30 Days of Magic - Making thousands with options trading using Magic 8-Ball
Watch on YouTubeVideo summary
The video presents a comprehensive review of a 30-day paper trading challenge utilizing "Magic 8-Ball," an advanced prediction engine designed to forecast short-term and end-of-day movements in the S&P 500 using the full options chain. The experiment focused primarily on Zero DTE strategies, including SPX butterflies, iron condors, verticals, and manual Sonar trades, with entries executed via ThinkOrSwim after a morning news check at 10 AM EST to avoid major economic events. Two distinct trading styles were tracked throughout the month: a "Normal Style" that actively managed positions with stop-losses and early profit-taking, typically closing butterfly trades around 50% gain or $300-$400 to prevent catastrophic losses, and an "Expiration Style" where trades were left to run until market close without intervention.
The results highlighted significant differences between these management approaches, particularly for strategies sensitive to volatility. While iron condors served as reliable workhorses with high premiums and low failure rates, butterflies proved risky when allowed to expire, often suffering substantial initial losses before potential recoveries; consequently, the normal style yielded $4,311 compared to $4,634 for the expiration style, illustrating how early exits preserved capital despite lower theoretical maximums. Verticals emerged as the most consistent performers, described as low-risk, high-probability textbook trades that frequently expired in full profit, generating $637 under normal management and $1,216 when left to expire. Sonar trades, which involved manually constructing end-of-day ranges using a custom script around 1 PM EST, showed steady improvement over the month with success rates hovering between 74% and 79%, though they still faced occasional stop-outs due to rapid market moves.
Scaling the position size to five or ten contracts was demonstrated to multiply profits while maintaining the underlying accuracy of the Magic 8-Ball signals, emphasizing that risk management is critical for account safety. The final day of the experiment showcased the inherent trade-offs between strict discipline and letting winners run, as a frustrating butterfly loss followed by a profitable recovery underscored the danger of holding volatile positions too long. Ultimately, the narrator advocates for early profit-taking on strategies like butterflies and iron condors to avoid "death sentences" for bank accounts caused by price swings that trigger stop-losses before snapping back into profitability, while verticals remain a stable core for consistent gains. The video concludes by reinforcing that while the expiration method can capture higher totals from price reversals, the normal style offers superior protection against the deep losses that occasionally occur in zero-day trades.
Read the full video transcript
hey everybody my name is Brian and in
this video we're going to talk about 30
Days of Magic 8 Ball so first off what
is Magic 8 Ball it is an advanced stock
market indicator actually called a stock
market prediction engine that I created
and it uses the full options chain I
have a ton of videos out in my YouTube
channel so definitely go out and check
those out
but in this video we're focused on just
the raw profits that we made taking this
for 30 days
magic 8 ball is currently focused on
zero DTE and it predicts what's called
soon and end of day I mean it's going to
give you what we think is going to
happen within like an hour and what we
think is going to happen at the end of
the day in all of the trades that this
thing kicks out are designed to run to
the end of day
but we're going to trade these a few
different ways and I'll go over the
details
um so it includes example trades it has
a vibrant online community and it has
free and premium servers there are links
down below
okay 30 Days of Magic we have some
ground rules here first we check the
news every single day around 10 AM we
start looking for an entry now when I
say 10 AM that's Eastern Standard Time
all times that we discussed are going to
be Eastern Standard Time
and that time is subjective notice the
first bullet point is check the news so
if there's say a Fed speaker that's
going to you know increase the interest
rates at 10 am we're not trading at 10
am we'll wait till 10 30 or 11. but 10
AM is when we start even considering
looking for an entry
we'll copy and paste those trades
directly out of magic 8 ball into
thinkorswim I mean there's zero brain
power involved it's literally copy and
paste
around 1 pm Eastern Standard time we
look at sonar and sonar I've made a few
videos on it takes a little bit of an
explanation it is a subset of magic 8
ball that tries to really pinpoint that
end of day I will go over that a little
bit in this video but again see my other
videos around 1pm we look at sonar and
we manually create the trade I'm going
to automate that in the future but for
right now it's a manual creation and of
course we do this a couple different
ways in this video we do it but I call
it normal way where we have stop loss
profit collection but then we do the
expiration way meaning we just fire and
forget a trade we throw it out there and
forget about it and at the end of day
see what happened and unfortunately this
is the internet so I have to repeat
myself constantly because I know there's
people that are fast forwarding through
the slide so bear with me if I'm
repetitious
one question I'm often asked is what's
the difference between the free and the
premium Services well the links are down
below so you can check both of them out
the free service is free you don't even
have to feed it a credit card it's just
free it's going to give you a chart
every 30 minutes there's no trades just
charts and it only covers SPX again the
links down below and the premium service
gives you every five minutes a
prediction and that prediction includes
the metrics the charts and the example
trades it covers underlying such as SPX
spy QQQ Apple Tesla and more it's 30
days completely free of charge and then
after that your bill 25 a month again
I'm not trying to get rich selling
subscriptions I'm just trying to pay for
the server infrastructure that runs all
this stuff
some special notes before we really dive
in here we're talking specifically about
SPX for 30 days that's all this is is
SPX for 30 days some of the other
underlyings are way more accurate but
you make less money because it's you
know less money you're throwing into it
these are also paper trays that you're
going to see screenshots of now I want
to preface this with paper trade fills
are absolute garbage and for that very
reason I use the actual number in the
thinkorswim profit analyzer because that
is fairly accurate we're also using just
one contract but they can of course
scale bigger and I'll talk about that
later so when I say you make fifty
dollars a trade
that may seem underwhelming Until you
realize that you can scale that out you
know to 10 contracts or even a 100 or a
thousand contracts it depends on your
bank account size
and of course with stops and profits the
numbers are guides there's really no
hard fast rule watch the market and
trust your instinct again this is not
Financial advice
stop loss is critical when you are
trading with your account I just I
cannot state that enough I don't want
somebody going throwing their life
savings into a butterfly and then losing
everything
remember you are responsible for your
own trades and your own money trust
yourself trust your judgment and use
stop loss
all right the 10 a.m entry time again at
the risk of being repetitious
there's a delay if there's news so this
is 10 a.m Eastern Standard Time and if
there's news like a Fed speaker at 10 AM
or you know University of Michigan or
whatever I will actually delay now where
do I find this news uh multiple sources
like Forex Factory CNN Fox News I mean
Yahoo trading Yahoo finance people will
also post things down below but I
typically use Forex Factory because it
gives me a nice little chart of what's
going on for the day
um and then I'll check the indicators
you know what is the market actually
doing inside of thinkorswim I will check
the charts Inside Magic 8 Ball
and I will wait until I'm comfortable
and I have a good feel for what is going
on in the market
and I will just kind of verify magic
eight ball with other sources like the
charts and the indicators in thinkorswim
just to make sure that everything's
lining up you gotta remember magic eight
ball is still very new and sometimes it
does some weird things once I'm
comfortable I will paste the trades
directly into thinkorswim and I will
watch these trades
let's go ahead and see how this is done
okay let's go ahead and look at how we
would enter the 10 AM trades this is
think or Swim and I am in paper training
or simulated training you see up here in
the upper left that means we're not
playing with real money so if you're
just starting out definitely do paper
trading it will save you a lot of
mistakes and a lot of headaches because
you're playing with basically Monopoly
money that being said there's some
gotchas you got to watch out for
this is the setup that I typically use
and this is kind of emulating what I've
seen Vance Lauren use Vance runs by the
numbers
so what I have here is I have Tac adx or
Tac adx and that's a pretty nice little
indicator kind of shows the relative
strength of where things are going
you can see how it's kind of down and
yet the Market's going up and but the
Market's kind of petering that means the
strength of that movement is really
slowed down but I also use macd and I
love macd because it just tells me the
general flow um it's up you know it's
kind of the same thing as adx where it's
momentum has gone down but it's still in
an upward Trend and you can see with the
price trends now these red and green
bars along with this hot pink bar
that's pivot so let me actually open up
it's sve pivots for the day and it just
gives you the good support resistance
they're not a thousand percent accurate
but you know they're pretty close and
you can see we're really at that
resistance level
um looking to break up into Resistance 2
up here again I am not like a
professional day trader I've learned a
lot of this
um let's go ahead and flip over to our
Discord server
and this is typically what I do is I
will look at the news what is happening
today and there was no major news for
the United States today so I'll
typically go out to Forex Factory and
then I'll just screenshot it and post it
in the group and I'll say you know
what's going on good luck everyone
and what we'll do is we'll scroll down
this is the paid server by the way
we'll scroll down into the predictions
we'll look at SPX and we're going to
hunt for today
jump into the present here
uh it is 142 Eastern Standard time you
see this is what the Market's doing
inside of
our little magic 8 ball and we're going
to scroll up
scroll all the way up
and we're going backwards in time here
I'm just demonstrating what the 10 AM
trades would look like
this is the benefit of doing this after
the fact is you can go backwards in time
bear with me we're at 11 14 11 41.
