324 | Breaking Analysis | From Tokenmaxxing to Sovereign Alpha: Who Controls Your AI Economics?
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
The AI industry currently pushes enterprises to measure progress using metrics like token consumption and model calls, but these figures primarily reflect vendor revenue rather than actual enterprise value. A stark example of the risks associated with relying on such metrics is Canva's recent decision to cut its 2026 revenue growth forecast significantly after discovering that its reliance on expensive third-party models from vendors like OpenAI and Anthropic was unsustainable. Instead of merely negotiating discounts, Canva rebuilt its entire AI stack in-house using open-source models and task-level routing, reportedly reducing costs by roughly 90%. This shift underscores a critical lesson: enterprises must control their economic terms rather than simply optimizing for the lowest token price, as failing to do so can lead to unexpected margin erosion that threatens long-term viability.
The concept of financial sovereignty emerges as the ability of an organization to control and alter the economic conditions under which AI operates, ensuring it captures the value generated from its own data and workflows. This is distinct from mere self-hosting or data residency; it involves owning the routing logic, governance policies, and cost structures that dictate how AI capabilities are utilized. While vendors provide components like models and compute power, they cannot confer sovereignty upon a customer because the enterprise must architect its own boundaries to avoid becoming dependent on another company's pricing or roadmap. True sovereignty allows a business to decide what to own versus what to rent, preserving the ability to pivot or exit if a vendor's economics begin to compress margins or introduce unacceptable risks.
Achieving this sovereignty requires a hybrid architecture where enterprises maintain control over their baseline infrastructure and sensitive workloads while selectively bursting to frontier models for specialized tasks when justified by capability needs. The key mechanism for maintaining control is an agentic operating system that owns the routing decisions, budget limits, and failover strategies, effectively acting as a financial control plane independent of any single vendor. By implementing caching, context management, and intelligent routing through open-source frameworks with permissive licenses, companies can prevent agents from burning through budgets in loops or hallucinating due to unmanaged context windows. This approach ensures that the enterprise retains its "crown jewels"—the proprietary knowledge, evaluations, and policies—while still leveraging the best available technology without surrendering strategic control.
Ultimately, financial sovereignty is not a binary state of purity but a strategic posture defined by an organization's willingness to accept specific risks and manage dependencies transparently. No company can achieve perfect isolation across all pillars, such as owning semiconductor fabs or controlling power grids, so the focus should be on naming every dependency, defining its boundaries, and establishing clear exit strategies. The failure mode for enterprises is not accepting some level of risk, but rather failing to understand which risks they have accepted and how those exposures compound over time. By prioritizing ownership of their financial alpha and ensuring that critical infrastructure remains under their direct control, organizations can navigate the AI landscape without becoming mere funders of another entity's success.
Read the full video transcript
This is breaking analysis with Dave
Volante.
The AI industry wants enterprises to
measure progress in tokens or things
like model calls and usage, but those
are largely vendor revenue metrics.
They're not enterprise of value metrics.
You know, this month's Canva example
explains why. On August 6th, the
information reported that Canva cut its
2026 revenue growth forecast from 30%
down to 20%. because its AI features
cost more to run than it expected. Let
that sink in for a minute. A company
that was generating almost a billion
dollars in revenue
a quarter and growing 25% had to lower
its outlook because of an input cost.
Canvas said it had relied too heavily on
ex expensive thirdparty frontier models
like OpenAI or Anthropic and the fix was
not a negotiated vendor discount through
its procurement department. It rebuilt
the stack. It had to rebuilt the stack
inhouse with open-source models and its
Leonardo AI acquisition and task level
routing reportedly cutting the cost of
an AI task by roughly 90%.
Its video and image models were
reportedly 17 and 30 times cheaper than
frontier alternatives. Your CFO is not
buying tokens. The enterprise wants
outcomes. So who captures the economic
benefit after the model and the the
cloud vendors after you do all the
integration, after you figure out your
governance, you got to pay the the power
bills. Who captures the economic value
after that? That is what we call
financial sovereignty. It's not just
about governments. It's not just about
data residency or even self-hosting.
It's the ability to control and change,
if necessary, the economic terms under
which AI operates. A sovereign
enterprise controls its data. It
controls its evaluations. It controls
its own policies, its routing, its
costs, the the telemetry of that cost,
and and of course exit strategies if
necessary. It decides what to own, what
to rent, and which frontier model
capabilities create advantage for that
company. Capabilities, they can be
rented, they can be outsourced, but
control has to be architected. Alex
Karp, he attacks what we call tok token
maxing, optimizing the vendor's meter
rather than the value that the
enterprise retains. The alternative is
what we're calling sovereign alpha.
