 years since the Climate Change Act was passed. Despite that, the country is still not prepared for climate change. We know from survey evidence that the British public is concerned. And they have good reasons to be worried. But the government is not yet taking steps to deliver the change we need. In an increasingly unstable world, being well adapted to climate change, being resilient to the changing climate, is fundamental to delivering the food, the energy, and the economic security that everyone is talking about now. Over the last 18 years, we've given advice on three climate change risk assessments. But this hasn't moved the dial. We haven't really seen any major progress in our preparedness for the changes we're already experiencing, let alone those to come. So this time around, my committee has done something different. We've looked at the risks, and we've set out evidence-based advice on solutions and on targets. Solutions to tackling the biggest threats facing the UK, such as extreme heat, flooding, and drought, and targets, achievable and cost-effective targets for mid-century in some of the key areas. We know what needs to be done to prepare. Delivering solutions in just three areas, better cooling, flood protection, and a more secure water supply, would make a major dent in the scale of the action required. This is a message about hope, not despair. We can all be involved in action that really makes a difference. To inform this report, we've carried out an extensive analytical research program, gathered evidence from the country's leading academics, and engaged with politicians, businesses, and people across all nations of the UK. This allows us to provide the best possible advice to government on a well-adapted UK. But what does well-adapted actually mean? This report answers that question by setting out how a lack of preparedness for climate change threatens our society, and by outlining the practical, deliverable actions we can take. I'm now in my 70s, and it's very clear to me that today's weather in the UK is nothing like that of my childhood. It's even startling just to reflect on how much earlier my hydrangeas flower than they did when we moved into our current house some 20 years ago. And to explain all that, I'm now going to hand over to Dr. Richard Millar, the director of adaptation at the Climate Change Committee. Richard is going to explain the current and future reality of our changing climate, what we are already experiencing, and what we should expect in the future. >> Thank you, Baroness Brown. The committee's advice centers around what the UK can do to adapt to the levels of climate change we are seeing, and what we are likely to experience in the decades ahead. It also looks at how we might respond to the worst-case future scenarios. Today's world is much warmer than even a few decades ago. Most of the global warming since the Industrial Revolution has happened in just the last few decades, and 2024 was the warmest year on record to date globally. The unprecedented heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires seen in recent years right across the world, linked to this record global warmth, show the devastating impacts of extreme weather on societies that remain poorly adapted to a changing climate. All of this warming is being driven by ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and land use change around the world. On average, the world is already around 1.4° C hotter than in pre-industrial times, and is warming at record rates. Until global emissions fall to net zero, global warming will continue. This means that further climate change is inevitable and must be planned for now. Based on the current trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions, warming will reach around 1.5° C by the early 2030s, and is likely to rise to around 2° C by 2050. On a worst-case path for global emissions, at the end of the century, temperatures could rise much, much further. If the climate responds at the upper end of current estimates, global warming could reach or exceed 4° C by 2100. Whilst it is still possible to keep warming to the range of the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal of well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels, it requires more ambitious global emissions reductions than we are currently seeing. It is essential that efforts to adapt to climate change and emissions reductions go hand in hand. The UK needs to continue to support global decarbonization while also preparing for the likelihood that the well below 2 degrees Celsius temperature goal isn't met. In this report, the advice focuses on two things. Firstly, preparing proactively. The UK is not prepared to deal with climate risks it is already facing, or those that would come in the quarter of a century after 2050 under this 2 degrees Celsius global warming level. Secondly, we need to consider the possibility of around 4 degrees Celsius global warming by 2100 as part of adaptation planning. This is particularly the case for investments, such as new towns, that would have very long lifetimes and be difficult and expensive to alter later on. A 2 degrees Celsius level of global warming in 2050, or 4 degrees in 2100, may sound small, but it would drastically change the weather extremes right here in the UK. Most people will remember the 2022 July heatwave, which saw temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius for the first time in the UK right across large parts of the country. It is the hottest temperature recorded here to date. The heatwave that summer led to over 3,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. It also caused significant infrastructure and health care disruption with over one in five doctors having to cancel surgeries and appointments. The failure of a data center due to overheating also caused weeks of chaos at two of London's biggest hospitals. By 2050 under 2 degrees Celsius global warming, temperatures this high would be significantly more common. Heatwave temperatures would regularly exceed 40 degrees Celsius in large parts of the UK, and some of the hottest ones could peak at around 43 degrees Celsius, or possibly even higher. This could lead to up to an additional 10,000 heat-related deaths each year without more adaptation. If warming were to reach 4° C by 2100, then the heat waves the UK would see would be far beyond anything we've had experience of in the past with temperatures possibly as high as 48° C. C Rain and flooding are familiar to us here in the UK, but climate change is bringing heavier rainfall and rising sea levels. The early part of this year was