Video summary
The video highlights five specific stocks that the presenter believes are currently oversold and present compelling buying opportunities despite broader market highs across major US indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. The core argument is that while markets generally trend upward, individual companies often experience temporary weakness or corrections due to short-term factors rather than fundamental deterioration. By identifying these dips in established uptrends or after positive earnings reports, investors can enter positions at lower risk levels with significant potential for rebound. The presenter emphasizes the importance of analyzing chart patterns and recent financial data to distinguish between a healthy pullback and a genuine trend reversal, suggesting that buying into this weakness could yield substantial gains as momentum returns.
The first two stocks discussed are Groupon and Dave Inc., both of which recently reported earnings where they missed revenue slightly but beat or significantly exceeded profit expectations per share (EPS). For Groupon, the stock dropped following a minor revenue miss, yet the company affirmed its full-year guidance, creating an entry opportunity in the $18 to $22 range with potential targets near $30. Similarly, Dave Inc., a fintech leader, delivered a strong double beat on EPS and sales while raising future guidance, leading to a post-earnings selloff that the presenter views as a prime dip-buying moment for this previously volatile stock which had run up aggressively before cooling off.
The analysis continues with Oracle, Costco, and Home Depot, each presenting unique technical setups amidst their respective downturns. Oracle is noted for its extreme volatility after hitting an all-time high of $250 before dropping to around $117; however, the stock has recently reclaimed key moving averages and broken out from recent lows, signaling renewed strength with potential targets toward $160 or higher. Costco forms a defensive blue-chip play featuring an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on its four-hour chart, where a breakout above the $975 to $1,000 level could trigger a surge past $1,100, supported by consistent institutional buying whenever the stock retreats 20% from highs. Finally, Home Depot is examined as another beaten-down name that fell nearly 30% earlier in the year but has been bouncing back; with earnings approaching on Tuesday, the presenter suggests waiting for confirmation after results before entering a trade between $340 and $360 to capitalize on potential breakouts from ascending triangle patterns.
In conclusion, the video serves as an educational guide on how to spot undervalued opportunities within strong markets by focusing on specific technical indicators like moving averages, chart formations such as inverse head-and-shoulders and cup-and-handle patterns, and fundamental catalysts like earnings beats and raised guidance. The presenter advises viewers not to rely solely on this content but to conduct their own research while noting that these five companies—Groupon, Dave Inc., Oracle, Costco, and Home Depot—are currently positioned favorably for upward movement once the immediate selling pressure subsides or key resistance levels are breached. Ultimately, the strategy revolves around patience and discipline: waiting for stocks to cool off after rallies or earnings surprises before stepping in allows investors to acquire quality assets at attractive prices with defined risk-reward profiles ahead of anticipated rebounds toward previous highs.
Read the full video transcript
All right, let me uh let me get situated
for this one, guys. Happy Saturday. Hope
you guys are having a great weekend so
far. Hopefully, you're not getting too
comfortable considering we have a big
week coming up in the markets. A lot's
been going on. And in this video, we
have five oversold stocks to cover, all
of which look pretty good on the charts.
And I'm going to break down where I'm
looking to buy, entry, exit points, all
that stuff. And believe it or not, guys,
even though stocks are hitting all-time
highs, three of the four major US
indices here, there are still stocks
that are beating up. So, we're going to
break down a couple today. Hit the like
button. Make sure to subscribe, join my
Patreon for my portfolio updates,
trades, private Discord, all that stuff
is on Patreon link down below, pinned in
the comments, in the bio. You guys know
where to find it. And now, let's dive
into it. So again, we are seeing
all-time highs on the S&P 500. You guys
know that the Dow Jones hit all-time
highs recently, a couple days ago. The
Russell did, I think, literally on
Friday. And the NASDAQ is not there yet,
but the Q's are starting to break out of
this channel, and they're well on their
ways uh to all-time highs, right? I
think we'll hit 745, 750, no problem. I
don't know about this week coming up. Uh
but in the coming weeks, that's where
we're headed based on the charts right
now in my opinion, which that is subject
to change. But as of now, that's what
I'm noticing. And again, even though
we're seeing this, stocks are still
being beaten up. And we're going to
break down a couple here that I think
could have potential um within the
weakness. So, uh so let's start off with
number one, which is Groupon, ticker
Grpn.