Retaining more of the value created from
your data, your workflows, and your
domain expertise because you control the
cost curve and preserve the ability to
move. No vendor can confer that
sovereignty onto you. Vendors, they get
you components. Only the enterprise can
define and enforce its own sovereignty
boundaries. Welcome to this week's
breaking analysis. We've titled it from
token maxing to sovereign alpha who
controls your AI economics and joining
me is Amit Aal Goffin CEO of agency labs
and a principal analyst for the cube
research emit amit great to see you
thanks so much for coming on amazing
setup this week with your Canva post
thank you for being here
>> thank you for uh having me here and
David I can't wait for this one I'm I'm
chomping at the bits for I bet you are
okay and I are going to examine what
enterprises have to control, what they
can safely outsource, where the real
unit economics are created, and why the
financial sovereignty may determine
whether organizations capture the real
value of AI or simply fund someone
else's alpha. So, let's start with the
evidence that this is not an ideological
debate. So, these companies that we're
showing here are, you know, they're not
rejecting AI, they're leaning in. And in
each case, the capability appears to
have delivered real value. The problem
was control of the economics. You got
the example of Uber reportedly consumed
an entire year's AI budget in one
quarter. And they didn't stop using AI.
They just reset the defaults and and
routed workloads, you know, toward lower
cost models. Microsoft is building more
of its own model capability while openly
say saying it wants to reduce and
ultimately maybe even eliminate the cost
of paying anthropic. Lindy offers the
clearest supplier switch example.
Anthropic had become the largest expense
bigger than its payroll. So, it had to
move traffic to another model provider.
And it says it reduced cost while
improving performance on its core use
cases. You know, this is really, really
important. The product can work great
and still fail your financial
sovereignty test. Nobody is doing this
because of ideology. They're they're
doing it because they got hit with an
expense that they didn't expect. So am I
mean I want you to add some color to
these examples. You've come up with
these and and tell me this. When an
organization doesn't control the model
path or the pricing of of its models or
frankly the ability to switch if it
needs to to exit, what is it giving up?
Please help us understand this.
>> So thank you for providing this valuable
context statement. Uh it cannot be
overstated that financial sovereignty is
not a pass or fail exercise. And and I'm
going to say this a few times throughout
today's conversation. There's a spectrum
of acceptable risk that every
organization must decide where to place
those boundary conditions and what it
can live with. So let's take the
Microsoft example. Now Microsoft has a
platform called Microsoft Foundry. Um
it's AI foundry actually that offers a
broad spectrum of AI solutions including
Microsoft models, Microsoft uh partner
models and also c uh customer control
deployments. Its use of enthropic can be
understood as a developer focused
decision. Simply put, engineers may
prefer clot for certain tasks over open
AI and Microsoft own models, which it
fair, but once you per once that
preference breaches a company's uh pain
tolerance for margin degradation, it
creates a financial trip wire that
imposes controls and routes work
elsewhere uh for lower cost models and
open weight models. Now, you can argue
that this is as much a technology
sovereignty issue as much as anything
else, but the takeaway here is that the
trip was in fact a financial pillar
trigger. Now, let's go over to the Uber
example because unlike Microsoft,
there's an element of coopetition uh
with anthropic and and Microsoft. Here
with Uber, that's not the case at all.
It's viewed as a pure partnership, as a
straightforward one. use
state-of-the-art models for highest and
best use uh for its engineering talent.
Now, that strategy worked well up until
it ran into a brick wall 200 miles or
that. Now, this happened because when
you burn through an entire year's budget
in roughly four a month, there's no way
to confidently budget two, three years
out as a CFO would require, let alone
budgets out here. So of course the CFO
had to pull the plug in this particular
case. Now with Lendy and Canva uh and
much like Uber as well, they discovered
that owning their financial alpha was
more strategic than claiming
state-of-the-art capabilities at the
time of the um I mean really at the end
of the day we're all running a business
here and we we can inside of that. If
your financial livelihood relies on a
vendor whose economics can compress your
margin as as easy as that happened here
with KA that example of losing 10
billion in market cap overnight because
of these UN economics I mean the saying
goes Houston we have a problem that's
truly the case here now with Switzerland
I'll give you a bit of a contra example
but still the same concepts here
Switzerland gave us a more nuance
example because There was a Swiss
national supercomputing center that
developed what it called Aparitus or
Aperitis, a fully open-source training
model that Alps uh that was trained in
the Alps on a supercomputer across a
thousand languages. Now, this is truly
an impressive engineering feat and was
really meant to the sovereign asset that
the Swiss government could tout. But
here's catch.
