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A $1.5 Trillion Military Is What Countries Build Before Big Wars

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President Trump has proposed a significant increase in federal military spending, calling for a $1.5 trillion budget for fiscal year 2027 to construct what he terms his "dream military" and ensure national safety amidst rising global threats. This request represents a jump of approximately $500 billion over the current approved level for 2026, which stands at roughly $901 billion. Trump justified this substantial hike by citing dangerous international times and linked it to recent geopolitical maneuvers, such as US operations in the Caribbean involving Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. He suggested that these costs could be offset by revenue from tariffs rather than new taxes, although legal challenges regarding tariff constitutionality are pending before the Supreme Court. The proposal has garnered support from key legislative figures, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker and House Chairman Mike Rogers, who issued a joint statement endorsing the figure as necessary to rebuild military capabilities against threats from China, Russia, Iran, and narco-terrorists. They noted that reaching this budget level would push US defense spending to about 5% of GDP, aligning with NATO standards Trump has advocated for. Consequently, major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman saw their stocks surge on the announcement, anticipating increased contracts for ships, planes, and technology. Simultaneously, the White House signed an executive order to reform defense contracting by banning stock buybacks funded with federal dollars, capping executive pay, and prioritizing innovation and production capacity to eliminate wasteful spending. Despite the political momentum and market reaction, experts from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warn of severe economic consequences if this budget is enacted without significant offsets. Their analysis estimates that adding $1.5 trillion annually would increase the national debt by an additional $5.8 trillion over the next decade when interest costs are included, on top of the existing $38 trillion deficit. The summary highlights a deep disagreement regarding how these funds will be financed; while proponents argue for competitiveness and readiness, critics fear that funding such massive expenditures through money printing or debasing currency would drive inflation and negatively impact the vast majority of Americans who may not fully grasp the long-term fiscal implications. Underlying this budgetary push is the concept of Thucydides' trap, a historical phenomenon where an emerging power (China) threatens to displace a ruling one (the US), creating odds estimated at 75% for eventual war unless managed carefully. The speaker argues that Trump's aggressive stance and willingness to use coercion, exemplified by actions in the Caribbean or strikes on Fordow, are responses to a declining empire that can no longer rely solely on seduction but must enforce cooperation through strength. This strategy involves drawing clear lines around the Western Hemisphere and modernizing military assets, including hypothetical "space lasers," to project power globally. The speaker acknowledges the grim reality of these moves as necessary for survival in a hostile environment where allies like Europe may not be reliable partners. Ultimately, the discussion concludes with a stark warning about the political feasibility and economic cost of this agenda. While some view the budget increase as a pragmatic response to inevitable conflict or a tool for negotiation leverage against adversaries who reject peace plans, others see it as the hallmark of a dying empire resorting to coercion rather than diplomacy. The speaker expresses personal distaste for top-down decrees but admits that in populist moments, one must take what is available if it fosters actual competitiveness and prevents US companies from suing their own government over contract disputes. However, there remains significant uncertainty about whether Trump can successfully pass such a massive budget increase through Congress without alienating the public who will ultimately bear the cost of currency debasement or inflation.
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Trump wants to send military spending to the moon, calling for 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027 to build his, and I quote, dream military and keep America safe amid rising global threats, which are happening, some of which because of the way that America is behaving. Now, he posted on Truth Social that the US military budget for fiscal year 2027 should be 1.5 trillion. This is a jump of roughly 500 billion dollars. That's over 50% higher than the current 901 billion that Congress approved for 2026. Trump described the increase as essential for these, quote, very troubled times for, quote, these very troubled and dangerous times. He said it would build the dream military the US has long been entitled to and ensure safety regardless of foe. He tied it to recent events like the US operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on drug charges with US forces still active in the Caribbean as of right now. Trump suggested the hike could be paid for with revenues from tariffs, though the Supreme Court is looking at that right now, so we'll see, without needing to raise taxes. He did not provide specifics on how much tariffs would generate, and like I said, he certainly didn't mention that they could be declared unconstitutional right now, I think as early as next week. But experts note current collections fall short by hundreds of billions. Trump also signed an executive order to reform defense contracting. It bans contractors from using federal funds to stock buybacks or excessive payouts, caps executive pay at current levels, and prioritizes on-time delivery, innovation, and production capacity. The White House fact sheet said this eliminates wasteful spending to focus every dollar on lethality and readiness. Now, I do not love all of this top-down decree stuff, >> [snorts] >> but in a populist moment you will take what you can get. I would much rather I would much rather see him do things that foster actual competitiveness and don't put us in a position where we have to sue the US government for other people to come in to bid on some of these contracts as we have seen in the past, but at least somebody is doing something