11 21.
it's probably a faster way I could
probably just search for it or something
like that using like this little handle
right here so we're at 1056 go up up 10
40. this is the only downside to the
predictions being every five minutes is
it does kind of clutter this and you got
to kind of hunt for it 1005 or there's
1005.
there's 10 am so right in this range is
really when I would have started looking
this morning I've already got these up
on the live stream
um in case you're wondering and you're
in the paid server the live stream is
actually right here magic live you can
see there's a bunch of people watching
all right so this is what it would look
like this morning as of 10 05 a.m this
is version 1030. it says SPX current
price of whatever it was is expected to
move up closing near 4469. if we just
kind of jump back to think or Swim here
again
we have the benefit of time you know
we've gone forward in time since that
prediction so surely it's jumped up way
overshot our prediction Mark but you can
see the trend is dying down so I am kind
of expecting this to drop down a little
bit
but this again was at 10 am
and it gives us the qualify metrics I Do
cover all of this in other videos we're
just covering how do we take these
trades so the first thing I would do is
like I would just grab a trade so for
example I'd grab this vertical I'm just
going to right click and copy it it's
literally that simple copy it and then
we will flip over to think or swim
we'll go to our analyzer tab
and then we'll bring this little arrow
down here up we'll get rid of whatever's
in there sometimes it pops back down and
we'll go to this little paste icon right
here and we just paste it in
now you have a couple traces here you
can right click and you can analyze a
trade and this is exactly let me kind of
scale this out a little bit here
this is exactly what the trade would
look like if you jumped in at 10 AM wish
that was an easier way to do this
so pretty much if you got into this
vertical at 10 AM you would actually be
pretty much full profit already but if
you were ready to take the trade
you wouldn't just hit confirm and send
you would make sure that everything
lines up with what you're seeing you
think this is going to continue an
upward Trend so on using indicators and
you don't have to use these indicators
they're just examples
and then to get the real price you would
unclick this little lock now because
this trade was from 10 AM the moment I
unclicked this lock this trade is going
to be worth virtually nothing see now
it's worth five
um not really great so
that is how you would enter the 10 AM
trades let's flip back here and I want a
special note it doesn't have to be 10 am
so for example it is 13 42 I'm going
right to the newest one and we're just
going to grab this vertical here again
you can grab butterflies or iron Condors
but this one is uh about sixty seven
dollars gonna copy that
look back over here go to risk profile
bring this guy up
paste then hit the unlock you notice how
it's jumped up in value so I'm going to
analyze this see what's going on still
pointing up but you see because it's
later in the day we don't have a whole
lot of wiggle room meaning this thing
starts backsliding we're going to lose
money but when you're ready you just hit
confirm and send
and that brings up this little dialogue
make sure you read and understand all of
this because if this was real money you
would now be making a commitment and you
just fire away
and unfortunately these little check
boxes drive me nuts
you can always bring it back up whenever
you want so that's pretty much how you
do it pretty simple
let's look at the rules for trading a
butterfly so butterflies I do not love
they are the lowest probability trade
mathematically but we trade these in
multiple Styles and I'm going to talk
about this with each different type of
strategy but we do a normal and expired
so normal we start looking around 10 a.m
Eastern Standard time we stop it out at
about you know 15 to 20 percent so if
it's just going against us I don't take
that to full expiration and I don't want
to lose too much money however if it's
profitable I'll try to take profit
around 15 to 20 and you'll see as we go
through every day that at the very
beginning my butterfly strategy is
horrible and then towards the end I
really start refining it
which goes to my next bullet point trust
your instinct you know if you're making
money or not it's very clear on the
screen and your gut will tell you if hey
this just doesn't feel right maybe I
should close it out
uh some examples I would have like a
entry of two thousand dollars so I'm
paying two thousand dollars to enter and
I'll stop at negative 300 or click
profit at positive three hundred dollars
the expired style is totally different
this is the way the machine does it zero
motions you take the trade you just walk
away just throw it out there no stop
loss no profit collection you walk away
and at the end of the day you come back
and say did I win or lose so these are
the two metrics we're really going to be
tracking as we go through these numbers
and I'm going to do that for every
single strategy normal style and expired
style as a human being I would encourage
you to use the normal style where you
have profit collection and stop loss but
I also get a lot of questions so I have
the expired style you know the what if
what if I ran this to expiration
speaking of what if this entire video
was generated because of the what if so
everybody kept saying what if you did
this so the 30-day results of SPX
butterflies we had a range we started at
6 21 23 and we ended at 8 3 23. I did
skip a day I just I got lazy I'll admit
it
um and then we had the normal and the
expired style so normal we had nine
stopped out 22 profited for a success
rate of 64 percent
not in love with butterfly success rate
um total profit remember these are one
contract per total profit for the entire
month was four thousand three hundred
eleven dollars uh expiration this is
usually just fire and forget so uh many
more of these lost so we lost 11 of them
but we won 19.