exceptionally wet. Northern Ireland recorded its wettest January in 149 years, and across the UK, long and broken spells of rain led to widespread flooding. Flash flooding instances are growing and can cause severe damages. For example, the 2021 London flash floods devastated homes, damaged infrastructure, and disrupted transport, which forced the closure of 30 underground stations. Right now, around 7 million properties in the UK are at risk from flooding, dominated by the risks of flooding from surface water. By 2050 under 2° C global warming, heavy rainfall intensity could rise by between 15 to 60% sea levels by between 20 to 45 cm, and peak river flows could nearly double. Across all sources of flooding, this could put up to 40% more properties at risk than today. If warming were to reach 4° C by 2100, then flash flooding could occur up to four times more often than now. Storm surges that currently occur once every 100 years could occur every single year or even multiple times a year. The damages caused by flooding could be around two and a half times higher than today. Although winters are getting wetter and rainfall heavier throughout the year, climate change means that summers are getting drier on average with less water around in the rivers and lakes. In parts of the UK, the summer 2022 drought was the worst since 1976, triggering hosepipe bans for around 20 million people, cutting crop and milk yields, and dramatically increasing wildfire risk. In 2050, under 2° C global warming, some years could see as little as half the rainfall as in recent average summers. This would mean that the volume of water in the river during dry periods would decrease by around 30% compared to the late 20th century. This would drive significant shortfalls, which could risk both running dry and dangerously low levels left in the rivers to support the environment. If warming reached 4° C by 2100, then the UK's average summer would receive close to half the rainfall of a typical summer today. Drought would be very common, particularly in southern and central England. A summer as dry as 2018, which is one of the driest on record, would be considered normal by 2100 standards. As the country is becoming hotter and drier, conditions conducive to wildfire are an emerging risk, something that we still aren't used to dealing with here in the UK. In July 2022, wildfires helped cause a 500% spike in 999 calls and put fire and rescue services under huge pressures. In the dry summer last year, the UK experienced the largest wildfire in living memory in Scotland, burning over 11,000 hectares of moorland and woodland. In 2050, under 2° C global warming, the number of high fire risk days could double, and the wildfire season would extend into late summer and the early autumn. If warming reached 4° C by 2100, wildfire conditions, like those experienced in central and southern Europe today, would become common in the UK. After four iterations of our advice for the UK's climate change risk assessment, the scientific evidence on what these changes in heat waves, flooding, drought, and wildfire means the UK is now overwhelmingly clear. These climate changes are already threatening health, lives, livelihoods, and our nature today. If left unmanaged, these risks will rise even further in the drastically changed climate we would expect under this 2° C global warming level by 2050. The UK will also not be able to escape the effects of climate change happening elsewhere in the world due to our inherently interconnected economy, food networks, and societies. If global warming were allowed to reach 4° C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, the UK and the world's climate would be unrecognizable potentially catastrophic impacts. These climate change risks are intensifying and they are serious. However, the resulting damages are not inevitable. Adaptation measures are available for immediate deployment to tackle the highest priority risks that this climate change is bringing. I'll now hand over to the Climate Change Committee CEO, Emma Pinchbeck, to talk you through the report's advice on addressing these risks as part of a well-adapted UK. >> Thank you, Richard. We have drawn on evidence from a wide range of projects, scientific literature, and a citizens' panel. Each of our proposed objectives is supported by targets to measure progress across all of the identified risks. Alongside this is a set of actions that can be taken now. We recommend eight key areas of focus for the government. The first is protection from heat. The committee's focus is on safeguarding people, especially vulnerable people, from rising temperatures. Keeping people cool in critical settings, such as hospitals, schools, prisons, and care homes is essential to protect health and in many cases will save lives. Hospitals and care homes provide clear, practical examples of why adaptation matters as they serve people who are especially vulnerable to heat-related risks. To prevent buildings overheating, we must invest in effective cooling measures, including air conditioning, heat pumps, and shade from trees. This can keep indoor temperatures at safe levels and ensure these vital services remain resilient as the climate warms. We also want to see government commit to a national maximum temperature for workplaces to address the increasing risks that high temperatures pose to workers' safety, as well as that productivity, and incentivize the deployment of cooling. The second adaptation priority is managing flood risk. Imagine a town located along a river. When the river bursts its banks, people are forced to evacuate, disrupting lives, damaging property, and the local economy. In a well-adapted alternative, we see long-term investment in measures such as flood defenses and effective emergency response and nature-based solutions like tree planting. These will absorb and slow floodwater, working together to protect homes and businesses. To reduce future risk, development in flood-prone areas should be carefully managed, prioritizing investment in protection and avoiding new construction where risks are not adequately mitigated. The third adaptation measure is avoiding water shortages. When reservoirs run dry or water is lost through leaky pipes, households, farming, and the environment all face a real risk of losing access to water. This risk can be reduced by ensuring water sector regulation maintains a clear focus on drought. We want to see a continuation and scale up of action already underway to build water storage sustainably. At the same time, much faster progress is needed on leakage reduction and cutting demand, which are critical