about it. On January 8th, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker and House Chairman Mike Rogers issued a joint statement backing the 1.5 trillion dollar figure. They called it the kind of investment needed to rebuild the military against threats from China, Russia, and Iran, as well as narco-terrorists. They noted it would push US defense spending to about 5% of GDP, which would set an example for NATO allies, which is something that Trump has been banging the drum about. Defense stocks surged after the announcement. Lockheed Martin rose 4.2%, RTX was up 3.8%, and Northrop Grumman up about 5.1% on January 8th per market data. The sector gained overall amid expectations that there's now going to be more contracts for ships, planes, and tech. The budget impact analysis, though, is horrifying. The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, something we haven't seen in a long time, released a report on January 8th estimating the 1.5 trillion dollar budget would add 5.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, including interest costs. That's on top of the current 38 trillion dollar debt. The CRFB noted this assumes no offsets, even with tariffs, it could still add trillions. So, needless to say, I hate it from the perspective of what it's going to do to inflation and how negatively that's going to impact the vast majority of Americans. I want to be clear, this hasn't passed or anything, but this is what he's pushing for. Um and this was Tucker Tucker Carlson's response to it. The president announced that he is hiking the Pentagon budget from 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion. Just announced that. Why? Well, it's hard to know without asking him. He'll explain, but big picture, obviously, that's the kind of budget that a country that anticipates a global or regional war has for its military. There's no other reason to do that. That's not a peacekeeping >> it. He's right, it's not a peacekeeping thing. I really think, so there are two things at play right now. You are in Thucydides' trap. Everybody needs to just embrace that. So, China's on the rise, we're on the decline, the odds that the odds that we end up at war is 75%. So, looking at just historicals, that's the number. It's not unavoidable, but the odds are not with us. Um but there's another thing at play here, which is Trump dropped some bombs on Fordow, and that [ __ ] worked. He was like, damn, that was cool. I [ __ ] loved the way that made me feel. Then he goes up and he negotiates, negotiates, negotiates with Maduro. Maduro doesn't give him what he wants, and like uh magic drew, you're in a business negotiation, and like you're really trying to be nice, you're trying to like just get it done, and like no, it's good deal for both of us, like we're going to make this work. Uh and then they don't do it, and you're like, all right, [ __ ] them. You kidnap them and you take their [ __ ] So, he's just like, I've got this card in my back pocket >> not admitting that that's where you're at. >> that they know while I'm negotiating, and sometimes I'm going to be like this. Like he just pulls up in his coat, and like the little card is just sticking up just a little bit like like you would show your gun in [laughter] your holster or your belt, and he's just like, oh, I really like this. And if this is what it feels like at 900 billion, what does this feel like at 1.5 trillion? Then I'm like, dude, >> Oh oh, you don't want to give us Greenland. Okay, I'll be right back. Hold on. >> I'm going to roll down the street to Davos in a hovercraft just to be like, I can, [ __ ] I got 1.5 trillion dollars. You guys think you've got like some hard-hitting [ __ ] No, no, no. Like we will roll up on you in the dead of night. We will [ __ ] burrow in here from the [ __ ] core [laughter] of the earth and get you wherever the [ __ ] we want, because that's how the military rolls. You In fact, boys and girls, [ __ ] Jewish space lasers. We [laughter] got American space lasers, [ __ ] Like we're coming in hard. Like >> At 1.5, we better. Dude, that is I guarantee in the dead of night when he is like just slowly fondling his his unit, he's thinking of space lasers and [ __ ] what he can do with that budget, His unit? >> up in the hovercraft. Oh, yeah, 1,000%. Bro, 1,000%. That that is where he goes. He's yeah, like it's [snorts] wild. So, 1.5 trillion is pretty crazy. Quiet as it kept, that's what I was looking for. Can we throw this up? Um Russia rejected the US President Trump 20-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. So, after the peace talk summits happened, Russia kind this kind of has been silent because all the everything else has been going on, but they just requested they just rejected the peace plan. So, that 1.5, maybe some of that money goes to Europe, and maybe that some of that money goes to the front lines of Ukraine-Russia. How Trump is, I don't know which side it will go to, but you know. Ooh, that is way too accurate, bro. Uh he is going to use that wherever he feels he needs to from a negotiating position. Now, listen, all jokes aside, I not all of it is bad in terms of dealing with Thucydides' trap, making sure that you draw lines around the Western Hemisphere, making sure that people understand that you mean business, knowing that Europe may not be the ally that you were hoping it was going to be in the future, knowing that you need to modernize your uh military. All of that stuff, that your sanctions are only going to work as you are as well as you're able to enforce them. Look, they they are the moves of a dying empire that no longer has seduction on its side, that no longer can get um cooperation without coercion, so it's horrible. I really hate to see it, but it's like the only thing worse would be And so, um the the problem is if he does it through money printing, this is horrific. You you just you have to balance the budget. And so, Thucydides' trap or not, you have to balance your budget. And I know that people will uh be confused, and they won't understand that that money's just going to come directly out of everyone's pocket. So, we are all going to pay for this uh because it's going to be done by debasing the currency. And, you know, look, our audience understands that, but unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans don't. So, you're going to get a lot of people um that I I don't even know that he's going to be able to get this passed, to be honest with you. But, uh if he can get people on his side on it, they won't understand what it's going to do to them.