um success rate was only 42 but the
profit was actually higher four thousand
six hundred thirty four you may be
scratching your head going well if you
lost how is that profit higher you have
to remember that let's say the butterfly
is going to stop out when you stop you
are realizing that loss and there are
days where it would stop out but then
the price action would swing right back
into profitability and that's where
expiration made more money because the
price action did move back into the
profit Zone and the computer just simply
doesn't care about taking a loss because
it doesn't have bills to pay
um it's worth noting I'm working on a
new version of the butterfly
because I hate the large entry costs so
the new version has about a 500
anti-cross and has similar success rates
I'm still testing it though
iron Condors all right SPX iron Condors
for 30 days
um I learned these in the ax option
group there's a gentleman out there
named Tom he walked me through this and
this is when I was very new to options
trading and these things are just
amazing these are the Workhorse of the
system I call these My Old Faithful or
my never fails they do actually fail but
it's few and far between as you're going
to see
so normal style I start looking around
10 am again check the news I stop at a
1x or 3x you don't want to take too much
of a loss in a condor
these are huge Condors so the more loss
you take the more it's going to eat into
your profit and speaking of profit we
try to shoot for 100 profits so even in
the normal style I try to run these to
expiration you'll see why the premiums
in these are so low you're talking 40 or
50 dollars per trade to run this all day
long which goes into trusting your
instinct an example would be
you'll enter and collect fifty dollars
premium but you'll stop at a negative
125. again you don't want to stop too
late because one bad exit could ruin
days worth of profit or even a week or a
month's worth of profit you gotta be
kind of careful
the expired style is totally different
take the trade fire forget run to
expiration you take the full loss or
profit
and for these full loss is massive
you're talking about risking like nine
hundred dollars to make 50 bucks it the
risk to reward to these is horrible but
because the Condors are so big they have
the best success rate in the system
the results for 30 days of SPX iron
Condors again we had 30 trades ranging
from 621 to 83 I did skip a day because
I was lazy
um the normal Style
only two of them stopped out and we
profited on 28 of them so it has a
success rate of 93 but the profit is low
look at that 964 dollars for an entire
month
um again you can scale these out with
multiple contracts we'll talk about that
later but just know that these Condors
are huge very low premium very large
risk but as you can see it has a huge
success rate
expiration almost identical we lost to
128 success rate of 93 percent the
difference is the profit look at the
profit between the two the normal style
where we're taking stops and profits
it's at 964 dollars
where the expiration is at 361 because
those two losses on the expiration style
you took a much greater loss and that's
what I mean by losing on a condor can
really dig into your profits uh no stop
losses on these will crush you over time
and you're getting such low premium that
broker fees and taxes on top of the
stops will ultimately Crush you I love
Condors but you need to trade a lot of
them and you need to be very good at
them to really start seeing profit
all right verticals SPX
um normal style we start looking around
10 am again check the news uh very
similar to Condor I don't like taking a
huge loss on these so I'll stop these
out at 1X or 3x and I do shoot for about
100 profit meaning let your runners run
if the Market's going in your favor just
let it go watch it don't walk away and
respect your stops but if you're gonna
win go for the win trust your instinct
an example this would be you get an
entry premium of 100 and you stop out at
negative 200. so if you lose it's not a
huge loss you're just losing you know
like two days worth of trading
uh the expired Style again this is how
the computer would do it take the trade
walk away
run at the full expiration which means
you're gonna take a full loss or profit
um a full loss on these is not great but
it's also not near as bad as a condor
you're talking about maybe like a
negative 300 400 loss but still you
don't want to do that if you want to
make money
the results for verticals SPX 30 days
range between 621 and 8 3 30 trades
again I took a day off just because I
wanted to screw around uh normal four of
them stopped 26 profited for a success
rate of 85 percent that's what I'm
talking about uh profit of 637 dollars
um expiration takes a little bit of
explanation here so
again huge shout out to the ax option
group love you guys
um the code in the system mimics how the
professional Traders do it and I
consider people in Acts to be
professional Traders I'm just an idiot
on a keyboard making software
but for the expiration we had five lost
25 won now remember these things are
going to go to full profit or full
expiration that full profit is where you
see that huge difference the normal
style I did do some profit collection
around 50 because the market got weird
and I didn't want to take a stop loss
where
expiration just said you know what you
only live once let's just do it success
rate was lower at 80 percent but due to
the number of Trades that would have
stopped and then jumped back into
profitability the profit margin is
almost double I mean look at that 1216
dollars
um stop loss is really key these could
have easily gone against me and I could
have taken a big loss uh I don't like
running things to expiration like that I
tend to personally trade like a blended
approach where I'll have my stops and my
profit in there but if it's obvious the
Market's just going to go in my favor I
just let it run and take the full profit
1pm sonar trades uh again we'll delay if
there's news we look at sonar which is a
subset of magic eight ball it's a very
special chart and I actually wrote code
so it can live inside of thinkorswim but
it's problematic which is why I wrote
the chart because it's way easier just
to look at a chart and then I would
manually construct the trade
and I'll walk you through how I do that
I do want to automate this part in the
future I'm just not there yet I've been
super busy with life
um part of it is I would find the range
and it's on the chart it's dead simple
but I'll take that range and I'll add
and minus 10 points to that range or ten
dollars to that range and I'll account
for directions so if the Market's just
ripping up I'll do my range but then
I'll move it up just a little bit
because I know that Market's moving in
an uptrend and reverse for a downtrend
obviously and then I'd watch the trade
and uh honestly sonar was a little
problematic when I started it but you'll
see as we go through the days that it
actually just really started kicking
butt let's go ahead and see how I
construct these trades
the sonar trade is a little bit
different
um so we've got all of the charts and
indicators and everything
um towards the end of the day they're
not really super helpful I'm just gonna
level with you here
so what I'll go is I'll go into ad
simulated trades expand this out you see
these bright green boxes that's called
sonar it's actually a script I wrote and
before you get super excited no it does
not auto update and it's got a whole
host of other problems but it can live
directly inside of thinkorswim so like I
can just change the metric here if
you're furiously screenshotting don't
worry I can actually tell you how to get
the full code but you know you have to
manually update it but it can tell you
exactly where that Market's going so
we're really looking for an end of day
right around 4490 but we have all this
draw down here and this is where you
gotta kind of play around with it a
little bit gets a little cumbersome here
I know you're saying well you said it
doesn't auto update and I just saw that
green box pop up I'll explain that in a
second so we're going to set the
threshold for 45
000. I'm going to hit OK
and what it's going to do is it flips to
not a number and then it recalculates
and everything above 45 000 now gets
highlighted and if you watch you'll see
these numbers change and grow and shrink
and that's how we're really highlighting
these cells really sonar if we look at
it is a modified version of gamma
exposure it's very very simple the
problem is displaying it inside of
thinkorswim is not simple and I know I'm
going to get a million comments of why
don't you make an indicator
think script is horrible it is
absolutely horrible and then I'll get a
million comments of why don't you go to
a ninjatrader or go to tradingview or go
to X or go to y or go to Z the problem
is what sonar does is it reads the
entire options chain and in this case it
reads the individual cells
and you can't do that with most places
like trading view won't let you do it
thinks script won't let you do it I mean
I could go on and on even yes
interactive brokers somebody's going to
mention that won't let you do it so this
is about the best I could come up with
unfortunately this is horrible to work
with I mean how do you really tell in
this block of green stuff where it's
going to go for that very reason
I actually added it directly into the
prediction models so if we just scroll
down I'm going to jump to present here
you'll see and this is the paid server
of course we have our prediction with
our text wall
and we have the example trades and you
notice that sonar is not in the example
trades we have butterfly iron Condor
vertical so sonar trades I'm building by
hand and I'll use the actual charts so
I'll look at this chart and say Yep this
bright green line is the soon prediction
meaning we think it's going to go up
there soon the dark green line is the
end of day prediction so we're actually
below both of these so I'm expecting the
price this pink line to pull up probably
about the middle of those two
and then we have the individual metrics
here so we have volume interest Gamma
Delta there are many many more there's
like I've identified 16 within the
market but these are the four major ones
that I really watch
um they all kind of tug and pull at the
price action
um and then here's the sonar chart that
takes that green mess that was in think
or Swim and puts it into a very simple
easy to understand chart so what I'll do
is around one o'clock of course I'll
check the news I'll come into this chart
and it's very simple I look for this
magenta line that's where we think or
sonar thinks that the price action is
going to land around 4487 and these
yellow lines you see we've got a high
and a low at 4 500 and 4475
those are the ranges so what I'll do is
I'll add ten dollars and minus ten
dollars and I'll make a little range and
then I'll make a condor around that
special note you'll notice the high is
four four seven five and the low is
4500.
it's kind of like breaks your brain
because you're like no wait a minute
4500 is higher no what it's saying is
four four seven five this Spike down
here has more metrics behind it has more
pool and that's where we get this
direction it's going to pull down so
even though the Market's been up
trending we are anticipating a slight
pull down to four four eight seven
um now let's go into thinkorswim and
where are we at so 4487 would be about
right here so you can see that's how it
gets a little bit confusing so we have
this giant number 54 000 but it's going
to pull down a little bit because these
two numbers forty nine thousand forty
seven num 47 000 are slightly different
than these numbers and you have all
these metrics pulling and tugging at the
price so it takes into account all those
things
I'm babbling but it does all the math
for you so you don't have to do it uh
because I absolutely not a friend of
math all right let's flip back here
so looking at the chart we got forty
five hundred and four four uh seven five
and what I'll do is I'll just generate
that manually but I also I want to put
it in here I put it in option fills
uh I do both so at the 10 a.m you see 10
a.m right there I said these are the
trades I'm gonna test or jump into some
of those I actually to put real money in
and then around one o'clock
[Music]
end of day sonar and then we did this
trade right here so I'm just going to
copy this
now I don't always do that like if I'm
busy in a meeting or something I don't
do it I let you figure it out but let's
go into the risk profile
opt us in
oh order no order in the clipboard let's
see what I screwed up this is the thing
I hate about thinkorswim is it's very
very finicky if you don't get all of it
it will say it's not well defined or no
order entry so start with cell and go
all the way to the end the LMT
there we go
and I'm going to analyze this and this
is real time this is what this looks
like right now
so what I've done is when I constructed
this thing
53 minutes ago I expected the market was
going to pull up a bit
so
here if you see this little red line
right there is where the price action
actually is I'm expecting it to pull up
a little bit more but it gives us so
much room
and so we would be getting 90 credits to
enter this but we are risking and I'm
looking at this little box down here
where it says negative 410 we're risking
410 dollars to make
about 50 bucks according to that
which I question that because the actual
trade was around 90 when I enter it so
sometimes the analyzer betrays us again
that's the time difference of 53 minutes
if I unlock this let's see where it's
worth no it's actually right around 90.