Um even though owning the model was a
big factor here, the training and
inference and everything else happened
on top of that. the downstream effect
was the deployment sovereignty and what
had happened is the Swiss uh uh
government had organized and uh and kind
of rallied around this and recognized
that operationalizing this and making
this a multicluster multi- deployment
scalable uh across all the different
region it would require to do so was
much more than they could bite off of
and they didn't have confidence that
they could do so in the in the in the
right way. So, so even though the purist
in me said this is in fact the right
approach to take it as a sovereign uh
deployment, they did go ahead and wire
140 million Frank uh check to Microsoft
to take on the ownership of uh both the
operational and the technology stack
that they eventually had to go into
forfeit as a result of a pure financial
consideration. So again, we could argue
whether this was the right approach or
not from a legal pillar standpoint. Uh
they did expose themselves to what is
called the US cloud act that could uh
subpoena them uh for data residency and
go ahead and take that piece of it away.
That is not a perfect uh that is not a
perfect solution. But if we had to go
and put a price tag in sovereignty, uh
the financial pillar is what triggered
and essentially took all of those away.
So no fault of their own. Uh sometimes
it's intentionally done so and
deliberately by virtue of making those
trade-offs and sometimes there are
trade-offs to do. But from our
perspective, the reality is that
financial sovereignty was in fact much
more important to them than giving up
all the other pillars combined.
Hopefully that makes sense.
>> Yeah, thank you Amit. Alex, bring up
that last slide again if you would. I I
just want to comment that these four
examples that Amit to just took us
through and the fifth of course is
Canva. Amit is one of the foremost
experts on this topic and it's a
relatively new topic not in terms of
sovereignty that's always been around
but in terms of how it applies in this
era of AI and he has done deep research
on on each of these and and and has
taken them through the the model the
five pillar model that you saw you know
behind him. Thank you Alex. And so this
information is available. It's publicly
available on the the Cube Research uh
website. And if you need more
information, we're happy to, you know,
get into it with you. Um let's move on.
Alex Karp's argument is that the
enterprise should control their compute,
should control their models, their data
stack, and the alpha. That was his big
point on that CNBC interview. Their
alpha created from their proprietary
knowledge. We have long argued that
Jaime Diamond is Sam Alman's biggest
competitor because he's never gonna not
gonna give up, you know, all of his
alpha, if you will. George Gilbert and I
published that, you know, a couple years
ago. But anyway, Karp attacks this
usagebased frontier pricing as a kind of
a wealth tax on the enterprise. And you
know our sort of short version of that
for that behavior is he's he's simply
crit criticizing the the tok to token
maxing trying to you know optimize the
vendor's media meter versus you know
your own alpha more tokens more calls
more consumption rather than optimizing
the economic value that the enterprise
retains but this slide extends Karp's
argument there are really two forms of
alpha at risk one is the differentiated
capability created from your data and
your knowledge and your workflows and
the other is the financial you know
increment the surplus that you retain
you know or give up frankly depending on
who controls the c cost curve. So I mean
I wonder if you could explain those two
alphas why you see them as sort of
the same you know surrender just in in
in different currencies and and Alex if
you wouldn't mind as as as Amit you know
speaks just bring up the the slide so we
can sort of see some of the key points.
Go ahead.
>> Yeah, absolutely. So the alpha described
by Alex falls under a technology pillar
and it directly relates to intelligence.
