Video summary
Following four years of relative calm under a fragile truce, the civil war in Yemen is rapidly escalating as fighting intensifies between Saudi-backed forces and Iran-backed Houthis. This renewed conflict began after the Houthis launched direct missile and drone attacks on four cities in southern Saudi Arabia, striking oil infrastructure and civilian areas while wounding dozens of people. In response, Saudi Arabia has significantly increased its military offensive, conducting nearly 200 air strikes over the past two days to support Yemeni government forces who are claiming fresh territorial gains near Taiz. While Riyadh has not officially confirmed the number of Houthi attacks, the Yemeni government accuses Saudi Arabia of carrying out more than 30 strikes overnight in areas like Tais, Huda, Aljaf, and Meab, marking a major shift from the previous decade-long period of limited direct confrontation.
The strategic implications of this escalation extend far beyond Yemen's borders, threatening to unravel the frozen conflict and potentially spill into a wider regional crisis. The fighting is concentrated around Yemen's western coast and near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's busiest shipping chokepoints, raising fears that renewed hostilities could disrupt global energy transit and humanitarian aid delivery. Experts suggest that while the Houthis are currently acting primarily to antagonize their Saudi neighbors rather than directly targeting Israel, they may expand their attacks if they perceive Israeli intelligence cooperation with Riyadh. Furthermore, the discovery of Al-Shabaab fighters among Houthi ranks indicates a complex web of alliances in the region, showing that the Houthis are not merely Iranian proxies but maintain independent foreign relations and coordination with groups across the Red Sea.
Despite the intensity of the Saudi offensive, analysts warn that the situation for Yemen's civilians is likely to worsen rather than improve. The humanitarian crisis, already devastating after 12 years of war, faces new dangers as both sides threaten critical infrastructure and shipping routes. While the Saudi-backed government has regained some momentum on the ground, experts caution that a decisive victory is not guaranteed and that the Houthis may retaliate by targeting more important energy assets or expanding their attacks to include Israeli vessels. The current phase represents a moment of reckoning for regional powers who have long sought appeasement, as Saudi Arabia appears to be adopting a harder stance against existential threats along its border to prevent enemies from rebuilding their capabilities and launching further offensives. Ultimately, the stability of the region now depends on whether diplomatic solutions can be found before the conflict fully destabilizes the Red Sea corridor and exacerbates the suffering of millions in Yemen.
Read the full video transcript
While fighting meanwhile has intensified
between Saudibbacked forces and
Iranbacked Houthis in Yemen, the Houthis
launched direct missile and drone
attacks on Saudi Arabia this week as
Iran looks to put pressure on America's
Arab allies. Riyad says the Houthis have
suffered major losses in recent days.
Our Alex Schllo has the latest.
Saudibacked Yemeni forces are
intensifying their offensive against the
Iranbacked Houthis with the Houthis
accusing Saudi Arabia of carrying out
more than 30 strikes across Yemen. The
reported strikes hit areas in Tais Huda,
Aljaf and Meab overnight, marking a
major escalation in Yemen's over decadel
long war. Riad has not confirmed the
strikes, but at the same time, Yemeni
government forces are claiming fresh
gains on the ground, seizing territory
near Taiis and pushing Houthi forces
back along several fronts. The fighting
comes after the Houthis launch missiles
and drones at four cities in southern
Saudi Arabia, hitting oil and civilian
infrastructure and wounding 73 people.
The Yemeni armed forces hold the
criminal Saudi enemy responsible for the
escalation. Every attack against our
country and our people will be met with
a firm response. We will not hesitate to
launch stronger and wider strikes
against the criminal Saudi enemy, God
willing. The latest exchanges are
threatening to unravel the long frozen
conflict. Saudi Arabia has backed
Yemen's internationally recognized
government for more than a decade, but
has largely stepped away from direct
confrontation with the Houthis since the
2022 truce. Now, Riad is warning that
diplomacy has its limits.
>> We are not saying that the path to
diplomacy is closed and the kingdom will
always support peace and diplomatic
solutions. However, it will not hesitate
to defend itself.
>> And the stakes go beyond Yemen and Saudi
Arabia. Fighting is intensifying around
Yemen's western coast and near the Babal
Mandab Strait, one of the world's
busiest shipping choke points, raising
fears that this renewed conflict could
once again spill into a much wider
regional crisis.
>> And the Saudis have carried out dozens
of air strikes across Yemen this
Wednesday. To talk more about that,
we're joined by Elizabeth Dent. She's a
senior fellow at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy. Thank
you very much indeed for being with us,
Elizabeth. So, it seems as though at
this point the Saudis have really taken
the gloves off, as it were. Do you think
we could be nearing the end of the
Houthies and their grip on Yemen?
>> I think it depends. I mean, certainly
the Saudibbacked uh Republic of Yemen
government offensive has taken some
territory back from these. Um, so they
are on a good streak [clears throat] for
right now, but the fact of the matter is
that Saudi Arabia has meticulously
avoided returning to war with the
Houthis over the last four years. Um, so
for them, I think this will have to be a
very harsh blow that they deal uh to the
Houthis. Um, but again, we'll have to
see if there's going to be some sort of
major blowback, whether the Houthis
begin targeting Riad or some of the more
important oil infrastructure, even
though they have already been targeting
the energy infrastructure. Um, so right
now I think we're in a wait and see, but
certainly the decisive response both
with the uh the the new offensive by the
Yemeni government and also the airirst
straits by the Saudi air force um do
seem to indicate that the Saudis are no
longer going to allow the Houthis to
continue to poke the bear.