kind of curious why it's saying that
though
oh that's why let's unlock that nope
that's 92. again it's not an exact
science and sometimes you gotta mess
with it here
so I'm going to delete that I'm going to
delete that I'm going to show you how I
would actually construct it so again I
go in here
and we're just going to do this in real
time I'm gonna grab this chart so we've
got 4475 and 4500 I'm gonna go into
thinkorswim
add similar trades if you have the sonar
script that is a huge help because you
can highlight where you need to go so we
said four four seven five to forty five
hundred right here so we got kind of a
tight range so I'll add minus 10 so I'll
go to 4 4 60.
actually four six five right click
analyze sell trade and I'm going to go
to iron condor
and it makes this little guy here
now if you look at this it's way too
small what did we say 4500 so now we
have to kind of bump up these numbers a
little bit so I'm going to go up to 45
10.
and this is where it gets kind of
bothers me I get these screwed around
all the time
there we go we basically construct a
condor
so if I were to enter this right now
I've got that you know let me pull up
some Splitters here or I'm sorry slices
break even
so these are the little guides helpful
so we said it was between four four
seven five so about here
and 4 500 here
so this these two dotted lines represent
the range of sonar that we think this is
going to land in but you can see I added
a little extra padding off to the side
here on each side that way if I'm wrong
because I'm only human and it starts
sliding it gives me time to either eject
out of the trade or I can just hold my
breath and see if it would be successful
but that's how you would construct a
sonar trade
the rules for sonar get a little murky
I'm trying really hard to make it super
simple because a lot of this is very
subjective uh to me sonar is just as
much science as it is Art the normal
style I'll start looking around 1pm in
the afternoon sometimes it's earlier
sometimes it's later depends on my
schedule depends on the news
and I try to stop these out at 1X
meaning because it's so late in the day
I really don't trust the market
and I just want to stop these out if
it's not going in my favor but these are
you know I want to hit that 100 profit
margin so if it's going in my favor I
just let it go trust your instinct an
example of this would be entering
collecting 100 premium stopping out at
negative 100 so really you don't want to
lose too much money in these
the expired style of course is just fire
and forget take the trade run at the
expiration come back and see what
happened foot loss on these is not great
but it's not horrible because I try to
do a three per three to one wrist reward
so I'm risking say 300 to make a hundred
dollars so as long as the system is
accurate
you know to a certain degree these are
going to continually win and win and win
and then we will account for losing
money
just because the accuracy in the system
gets better and better
the results for sonar now the range is
622 to 8 3 notice I'm only got 29 trades
I did skip a day
um the reason why there's only 29 days
instead of 30 is because
I started doing this video started 30
Days of Magic
and someone in my group said why don't
you include sonar as well and I said
it's still pretty experimental but they
convinced me so here it is only 29 days
but here are the results uh the normal
style I stopped out five times profited
24 times for a success rate of 79 profit
of about 1283 dollars again these are
one contract per trade for 29 days
uh expiration style lost six of these
123 for a success rate of 74 percent
profit 990 you notice there's less
profit because you got that three to one
risk to reward ratio so when these lose
they tend to lose very rapidly
um
again I I kind of follow a blended
approach where I will do the normal
style of trading but if it looks like
the Market's going to work for me I just
try to run it to 100 percent
and as we go through all the trades
you'll see at the very beginning I'm
kind of like haphazardly doing these and
then I get better and better and better
with experience
okay all results I wanted to put this
into one nice sheet just to make it very
clear what we're talking about here and
if I messed up any of the numbers
apologies I'm not trying to mislead
anybody this is just a lot of video
editing for me
um so one contract per trade for 30 days
and then I've got you know each Style on
the left under the trade column and then
I have the type whether it was normal or
the expiration style under the profit
and accuracies for each one
butterflies I have a love-hate
relationship with butterflies
um the normal style profited 4311 for an
accuracy of 64 percent the expired style
was slightly more money at 4634 at 42
percent
iron Condors are Workhorse of the system
shout out to ax options uh normal style
964.93 accuracy that's amazing accuracy
um Iron Condor exploration style 361
dollars with 93 accuracy that's just
throwing these massive Condors out there
and forgetting about it that's still
profit
vertical normals
again these verticals kind of emulate a
lot of the folks that are in ax options
vertical normals 637 for 85 accuracy
um and vertical expiration less accurate
at 80 but almost double the money uh
twelve hundred dollars
1216 dollars sonar this is still fairly
experimental and this is me manually
creating them I consider this both you
know an art and a science and admittedly
there's some days where I completely
screw it up and there's some days where
I'm like holy crap I did that so sonar
normal
1283 dollars for an accuracy rate of 79
percent
uh sonar expiration 990 dollars with an
accuracy of 74 percent
so I'm fairly happy with those numbers
now remember this is just one contract
this is going the lowest dollar amount
you can get this is the low end of the
spectrum that we're talking about
I always get asked the what if style
questions what if you did this what if
you did that I know one of the questions
is going to be how does this scale what
if you did five contracts so that's what
the next two slides are this slide is
five contracts the next slide is if you
did 10 contracts exact same accuracy at
least it should be unless I screwed up
and the numbers are just multiplied
times five because they're five
contracts so butterflies normal would be
twenty one thousand dollars expired
style would be twenty three thousand
dollars
and the uh iron Condor normal four
thousand eight hundred dollars iron
Condor exploration 1800 vertical normal
three thousand ish vertical expired six
thousand
sonar uh normal
6400 and sonar expiration 4950.