Let me pull it up. They just had
earnings a couple days ago. Uh let's see
if I can find them here, guys. They
actually beat revenue or no no they
missed revenue uh slightly, but they did
beat EPS. They lost 4 cents on the
quarter versus the loss of 9 cents
expected on sales of 124.6 million. That
missed the 127 million estimate. And it
looks like guidance uh they affirmed
their full year 26 sales of 513 of $523
million versus $520 million expected.
And it looks like for Q3 it's at 128 to
130 million versus about $132 million
expected. So, a little soft on the Q3
guidance, but everything else seems fine
uh for Groupon earnings-wise,
guidance-wise, yeah, they missed a
little bit on revenue. Uh but the the
guidance for full year, the fact that
they affirm that, that's a pretty good
sign, but the stock didn't like it, you
know, uh likely because of that revenue
miss. And I think that is opening up an
opportunity here in the midst of an
uptrend. I don't think Groupon stock is
necessarily going to break through. um
this channel with this earnings report.
I think a lot of the weakness has been
flushed out and at this point I think
we're already seeing consolidation.
Maybe we get a little more
consolidation. Uh but ultimately I see a
pop here in the low 20s 20 21 22 I think
we could start rebounding uh back
towards the mid 20s maybe high 20s on
Groupon. So, I think anywhere in Look,
there's always risk, but anywhere in the
20 range, that's a lower risk entry. I
mean, if if it starts ripping towards
the mid high 20s, you probably missed
it. Uh, but I'm watching it right here.
And if it slips a little further, okay,
maybe it goes down to 18. Um, and full
disclosure, I have no position in
Groupon right now, but if it does slip
even further, I think 18 19 might be a
decent spot as well. So anywhere let's
say this in the 18 to 22 window on
Groupon I think is a good spot to enter
in the uptrend right after we're seeing
some weakness here after the stock went
up like crazy right it went all the way
from 9 to 29 a share in the span of a
couple months now we're seeing some
relief I think it's an opportunity so I
think Groupon again anywhere 18 to 22 is
a good entry for me and I think we could
be seeing this pop towards
potentially towards 30 bucks again,
maybe even higher. So, GRPM definitely
one worth watching. And Dave, ticker
Davve, which is Dave Inc., you guys
probably know this company, maybe not.
They're in the fintech space. We're not
going to get too much um into them,
right? But the the fundamentals that is,
but they also just reported earnings and
they did, let me see, let me refresh my
memory. This was about 10 days ago. They
reported adjusted EPS. That's right.
They double beat adjusted EPS $412
versus $367
expected. So that beat sales came in at
170.8 million versus 170.73 million. So
that beat as well. Uh very good double
beat out of Dave there. Looks like um
they raised their fullear 26 adjusted
EPS guidance and they raised their 26
sales guidance which is also very good.
Right. Um, so at this point it's selling
off. It it sold off after earnings. Um,
and it was selling off a little bit into
the print. So now we're seeing kind of a
double selloff. It already happened as
now the stock is starting to rebound.
And I'm watching it for that exact
reason. Similar to Groupon, this is a
strong continuation play. We got
overbought. The stock ran like crazy. It
needed a pullback. We got it on good
earnings, good guidance. That's always a
great sign. That should give you
confidence in any stock if you're
looking to buy the dip. You know, if you
see a stock that's down 20 30%. And the
stock was super hot heading into
earnings. The company reported good
earnings, strong guidance. That might be
a sign that it just needed to cool off
and it's actually a good time to buy
because stocks are forward-looking
vehicles and ultimately they follow the
earnings and the revenue, you know, the
the free cash flow of companies and this
company just just gave us a nice um
boost in guidance, right? They strong
guidance topline, bottom line. I see no
reason why Dave shouldn't, you know,
maybe not shoot right up back to 400
plus. Uh, but could it creep there
slowly over the next couple of weeks,
months? Yes, based on the guidance,
based on the charts, I think so. So,
Dave is one I'm watching. D Ave
literally uh like the name Dave. I'm
sure there's somebody watching this
video, maybe multiple people with the
name Dave. I don't know. Dave, if you're
watching, let me know in the comments.