His thesis by the way which is mostly
correct is that renting the intelligence
can mean giving up your alpha. The
provider can learn and shape uh the size
of your market, aggregate demand and
your product signals and make eventually
what would be a competitive offering or
adjacent workflows. Just ask companies
such as cursor how they feel about
Frontier providers moving into their
space. His solution is to take
openweight models, host them on Nvidia
and GPUs in a customercont controlled
data center and use this proprietary
operating layer to own everything
outright. Well, right advice, wrong
approach because every effectively what
he just told you is go to the pawn shop
and swap financial capture for
technology capture. If you really wanted
to execute on his advice in a sovereign
way, you would use an inspectable
forkable fully open-source operating
system that allows you to own your crown
jewels. And to be precise about
open-source licensing has a fit uh and
deployment distribution model. So
permissive licenses such as uh Apache 2
and MIT are often simpler for
enterprises. AGPL is a copy left license
um that can also be used but only when
the organization understands and
complies with those obligations which in
my experience is much harder to to do
and to enforce. So take for example the
Chinese auto manufacturer MG who is
currently in the litigation in Germany
courts concerning their alleged failure
to provide notices and source code
requirements by GPL family licenses and
that used in their car chips. So they're
currently facing a potential embargo for
selling in the European markets because
of that license violation. Again,
something to be watchful for, but
there's plenty of open- source options
around Apache to MIT permissive licenses
that are much more easy to work with.
>> Yeah, your point about those licenses is
key. Of course we we we many of us
remember when Facebook or Meta rather
introduced Llama they had these
restrictive uh you know licenses and of
course the newer open source models I
believe are Apache too. Um so that's
really important consideration but the
but the right conclusion basically emit
from what you just said is that is not
that Palanteer delivers sovereignty in a
box. That's not vendors don't it's not a
skew as you've written um the
sovereignty that is it it's that
palunteer can make an organization more
sovereign while leaving important
dependencies intact and that brings us
to sort of the definition of what
exactly is financial sovereignty if it
is not a purity test or simply a synonym
for lower cost. So at this point some
people may be asking whether financial
sovereignty is equal to sort of is it
just like TCO with a whole new label and
we don't think it is. TCO looks at what
a system costs under a given set of
assumptions over a period of time.
Financial sovereignty asks a different
question. It asks who controls those
assumptions and whether the enterprise
can change them without ripping and
replacing the core system. And we should
highlight the you know the the truth
straight away.
The upfront invoice for self-hosting
oftentimes is not cheaper. The objective
is not no external spending. It's to
make the cost curve predictable, keep
dependencies bounded, and preserve a
tested exit. And as you know the line on
this slide says, cheap is a price.
Sovereign is a position. It's a posture.
So am I mean define that distinction for
us? What makes financial sovereignty a
control posture rather than just another
cost calculation? how how should
enterprises think about the sovereign
alpha equation, you know, at at the
bottom of that slide.
>> Thanks, David. That that's actually a
very important distinction that cannot
be overstated as a major enterprise
doing financial modeling three years
out. What is a scarier scenario in your
opinion? Budgeting $500 million towards
reserved infrastructure in a self-hosted
model that gives your organization a
predictable intelligence baseline for
three years. as expensive as they may
sound or signing a three-year 500
million commitment with a Frontier Lab
where you may find yourself burning
through those same $500 million uh
three-year commitment up front in an
18-month period. So, what you're
describing is the same paradox
enterprises actually faced back in the
early of the cloud days. I was early on
in those days as well in the PHOPS
domain and I remember these
conversations circa 2010 to 2015 very
very vividly. Now guess what was the
solution back then and probably still is
today? Keep the data center for steady
state and burst into the cloud or for
the cloud purists out there reserve
capacity and burst into ondemand and spa
instances. What does this history lesson
really teach us? the alpha state with
the companies because it retained the
ability to choose where the workloads
ran. No different from using frontier
models today where many way there are
many ways by the way uh to architect
these systems of intelligence so that
frontier intelligence is used only for
orchestration and smaller models do the
work. uh you could do this with
hyperscalers and to a lesser degree even
with some of these frontier labs
offering multiple different models out
there. All of that is true, but the hard
lesson here is that it's easier to price
a financial sovereignty even when the
baseline is expensive versus to live
with the unknown risk that you can
materially damage your UN economics. So
true sovereignty is not a purity test.
You do not necessarily need to be
sovereign to stay in business. But
financial sovereignty is ultimately a
measure of control and you'll be out of
business very fast if you don't if you
end up losing the ala around that.