um so those you can see just by
increasing the contract size with that
accuracy staying the same you greatly
start increasing your profits but at the
same time you are of course putting more
money on the table to make those trades
so do trade responsibly I know these
numbers are going to get some people
excited and some people are going to say
well I call complete BS on this okay I
encourage you to go into the free server
or even take the 30-day trial and
show me what I'm doing wrong
um I have a very open mind and I'll
admit that I'm human and maybe I'm not
making as much profit out of these as I
could
okay all results 10 contracts this is
the last slide I'm going to do on the
number of contracts you could take this
out indefinitely to like you know 100
contracts or a thousand contracts
whatever your bank account could handle
um this is what I call the edge of
sanity this is my small account could
probably not even handle this
um all results for 10 contracts
butterfly normals forty three thousand
dollars butterfly expirations forty six
thousand dollars iron Condor normals
nine thousand dollars uh iron Condor
expiration three thousand six hundred
vertical normal 6000 vertical expiration
12 Grand sonar normal uh twelve thousand
dollars and sonar expiration nine grand
it's worth noting in this as you look at
the numbers the accuracy stays the same
of course unless I screwed something up
but look at the profitability between
the verticals and the sonars and you see
that the sonar normal playing it safe is
making just as much money as the
vertical is just throwing your money
into the market and praying so sonar I'm
I'm not sure what it is about the trade
itself
that is making that kind of money other
than
I think you're getting more premium uh
because you know a sonar isn't a sonar
trade is an iron Condor but it's a much
smaller much tighter iron Condor so you
take two verticals of slap them together
and you're getting more premium I think
that's part of it right there I
definitely welcome your comments down
below and I hope you do join at least
one of the servers and review it and let
me know
okay let's go ahead and review every
single day yes that's right I took
screenshots of every single trade for
every single day for 30 days this is
going to be a lot of video editing bear
with me if there's any mistakes
all right before we dive into the
individual days I wanted to cover my
methodology so you don't ask a bunch of
questions because we're going to go
through each day very very rapidly I've
got a lot of Trades to cover so over
here on the left I have the day the
trade type
the normal profit the expired profit
whether it's stopped out and whether it
expired in profit so what this means is
on day one this is a butterfly and you
can see the actual trade here
and you can see the trade down here
highlighted with a little check box next
to it that's the actual trade
normal profit is if I traded it like a
normal human being meaning I took profit
and I had a stop loss expired as if I
just ran it to expiration and then of
course whether it stopped out whether it
expired now if you've never seen the
analyzer tab in thinkorswim this is what
it is it's right here you click analyze
and then you go to risk profile and you
make sure the check box is checked for
whatever trade you want to analyze
this blue or teal line represents end of
day and where this pink line you can
barely see it because it's right on top
of it represents I think it's the profit
curve or the time and trade I can never
remember basically that means if you
were to close the trade right now at
that moment in time that's what it would
look like versus the blue line which is
end of day these screenshots are as you
can see up here in the corner taken at
end of day
the good thing about these is I can zoom
in I can zoom out these are just
screenshots at the end of the day this
was taken at
1604.55 on June 21st but it gives you a
good idea of what we're working with
here I simply at the end of the day took
a screenshot and then recorded the
results
now the green line represents the price
at the end of the day I actually drew
that line for every one of these slides
so you don't have to ask well where did
it actually end up you can actually see
I think this green line right here so on
day one this butterfly pretty much
pinned and we call it a pin when it's
right here in dead center so it expired
for full profit of fourteen hundred
dollars now because I don't like to play
chicken with my bank account even when
I'm doing paper trades I did exit the
trade for profit earlier on so it only
made 929 dollars
pretty simple so what we're going to do
is we go through these slides we'll look
at the day the trade type the profit for
each style and look at the actual
analyzer tab
A1 butterfly okay this was almost a
perfect pin for the first day I was
pretty exhilarated uh buyer beware I am
not good at butterflies and the code in
the system reflects my not goodness my
inability to just make a butterfly work
so you'll see that the normal trades are
kind of haphazard for butterflies in the
beginning and then as time goes on I get
better and better at them this was just
a lucky day for me to be brutally honest
but normal profit was 929 dollars it
expired for fourteen hundred dollars it
did not stop out and it did expire in
full profit as you can see
the iron Condor for the day was a normal
profit of 30 meaning I took profit at 50
percent
uh I don't like doing that in Iron
Condors because between broker fees and
taxes it's going to eat your profits up
um it expired full profit this is pretty
common for iron Condor so you see that
green line is dead center I mean look at
this dead center of the iron Condor I
mean it's right there
um so that Condor was never challenged
uh did not stop out and did expire full
profit
vertical
um this one this takes a little bit of
explaining you see where it says normal
over here negative 150. what that means
is this green bar the price went over
against our vertical and went into what
I call the bad Zone which is you see
this drop off here this right here is
the zero Line This goes across screen
anything above that zero line this blue
bar is profit anything below it is not
profit you can see the negatives right
here negative one negative 200 negative
300 negative 400. so at some point the
price action dipped down and this is
where that profit curve that magenta
line comes into play because you can
still be within the boundaries or the
safe zone or the break even of the trade
but you could actually lose money so
what happened is this green bar starts
swinging this way very very quickly and
I said I'm not liking that it hit my
stop loss and I took the stop of
negative 150 but then over the course of
the day this is pretty common it swung
back and the trade would have been full
profit of sixty dollars
this is you know kind of the risk
trade-off uh and I mean those of you
that are skilled at trading probably
know a better way leave your comments
below but this is you know one of the
risks is that you could actually stop
out on a trade that would have made
money
all right day two butterfly here
um you can see how it's negative 615
remember this is zero right here that's
our zero line these little red bars are
our break even anything above is profit
anything below is not profit the green
line is the price action so we're down
in the negative territory at negative
615 dollars
it's negative 615 for normal and expired
because I never stopped the trade out it
was actually over here and then towards
the end of the day I just went oop adios
goodbye and lost the money again I get
better and better at butterflies as this
goes on but this was an example of just
my stupidity uh it did stop out did not
expire
on day two iron Condor normal and
expired full profit 55 bucks did not
stop out did expire but you can see this
green line
it was here and it just rapidly started
moving against us it started
see this magenta line here let me zoom
in
this magenta line is our profit curve
once it hits that it's really going to
start challenging this Condor and you'll
start losing money very rapidly you want
to make sure that you don't go past that
bar because that's your break even
ignore this orange dotted line that's
just a slice inside of the analyzer that
you can move around
um it just so you can help see where
things are
I just simply forgot to remove it for
the image
sonar it says day two sonar this is a
little misleading because it's the first
day I did a sonar remember on the second
day people were begging me to do these
it was a swing and a miss negative 46
dollars and when I say Miss I mean look
barely missed it's right there I mean we
are like not even 50 bucks off
kind of depressing that it happened on
the first day but it is what it is
end of days are always risky so we have
negative 46 for normal and expired
meaning it moves so fast I couldn't stop
it out
in our vertical of course these are our
Workhorse of the system this thing just
worked
um
we normal 70 and expired 70 meaning the
price went this way and around 50 I said
you know it looks like it's going to
keep going so I just let it go and we
got full profit out of that absolutely
love it textbook vertical
day three butterfly
um normal profit of 525 dollars and
expired for 690. what that means is you
see this green line it was going into
the center here and then started moving
backwards so I grabbed the profit and
then it kind of moved back again and I
got it for the 690 expired but it did
not stop out it did expire in profit
butterflies are challenging and you can
see once it hits this break even line it
gets very scary very fast those numbers
go into the negatives very quickly
iron Condor was never challenged look at
it just dead center normal profit 40. I
took the profit when I saw the price
kind of move but it snapped back dead
center
this is what I love to see for iron
Condors
um again if you just want very low risk
trades I'd go with the Condors
I have to back up when I say low risk I
mean
higher percentage chance of expiring the
money you're actually risking a lot of
money to make low profit
all right
sonar for day three again a swing and a
miss
um
maybe I hit stage fright when I do these
trades I do them in front of a live
audience so there's like 200 people
watching me do these things and it gets
a little nerve-wracking at times normal
profit was negative 170 meaning this
thing's shot out down here and I was
like oh no so I took the stop but it did
snap back and expired for negative 20
dollars
in our vertical another textbook
vertical I mean it just went in the
direction we wanted to go even though it
started slamming back against us I mean
let me zoom in here it never really even
challenged it it just stayed right above
that profit curve there so I was pretty
happy with that
all right day four butterfly the market
went down and just laughed and laughed
and laughed and all we could do is write
it down
negative 600 normal negative 600 expired
again the market just shot against me
and I wasn't able to stop it out
um I I have a love hate with butterflies
because they can be amazing when they
pin but they can be horrifying when they
go against you
um it's worth noting I'm working on new
butterfly codes so you don't have this
huge risk but the new code has the same
wrist or reward profile
all right iron Condor you can see the
iron Condor was starting to get to the
point it was going to be challenged I
did take a profit for 25 bucks so it was
50 profit but it did expire at 48
dollars
sonar was a win everybody was like Yay
so sonar at 115 bucks it expired for
150. what that means is I took that
profit because I saw that needle moving
against me very rapidly and I wanted
sonar to be a win
expired for 150 always a good thing
in our vertical this was not a good day
for the vertical
I put the trade in and immediately the
market went against us we took a stop of
negative 160 meaning it was over here
actually it was like down in here
somewhere and then it just kept going
against us for a negative 422 dollars
now when you see these numbers bear in
mind that if you're a normal Trader
you're looking at this normal number not
this horrifying expired number down here
all right day five butterfly again not a
good day for a butterfly uh normal and
expired both negative 900
um this is just my inexperience with
butterflies and trying to stop them out
and the market just said goodbye adios
so my 401k loved it because all the
numbers in the stock market moved up but
this butterfly just got left behind so
it did stop out did not expire
iron Condor got challenged this is one
of the few iron Condors that actually
stopped out so it has a negative 120.