But, uh, that's number two. Oracle is
number three, which, um, it's kind of
run a little bit off the lows. I mean,
more than just a little bit. This thing
hit 117,
um, after hitting 250. I mean, this
stock is so freaking volatile. I got
torched on calls earlier this year. Um,
I'm not touching or at least calls
again. Shares, yeah, I'm looking at
them. But I got burnt on calls. my my
call was actually right, but I was like
two months too early. Uh which is the
crappy thing about options, right? You
have to be right about the direction and
the time, right? So, if you don't get
both right, you're you're you're going
to lose on the trade, right? So, you got
to that's the thing with options. Either
way, I got burnt earlier this year. Now,
it's starting to see a little bit of
momentum. You know, we are up a good
chunk off the lows, but look at how
beaten up we still are. I mean, this
stock, if I clear the drawing set
quickly, let me show you this channel.
We're still well under where we were a
couple weeks ago. And if you guys take a
look at this channel, Oracle usually, I
mean, typically has been trading upwards
of 200, 210 over the last couple of
months. We had that oneoff pop to 250.
This stock still at it's still at 150. I
mean, this thing is still beating up.
And if you're one of those people that
wants to wait for confirmation, uh we
kind of got it, you know, we kind of got
it. The stock hit 117. It was taken out
the lows from the last couple of months
at that point. That was a bit alarming.
Uh but since then, look, we've retaken
that level. We're back over 130. We're
back over these moving averages. We're
back over um you know, the golden
crosses there. So this looks like, you
know, you're kind of buying into the
confirmation, the strength that's
building back up kind of after that LEO
pulled blow up. So that's a good sign.
Um, and I think again there could be
upwards momentum still towards 160,
more towards 200 in due time. Uh, so I'm
keeping my eyes on Oracle here in the in
the mid hundreds. I think yeah, you
know, it might not be uh the best buy.
you know, you could have got it lower
earlier couple weeks ago, but again,
it's confirming the breakout here, which
sometimes with volatile stocks like
this, it's best to wait for that. Um,
and now we're getting that. And, uh,
again, it's it's looking pretty decent
here. We're actually pulling back a bit
off the highs. We hit 160, I think, on
Thursday. Friday, it got down to 150.
So, you're actually getting it. If you
buy it, don't do it based on this video,
though. Make sure you guys do your own
homework. Uh but if you're looking at
it, it actually looks pretty good on
this draw down in the uh on the smaller
time frames. And again, on the larger
time frames, we might be going higher.
Do your own research, though. Costco is
another one. And by the way, guys, make
sure to hit that like button. Make sure
to hit that follow, that subscribe
button. I appreciate you all for tuning
in as always. That helps me out in the
algorithm, right? This, you know, that
gets these videos pushed out even
further. You guys are awesome. So Costco
is one that I'm eyeing up. We have an
inverse head and shoulders here on the
4hour chart. I mean you guys can see it.
The left shoulder, the head got the
right shoulder right here. We're trying
to break out. We actually are uh pushing
over these moving averages. Now I think
the real breakout spot on Costco is
right around 975
to about a,000 bucks. Right? That's kind
of where we were a couple weeks ago, a
couple months ago. we were at uh close
to a thousand. So these these levels
coming up need to break and if that
happens this inverse head and shoulders
it's going to take uh you know full head
steam full head of steam and start going
to 1,100 maybe even higher. So Costco is
more of a defensive name obviously and
it's one of those stocks that it's it's
a true blue chip company, blue chip
stock and whenever it goes down 20% from
highs like clockwork, buyers come in. It
seems like even if the stock's still,
you know, not a cheap value, you know,
it seems like it always trades at a
premium and, you know, once you think
it's going to slip even further, buyers
come in. It's one of those stocks and
we're noticing it. You know, Costco hit
1,100, it went all the way down to 900.