Yeah, thank you for that. I mean, so the
basic takeaway there for the audience is
is you know, you don't have to
self-host. You don't have to be the
token generator for every request, but
you do need to own the base
architecture. you want to be able to
burst, you know, purposefully,
deliberately, when it makes sense. And
you you you have to be in control of
that intelligence flow. And so the the
practical answer is not repatriate every
AI workload or run every request, you
know, on on your own on prem
infrastructure. The strategy is hybrid
as we're showing here. uh but but you
persistent sensitive and predictable
workloads put them in a controlled sort
of baseline and then use o openw weight
models that have been vetted and and
serving that infrastructure that you
govern. You want to burst to frontier
models when they're you know frontier
models are amazing. They have better
capabilities in in many cases and
they're certainly justified for the
right workload. that premium is
justified for the for the right right
application. You know, deep reasoning.
Um, if you're doing model evals or, you
know, specialized tasks that you you you
want to get most precise, that makes
sense. And then you got to own the
ability to to control that, the dial, if
you will, the the gateway that that
decides which requests and routes the
the the request to the specific model.
Um, and it goes based on whether it's
quality or cost or your policy or your
your regional jurisdiction, you know,
the the doicile or or maybe it's
availability or the risk profile. You
know, the frontier API is definitely a
useful tool, but don't let it become the
enterprise control plane without
understanding what you're giving up. So
Amit, walk us through these three zones
and explain why owning owning the
routing decision is foundational as it
pertains to financial sovereignty and
double click in the economics if you
would because cloud providers you know
they can spread demand you know with
with with multi-tenency across thousands
you know hundreds of thousands of
customers. Um when does you know owning
a baseline capacity when does the math
actually work? You know what utilization
and steady workloads and operating
burden sort of justify that floor versus
you know renting? You're showing some
things here. We showed some things in
the earlier slide. Um please take it
from there.
>> Thanks Dave. I I'll actually start with
the last question you asked around this.
Uh when does it make sense? So to be
fair, this is very case-pecific
uh question because buy versus build
discussion assumes several factors
including your ability to access GPUs
and compute capacity and in-house
operational knowhow to run multicluster
multi-reion GPU even super node capable
of hosting a large openweight model with
high availability and strong SLAs for a
multinational user base. So depending on
your requirements is truly the the the
answer here because this came uh if if
you were to make such an investment of
what I just described, this could easily
be an investment in hundreds or uh
millions or even billions of dollars
over several years. So it is not trivial
for many companies. Often however just
modeling these things out up front um
and understanding your needs and your
versus the requirements versus what is
practical uh is where these type of
conversations of buy versus build uh die
on the fine. Uh that being said there
are mitigating cost controls as well and
what I call PHOPS practices uh where
really my early days in software began.
um as the industry knows them, uh
there's really uh what what we today
know as LLM gateways, okay? And that's
the most obvious place to start. Uh this
is a reason, by the way, Stripe
announced this week its intent to
acquire Open Rider for reportedly $7
billion figure. The ability to route
intelligence to the best value model for
each task um allows workload
optimization at the edge. And given that
capabilities of smaller models
especially for repeatable work, uh these
are many times lower cost alternatives
to frontier models doing all of the work
al together and having that mixed
strategy, right? Very much similar to
that phob strategy of mixing spot
instances with reserved instances with
on-prem workloads. That's very much the
same kind of concept here.
>> Yeah, that stripe announcement was
really fascinating. they're basically
taking control, you know, of the meter.
Um, so this is, as we said, this is this
is hybrid. It's not, you know, running
from the cloud. It's not putting
everything on prem. The key is
sovereign, you know, decisions uh are
not either or, it's likely both. And
it's deciding which workloads belong on
on prem on the floor that you control
and which capability, you know, makes
more sense to outsource and and rent. So
the gateway controls the routing, but
it's it's it's only one dimension. The
economics are you got to be engineered
across the entire inference stack. And
so that gets us into the sort of makeorb
breakak economics. And most AI
dashboards that we've seen lately, they
they emphasize tokens that are being
consumed and what you're spending on
tokens and how many requests can be
completed. You know, what's the cost per
token? You know, those are inputs. Uh
but they're not outcomes. The enterprise
gets value only after you deal with
security and governance. You got to do
all the integration. The vendors never
tell you about the integration work that
you have to do. That's your problem. You
know the human review, all the rework
and you know your audit edex edicts. So
the KPI at the top of this slide is the
really the one that matters. It's cost
per accepted governed business outcome
not cost per token is you know like say
that's an input. Now, that might mean
less paper cuts, like less support
tickets or or or or
tickets that don't get opened. Maybe it
means an SLA is met at a lower cost. Or
it means, you know, higher acceptance
rates at at first pass, you know, less
work or an audit that takes days instead
of of weeks and lowers your risk
further. You know I mean you have taught
us that tokens and completed workflows
as I said are are vendor input metrics.