this is what I mean by stop loss for an
iron Condor is critical because one loss
on an iron Condor can wipe out two or
three days of profit you gotta be very
careful with these and never never take
an iron Condor to Max loss
um and it expired at forty two dollars
meaning you see how this magenta line is
here curved it means the price was down
in the negative even though we're in the
trade and then I stopped it out but
during the course of the day it stayed
within our profit 10 here not super
happy with it but that's the nature of
trading
sonar however was dead center this is
where I start really getting a feel for
the sonar trades uh I did take my profit
collection at 75 bucks and it expired at
100 bucks I mean look at that just
dead center
absolutely love it when it does that
vertical another textbook vertical day I
did collect the profits at 40 because
the needle moves so fast and it expired
at 80. again this verticals kind of
follow ax options and how they do things
and I don't want to give away their
secret sauce I'd highly encourage you
join their group I've learned a lot from
them and they're a great group of people
and no I'm not being paid to say that
um but their methodology is they
typically take profit at about 50
percent and it's actually a pretty solid
methodology as you can see
A6 butterfly not a good day for the
butterfly you can see it's right here so
our normal was negative 700 again I do
get better with the butterflies as we go
on and I actually stop these out much
sooner as this whole experiment moves on
but it did expire for 214.
um butterflies have a huge huge drop off
here I hate that
iron Condor not challenged I mean normal
and expired 43 bucks did not stop out
there's been not a whole lot to say
there
uh sonar was getting challenged towards
the end but I wrote it right into
profitability for a positive 140 on
normal and expired you can see how it's
right right right at that edge where
it's going to be challenged again sonar
trades are in the day so you got to be
kind of careful and vertical you know
another good day for verticals uh I took
profit at 90 when the market started
getting weird at the end of the day
but it did expire for 103 dollars
looking at day seven butterflies off to
a strong start here you can see it was
slightly off not a pin but probably
about 50 percent of the way to a pen uh
normal was uh for 543 dollars with the
expired of 895. you know the drill I saw
profit took profit and then if I just
let it ride it would have been 895 did
not stop did expire
iron Condor really didn't even get
challenged but it did get off center
here for normal profit of 48. yeah I
actually took it when it started going
off center uh just in case and it
expired at 50 I mean that two dollar
profits negligible
and sonar almost dead center I love it
when it does it I mean look at that
thing right dead center there 100 profit
now you may be asking yourself days like
today with that pink line what does that
mean so look at this where it says 1602
what happens is at 1600 or 4 pm Eastern
Standard Time that blue line is what
matters the most and then overnight SPX
will quote unquote settle meaning if
it's within our profit tent you get the
full profit so normal was 60 expired
with 95 did not stop did expire out
and vertical I hate to be repetitive but
another text but vertical where we took
50 profit and we let it expire out at
ninety dollars uh did not stop and did
expire on honestly I really
textbook vertical day it was actually a
pretty boring trade
day eight butterfly
um kind of the same story it was headed
towards the middle and then it kind of
shot off to the side so I took profit
when I could and I'm glad I did because
it made more money than when it expired
so the real question becomes how do you
know when to take profit and how do you
know when to just let it run I have my
own personal philosophies on that for a
butterfly I would not let it expire even
though you're going to see the numbers
just be you know amazing for butterflies
in the system when it comes to just
firing and forgetting it but that's
because you're risking so much money me
personally I don't like to risk money so
I take profit when I see it
iron Condor again the profit on these is
so minimal I've actually thought about
retooling these so the profit margin is
bigger but it expired I'm sorry the
normal 22 it expired with 32 dollars did
not stop did expire almost dead center
in that condor
sonar uh slightly off center but still a
great trade uh normal of 82 dollars and
expired of 85 so you may be going well
why do you take this at 82 if it expired
85 you got to remember this is going
down like minutes before the market
closes and you don't know what that
green line is going to do I mean it's
starting to go that way so I want to
capture that profit before it really
starts going into this magenta curve
here because that's when you start
losing money very rapidly and if you go
to get out of the trade even if it's
like right here you're still going to
take a loss
you want to be very careful about that
because this little red line right here
that's your break even so if it's moving
towards that red line you want to be
very cautious
and let's see the day 8 vertical started
to really get right at that point
where it was going to start challenging
it and that was making me a little
nervous
however normal 100 you can tell that it
started sliding back and I took the
profit and expired at 110 did not stop
did expire
butterfly again kind of off center here
about the 50 Mark normal profit 500
expired 591 saw profit took profit
um Iron Condor normal 30 expired 42 dead
center in The Condor I love those dead
center days where you're just a zero
risk
um a lot of people look at that number
and think man that is so low why even
bother with it but remember if you take
multiple contracts that can go up
exponentially based off your buying
power
and of course sonar um slightly off
center normal 80 expired 105. you can
see I'm getting better and better at
sonars as this goes on we're at day nine
we're already seeing win after win after
win so that's actually very encouraging
to me at that point
and then vertical again I mean just
sounding like a broken record not even
at that pink line yet so wasn't really
challenged I had already cashed out long
before then but it expired at a hundred
dollars
um
the goal of this software is to make
trading boring to be honest with you I
think it's actually starting to get to
that point
day 10 similar story butterfly took
profit at 6 30 expired at 688 you can
tell it was kind of sliding against me
um you'll also notice with the butterfly
you see this pink profit line is not
within the blue profit ton I've often
wondered that so I did some research and
I don't know how accurate this is but
that actually exists based off of the
metrics inside of the options chain so
for example if the price screen line
suddenly dropped right here there would
be a few moments or a few minutes where
that pink line would hold right there
but then you'd see it shift very rapidly
and I've actually watched it on the
screen do that so if there's some way to
capture that I would actually start
coding towards it I just haven't wrapped
my head around it yet
um Iron Condors similar story and
they're very boring forty dollars versus
fifty three dollars
um it was not even really starting to
get challenged but it was a little off
center
and sonar uh this one got a little scary
right towards the end not gonna lie uh
normal 95 expired 95 meaning I wrote it
all the way to expiration that day
um you can see this pink line how it's
really skewed that way uh meaning that
that's the way the price was going is
really ripping up fast and it was going
to be very hard to stop that out if it
went beyond my bounds and if I zoom in I
mean you can see just how close it is
right at that magenta line where it's
just starting to threaten this thing
personally that close to the edge that's
threatening to me because I have a small
account
and vertical vertical absolutely got
threatened this time around look it's
like right there the pinks over here and
it's just like hello
um
that's super scary because when you got
these verticals you get too far beyond
this and you're literally just falling
off a cliff into the negative
so we had cashed that out early at 42
dollars and it expired at 68
um
the goal of this like I said is to make
trading boring and that was not a boring
day at all
okay butterfly day 11 negative 125
normal negative 125 expired
um I really struggled with this day I'll
admit it it just it started slamming
against me and I just said you know what
I didn't think it was gonna recoup so I
just cut my losses and I'm kind of glad
I did
um I just said I'm done see a butterfly
admittedly it's not really a great test
to what the butterfly can do but it's is
what it is for that day
uh condor
uh thirty seven dollars and thirty seven
dollars so it was perfectly fine
and sonar big big Miss on Sonar um this
is why stop losses are key normal took a
negative 138 expired took a full loss of
negative 420. this is what I mean by
a full loss on a sonar trade is not
great but of course losing money sucks
in any language so we would have to make
you know three to four trades
successfully to recoup that loss that's
why stop loss especially condors and
butterflies is critical
vertical
um of course I mean just look at that I
mean right there right there right there
right at the break even that is so
frustrating