Boom. That's a 20% draw down. 18% draw
down. Now, it seems like we're getting a
bottom in. Um, you know, a couple months
ago, well, more like a year ago at this
point, Costco got all the way to 850,
right? And then it ran all the way
to,00.
So, at this point, man, even if it's
trading expensive, you know, it's
overbought. Some may argue it's one of
those stocks that gets bought up.
Institutions are buying it up, right?
That's just how it goes. And we hit,
look, back in when was this? Uh,
February of 25. We hit about 1,75.
It pulled back, it recovered, it pulled
back, it recovered, and yeah, it's kind
of been flat the last um, you know,
almost two years. Quite frankly,
Costco's been flat, but there's been
many trading opportunities. If you pay
attention to the charts, it seems like
each time it gets down to $800, $850,
900, it's a buy over the last two years
for a for a, you know, simple bounce
back to $1,000, a little higher than
that. So, I think this goes higher here,
guys. Um, and honestly, if it goes lower
either way, it's a win-win for me. I'll
add some for the long-term account at a
at a better valuation. But for now, I'm
just eyeing it up for a trade. Um, you
know, I think we could actually see a
move towards 980 a thousand and that's
the real breakout spot where this really
could take off. Um, so keep your eyes on
Costco or Costco. I say it I don't know
guys, maybe it's the Jersey accent, the
Philly. I'm from South Jersey near
Philly. You know, I went to school in
Philly. I was there for 5 years. I mean,
I don't know what it is. Uh, but I I
know it's not Costco, right? But it is
what it is. Um, Home Depot. Let's talk
about Home Depot. This stock is also
pretty beaten up. Uh this thing is uh
it's down from 400. It went all the way
from 400 all the way to 290 um earlier
this year. That was a 30% draw down.
Since then, it's trying to bounce. It's
been bouncing. Uh you know, we have
earnings coming up, which is why I'm
really watching it on the 18th, which I
think is on Tuesday in the morning. Um
so I'm looking to see if Home Depot can
kind of find its footing here in the
mid300s.
Uh, we were trying to break out of 355.
I made a post on my Patreon about this
um an in-depth deeper post. We were
trying to break out at 355. We didn't.
Uh, the writing was kind of on the wall.
We had the ascending triangle, the cup
and handle, the inverse head and
shoulders, and it didn't play out. It
didn't play out yet. Key word is yet. If
we redraw this, take a look. We're
actually uh still intact right now. The
bulls are still holding higher lows on
this chart. The ascending triangle is
still there on Home Depot. We just need
to see buyers come in right here. And
honestly, if anything, this gave us a
better entry point right now. We can
even pick it up here. Well, I can do
your own research, guys. Uh, but I'm
looking at it here at 340. Look, this
thing might fill the gap to 360 again
before it even actually breaks out. So,
we have a trade right here between 340
and 360. Then 360 breaks. Boom. That's
where the big move could come,
especially on good earnings. So, I'm
kind of thinking maybe I should wait
until earnings. I'm probably going to
wait until earnings. I might miss some
of the move, but it is what it is, guys.
I'm not going to gamble, especially on
Home Depot's earnings uh when I haven't
done 100% too much homework on this uh
on their earnings coming up. So, I much
rather just wait, see the actual
earnings, the call, and so forth, then
make my trade after that. But it looks
decent chart-wise. If the fundamentals
back it up, this could play out. Um, so
what do you guys think? Those are five
stocks. Groupon, Dave, Oracle, Costco,
Costco, [laughter]
Costco, and uh Home Depot, guys. So, let
me know your thoughts in the comments.
Hit the like button. Make sure to
subscribe. Do all that. Join my Patreon
if you want to be a part of the private
Discord community. My portfolio updates,
my trades, all that is on Patreon. Link
down below, pinned in the comments, in
the bio. Go to uh what's it called?
stocksurfest.com/patreon.
You know how to find it, guys. I'll see
you in there. Have a great rest of your