>> Why do you think the Houthies have held
back from attacking Israel this time
around?
I think right now the Houthies are uh
waiting for some sort of indication that
that is what they need to do. Uh for
example, if there's any indication that
the Saudis are gleaning intelligence
from Israeli uh military officials and
utilizing that to strike the Houthis,
then it would widen the aperture for the
Houthis to want to uh start targeting
Israeli ships as they have done in the
past. um and sort of beyond uh just
Saudi shipping vessels at this moment in
time. But right now uh Yemen has been
quite clear, the Houthis have been quite
clear that their their primary
uh point right now is to antagonize the
Saudis. Uh and so I think that for now
until they see any indication of um
Israeli uh cooperation, they're probably
going to stick to that. uh to what
extent are the Houthies acting on their
own initiative and how much of this is
directed by Thran do you think?
>> I mean certainly there's an aspect of it
um for the Iranians to uh use different
pressure points throughout the region to
ensure that not just the United States
but also its regional partners like
Saudi Arabia are put under pressure and
can then put pressure on the United
States to end the war in Iran. Uh but at
the same time, the Houthis and Saudi
Arabia have, you know, been at this for
almost 12 years. Um you know, they've
been in a very tentative ceasefire for
the last four. Um but it's clear that
tensions were going to start boiling
over. Uh the Houthis have been uh
conducting a number of different
actions, including allowing that Iranian
plane uh to land uh that the Saudis just
cannot accept. And so there's there's
been a red line that's been crossed. Um,
and I I think a large part of this is is
part of uh this sort of internal Yemen
civil war, but it's also an ex
existential threat to the Saudis because
it's right along their border, threatens
their population and of course their
energy infrastructure.
>> Now, the war in Yemen has devastated the
country over the years, hasn't it? And
killed hundreds of thousands of people
and displaced many more. Can we imagine
the situation is about to get a lot
worse for Yemen civilians?
I certainly don't think it's going to
get better. Um it is it is deeply
unfortunate and of course we've seen the
Houthies threaten the choke point of the
Babel Mandev and the Red Sea. I would
expect um that not just energy trying to
uh to transit the Red Sea is going to
have a more difficult time but also
probably um humanitarian assistance that
uh the Yemeni people desperately need
given the fact that their country has
been in a state of civil war for the
last 12 years.
>> Elizabeth Dench, great to talk to you.
Thank you so much.
>> Thank you.
>> The bodies of al-Shabaab fighters have
reportedly been found in Yemen.
Al-Shabaab is an offshoot of al-Qaeda
and is based just across the Babal
Mandev Strait in Somalia. So, what does
this tell us about collaboration between
the two groups? Our senior Middle East
correspondent Arielan is with us in the
studio. So area we are seeing as a
result of the war in Iran lots of
alliances forming across the region and
it seems as though al-Shabaab would like
a piece of that as well.
>> It would indeed seem that way. I mean if
you look geographically and also with
the you know isolation of the Houthis
al-Shabaab are the closest neighbors
that the Houthis have. And so for the
past two years now, the two sides have
been trying to really establish some
sort of cooperation, coordination,
sending arms to each other, various uh
knowhow. And it would appear based on uh
the witness of witness account of Yemeni
government forces that some of the
deceased fighters in the ranks of the
Houthis are do are Somali belonging to
al-Shabaab. And so this would indicate a
very interesting development in this
conflict which would uh perhaps put uh
you know open the the eyes of Saudi
Arabia across the strait and not just
focusing on what happens in its
immediate vicinity. But it would show
that the Houthis are not solely
operating as an Iranian proxy, but they
also have their own foreign relations
and their own, you know, um, spheres of
influence. And this is materializing in
the form of coordination between the
Houthis and Al-Shabaab.
>> And and what's your assessment of what
is happening now inside Yemen with the
the Saudis really going in hard after
those attacks this week? Do you think
the Houthies are in real trouble here?
Well, I think what we're witnessing
right now across the region is a moment
of reckoning of really opening the eyes
of many of these countries who for
decades now have sought appeasement as
their, you know, priority and
maintaining their national security
strategy. And I think this uh these
developments, the Iranian aggression has
really given them a wakeup call. And
just like Israel following October 7th
that it is no longer willing to allow
these enemies to grow to monstrous
levels and for them to attack on their
terms. We're seeing similar to Israel. I
think what we're seeing from Saudi
Arabia is akin to that that they do not
want to see the Houthis rebuild their
capabilities and grow to a level where
they once again cannot defeat them and
go here on the offensive providing
ground forces belonging to the Yemeni
government air support. We're seeing um
over the past 48 hours I think the tally
is close to 200 air strikes. The Yemeni
government does not have an air force.
So these are Saudi air strikes and I
think this indicates that the Saudis
have uh are starting perhaps to wake up
and uh smell the coffee, the Arab coffee
here in the region. The
>> very good coffee from Yemen. Yes,
absolutely. Ariel, thank you very much
indeed. All right, I surrender.