um but normal we actually collected 75
bucks it was over here and then the
price slammed against me very rapidly
um so we're glad we collected when we
did because the market expired at a
negative 62. this I think is really a
testament to
uh how professional Traders like enacts
options in advance learn with by the
Numbers how they actually do things
because when they see their profit limit
they just take it they don't wait for
something like this to happen
all right day 12 a new day uh butterfly
635 dollars where the expiration was
1035 I mean look at that beautiful right
there almost I want to say about 80 way
to pinning it
um I would love to be able to figure out
how to pin a butterfly every single time
I just don't think it'll happen in my
lifetime
uh iron Condor 40 and 45 I did cut my
loss a little bit early because the
market was getting a little bit weird
sonar you can see where the the
weirdness started whenever I do these
sonars I car kind of I call it drift
where it was about right here is where I
thought the market was going to close
and you can see I mean as as amazing as
it is that it's that close it's still a
bit further off than I felt comfortable
it was starting to really hit that
magenta line where things would have
gotten bad very rapidly
uh but in either case it was 85 and 85
so profit day all around
vertical
again we took our profit at 50 so 32
dollars and expired at 65. so another
textbook vertical day
all right day 13 butterfly
um we were 527 profit we cashed out glad
we did because it expired at negative
820. this is a perfect example of why I
personally would not run a butterfly to
expiration because this kind of crap
happens all the time where a butterfly
will be in the positive and usually in
this system it's about 300 400 in the
positive and then suddenly it becomes
negative so you try to collect those
profits when you can
iron Condor it did normal and expired at
50 but you can see this got very scary
for Condors I mean just a
fraction above a move more and we would
have been looking at some loss not a fun
day for a condor
sonar
um yeah did not have fun with sonar
luckily I did cash this out when I
started seeing the market move remember
sonars are manual trade so I construct
them and I sit there and watch them uh
got 50 bucks out of it but then the
market ripped up and I lost 391 just the
nature of condors
and vertical yeah magic eight ball is
not perfect it gets the direction of the
market wrong and in that case it stopped
out at negative 175 very early on and I
I think it expired at 4 35 but I think
when it stopped out it was actually
still in the profit 10 it was like right
in here somewhere and I just went
goodbye
it is what it is I'm trying to improve
the software and nothing's perfect but
you know again compared to where this
was a year ago it is vastly vastly
improved
all right day 14 butterfly
um it did move against us very rapidly
first thing in the morning stopped it
out at negative 420 you can see I'm
starting to get better at stopping this
out at a lower number
um but then it shot back up and expired
out at 237 super frustrating when that
happens I agree but it's just part of
trading
uh Condor same thing Condor actually got
stopped out you can see it was a
negative 40 uh expired at 40. so it was
just one of those days where I was like
I'm not taking a condor to full loss I'm
stopping this out and then the market
turned around and well went the way we
wanted it to
um we'll see here sonar uh 80 profit 80
expired and it just worked I mean sonar
just kind of became one of my favorite
trades around this time of the
experiment because I was getting very
comfortable with them and I don't know
if you've noticed but I've also started
making these a little bit wider for
slightly less premium so for these
Condors I've been shooting for about 80
to 90 premium instead of uh 120 or 110.
and vertical actually did stop out you
can see how it took a negative 150 but
it expired for 90. super frustrating it
went out here and then right back again
it's just part of trading
all right day 15 butterfly
um we're talking a normal profit of 300
and expired at 399 we got kind of lucky
that day you can see how it's kind of
teetering towards the edge
normal 40 expired 40 for the iron Condor
you can see it was kind of starting to
threaten it a little bit but not enough
that I really felt the need to jump out
of there
sonar started to get a little scary but
of course normal 85 expired 85 love
those days where it's in that I call it
the 75 range where it's in there where
I'm not feeling too scared to the point
I stop it out
and vertical absolutely zero risk of
this thing stopping but I did collect
profit at 50 just because I was feeling
a little uneasy with the market based
off the butterfly however it expired at
full profit with 88 dollars
um
I personally I'm really torn between
verticals or sonar trades even though
sonars are just iron condors and I'm
thinking about retooling the giant iron
Condors to be a bit smaller to collect
more premium but they will of course
impact the accuracy it's kind of a
trade-off I haven't decided yet
butterfly day 16 a normal profit of 330
and expired at 522. you can see this is
where even though it's taken me half a
month I started finding my groove with
butterflies and I was starting to
collect profit around the 300 range and
if it started to dip down into the
negative I tried to cut it at negative
300 but uh expired at 522 pretty
I want to say pretty common for
butterflies where it'll start going up
and then start going back it's just the
ebb and flow of the market
Condor 5050 a good day for the Condor I
mean really not a lot else to say there
uh sonar dead center absolutely loved it
I mean look at that I mean you couldn't
make that more Center I was super proud
of myself however whenever you can get
cocky the market will humble you very
quickly so you gotta be careful I did
take profit at 75 it expired at 115.
vertical uh normal 45 profit so we
collected 50 and expired at 78 you know
you see the market did exactly what we
thought it was going to do and life was
good
day 17 this was a scary day for the
butterfly I took the profit at 330 you
notice how I'm starting to Target about
a 300 profit on the butterflies and it
expired at 52 bucks so we had profit and
then the market said see ya and we're
kind of glad we collected still was a
positive but I mean you can see just how
stinking close that was to go into the
negative
um yeah you got to be super careful with
that because the market can just make
you cry very quickly
uh iron Condor uh 50 50 not a lot to say
just another successful iron Condor day
sonar another dead center sonar you
notice this one is a little smaller
um the market for whatever reason when I
took this trade
was not really giving me good option
fills is it am I saying that right
option fills premium and you'll also
notice that I took a higher premium I'm
down here at 110.
um this could have gone against me very
rapidly so this honestly was probably
luck which is why I took profit at 75 it
expired at 115.
vertical again took a 50 profit it
expired full profit at 78. I mean just
rinse and repeat with the verticals just
make money and print it print it print
it
day 18. yeah I think I said earlier once
you get cocky the market will humble you
this was that day uh it stopped out at
negative 400 so it stopped out around
here and the market just said adios and
whoop off it went for a full
full loss on that expired butterfly that
is a painful loss fortunately
by then the system had made enough
profitable butterflies it wasn't super
painful
iron Condor did start to get challenged
but normal and expired full profit
sonar
that one got scary uh sonar actually
stopped out at negative 100 but expired
back in profit 80. I think if I remember
right this actually like shot way up and
then at the last minute drop back down
but it already stopped me out
and vertical I mean this was just an
amazing vertical I put it on collected
it 50 expired 72 I could have just let
my Runner run and just watched it into
the bank
okay butterfly day 19 normal 300 expired
431 you know so I'm really starting to
just collect profit around 300. learn my
lessons with butterflies by this point
and I don't like them making me cry iron
Condors absolutely not threatened at all
just a normal Condor day that is a weird
weird way of looking at it it's a normal
Condor day to win I mean these have such
an amazing accuracy because they're so
big that I'm very confident that most of
these Condors win
uh sonar dead center another great sonar
day 50 profit actually more than 50
profit and an expired out of 80.
um I'm actually at this point in the
experiment getting very comfortable
constructing these sonar trades
vertical uh was not comfortable with
that vertical so I took the profit and
ran it expired at 85 but you can see
that very very easily could have gone
against me and you were right at that
threshold
I call that the Fun Zone you don't want
to be in the Fun Zone
butterflies for day 20 uh 527 profits
was actually over in here and then the
market said goodbye and went down to
negative 800 by expiration so again see
profit take profit I know you hear a lot
of the professionals say that and that
is exactly why right there if you're
greeting you hold this thing you could
very easily lose all that profit you
would have made
iron Condors not really challenged but
moving into the direction of being
cautious normal 40 expired 40.