It's the vendor out view. The buyer has
to measure what the organization cares
about what they actually uh attain. So
walk us through where that number gets
engineered and rather than you know
covering the six items here on this
slide. You know take it maybe you could
take us deep on two and then give us
quick feedback on on the other. So how
caching and context management eliminate
repeated work and can improve quality.
That seems like a really important one.
and how the LLM gateway turns, you know,
to the Stripe example, turns routing and
budget controls and failover and and and
you know, provider, you know, op
optionality and competition, turns that
into a financial control mechanism, not
just about cutting cost and then give us
the quick read on things like, you know,
queuing and inference run times and and
and energy if you would.
>> And thanks, Dave. This this topic is
near and dear to my heart. I know you
could geek out for hours on this thing.
So I could talk about it for hours, but
let's let's begin with the politics
management as it has a direct
correlation to token consumption because
an agent, if you were to to begin with
this example, will attempt to run
through a brick wall trying to fulfill a
user request until it succeeds or hits a
limit. Now if you send for example um an
agent to scan a repo to run a QA test or
a fix a bug right um but if it does not
if you don't specify which repo uh or
ARM it will um it will um which repo or
skills it will require aring with the
right skills or access for example uh it
will send it into a loop even uh burning
through millions of tokens while
scanning through a codebase and writing
scripts to gain access, giving the
security team many heart attacks along
the way and eventually timing out. Or it
could bloat the model context window,
degradating the relevance and increasing
the risk for errors and hallucinations.
So either way, this or that, you're
still uh operating at a loss. either
you're burning through too much tokens
and degradating the the the overall uh
output or it's going to time out and
you're at a total loss in this case. So
what what if uh I was going to intend
well let me take one one step back let
me oversimplify things just a bit and
offer a solution. So what if we for
example took a knowledge graph and
injected just in time context to that
same agent allowing the agent to
traverse a graph or it at any given
state. Now this would support a more
deterministic and repeatable action
using a fraction of context um and the
tokens not to mention faster SLAs's and
fewer hallucinations.
And now let me go back to that second
example you wanted me to bring in. Maybe
double click. Um bringing back the AI
gateway the routing strategy.
Um there's added benefits beyond just
the cost controls. This is around
governance and and and and security. You
can set daily, weekly or monthly budget
limits uh for workloads. Um and then the
users and teams on a on that level could
also be enforced. So just imagine if a
user were to go into go into a agent
loop back uh a crash crash loop back off
on an agent that burns through tickets
inadvertently or maybe it's a man in the
middle of attack and somebody's using
their identity to go into transfer more
tokens. You could go ahead and have
those same uh uh same type of behaviors
monitored within the AI gateway and then
have that being enforced. So there's a
lot of different uh I'd say use cases
around AI gateway uh especially when you
want to go and route a human in a loop
for those approvals. So I mentioned a
few things we mentioned flagging
security and production uh anomalies. Uh
the API uh the AI gateway acts very much
in similar way that API gateways and
casbies of previous generations did only
with more of a PHOPS twist. So imagine
there's governance, there's security
controls and just as importantly FinOps
uh specific um use cases that you could
go and model all around the AI gateway.
It's no surprise that uh Stripe made
that play obviously with open router but
there's others out there building in
this space and from my perspective
owning this layer is non-compromisable
right it's it's not tied to any
infrastructure it's not tied to any
model um it's not tied to any technology
provider you have to own this in order
to own those crown choice
>> yeah thank you so for the audience the
value is not just the gateway finds you
know less expensive model. It's that the
enterprise owns the policy that decides
which model gets the work under which
budget with what fallback
and the owner can change that decision
without having to rebuild the
application like we saw with Canva. So
those components you know these com
these components come from many many
different vendors but the sovereignty
the the the sovereignty model the
sovereignty architecture the boundaries
cannot belong to any one single vendor
and this is where we apply the same
sovereignty test that you saw behind
Amit's screen behind him we can apply
that test to every vendor it's not just
the frontier labs palanteer They're
they bring orchestration, they've got
ontology, they have governance, and
they've obviously got deployment.
They've been incredibly successful. But
the, you know, the inconvenient truth is
its operating layer is proprietary.