to managing drought risk in the near term. New homes should also be built to be water efficient from the outset. Next, we need to support nature to adapt to a changing climate. During periods of drought, our natural landscapes can become dry and barren. Wildfires are most likely to ignite during these conditions when vegetation is highly flammable. High winds can contribute to rapid fire growth. We can both prepare for and reduce the occurrence and spread of wildfire through practical adaptation measures. To adapt well, habitats need to be healthy, diverse, connected, and well managed. Investing in nature restoration is increasingly important, as is making nature protection regulation forward-looking. It must support ecosystems to survive and thrive under future climate conditions, not those of the past. Adaptation measure number five is to keep farming viable. Farmers are increasingly by extreme weather with poor harvests and low yields driven by heat and drought in one season, followed by heavy rain or flooding in the next. Farmers must be supported through government action that provides access to the right skills, information, and training. This will help them to make confident, climate-resilient decisions tailored to their farms. Key actions include planting hedgerows to protect soils, enhance biodiversity, and provide shelter alongside diversifying crops to be better suited to the changing climate. Storing excess water during wetter periods, for example, through on-farm water storage, can also play a vital role in reducing drought risk and improving resilience. As governments phase out production subsidies in favor of public goods payments, they should ensure remaining support for food production actively incentivizes climate-resilient farming models. From farms to the food on our plates. Understanding the risks to food security and international supply chains is our next recommendation. Rising food prices, driven by climate impacts, risk pushing those on the lowest incomes into food insecurity, making it essential to limit climate-related food price inflation. We recommend urgent improvements in the quality, consistency, and availability of information on climate risks across the food system, so that government understands what could go catastrophically wrong. The government's adaptation reporting power is a vital way it can gather information on climate risks and drive key organizations to plan for climate change. This power should be made mandatory and extended to large food companies, reflecting their critical role in food security and price stability. The seventh area recommended in the report is maintaining access to insurance. Without it, many homes and businesses, particularly those in areas that are prone to flood risk now or in the future, will struggle to recover from climate impacts. For insurance to remain available, the cost of extreme weather events like floods or storms needs to be shared. Reinsurance acts as a safety net for insurers, spreading losses so that one disaster doesn't force prices up or cause cover to disappear. The 2039 end date for the flood reinsurance scheme is already creating uncertainty in the property insurance market. Clarification of the future of such flood reinsurance is urgently needed. And our final area of focus is adapting our infrastructure to avoid cascading disruptions. Key infrastructure systems need to be designed and maintained to work appropriately for the weather conditions expected over their lifetimes. Most of us in the UK will have experienced the effects of infrastructure disruption. This could be through delayed journeys, power outages, or loss of connectivity. What's not always visible is how closely these systems depend on one another. Transport, energy, and telecoms are all interlinked. We call these interdependencies. Government must establish a more structured approach to managing these. For example, keeping trains running in extreme heat isn't just about fixing tracks that have buckled. It also depends on a reliable electricity supply, resilient communication systems, and contingency plans if one part fails. Practical measures, such as ensuring backup power, can help services continue even in the changing climate. I'll now hand back to Baroness Brown, who will talk you through the expected cost of climate adaptation. >> The evidence is clear that effective solutions already exist, and that proven technologies are available to support adaptation today. The committee has assessed the costs of implementing these measures across the UK. Approximately two thirds of the investment that we are currently able to identify falls within three broad categories of action. Cooling. This makes up 35% of the known investment needed, and includes both active measures, things like air conditioning, and passive measures, like shading. Flood protections. That's 21% of known investment, and that's at property level, and also at catchment scale. Water use and storage. We calculate that this will be 11% of known investment. And then there is 33% to be spent on other actions. These include things like climate-proofing rail infrastructure, and the cost of meeting our biodiversity targets. The total cost of our proposals is around 10 billion a year. This investment will require roughly even contributions from the public and the private sector. And although this sounds like a large sum of money, this is very feasible for the UK economy. Total UK investment in 2025 across all categories was 547 billion. More than 50 times as much. Our analysis shows that adapting to climate impacts now is far cheaper than repairing damage later or funding costly retrofits. In the areas that we have modeled, savings increase over time on our pathway from 500 million today to 5 billion in 2030 and 12 billion by 2050. One thing we are really confident about is that these benefits are an underestimate. When you factor in wider impacts, impacts beyond the scope of our report, these figures will be even higher. This should act as an incentive for the four UK governments to take climate adaptation seriously. When they publish their next national adaptation programs, we expect to see clear and measurable targets. But the perfect should not be the enemy of the good. This is about protecting the people and the places we love. Our homes and our communities and the infrastructure we rely on every day. This is the opportunity to show that government can create change for the better. The opportunity to ensure a future to be proud of. The opportunity to make sure the UK can be more resilient in an unstable world. The opportunity for a well-adapted UK. Thank you.