sonar
this one made me mad not gonna lie I
thought I made the perfect sonar and the
market said today's the day little buddy
and it decided to Humble me stopped out
at negative 100 and it expired at seven
dollars not even joking seven dollars I
mean come on
ah anyways
vertical uh another great vertical day I
just rode this one all the way to the
bank
um 53.53 and you can see it was not even
remotely challenged
um
I'm trying to get a real good feel for
when to run these to full profit I
haven't quite figured it out yet but I'm
just starting to get a gut feel and
watching the market
day 21 butterfly again we took profit
around 350 so it was over in this range
and it dropped down and expired at 125.
um butterflies have a habit of betraying
me so I'm getting better at collecting
the profit
iron Condor I mean dead center I mean
that is like a beautiful Condor I mean
you could just go watch a movie and come
back there's zero threat to this thing
I wouldn't do that but you know what I
mean you could do that uh sonar was
starting to get threatened you can
definitely tell by the profit curve here
that the market was going down but
regardless full profit of 90 expired of
90. and vertical again you can just sit
back and relax and watch the money print
into your bank account however I did
take a 50 profit and watch it expire at
65.
day 22 butterfly I I mean they say a
picture's worth a thousand words in this
case it was worth about fifteen hundred
dollars uh I collected profit at 300 and
then just sat here and watched it pin
and was like man I wish I knew it was
going to do that but uh I mean what can
you say butterflies are like that
iron Condor another full profit day for
the iron Condor 40 and 40. uh what more
can you say it's just making money
sonar um sonars again
50 profit took Profit just over 50 and
expired at 75.
um getting very comfortable with sonars
at this point I'm not like gonna say
I've mastered them but you notice the 80
premiums rather than the one or the 110
are actually making way more money
because they're getting stopped out less
verticals right at the edge of concern
but I did write it to the end of day
why did I write it to the end of the day
I don't know to be honest with you I
should have cashed out at 50 but it made
full profit so I'm not going to complain
day 23 butterfly uh normal and expired
559 uh this was a very calm day so I
just rode that butterfly to expiration
admittedly a poor choice I should have
just cashed it out of 300 but that extra
200 does help
um again I I you got to watch your risk
management this is not Financial advice
but in the real world you should take
profit and you stop loss
iron Condor 40 and 40 another boring
iron Condor day sonar this got exciting
towards the end of the day you see I did
cut it at 90. I mean it was right here
and that market started moving and I
said nope cut it and took the 90 profit
however it did expire for 100 got lucky
and vertical
um
took the 65 profit watched the price go
here and then slam back and it expired
at 100 but I thought for sure that was
going to slam back further so that was
an interesting day for the vertical
all right day 24 butterfly again I did
something very foolish I ran that
butterfly to expiration but it was a
profitable day again risk Management's
key don't do that even though I got
lucky
iron Condor normal and expired 78.78 a
very boring iron Condor day
uh sonar 105 and 105 I you know sonars
are just iron Condors so it was pretty
boring one thing to note on this one is
the premium was 110 and you see how big
this Condor is compared to the other
sonars if I remember right volatility
was up a little higher and I took this
trade a little bit earlier
vertical just you know fire and forget
but the vertical out there and just ran
it to full expiration worked pretty good
you'll notice the premium I'm collecting
is about 1 to 110 and usually not today
but usually I take about 50 profit very
in line with it what ax options does I
don't want to steal their magic or their
Thunder they are way better than I am
admittedly I just wrote the software and
I let the software do the thinking for
me that being said
I'm interested to see the long-term
results of verticals versus the sonar
trades because I think the sonar trades
are winning slightly more and collecting
a little bit more profit
day 25 yeah you ever have one of those
days where everything just works yeah
that was not day 25. you can see we took
our profit at 380 and boy am I glad we
did because it expired at the full loss
of negative 2000 that is a super painful
loss for butterfly
watching your bank account divvy down to
by 2000 is not fun so very glad we took
profit on that
iron Condor this
this would have made people cry if they
were in a real trade so it stopped out
at negative 90. this is why you use your
stops it would have been a 10 times loss
if you ran that expiration running an
iron Condor to full expiration on a loss
or I should say running it to a full
loss that's a death sentence for your
bank account to be honest with you
um and there wasn't much you could do
I'm really glad that stopped out the way
it's supposed to
sonar also stopped out and expired at
the full loss of 410 I think if I
remember correctly what happened here is
the market was very
um fluctuating back and forth and then
towards the end of the day it just
dropped hard and fast and no one could
do anything about it verticals however
just did not care vertical
vertical peeps you out there were just
sitting back with a coffee or a whiskey
whatever you're drinking and just
watching your money print
um not even remotely close to being
challenged the actual edge of the
vertical dropped off this little radar
here just whooped right off to the side
no worries whatsoever
but of course we followed our rules 35
profit expired for 50.
Day 26 could not be the polar opposite
of the day before we took profit at 261
because I was a little shell-shocked
from the day before and of course the
butterfly almost pins at twelve hundred
dollars
uh iron Condor nothing to worry about
there 42-42
slightly off center not a big deal uh
sonar same thing 90 90 for the profit
slightly off center really not even
worried about it vertical again 92 92
uh kind of at that point where I was
getting a little concerned but it just
kept kind of bouncing right in this
range and didn't go much further back
day 27 butterflies
um normal profit of 340. again I'm
shooting for about 300 profit per trade
and expired I'm pretty much at Penn at
12.89 I mean you couldn't really get too
much closer to pin on that one it was
right there
[Music]
um
really got to figure out how to pin
those consistently iron Condors no
worries 43 and 43 it just it was an easy
day sonar uh started to worry a little
bit you can see how the price was
starting to move against me but
regardless ran at the full expiration
for 100 and expired at 100.
and vertical
um really didn't care I took the 50
profit which is way over 50 because the
market was doing this all day but then
when it started moving back against me I
said nope took the money and ran it
still expired full profit at 60.
day 28
um butterfly normal 320 profit again
almost pinned at 1230 I mean
man that's the stuff that dreams are
made out of right there
um I would love to say the software got
vastly more intelligence toward the end
of this but honestly it was just the
market was much calmer and it was blind
luck
iron Condors you can see dead center
well close to dead center 4343 for
profits no worries there in condorland
sonar also almost dead center if you
look at the profit curve the time and
profit it is let me just slightly off
dead center
for normal of 110 and expired of 110.
just a great money making day and
vertical you know no worries there took
the profit at 50 expired at 68.
8 29 day before the end of the
experiment and oh that was a rough start
to the day that butterfly took a stop of
negative 300 and expired at negative
543. so this is what I mean by the
software did not magically become better
the market was just calmer
uh iron Condor was right at that point
where I think it was going to start to
become challenged and too much further
and I would have considered just
collecting profit
but we took the full 52 dollar profit
and it expired at 52.
sonar I did collect profit at 90 because
like I said the market was acting a
little weird and expired at 115.
vertical
I love verticals it just did not care
what the market did however I collected
my profit at 50 and expired for the full
70.
day 30 uh our last day frustrating day
for butterflies it stopped out at
negative 300 so it was actually over
here somewhere and then snapped back
down for a 402 profit ah that is
frustrating but what can you do
Condors not really threatened at all 48
profit for both normal and expired
and sonar this one was nervous I wanted
a good ending so admittedly I gambled I
mean really really gambled look at how
close we are to falling off that cliff
should not have done that but I wanted a
good ending to the story for sonars and
we had a happy ending of 80 for normal
and expired
articles again ah this was frustrating
for me so it did stop out at negative
117 but then expired in profit for 57 so
this line went Whoopsie Daisy stopped
out and then slammed back uh
anyways that's the end of our journey
these trades have been fairly
educational for me and I hope they've
been educational for you as well