Microsoft and data bricks, they got
cloud, they got data, they got
governance, enterprise integration, you
tremendous, but they introduce platform
and jurisdiction and roadmap
dependencies. Of course, OpenAI and
Enthropic, you're in the news every day.
They provide exceptional frontier model
capabilities. But you know the buyer
inherits inherits that meter. You know
the policy. We saw that again with the
Canva example example, the Uber example.
So many others. They the the buyer
inherits the uh the the risk um and the
provider's depreciation schedule. Then
there's Nvidia of course the the king of
AI. They provide you know clearly the
leading compute platform and the
software ecosystem. And that creates you
know a concentration around silicon and
supply chain and and of course [snorts]
their moat is your moat
except it's your moat in reverse. It's
it's a it's the moat that you can't
cross. So none of those dependencies
automatically make the vendor a bad
choice. We we really want to stress
that. What we're saying is the mistake
that we see companies making is allow
one of their vendors that are selling
components to define their sovereignty
strategy. That's the failure mode. No
vendor can confer sovereignty because
the sovereignty is ultimately determined
by the enterprise and it's it's the risk
that you are taking and it's your
decision. So am a meet what's the
minimum control plane that an enterprise
has to be able to retain so it can use
vendors these vendors and other vendors
without surrendering control of the
entire system. How does that get
architected?
>> So so this builds on my previous
response. Uh we see that an agentic
operating system as a minimal viable
technology stack that moves you toward a
soaring posture. what this consists of
in high level right uh we we don't have
to go into the bits and bites but in
high level this is a self-hosted full
stack agentic system that includes
everything from the context engine to
multi- aent orchestration uh harness
profile skills AI gateway policy and
governance and infrastructure as code so
the full stack ideally all of this
should be an open-source framework that
is fully extensible inspectable and
forkable uh these are all crown jewels
that you must absolutely own or you give
up that alpha. There's no other way
around it. This is the same technology
capture that Alex Karp wanted you to
deposit with him. You're now removing
that away. Okay. So, not coincidentally,
of course, my team at agency labs. We
work very closely every day with
customers in the media and entertainment
space to manufacture and govern it. They
consistently raise this exact concern
and our advice is very consistent. own
your agentic operating system, which is
your alpha outright, then you can rent
around the edges. I'd give the same
advice if you're a startup, a publicly
traded company, or a government looking
to go into this field.
>> Thank you. So, the point is a vendor can
sell you the piece parts that support
your sovereign stack. It can't sell the
enterprise sovereignty as a finished
product. So, you know what? If a company
comes in and says, "Hey, buy our
product. We are sovereign by default."
That's you know the red flag should go
up alarm bells. So that leaves a short
set of questions that that every
architecture and and every vendor should
be able to survive. These are questions
like can you substitute the model
without having to rewrite the
application like Canva had to. Uh if the
if the vendor disappears or refuses
service or gets acquired uh if you get
you know Broadcom VMware can you still
operate at the intended levels? Are your
agent definitions and prompts and evals
and and memory in a format that you own
that you can take and is is it portable
or is it stuck inside of a vendor's
lockbox? So, we've covered a lot of
architecture. Let's turn our thesis and
our premise into something that an
enterprise can can take make it a
actionable take into a a vendor meeting
next week. So, let's let's look at these
six questions. Let's turn them into
three sets, if you will. First, let's
look at the economics. Can we forecast
the cost per accepted governed outcome
over the next 24 or 36 months? And if
the provider doubles its price, what
happens to our margins?
I use the Broadcom VMware example. It
may not matter. It may just be
dimminimous, but it may matter to you
depending on who you are. What would it
actually cost you to switch? Second is
ownership. Who owns the weights? Who
owns the data? Who owns the eval? Who
owns the policies and the routing logic
that make this system so valuable? Do
you own it or do your vendors own it?
And third, what's the exit strategy? Can
the frontier dependency
be metered, substituted, or shut off if
necessary? Is control enforced in the
architecture or is it contractual?
I mean, if you're only doing this
through contracts, you you you could be
a problem. Does my question to you is
does anyone actually clear all five
pillars or is every organization trading
at least one of them away your your
Switzerland example?
It it it's a fair question and the
honest answer to this is that no
organization clears every buyer entirely
let alone all five bars together. The
reason is there's many many dependencies
that go far beyond what any one uh
company or nation or organization can
account for. I'll give you an example.
Uh how many organizations can claim that
they own their own semiconductor fab um
and can replace Nvidia GPUs tomorrow if
they had to or what uh how many could
even say they control their own grid
power grid. So even if you did, do you
own the mines in a refining capacity
needed to remove dependencies on foreign
critical minerals? So let's be honest,
if that's no company or country can
credibly claim perfectly air gap
sovereignty in this respect. Luckily
though, sovereignty is not binary. It's
a scale against which you can measure
yourself, define acceptable risks,
assess uh when you fall outside of those
boundaries. Most importantly, you have
to be aware of the risks and exposures
that you're willing to accept. If you're
a Fortune50 company comfortable with
developing on top of entropic models and
hitching yourself to their price list,
so be it. That's your choice. But make
sure that your critical infrastructure
and vendors do not quietly compound
those same dependencies uh if they're
themselves hitched to those models
because that makes your cost and risk
much harder to predict uh if it's
compounded across your entire vend. Now
I'm also going to use another
illustrative example of how a
procurement department should be think
about these issues. What if you're a
German company um um comfortable with
using AWS for over a Frankfurt region?
Uh by all means, by the way, do so right
there. That may be a perfectly sound
decisions but don't assume that
regionally hosting uh in Frankfurt alone
will eliminate the legal sovereignty
exposure you have because um in this
case AWS is a US company under the US
cloud act can reach uh can reach for
your data within your position and
custody and control because as a US
provider they're obligated to do so of
course subject to any applicable legal
protections and challenges and so forth
But just imagine you could be a German
company hosting in Frankfurt and still
be under US jurisdiction. That's a legal
pillar that you have to be aware of. So
again, procurement department
especially, there's a list of questions
that you could be asking to tremendously
reduce not necessarily the risks, but
knowing what type of risks are
acceptable to you. be aware of them and
more importantly be aware of all the
risks that you're willing to accept so
that there's no surprises along the way.
You know that Frankfurt example is
interesting. So you better be better
understand that risk and make sure that
the data that you're going to put in
that cloud is
of of you're willing to absorb that risk
i.e. it's acceptable. So I think the
practical conclusion here is sovereignty
again as you said it's not binary and
almost no enterprise is going to
maximize every pillar across every
workload nor should they. The more
sensible approach is to sort of name
that dependency make it clear and make
it one of of of three decisions. either
you accept it and you understand it, you
know, deeply or you accept it, but
you've got some kind of compensating
control that if something goes wrong,
you can you can you can you can pivot or
flat out reject it and say no, you know,
you go back to the drawing board. So,
every exposure that you accept should
have a named owner. It should have a
defined set of boundaries. It should
have an expiration date that you review
this stuff in a in a trigger for that
sort of review. The failure mode is not
not it's not accepting the risk. That's
every company has risk. The failure is
not knowing which risks you've you've
accepted and what that exposure is. So
you know where does this leave us? Cheap
that's a price. Sovereign is a posture.
It's a position. It's strategic. A
vendor cannot sell you sovereign
components. It cannot sell you
sovereignty. that control and that alpha
that it protects is yours and it has to
remain yours. Amit Amit, I'll give you
uh the final word. Please bring us home.
Thanks, David. And I truly feel like I
could talk about this all day. We don't
have all day clearly. Uh but there's a
ton of topics that we can double click
on in future episodes. Uh but I'll
repeat my advice. I've said a few times
here. It is perfectly legitimate and
acceptable not to be fully sovereign
across all five pillars. Perfectly okay
in the absence of legal or regulatory
requirements. By the way, a full
sovereignty posture may not even make
sense at all for you as a business.
However, if there is one thing I'd
caution against is you have to be honest
with yourself. Don't sovereign wash your
own actual sovereign posture uh because
that could lead to an unintended
consequences and it can come back to you
in multiple ways. If however uh you want
to be as as tactical as possible, there
is one area that you must exert full
ownership and control over which is your
financial alpha because if you do not
own it, someone else does.
>> Yeah, that is the most important pillar.
Um, Amit, thank you so much guys. Amit
is, you know, our newest analyst. He's
been publishing weekly, sometimes
multiple posts per week on the cuber
research.com. So check that out. If you
want to go deeper, you know how to get
in touch with us. Amit, great having you
on. Fantastic work. Thank you for the
collaboration.
>> Thank you, David.
>> And thank you for watching this breaking
analysis. This is Dave Volante. We'll
see you next time.